Robbo: Why Tim English isn't worth $1 million to the Western Bulldogs

Robbo: Why Tim English isn?t worth $1 million to the Western Bulldogs

https://i.postimg.cc/j2tK88ng/english.jpg

Tim English is coming off an All-Australian season, but is he really worth $1 million a year? MARK ROBINSON says he isn?t to the Western Bulldogs.

Tim English might be worth $1 million-a-season at West Coast, but he isn?t at the Western Bulldogs.

It makes for an intriguing next few months, as both English and the Bulldogs decide if his future beyond 2024 is at the kennel.

The Bulldogs can either pay him what he wants or take a stand, knowing that if it?s the latter, the real possibility is they could lose him through free agency.

Would that be so catastrophic?

They want him to stay, but it has to be at their price and not his.

A Bulldogs package of $750,000 base with incentives could bunk him up, but for a bloke who finished seventh in the 2023 best and fairest, an unconditional $1 million salary to stay is difficult to rationalise.

Put it this way, when the whips were cracking in the second half of last season, and the Bulldogs were striving to play finals, English polled coaches? votes in just one of the final nine games.

Coaches? votes generally have a spread of between six and eight players in each game and, according to the men who know who was a threat, English only once was a significant contributor in that period.

A million-dollar player can?t just be a solid contributor, he has to be a game-changer.

Too often English is not. It?s why the million-dollar price tag doesn?t equate to performance.

In the wacky world of player salaries, Kieren Briggs from the GWS Giants will earn about $350,000 this year.

The bustling Briggs doesn?t have the ruckman?s finesse, which English possesses at centre bounces, but their performances comparatively suggest Briggs is vastly underpaid ? or English will be overpaid.

Briggs doubled English in the average clearance count last year, won more contested possessions and marginally trailed in score involvements, although English did kick 16 goals to Briggs? four.

Rowan Marshall?s stats at St Kilda stack up even better against English, and Marshall is an estimated $750,000 player.

The Bulldogs say they are comfortable with discussions with English?s management.

?There is definite confidence that Tim will remain at the Bulldogs,? chief executive Ameet Bains told afl.com.au this week.

?Sam Power continues to have ongoing and current discussions with Tim?s manager, Andrew McDougall. We haven?t received any indication other than Tim being happy at the club.??

In other words, Bains doesn?t know if English is staying or going.

A restricted free agent at the end of the season, popular opinion has West Coast coming for the 26-year-old. If that happens, the Bulldogs can match the Eagles? offer (they won?t), which then means a trade ensues.

If the Eagles finish bottom, the Dogs will ask for the No.1 pick in return.

The Bulldogs need midfielders. The game seems to have zoomed past Jack Macrae; Bailey Smith might leave; and Tom Liberatore, back in the Dogs? leadership group, is 31 years old.

English for the best midfielder on the draft boards is not a loss, and with Sam Darcy a possible English replacement, or at least working in tandem with Rory Lobb, the Dogs aren?t without ruck options.

Another gun onballer ? to join this year?s first-round draftee Ryley Sanders ? would also replenish the middle of the ground.

The Dogs have hand, but they also have issues.

Marcus Bontempelli is on $1 million-plus and deservedly so. Aaron Naughton is in for eight years on gold coin and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan is the next cab off the rank, meaning those three players alone will take close to $3 million of the $17.7 million salary cap in 2025.

That leaves English and Bailey Smith. Can the Dogs afford to keep both of them?

Not if they have to pay English his asking price.

English is a good player, the All-Australian ruckman last year, but to think he is likely to be paid more than Melbourne captain Max Gawn, the competitions? best ruckman of the past decade, is a little mind-boggling, notwithstanding the largesses of free agency.

Especially so when you peruse recent premiership teams and who they had as their No.1 ruckmen.

Are ruckmen really worth $1 million a year?

I think Slobbo is ignoring the salary cap uplift over the next couple of seasons.

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Originally Posted by Axe Man

I think Slobbo is ignoring the salary cap uplift over the next couple of seasons.

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On purpose?

He is right

I'm happy to stand firm on Timmy, provided we have a replacement lined up if he walks.

