Tour de France 09

[Chops]

Starts in 3 days
Cadel Evans' teammate has just been done for EPO. His chances of winning are going to be tough.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/sport/tourdefrance/evans-teammate-tests-positive/2009/07/02/1246127587360.html

[Mantis]

Can't wait.

Going to be many a late night sitting up watching the mountain stages.

Best international sporting event of the year.

[bornadog]

Can't wait.

Going to be many a late night sitting up watching the mountain stages.

Best international sporting event of the year.

Yes, I really love it. Lets hope Cadel can go one step better. The Spanish will be hard to beat.

[Sockeye Salmon]

Yes, I really love it. Lets hope Cadel can go one step better. The Spanish will be hard to beat.

On the plus side, hopefully

1) he'll get a bit more support in the hills from his teammates (he'll hardly get any less).
2) he'll keep the rubber bits between him and the road for the entire tour this year
3) Armstrong is going to get all the publicity this year. Cadel didn't handle it well last year.


On the debit side

Alberto Contador is back
Levi Liepheimer is back
Carlos Sastre will be there again
The Schenk brothers will be there again and the younger one is going to be better.

[bornadog]

On the plus side, hopefully

1) he'll get a bit more support in the hills from his teammates (he'll hardly get any less).
2) he'll keep the rubber bits between him and the road for the entire tour this year
3) Armstrong is going to get all the publicity this year. Cadel didn't handle it well last year.


On the debit side

Alberto Contador is back
Levi Liepheimer is back
Carlos Sastre will be there again
The Schenk brothers will be there again and the younger one is going to be better.

Cadels biggest problem has been the support from his team. I haven't really seen his team this year, but with at least two out due to drugs ( including the German earlier in the year), hope they are strong enough to get him home.

[Hot_Doggies]

Contador first, daylight second.

It would be a huge effort for Cadel to finish on the podium 3 yrs running.

[Glove38]

Can't wait for this.

Anyone been down to the warehouse sale in Tulla?

[GVGjr]

Day 1 results:

1. Fabian Cancellara Team Saxo Bank in 19:32
2. Alberto Contador Astana in 19:50 at 00.18
3. Bradley Wiggins Garmin - Slipstream in 19:51 at 00:19
4. Andréas Kloden Astana in 19:54 at 00:22
5. Cadel Evans Silence - Lotto in 19:55 at 00:23
6. Levi Leipheimer Astana in 20:02 at 00:30
7. Roman Kreuziger Liquigas in 20:04 at 00:32
8. Tony Martin Team Columbia - Htc in 20:05 at 00:33
9. Vincenzo Nibali Liquigas in 20:09 at 00:37
10. Lance Armstrong Astana in 20:12 at 00:40

[Mantis]

Good start by Cadel. Although Contador & the Astana team look strong and I think Cadel's chances will be shot after the Team TT. Astana have 4 riders in side the top 10, Cadel's team (Silence Lotto) have just 3 inside the top 100.

Cancellera was a moral to win the TT. Big surprise was Dennis Menchov having a shocker and is almost out of the running.

[Chops]

With 4 placegetters Astana look like CSC of last year.
I heard the stats about Contador. Won the tour by 30 or so seconds, the Guelta and Giro also by low margins and time bonuses.
If he wins, it won't be by much.
Also Evans needs a number of contenders from different teams to help him out, if 1 team like Astana gang up on him again, he is no chance.

[Chops]

The other Aussie Rogers has almost conceded he won't win now. Usually a very good time trialer but he lost 1:13 on the prologue because he dropped his chain twice.

[BulldogBelle]

Always look forward to watching the Tour De France, especially the mountain stages. So quite a few late nights coming up for me. A couple of friends of mine who are right into the cycling and big Lance Armstrong fans have flown over to follow the tour close up.

[bornadog]

http://i202.photobucket.com/albums/aa198/mmsalih/tour.jpg

[Mantis]

Interesting that Armstrong gained about 40secs on Contador, Evans and the rest of the GC riders in last nights stage.

Not sure how tactics played out to allow this to happen, but one must think that Armstrong isn't seen as a major threat.

[Raw Toast]

Big night, though I didn't stay up to see it - those winds can be very tricky and some claim that it was Contador that lossed the wheel that caused the break, Evans is normally in the right places for things like that, so he'll be a bit upset.

