Will it water down the finals?
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Will it water down the finals?
I think it definitely would. It will water down the whole season.
MJP, I absolutely agree that there are issues with fixture equality but what concerns me is that the AFL will (as usual) bring in this idea when it's only half baked and contingencies haven't been thought through. There is still going to be luck that comes into a season regardless of fixture, and the current fixture at least makes some attempt to equalise based on ladder position. It's not perfect, but I don't see it as significantly worse than the 17-5 model and would like a bigger sample size (they've only been using this model for two years haven't they?).
So the totally crap teams get punished? This year a 6 win difference between 13th and 18th.
Also after 17 games this season the difference between 2nd and 7th was percentage. The difference between 7th and 9th was 3 games. Yet with the new system the team in 7th can miss the finals and finish a maximum of 7th position. Those in 2-6 cannot miss the finals and can finish at worst 6th. Just every way I look at this idea all I see is stupidity.
Interestingly in the past 6 years 6 & 7 have been separated by percentage only in 5 of those seasons.
Rolling draw, still not completely fair but its the best that can be done and it also gets rid of the rubbish 2x rivalry games and manufactured fixtures
I understand your point, but to MJPs point, there is % separating 2-6 after 17 games. So everyone has played each other once. That's as equal as it can be. If there was % separating 2-6 at the end of 22 rounds would we complain about it? It's in some ways worse as teams have played different opponents twice. And 7th, being 3 games ahead of 8-12, should be good enough to get through.
17-5 is not perfect but it still has merit
So you are telling me in the last 10 weeks of the year - round 18-22 and then the finals - I get to watch the best 6 teams go at it TWICE? And all the crap teams play each other in obscurity and I don't have to even bother about those games (unless we are one of them?)
It sounds like the last 3-months of footy would be awesome under this model.
Where do I sign up for this?
If the AFEL had their way they would stop the season after 17 games. It's how to fill the other 5 weeks up with meaningful footy that is the problem. Their ideal solution is probably to pack in all the blockbusters and derbies and showdowns and bridge battles and whatever the freakshow in Queensland is called again.
I like the idea, but would like to see it refined. Having a core 17 round season seems a no-brainer, from there I guess there are any number of things you could do. For me, the 5 game round-robin is a bit long to have the bottom two eventual finalists separated from the rest. I'd like to see the back-end of the season more aligned with the structure of the finals.
Maybe three groups of four making up the top 12? A bye before the round-robin - Brownlow weekend. At the conclusion of the 3 game round-robin, the lowest ranked team from the top four moves down into the bottom half of the eight, the lowest ranked team from the middle four misses out and the highest ranked team from the 9-12 bracket gets a wildcard entry. Would make for a 20 game season in total, the bottom six don't miss that much football, we kill off the out of form team in the eight and don't lose momentum going into finals.
Well worst case scenario is the totally crap team gets the 3rd pick (and that requires the 3rd placed team to do really well).If teams 6 5 and 4 do the best in that order they'll just shuffle around their picks.
I don't love it but it seems like if we did go the 17-5 model that might be an option that doesn't completely damage the shit clubs and gives incentive for them to at least try when the season's over.
And the punishment is no worse than doing shit in an expansion team concession year.
I reckon under a 17-5 fixture (which I generally like), the fairest way to allocate draft picks for the bottom 6 teams would be to allocate draft pick 1 to the team that is 18th after 17 rounds, pick 2 to 17th and so on.
This would allow the last 5 rounds for the bottom teams to be a time to fight to avoid the wooden spoon (which would again become a symbol of unambiguous ignominy without having the reward of draft pick 1 attached), but also to play kids and plan for the future without the suspicion/accusation of tanking in the final games.
Don't mind it, and taking it further, maybe the 18th team after 17 rounds gets the most entries into a draft lottery, 17th next most etc to round out the top 5 picks.
So even if they tank to be guaranteed bottom after 17 rounds, the bottom team isn't guaranteed pick 1, just the best chance at it.
I really like the idea of a draft lottery for the top 5 picks.