Given we have Lobb and from next year, a more developed Darcy as excellent number 2 forward/rucks, we need a mature no 1 ruck lined up and we could get away with a 60-70% TOG bash and crash type.
Ned Moyle would be my first pick (Suns have Witts and just took Read at the pointy end of the draft) and Preuss would surely jump at the chance to be a no 1 ruck as a 2-3 year stop gap solution.

I think the point about the coaches votes is decent.

It's interesting how it's OK for him to be overrated and worth a lot of money on the open market, but to us isn't worth 80-90% of what he might get even though we've shown over time he's exactly the type of ruck we are looking for and value. And don't have a viable, long term replacement who can step into his role in 2025.

The same pundits who suggest Lobb should be the interim fill in are the same people who will lambaste his performance given first ruck isn't his go. Those same pundits think Darcy is ready to go even though as Mofra has pointed out previously, he's not been able to get on the park outside of a few flashes.

That's all without thinking about who is available, and who our coach might want to actually play, in replacement of English which is a complete unknown to us right now.

So with all of that, irrespective of the coaches votes or whatever, I'd say the read on this is arse about and English is worth a lot more to us right now than is being touted. Our risk profile is off the charts, and with risk comes cost.

Briggs? who the F is Briggs. Tim beats him in every department

Player Statistics Comparison

Timothy English Name Kieren Briggs Western Bulldogs Team GWS Giants Ruck Position Ruck 108 Career Games 26 South Fremantle Origin Pennant Hills August 10, 1997 Date of Birth October 6, 1999 26yr 6mth Age 24yr 4mth 208cm Height 201cm 107kg Weight 108kg 2016 National Draft Last Drafted In 2018 National Draft Round 1, Pick #19 Last Draft Position Round 2, Pick #34 Western Bulldogs Last Drafted By GWS Giants 2023 Stats for Season 2023 23 Games 17 11.2 Kicks 9.7 7.9 Handballs 5.7 19.1 Disposals 15.4 6.3 Marks 2.8 0.7 Goals 0.2 0.2 Behinds 0.3 4.3 Tackles 4.5 31.2 Hitouts 25.9 3.2 Inside 50s 3.8 0.3 Goal Assists 0.4 1.8 Frees For 1.3 1.5 Frees Against 1.2 9.2 Contested Possessions 10.7 11.0 Uncontested Possessions 4.3 13.9 Effective Disposals 9.3 72.8% Disposal Efficiency % 60.4% 3.6 Clangers 3.4 1.3 Contested Marks 0.7 0.6 Marks Inside 50 0.2 3.3 Clearances 6.5 1.9 Rebound 50s 1.8 4.3 One Percenters 3.5 0.3 Bounces 0 85.9 Time On Ground % 75.6 1.2 Centre Clearances 2.5 2.1 Stoppage Clearances 4.0 5.3 Score Involvements 4.4 255.0 Metres Gained 263.4 3.3 Turnovers 2.8 4.3 Intercepts 2.6 0.4 Tackles Inside 50 0.4 $1,071,000 AFL Fantasy Price $849,000 118.7 AFL Fantasy Score 92.2 $683,000 Supercoach Price $573,800 128.0 Supercoach Score 105.2

A players worth is what the market will pay, and Tim would get $1 million in the market.

People.

Robbo is tapping into a sentiment the analytics pick up from socials.

They get spoon fed the "sentiments".

Kieren Briggs is the Jordan Sweet of Jordan Sweets. That comparison wasn't accidental.

What do we make of this interview https://x.com/cleary_mitch/status/17...y1lhUs8p7uzZ_A

He doesn?t sound too committed to Dogs ?

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Originally Posted by angelopetraglia

What do we make of this interview https://x.com/cleary_mitch/status/17...y1lhUs8p7uzZ_A

He doesn?t sound too committed to Dogs ?

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Macrae dumped...

Flogs.

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Originally Posted by bornadog

A players worth is what the market will pay, and Tim would get $1 million in the market.

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It's ok BAD we have a long line of back up rucks so he's not worth that to the Dogs.