In some ways I don't mind that Armstrong made it and almost no one else - I hate almost all of Astana (except Kloden for some reason) and reckon the only way they can stuff it up is if things go really sour between Contador and Armstrong. It's got potential to be as bad as the last Tour that Armstrong competed in when Vinikurov made what could have been a defining break, only for his supposed team-mate Ullrich to bring Armstrong back to him (something the Schleck's were careful to avoid last year when Sastre made the break).

The team time trial is now very important, and for Silence-Lotto it's just about minimising the loss. Even if they have a bad one however, there's still a heap of racing to go in this one. The second last stage looks a cracker, especially coming after a time-trial where riders have to work out how much to leave in the tank for the climb...

[Raw Toast]

Interesting that Armstrong gained about 40secs on Contador, Evans and the rest of the GC riders in last nights stage.

Not sure how tactics played out to allow this to happen, but one must think that Armstrong isn't seen as a major threat.

I don't think the break-away was just let go at all - Saxo-Bank was furious, Evans grumpy, and I reckon most of Astana pretty disgruntled as well, whereas Columbia was over the moon from the reading I've done this morning.

They went round a corner and the wind changed to a cross-wind where apparently only those at the front get wind assistance and if someone following loses a wheel then a big gap is created, and that's what happened. Armstrong was gloating at the end of it all apparently.

[Mantis]

As I expected Silence Lotto were blown off the park in the Team TT and Cadel's chances look over. He gave up huge amounts of time (2'35") to Contador and really will have to ride out of his skin if he has any chance of catching him and others.

The leaderboard which reads poorly (all the same teams represented) at present has Cadel down in 35th position almost 3 minutes behind the leader.

[Chops]

Rogers looks more likely to win than Evans. Rogers is 16th at 1:32 behind. Consider he lost 1:13 on the prologue and 0:59 last night.

[bornadog]

If Cadel wants to get back into this race, he will have to completely change his tactics and start attacking.

I wonder if Contador is starting to get pissed off with Lance?

[Sockeye Salmon]

As I expected Silence Lotto were blown off the park in the Team TT and Cadel's chances look over. He gave up huge amounts of time (2'35") to Contador and really will have to ride out of his skin if he has any chance of catching him and others.

The leaderboard which reads poorly (all the same teams represented) at present has Cadel down in 35th position almost 3 minutes behind the leader.

Cadel really has a crap team.

HTF does a professional rider earning megabucks fall off going in a straight line?

[Mantis]

If Cadel wants to get back into this race, he will have to completely change his tactics and start attacking.

If the Astana team work together it won't matter how many attacks Cadel makes as they will all be covered.

I wonder if Contador is starting to get pissed off with Lance?

I wouldn't mind being a fly on the wall in the Astana team bus as this tour proceeds.

[Raw Toast]

A bad night for Evans, but not as bad as I thought it would be - they lost about 1:30 more than they should have (but actually rode very well apart from those three incidents), but when I went to bed half-way through their ride I thought they might lose 4 or 5 minutes.

Astana are even clearer favourites now - they have an amazing team, with 4 riders who have all finished on the podium and could all ride GC for a team if they wanted. Rogers said it was the strongest team ever and he's probably right (and at the start of the race Armstrong said there are only eight riders who could win it, and Astana have four of them).

But I still think their strength might turn into a weakness in a couple of ways. Firstly, unless Armstrong just rides for Contador, the team is going to have split loyalties (I'm sure Leipheimer, and Popovich [?] will support Lance, while Kloden and some others are likely to stay with Alberto). And the other teams might start all working together against Astana as well.

I reckon Evans' best bet is to try and work with Saxo-Bank and maybe even Columbia. Astana are very strong, but with possibly two leaders to protect, they'll still be vulnerable to multiple attacks, and Saxo-Bank in particular are capable of creating a bit of havoc, and their diretor Riis is probably the best tactician of them all. In a situation like that, Evans will have a chance while all the others cause distractions. That said, if Armstrong really does ride for Contador in the mountains, then that'll make it incredibly hard for anyone else to win it.

I think this Friday's stage is huge - Armstrong tends to be at his most vulnerable early on in the mountains, and not only is the first big mountain stage, I think this is the only mountain-top finish until the second last stage. Evans tends to ride better in the Pyrenees so he'll have a chance to get a bit back here. Of course he will have to attack, but he'll still need to choose his moments with care.

Rogers is in a good position, but he's said a few times in the last few days that he's riding for Kim Kirchen, and he's been working really hard for Cavendish as well. I think he'll try and attack a bit in the early mountains, but don't think he'll have the legs to be a contender.

