Hindsight: Trading First Round Draft Picks

I've collated first round draft pick trades from 2000 to 2014. Moreso looking for the lessons that can be learned that history has shown the clubs. Caveats are I haven't generally included complex trades where there are multiple exchanges (I.e. trades for strategic reasons) or that involve multiple players where the value is harder to identify. I haven't had time to think about what the lessons are, whether it warns against trading first rounders or perhaps not stuffing up top picks. But it does look like the practice has slowed down over the years. What you make of it, how you interpret it would be appreciated and an interesting discussion...

2000

Bode to Adelaide, Rehn to Hawthorn - #12 - Shaun Burgoyne
Clement & Holland to Collingwood, Paul Williams to Sydney - #8 - eventually Daniel Motlop
Justin Murphy to Geelong - #11 - Trent Sporn
Wakelin > Hamill - #4 - Luke Livingston

2001

Croad & McPharlin - #1 - Hodge
Farmer > Bizzell > Black > Stafford > Hall - #13 & #17 - 13 Dal Santo, 17 James Kelly

2002

Leigh Brown > Byron Pickett - #13 - Byron Schammer
Carey - #2 & #18 - Daniel Wells & Kris Shore
Daniel Chick - #8 - Luke Brennan
Peter Everitt - #6 - Eventually Steven Salopek
Barnaby French - #16 - Steven Gilham
Des Headland - #3 & #19 - Jared Brennan & Troy Selwood
Luke Penny - #17 - Cameron Faulkner
Shane Woewodin - #14 - Daniel Bell

2003

Nathan Brown > Danny Jacobs > Lachlan Veale - #6 (& more) - Kepler Bradley
Trent Croad - #10 - Rhley Dunn

2004

Scott Thompson > Moloney - #12 - Lynden Dunn
Josh Carr - #11 - Angus Monfries
Brad Ottens - #12 & #16 - AA & Adam Pattison
Jolly - #15 - Cameron Wood
Nathan Thompson - #10 - Chris Egan

2005

Fergus Watts - #17 - Darren Pfeiffer
Jono Hay - #18 - Max Bailey
Nathan Lonie - #14 - Grant Birchall

2006

Chris Tarrant - #8 - Ben Reid (& Medhurst)

2007

Cam Wood > Trav Johnstone - #14 - Jack Grimes
Jordan McMahon - #19 - Callan Ward

2008

Nil.

2009

Brock McLean - #11 - Jordan Gysbert
Andrew Lovett - #16 - McMillan-Pittard (Buyer beware)
Darren Jolly - #14 - Lewis Jetta
Shaun Burgoyne - #9 - Andrew Moore

2010

End of first round compo: Hale (Kieran Harper), Tambling (Jake Batchelor) & Sherman (Lester)
Pick 15 from GCS to Geelong - Smedts

2011

Mitch Clarke - #12 - Sam Docherty

2012

Sharrod Wellingham - #18 - Brodie Grundy

2013

Ben McEvoy (& Savage) - #18 - Luke Dunstan

2014

O'Rourke - #19 - Eventaully Blaine Boekhurst
Dayne Beams (& others) - #5 - Jordan De Goey and his dog
Paddy Ryder - #17 - Kyle Langford
Tom Boyd/Gryphone - #6 - Caleb Marchbank


So, is there a trend? Does history tend itself to being overly cautious about trading out first rounders? Or for the right gun player, the risk is worth it? Is some fault the poor drafting from good picks? It seems some clubs have really hurt from trading out their first rounders, perhaps costing premierships equally s some clubs have won premierships from it.

Lesson: Only trade a first round pick to a club with a terrible recruiting manager.

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Originally Posted by westdog54

Lesson: Only trade a first round pick to a club with a terrible recruiting manager.

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There's not a lot of guns picked up through the draft picks are there? That's a very, very average list of players by and large. That adage about a bird in the bush is equal to a hand of birds, or something. I guess if the player is likely to help win you premierships (Ottens, Hodge, Jolly etc) then maybe trading out first rounders, especially later first rounders, isn't as much of a risk as some might think.

We should have known 2009 was going to be a dog of a first round. 4 teams traded out of it.

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Originally Posted by comrade

We should have known 2009 was going to be a dog of a first round. 4 teams traded out of it.

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Melbourne came out of the first round of that draft with Scully, Trengove and Gysberts. Luke Tapscott went with the first pick of the second round.

That is mediocrity at its best.

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Originally Posted by comrade

We should have known 2009 was going to be a dog of a first round. 4 teams traded out of it.

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I think our selection compounded that draft for us.

Looking at 2002-2004 there was quite a flurry of first round draft trading. Then very little except for 2009.

Then 15 instances between 2014 & 2016. So it looks like it's back in vogue for list managers, especially with future first round trading and the quality of the player traded is better generally too. I guess we will soon find out if the drafting is equally as good or whether landing the traded player was worth it. Looking at this history as a possible profile of future risk, getting the player you want (if he's good) is certainly worth the risk.

All I really got from that is that players are more known quantities than picks. Some big hits and big misses in the draft. A good recruiting team is probably the biggest factor in whether the team that traded for picks won the trade

Hunter for pick 5 anyone? :)

I'm struggling to comprehend the market value back in 2002. Daniel Chick for pick 8?!?

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Originally Posted by jazzadogs

I'm struggling to comprehend the market value back in 2002. Daniel Chick for pick 8?!?

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There's some crazy stuff. Hawthorn did remarkably well, no wonder they built a premiership list with first rounders for Lonie, Chick, Croad, Hay, Jed Anderson, Thompson & Veale (Rawlings). Who a part from Chick, all went on to do sweet FA.

A first round pick for Lonie. How did they keep a straight face?

They got two first rounders for Jonathan Hay too I think.

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Originally Posted by Twodogs

A first round pick for Lonie. How did they keep a straight face?

They got two first rounders for Jonathan Hay too I think.

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I'm not sure how the final trades paned 2 out but Hawthorn went into the draft with picks 3 (priority), 6, 14 and 18.

They ended up with Xavier Ellis, Beau Dowler (ouch), Grant Birchall and Max Bailey.

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Originally Posted by westdog54

I'm not sure how the final trades paned 2 out but Hawthorn went into the draft with picks 3 (priority), 6, 14 and 18.

They ended up with Xavier Ellis, Beau Dowler (ouch), Grant Birchall and Max Bailey.

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Was Dowler in a car accident?

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Originally Posted by Twodogs

Was Dowler in a car accident?

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Accident was pre-draft. They still took him at 6. Played 16 games in 4 seasons.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by westdog54

Accident was pre-draft. They still took him at 6. Played 16 games in 4 seasons.

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Just imagine if they actually nailed that pick & the top 10 pick on Mitch Thorp.