-Hi I'm a bot I have worked out what nuffies on social media want to hear and spoon feed them that narrative.

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Originally Posted by angelopetraglia

What do we make of this interview https://x.com/cleary_mitch/status/17...y1lhUs8p7uzZ_A

He doesn?t sound too committed to Dogs ?

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I'm leaving it up to my manager so you don't ask me anymore questions on it.

If Jacko was dumped, why was Libba only promoted instead of whatever the opposite of dumped is?

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Originally Posted by Axe Man

I think Slobbo is ignoring the salary cap uplift over the next couple of seasons.

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It's the reason why that within 2 years there will be close to 40 players on million dollar contracts. At the moment we will stand out because of Bont, Naughton, Tim and Marra but other teams will have that challenge.
Going on the news report from Ch9 the Eagles have either offered a multi year million dollar contract or will make that offer.
I'm sure the club and Sam Power will do what they can but within reason and if Tim really wants to head home and play for a bottom club that won't get better quickly then there isn't much we can do about it.

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Originally Posted by Grantysghost

People.

Robbo is tapping into a sentiment the analytics pick up from socials.

They get spoon fed the "sentiments".

Kieren Briggs is the Jordan Sweet of Jordan Sweets. That comparison wasn't accidental.

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Briggs is good but last year (second half really) was the first extended showing of decent form at AFL level. He'll be West Coast's first ruck this year off the back of a few months of exposed form so even taking a 'cheap' ruck is a big risk.

FWIW Timmy was 6th in the comp for average hit outs per game. Not bad considering it's often claimed that actual ruckwork is his weakness.

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Originally Posted by Mofra

Briggs is good but last year (second half really) was the first extended showing of decent form at AFL level. He'll be West Coast's first ruck this year off the back of a few months of exposed form so even taking a 'cheap' ruck is a big risk.

FWIW Timmy was 6th in the comp for average hit outs per game. Not bad considering it's often claimed that actual ruckwork is his weakness.

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BAD has a hit outs to advantage ranking that is even more impressive than that, I'll leave it to him to post it.

Didn’t Tim say he enjoyed being at the dogs and wasn’t looking to move last year ?
Personally I don’t think he is going anywhere.

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Originally Posted by jeemak

BAD has a hit outs to advantage ranking that is even more impressive than that, I'll leave it to him to post it.

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Based on 20 plus matches he was 3rd on average per game, just .6 below 2nd.

You do everything you can to keep him but don't sell the farm, and yes, I agree, not worth a million.

Luxury player, don't think his winning us grand finals.

Also his concussion history scares the crap outta me.

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Originally Posted by Vred

You do everything you can to keep him but don't sell the farm, and yes, I agree, not worth a million.

Luxury player, don't think his winning us grand finals.

Also his concussion history scares the crap outta me.

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If he's offered $1.1M p.a. to $1.2M p.a. does the club offer him $950K p.a. (assuming comparable contract lengths across both parties) and feel good about missing him?

On those numbers we're offering 83% of what the market is willing to pay. Would you stay at your job for that?

If he's offered $1.2M p.a. to $1.3M p.a. at $950K p.a. we're at 75% of the market rate. Bumping that up to $1M p.a. in each instance puts us within 80% to 87% and only comes at a premium of an additional $1.25K p.a. per listed player.

It'd be madness not to go there to keep him, and if Sam can't find that money then what's he there for given how quickly we drop away after our top and second tier earners.

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Originally Posted by jeemak

If he's offered $1.1M p.a. to $1.2M p.a. does the club offer him $950K p.a. (assuming comparable contract lengths across both parties) and feel good about missing him?

On those numbers we're offering 83% of what the market is willing to pay. Would you stay at your job for that?

If he's offered $1.2M p.a. to $1.3M p.a. at $950K p.a. we're at 75% of the market rate. Bumping that up to $1M p.a. in each instance puts us within 80% to 87% and only comes at a premium of an additional $1.25K p.a. per listed player.

It'd be madness not to go there to keep him, and if Sam can't find that money then what's he there for given how quickly we drop away after our top and second tier earners.