[Raw Toast]

The other thing about Friday's stage, is that Armstrong will be in yellow if he can finish with the rest of the contenders, and this will make things really interesting re Astana and who leads the team.

[Raw Toast]

And on a final note from this morning, this piece in today's Age is interesting re the Astana dynamics - didn't realise the Spanish were already spitting chips about Lance, and the tour's about to head into Spain :)
http://www.theage.com.au/news/sport/tourdefrance/tactics-may-split-team/2009/07/07/1246732331642.html

[BulldogBelle]

Cadel really has a crap team.

Big time, very dissapointing finish in the TT's for Silence Lotto - wil be difficult for Evans now.

[Mantis]

I think this Friday's stage is huge - Armstrong tends to be at his most vulnerable early on in the mountains, and not only is the first big mountain stage, I think this is the only mountain-top finish until the second last stage. Evans tends to ride better in the Pyrenees so he'll have a chance to get a bit back here. Of course he will have to attack, but he'll still need to choose his moments with care.



Should be a ripper and will be the first of many late nights as the real tour begins.

This will be the first time that we will get a feel for the tactics the Astana team will employ so it will be very interesting to see how the stage unfolds.

[Raw Toast]

Should be a ripper and will be the first of many late nights as the real tour begins.

This will be the first time that we will get a feel for the tactics the Astana team will employ so it will be very interesting to see how the stage unfolds.

Yep, I'm hoping it's going to be a great night both before and during the race.

I watched last night's stage as I had some work to do, and Astana took control of the peleton for awhile, and together with Saxo Bank tried to get another split happening - they were successful for awhile, but must have felt they didn't get enough big names off (Menchov was the only real contender) and so eased up. But it was a show of power, and it seemed to me they'll be trying to intimidate everyone else - I don't think the rest are as easy to intimidate now however (they were during the last few Armstrong years), so hopefully they'll still have a fight on their hands.

[Raw Toast]

The riders of the Tour are always under a cloud re drugs, but they're still incredibly tough - the Duthman Robert Gesink, in his first tour, rode strongly for around 80ks yesterday after suffering a fall, and almost made it back onto the peleton only to see it rush away, and he came in quite a few minutes down.

Scans after he finished showed he'd broken his wrist in the fall, and he's now withdrawn from the tour - I can't imagine riding 5kms at speed with a freshly broken wrist, let alone 80kms!

[Sockeye Salmon]

What about going downhill through the Alps at 100km/h (so fast the officials and TV cameramen can't keep up in their cars), with a drop off on one side, wearing nothing lycra, shoes and a bike helmet.

I'm amazed the lycra can hold the goolies in, they must all have 'em the size of watermelons.

[Mantis]

Rogers looks more likely to win than Evans. Rogers is 16th at 1:32 behind. Consider he lost 1:13 on the prologue and 0:59 last night.

Not no more, dropped over 13 minutes in last nights stage. He had a pretty serious crash and had to limp home.

The Aussies can't take a trick.

[Raw Toast]

Awful luck for Rogers, hopefully he can hang in there and continue to create a bit of havoc.

Tonight still promises to be very interesting, but might not be as exciting as I'd thought - it's still a tough mountain stage with a mountain-top finish, but the climb is not supposed to be that hard, and some of the analysts are even saying that Cancellara is a decent chance to stay with the GC riders and keep his yellow joursey.

Apparently it's often super-hot around Andorra at this time of the year, but the forecast is for cloud cover and then a fine mild day, so Evans won't be gruntled about that (anything that makes things hard tends to be to his advantage because he's so good at grinding things out at a strong pace, while riders like Contador rely more on an acceleration that Cadel doesn't have).

The official guide (which is a good read - available at all newsagents), has a note from the organisers that they don't want the race won until the second last day if possible, so the stages in the Pyrenees have not been made as hard as they have been in the past.

But you'd still think that at least one (and hopefully more) of Sastre, Evans, and Menchov will try and get back into it. And Riis has said that if no one else makes a go of it then Saxo Bank will try and make the climb difficult for Astana anyway. One of the interesting things will be whether they protect Cancellara as well as Andy Schleck (and maybe also Frank), or whether Cancellara works for the others.

[Mantis]

Awful luck for Rogers, hopefully he can hang in there and continue to create a bit of havoc.

Tonight still promises to be very interesting, but might not be as exciting as I'd thought - it's still a tough mountain stage with a mountain-top finish, but the climb is not supposed to be that hard, and some of the analysts are even saying that Cancellara is a decent chance to stay with the GC riders and keep his yellow joursey.

