Bulldogs vs the Lions playing list?

[Sunshine]

I watched last nights game between the Lions and the Cats with a Lions friend who couldn't attend the game.
He is a very astute football watcher and while he loves watching the Dogs he say that we will never really challenge for a flag and in fact rates the Lions list as potentially better than the Dogs list in the next two years.
There was 4 parts to his logic about the Lions
1) the Lions have drafted three quality young talls in Wood, Clark and Leuenberger (plus have Mills and Brennan)
2) all the game time that the Lions have pumped into the likes of Sherman, Selwood, Drummond, Moody and Patful
3) that Power and Black still have at least 4 more years of top footy ahead of them
4) that Brown and Bradshaw are a potent forward line
He acknowledged that they need to find some defenders.
His observations of the Dogs is that the list is
1) the list is to midfield orientated although he acknowledges the quality of Griffen, Cooney, Ray and Higgins.
2) lack of quality talls with little depth
3) that the best footy was behind Johnson, West, Grant, Darcy, Eagleton and even Aker
4) that we have no real players that can take a game by the scruff of the neck like Brown and even Bradshaw.
Overall he thinks we will be in the top 6 for the next two seasons but because of the way the Lions have cleaned house with their veterans and they fact that they tend to draft the guys with the stronger bodies will get them back to a serious contender in a couple of years.

Is that a fair observation?

[bulldogtragic]

Depends on Williams, Tiller, Walsh, Darcy, Wight, Harris, Everitt, West, Pask, Skipper.

Also depends on whether the Lions can keep up with the pace of the game. We were very poor last week, but if we or other teams fleet of foot can run them off their feet, i think their not so dangerous. Our record against them the last few years ain't too bad.

[W W Biscuit]

That's Golden,

I laugh. Some people never fail to be sucked in by the glitz and glamour of practice match form. Your friend's optimism is surely fuelled by a couple of pre-season showings and not by the last six games that the Lions have played for premiership points - all of which they lost by an average total of 51 points.

Anyhow, here are just a few points that you might be able to use in this debate:

• The three quality talls mentioned have played 14 games between them - Cameron Wood has played 8 games, Mitchell Clark 6 and Matthew Leuenberger 0. Wade Mills has played only 4 games. Let’s not get too carried away. The Bulldogs have their own highly prized young talls. The fact that Tim Walsh and Tom Williams have barely made it onto the park shows just how speculative footy can be. Of the prospects mentioned, there should only be JUSTIFIED excitement about Brennan – if he ever gets his head together for any length of time.

• Brisbane have supposedly pumped game time into their young players. Using five Bulldog players whose combined ages is actually younger than those Lions mentioned, the statistics just do not support your friend’s argument. In fact, the figures heavily suggest the opposite:

BRISBANE
Justin Sherman: Age – 20, Games – 41, 2006 Disposals - 487
Troy Selwood: Age -22, Games – 33, 2006 Disposals - 223
Josh Drummond: Age 23, Games – 21, 2006 Disposals - 111
Joel Patfull: Age – 22, Games – 15, 2006 Disposals - 129
Matthew Moody: Age – 21, Games – 25, 2006 Disposals - 278

BULLDOGS
Adam Cooney: Age 21, Games – 65, 2006 Disposals - 458
Ryan Griffen: Age 20, Games – 41, 2006 Disposals - 411
Daniel Cross: Age 23, Games – 70, 2006 Disposals - 625
Farren Ray: Age - 20, Games - 42, 2006 Disposals - 370
Jordan McMahon: Age - 23, Games - 96, 2006 Disposals – 457


• Simon Black and Luke Power are great players. So what? Every team has great players. Even Carlton. The question is - how many have you got??? Does your list fall away badly after your top ten, or even your top four? This, I believe, has been St. Kilda’s undoing over the past three years. Anyway, if I selected two of the Bulldogs’ high quality, experienced performers and used their age as a key indicator of likely future output, here’s what I might get:

BRISBANE
Simon Black: Age 27, turning 28 by Round 2 this season
Luke Power: Age 27

BULLDOGS
Lindsay Gilbee: Age 25
Robert Murphy: Age 24


• Blind Freddy could see that Brad Johnson and Scott West were not past their best in 2006. We are talking about the All-Australian captain and the Brownlow Medal runner-up. Both players were as good as ever – Johnson actually seems to be getting better each year. Aker? Well, he hasn’t even set foot on the park yet. We have very little to lose from this deal I would have thought. He is a proven champion. Even if he IS past his best – and this is highly speculative – his presence in our team is definitely an addition, not a subtraction. Eagleton? He is less than six months older than Simon Black – who apparently has four good years left. Darcy’s worth is unknown. We have not had the benefit of his services for nearly two years. Again, I think that any worthwhile contribution from him is definitely an addition. Grant is obviously on the way out, and he WILL leave a hole.

• Jonathan Brown is a champion, but he has missed a combined total of one season in the last two. A star if he can regain fitness, it must be doubtful whether his body can withstand the dominating style of play that is his trademark. Dermott Brereton was knackered by his mid-to-late twenties. Brown is 26 this year. Bradshaw? Personally, I am not much of a fan – a mindset that is borne from having him in my Dreamteam for the last couple of years. He can have shocking runs of poor form. Last year his first seven games netted just six goals. Granted, he is capable of a lot better, but he is nothing more than a good – not a great - player whose valuable games are outnumbered by his useless ones by at least a ratio of 3:1. To say that he is a match-winner, and that – for instance – Brad Johnson is not – is probably a funnier statement than you will see in a whole series of The Simpsons.

All in all, I would be very surprised if we did not defeat Brisbane at the GABBA this year by a healthy margin. I refuse to be seduced by the pre-season cup, where any team with the requisite focus, intensity and commitment to playing most of its best players can look like a million dollars. I'm pretty sure that first round losers like West Coast and Sydney aren't worried. I can't see Brisbane making any progress up the ladder at all this year. The facts do not match the romance.

[bornadog]

W W Biscuit, well summed up that is a great posting.

I heard Matthews on SEN the other day and he said, other than Lappin, the team that played the dogs last week was the best midfield side he could hope for this year and acknolwedged that our midfield was missing at least 5 of our best.

[Griffen#16]

Brisbane haven't "blooded" many kids at all. They have a lot of players in that 20-23 bracket that have only played between 10-30 odd games. All of our young players - Minson, Cooney, Griffen, Ray, Cross, Boyd etc - are all of a similar age, but have played a lot more matches.

Interesting comparison he makes, but I find it a little off the mark. I'd much rather our list than theirs, to put it bluntly.

[alwaysadog]

W W Biscuit, well summed up that is a great posting.

Couldn't agree more and such forceful logic, passion and even cited Bind Freddy. Go WWB: go Dogs.

[firstdogonthemoon]

thanks WWB I feel much better now