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You make a lot of sense with how you mapped out this scenario but I'm probably a bit different to most because I wouldn't walk away from a job that I like especially at that level of money but would happily consider best offers from elsewhere if I wasn't happy. We should put in a very competitive offer but not go a lot over what we think is the maximum. There is always a bit of wiggle room.

Using your scenario, what if we think Tim is worth 900K to 1M a year over 5 years but the Eagles weigh in with 1.3 to 1.4M for 6 years? Would you still feel comfortable with the club pushing it to that level?
I get the market is the market but we certainly don't have to get into an auction with the Eagles and Tim.

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Originally Posted by GVGjr

You make a lot of sense with how you mapped out this scenario but I'm probably a bit different to most because I wouldn't walk away from a job that I like especially at that level of money but would happily consider best offers from elsewhere if I wasn't happy. We should put in a very competitive offer but not go a lot over what we think is the maximum. There is always a bit of wiggle room.

Using your scenario, what if we think Tim is worth 900K to 1M a year over 5 years but the Eagles weigh in with 1.3 to 1.4M for 6 years? Would you still feel comfortable with the club pushing it to that level?
I get the market is the market but we certainly don't have to get into an auction with the Eagles and Tim.

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If the Eagles were offering him that, I'd let him go. That's too much for my taste, and I think it would be for most. YoY we're trying to pay him 70% vs. the market, contract length it's 59% of what he could leave for. If we tried that we're in Cal Ward territory and sitting ducks for being picked apart - not just by our own players but also those we're trying to attract (not to mention the media).

But, we need to get our heads out of what the perception in the media thinks is big money, largely driven by players who never made it when they were playing and have a beef about it. Every ex-player commenting thinks the money is outrageous, and it wasn't that long ago we were all patting ourselves on the back for picking up Tom Boyd (actually, it was almost a decade ago!!!!) for roughly $1M a season, unproven, and thumbing our nose at the media rhetoric. Lambasting people like Leigh Matthews for wanting a young player to fail.

What I'm reading here to me is madness given how much we don't like basic rucks, how good English is, and how little an extra $100K or so has on our TTP in the scheme of things.

We can all pick an arbitrary number we think he's worth, but until the market gives a signal it's bullshit. Whether that's $900K today, $1.05M tomorrow. Saying we won't do this or that is silly because the contingencies are unknown and the risk is off the charts.

And sorry G the above isn't meant to be a crack at your stance. I agree there has to be a discount for staying put, that's how the market works. I guess what I'm saying is that discount can't be too big because the days of Chris Grant turning down Port money or whatever are gone (unless you play for Geelong......).

Fully agree Jeemak, while I rate Tim I wouldn't let the Eagles or anyone else for that matter push up the asking price much beyond what I was prepared to pay. Tim should be fully compensated for his talents and what he brings the team. Who knows how hard we are prepared to fight for him but I can't imagine we will go much over our max assessment of him. Power understands the market and how to manage our salary cap and I'd back him to do the right thing for the club and player. It probably won't get done as early as any of us would like but it's the nature of the beast at the moment.

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Originally Posted by Mofra

Briggs is good but last year (second half really) was the first extended showing of decent form at AFL level. He'll be West Coast's first ruck this year off the back of a few months of exposed form so even taking a 'cheap' ruck is a big risk.

FWIW Timmy was 6th in the comp for average hit outs per game. Not bad considering it's often claimed that actual ruckwork is his weakness.

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Flynn went to West Coast, Briggs is still at GWS having signed a 2 year extension in September.

Now we can't afford to lose him XD

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1076405/...o-lose-english

I don't have much to add, but once again loving the discussion.
Some really interesting points of view.

I really like the way you've analysed the situation Jee.

I'm confident that we won't sell the farm to keep Tim, and to that end I'm sure Power and Co have games scenario's of what it might look like were Tim to get a monster offer, and how we might respond.

Tim is worth every cent of $1 million plus. He is more than just a ruckman, he is a midfielder in a 208cm body. He can float back and take marks, he can be parked in the forward line if need be, and moves around the ground with ease and his ruck work has put him in the top 5 of the AFL (top 3 for hit outs to advantage).