Apparently it's often super-hot around Andorra at this time of the year, but the forecast is for cloud cover and then a fine mild day, so Evans won't be gruntled about that (anything that makes things hard tends to be to his advantage because he's so good at grinding things out at a strong pace, while riders like Contador rely more on an acceleration that Cadel doesn't have).

The official guide (which is a good read - available at all newsagents), has a note from the organisers that they don't want the race won until the second last day if possible, so the stages in the Pyrenees have not been made as hard as they have been in the past.

But you'd still think that at least one (and hopefully more) of Sastre, Evans, and Menchov will try and get back into it. And Riis has said that if no one else makes a go of it then Saxo Bank will try and make the climb difficult for Astana anyway. One of the interesting things will be whether they protect Cancellara as well as Andy Schleck (and maybe also Frank), or whether Cancellara works for the others.

So in a sense the first 18 or so stages of the tour are just a waste of time... Why don't they just make it a one day race up a hill?

Anyway tonight should be an interesting stage. Was reading this morning that the final climb had an average gradient of just over 7 so hopefully it sorts a few of the contenders out.

[bornadog]

So in a sense the first 18 or so stages of the tour are just a waste of time... Why don't they just make it a one day race up a hill?

Anyway tonight should be an interesting stage. Was reading this morning that the final climb had an average gradient of just over 7 so hopefully it sorts a few of the contenders out.

What I don't understand is how does one make up time? It seems that all the contenders stick together in the peloton and wait for someone to either drop out on the mountain stages, or crash. Then they hope in the time trials they can make up time?

[Sockeye Salmon]

What I don't understand is how does one make up time? It seems that all the contenders stick together in the peloton and wait for someone to either drop out on the mountain stages, or crash. Then they hope in the time trials they can make up time?

Unfortunately for Cadel that's pretty much what it's been reduced to.

If a rider has a decent team around him they can attack on the hills and then the decent riders have to use up their energy covering them. This time it's the other way around because Astana are so strong.

Astana could send Armstrong + 1 other away and Cadel, Sastre, Schlenk etc would have to go with him because if he got away and they couldn't catch him it's game over.

Then Armstrong would ease back into the peleton for a rest and Contador + 1 other takes off and the hopefuls would have to go again or else Contator could get away and blow the tour away.

Then it's Leipheimer's turn.

Astana could keep doing this until the chasers can't go any more.

The question is whether the ego's involved (ie Armstrong & Contador) would risk the other being the lucky one who broke the back of the chasers.

If they work as a team someone from Astana wins. Will Lance take the risk that it might be Contador?

[Mantis]

I only saw the last 10 or 15 minutes of the stage last night (I was drowning my sorrows), but it was enough to see why Contador is the team to beat. Evans threw everything at the Astana team, but each challenge was countered and then when he had challenged one too many time Contador shot off to gain some valuable seconds in his rivals.

[BulldogBelle]

Grrrrrrr, scheduled rest day today in the Tour De France. Have absolutely enjoyed every minute of it to date.

[Mantis]

After a few 'flat' stages the race hit the Alps last night and we saw the big guns flex their muscles... Well only one big gun - Alberto Contador.

What a freakish climber this guy is, he just rode away from the best cyclists in the world with a power I haven't seen before. Probably as expected he has split the race open and on the back of such a strong team he will be able to keep and probably build on this lead.

Another couple of decent climbs in tonights stage so it will be interesting to see how the other contenders respond, but I just can't see anyone getting close to him at the moment.

[Sockeye Salmon]

Game over.

He's simply too good.

[Lantern]

Game over.

He's simply too good.

What a freakish climber this guy is, he just rode away from the best cyclists in the world with a power I haven't seen before.

Which usually gets the alarm bells ringing.

I know it's probably unfair, but with Le Tour having the horrific doping history it does, I'm afraid the cynicism over 'superhuman' performances is here to stay for a while yet.


Ps. Some of Landis's rides a couple of Tours back re: power was as impressive (if illegal) as anything Contador's pulled this tour.

[Mantis]

Shocking night for Cadel.

When the big guns attacked he was left floundering and dropped another 2'56" on all of the big names. Reports after stage 15 showed that he was a stressed individual and this has carried over into the latest stage (16). His team-mates haven't been able to offer the type of support he requires and I think he is at breaking point.

Hopefully with him out of GC contention he will be allowed to get into a breakaway and go for a stage victory.