I said a long time ago that he will take time to mature, but it was always evident (to me), that he had the talent to be a star.

Come on Dogs!, get the deal done.

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Originally Posted by jeemak

What I'm reading here to me is madness given how much we don't like basic rucks, how good English is, and how little an extra $100K or so has on our TTP in the scheme of things.

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I can't find anyone saying to let him go over an extra 100k, everyone just has different ideas of what he's worth and what they think the club should pay. I doubt Vred (as one of the few examples in this thread with a valuation of his salary) saying he's a 950K player and what you're saying is actually that different and if he stays for 1-1.1 mil I doubt Vred or many here will lambast the club for the extra 50-150K p.a

I think we all seem to generally agree that he's worth around the 1mil a year ballpark and that 1.3-4 is probably too high a risk, especially if it's a 6 year contract (speculation) as a player in a position that has a lot of physical impact and a history of concussion issues.

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Originally Posted by hujsh

I can't find anyone saying to let him go over an extra 100k, everyone just has different ideas of what he's worth and what they think the club should pay. I doubt Vred (as one of the few examples in this thread with a valuation of his salary) saying he's a 950K player and what you're saying is actually that different and if he stays for 1-1.1 mil I doubt Vred or many here will lambast the club for the extra 50-150K p.a

I think we all seem to generally agree that he's worth around the 1mil a year ballpark and that 1.3-4 is probably too high a risk, especially if it's a 6 year contract (speculation) as a player in a position that has a lot of physical impact and a history of concussion issues.

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Commonsense will prevail and as I mentioned before there is always a bit of wiggle room for a quality footballer and person like Tim.

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Originally Posted by bornadog

Tim is worth every cent of $1 million plus. He is more than just a ruckman, he is a midfielder in a 208cm body. He can float back and take marks, he can be parked in the forward line if need be, and moves around the ground with ease and his ruck work has put him in the top 5 of the AFL (top 3 for hit outs to advantage).

I said a long time ago that he will take time to mature, but it was always evident (to me), that he had the talent to be a star.

Come on Dogs!, get the deal done.

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He had a breakout season last year without question - he took some big strides forward in his ruck craft, which was a real obvious and very costly weakness against the better rucks in previous seasons.

Playing devil's advocate, did we win finals or even challenge the big dogs in 2023? We weren't even close. Now of course that's not English's fault, but team success is so much more than one player excelling in their position. A good comparison is Grundy leaving Collingwood and they previously brought in a workhorse like Darcy Cameron as cover - Cameron is a premiership player and Grundy is onto his 3rd club in 3 seasons. Now we don't have a proven Cameron ruck type on our list at the moment (unless Lobb can change his perspective on more ruck minutes), so it places us in a crap list management/salary cap situation regarding English right here and now.

I'd prefer we kept English but it needs to be in line with our salary cap and he also needs to take a haircut for the incredible (and honestly misplaced at the time) faith that the club has put into him as a no 1 ruckman for many years. This faith has cost us so badly in key finals (and a GF), and IMO English should repay this enormous faith by taking what would still be a very generous contract but at the lower end that he would otherwise command on the open market. He's a sub $1m a season for mine.

Perfect world is that we win the flag in 2024 and English raises his game even further and becomes a premiership hero. If he then chose to take a godfather offer from a West Coast, it would be with all our blessing and we would be compensated accordingly - but we would have needed to shore up an immediate plan B.

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Originally Posted by Sedat

He had a breakout season last year without question - he took some big strides forward in his ruck craft, which was a real obvious and very costly weakness against the better rucks in previous seasons.

Playing devil's advocate, did we win finals or even challenge the big dogs in 2023? We weren't even close. Now of course that's not English's fault, but team success is so much more than one player excelling in their position. A good comparison is Grundy leaving Collingwood and they previously brought in a workhorse like Darcy Cameron as cover - Cameron is a premiership player and Grundy is onto his 3rd club in 3 seasons. Now we don't have a proven Cameron ruck type on our list at the moment (unless Lobb can change his perspective on more ruck minutes), so it places us in a crap list management/salary cap situation regarding English right here and now.

I'd prefer we kept English but it needs to be in line with our salary cap and he also needs to take a haircut for the incredible (and honestly misplaced at the time) faith that the club has put into him as a no 1 ruckman for many years. This faith has cost us so badly in key finals (and a GF), and IMO English should repay this enormous faith by taking what would still be a very generous contract but at the lower end that he would otherwise command on the open market. He's a sub $1m a season for mine.

Perfect world is that we win the flag in 2024 and English raises his game even further and becomes a premiership hero. If he then chose to take a godfather offer from a West Coast, it would be with all our blessing and we would be compensated accordingly - but we would have needed to shore up an immediate plan B.

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He might have had a breakout season, but still only finished 7th in our B & F.

We probably over-worked him in the 1st part of the year and paid the price for it with his drop off in form late, but if he wants to get paid like the best...well he needs to perform to that level over the entire season.

I'd be gutted to lose Big Timmy, it was always going to take him longer to have consistent big games as he started off with such a small frame. He is entering the prime of his career now and I'm confident he will be worth $1m a season during this contract even though he probably isnt right now (in my opinion).

I think the other advantage we have is that none of the other top MEL clubs will be making a play for English with the kind of money being thrown about. If they were to have those kind of funds available they would target a top of the range mid or key position player. By all accounts he loves Melbourne. Eagles will throw the sink at him and we won't be able to compete with the offer but not everyone wants to train in 40 degrees throughout the Summer. The other advantage we now have are our training facilities which are state of the art.

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Originally Posted by Bullies

I think the other advantage we have is that none of the other top MEL clubs will be making a play for English with the kind of money being thrown about. If they were to have those kind of funds available they would target a top of the range mid or key position player. By all accounts he loves Melbourne and was raised in country VIC. Eagles will throw the sink at him and we won't be able to compete with the offer but not everyone wants to train in 40 degrees throughout the Summer. The other advantage we now have are our training facilities which are state of the art.

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His partner has also moved to Melbourne now and I'd imagine the prospect of splitting back up would not be an appealing one.

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Originally Posted by Bullies

I think the other advantage we have is that none of the other top MEL clubs will be making a play for English with the kind of money being thrown about. If they were to have those kind of funds available they would target a top of the range mid or key position player. By all accounts he loves Melbourne and was raised in country VIC. Eagles will throw the sink at him and we won't be able to compete with the offer but not everyone wants to train in 40 degrees throughout the Summer. The other advantage we now have are our training facilities which are state of the art.

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Do you mean country WA?

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Originally Posted by Axe Man

Do you mean country WA?

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He was brought up in Traralgon i think until he was 13.

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Originally Posted by Bullies

He was brought up in Traralgon i think until he was 13.

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I'm fairly certain that isn't true. Born and raised around Pingelly, south east of Perth. I'm sure MJP can confirm.

Perhaps you are thinking of Naughton who grew up in Frankston before the family moved to WA?

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Originally Posted by Axe Man

I'm fairly certain that isn't true. Born and raised around Pingelly, south east of Perth. I'm sure MJP can confirm.

Perhaps you are thinking of Naughton who grew up in Frankston before the family moved to WA?

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My bad it was Naughton

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Originally Posted by Sedat

I'd prefer we kept English but it needs to be in line with our salary cap and he also needs to take a haircut for the incredible (and honestly misplaced at the time) faith that the club has put into him as a no 1 ruckman for many years. This faith has cost us so badly in key finals (and a GF), and IMO English should repay this enormous faith by taking what would still be a very generous contract but at the lower end that he would otherwise command on the open market. He's a sub $1m a season for mine.

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I'm totally on board with what you're saying, however in today's day and age, there is no way a person will go - I know you've looked after me in the past, but i can now make X, why wouldn't they? Footballers in particular are a single head knock away from loosing their livelihood, but they have to make hay while the sun shines.

Personally i think hes worth 850-900k a year. especially with the large salary cap increases that are looming.

a 3-4 year deal on this kind of money with total free agency for him afterwards is a good result "to pay it back to us for what we've put into him" and reward for the "now"

West Coke are going to have to cough up big time to get him over there. If he hasn't signed by July hes gone.