Did we waste Draft Picks by picking Rejects from other clubs?

[Greystache]

Yeah - have to say, I rate him pretty highly also.

I know Greystache watches a lot of Essendon - so respect his opinion.
But from what I've seen of Carlisle - he could be anything, if they just let him play centre half back, which is where he prefers to play (and thats not from media speculation...that's from Jake himself).

The media machine was working overdrive on Carlisle when he started to show some form, but the truth it's only been in small bursts and even then he struggled with the faster leading types. His first half of last season was very good, prior to 2013 he'd been predominantly a top up tall, but his 2nd half of 2013 was poor and he's continued in the same way this season.

As I said his limitations are the same as Roughead (pace off the mark, agility on quick leading forwards) and his strengths are the same (can play on the biggest of forwards, intercept marking, impacting a contest third man up). He only offers us something that's already a strength, plus he's been highly inconsistent to date, and has no leadership qualities.

I'm a fan of Carlisle, I liked what I saw right from his debut, but he's not an improvement on Roughead, and I certainly wouldn't be throwing big bucks at him under the assumption that Roughead will be just as effective playing somewhere else.

[always right]

The media machine was working overdrive on Carlisle when he started to show some form, but the truth it's only been in small bursts and even then he struggled with the faster leading types. His first half of last season was very good, prior to 2013 he'd been predominantly a top up tall, but his 2nd half of 2013 was poor and he's continued in the same way this season.

As I said his limitations are the same as Roughead (pace off the mark, agility on quick leading forwards) and his strengths are the same (can play on the biggest of forwards, intercept marking, impacting a contest third man up). He only offers us something that's already a strength, plus he's been highly inconsistent to date, and has no leadership qualities.

I'm a fan of Carlisle, I liked what I saw right from his debut, but he's not an improvement on Roughead, and I certainly wouldn't be throwing big bucks at him under the assumption that Roughead will be just as effective playing somewhere else.

Couldn't care less about the media machine. He's been inconsistent but I like what I see as he matches up well against a lot of the key forwards. Is the complete footballer?.......not many are.

You seem to think he would be a replacement for Roughead. I'm thinking we would have our two key position defenders locked away for the next ten years. Not a bad duo to build your defensive structure around.

As I said.....we clearly rate his ability differently. No crime in that regardless of the number of times you've watched him play.

[Ozza]

You definitely make some good points regarding his potential to fit in our side, Greystache. I'm not sold either way on whether he's the type we should look at going after. However, I still think he has shown he has a lot of ability - and at 22 inconsistency is probably a given. I would suggest he is way ahead of most 22 year olds of his size in the game.

The way footy is going - the forwards are getting so tall, that you might need 2 blokes around the 6"6 mark, with the ability to swing one forward at times.

It certainly makes for a interesting discussion, if he was to become available for trade in future.

[bornadog]

We have ZERO chance of getting Carlisle, so a moot point.

[always right]

We have ZERO chance of getting Carlisle, so a mute point.

Moot even.

Sorry

[bornadog]

Moot even.

Sorry

correct

[Guido]

Are there actual stats behind those numbers you've quoted Guido or are they purely based on your observation?

As always, all stats are ripped out my arse.

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/f...r=1999&t=R&s=G

Above website is fantastic, it dynamically updates to reflect the games tally.

In the top corner of the table you can basically scroll through each rookie draft between 1999-2009 within about 2 minutes. 1999 still has guys going and probably a good starting point for "modern" recruiting, and 2009 would be as late as you would go, 4 full years on a list would be the minimum time frame to get an idea of long term quality.

Of the typical 50-60 picks taken, almost every single rookie draft has about half a dozen players who wouldn't be out of place in a premiership side, and most drafts will also have a player or two who've turned into A graders.

Exact percentage might be a touch more, might be a touch less, in some years the strike rate might be a lot more or a lot less, but generally, 10% of players picked up via the rookie list ending up quality players I think is a fair guesstimate.

The other figures, yep, purely based on observation and skimming through some drafts, as a general gut feel about 4 out of 5 kids picked up after about 40 won't amount to much in the long term (I'm sure there will be drafts that make this call look ridiculous). But using this lower strike rate to justify going with the "better bet" of fringe, list clogging delistees instead with these picks might cost you a Cross or Lake.

[Nuggety Back Pocket]

I would be very surprised if 8 of them left at the end of the year.

I wouldn't think Higgins, JJ, Jones, Morris, Murphy, Smith, Stevens or Wood would be in any doubt at all.

Boyd and Young are only chances if things go really sour really quickly.

Dickson and Tutt probably only need 4-5 decent games in the seniors to snag another year.

Williams is one that could go either way depending on injuries, form and his motivation.

Giansiracusa is obviously already gone.

That leaves Howard, Pearce and Goodes as probables at this stage, and they are all half back flankers which may mean the club is reluctant to lose 3 of the same type and thus keeps one.

So really there are only 7 real candidates, and based on the faith we have seen from the coaches towards players I would be surprised if half of that 7 goes.

Couple that with a required rookie promotion if we want to keep any of our rookies (most probably Jong at this stage) and there aren't actually that many free list spots at the end of the season.

A lot will depend on our success rate from now until the end of the season. If we do not advance up the ladder then drastic changes to the list would need to follow.This could mean that 7-8 changes could be more likely.

[Happy Days]

The media machine was working overdrive on Carlisle when he started to show some form, but the truth it's only been in small bursts and even then he struggled with the faster leading types. His first half of last season was very good, prior to 2013 he'd been predominantly a top up tall, but his 2nd half of 2013 was poor and he's continued in the same way this season.

As I said his limitations are the same as Roughead (pace off the mark, agility on quick leading forwards) and his strengths are the same (can play on the biggest of forwards, intercept marking, impacting a contest third man up). He only offers us something that's already a strength, plus he's been highly inconsistent to date, and has no leadership qualities.

I'm a fan of Carlisle, I liked what I saw right from his debut, but he's not an improvement on Roughead, and I certainly wouldn't be throwing big bucks at him under the assumption that Roughead will be just as effective playing somewhere else.

I agree with you, except for the being a fan part. He's got unlimited mileage from beating up on a heavily injured Pavlich last year and kicking two goals in the second half of a game where he had SEVEN GOALS kicked on him in the first. And Buddy messed him up for fun.

He's got great hands and passes the eye test but that's about it.

[LostDoggy]

Come on dogs.....offer up our first round draft pick to Essendon, get this bloke across to us and play him at CHB.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/af...-1226892110887

I like this but is he out of contract?
Imagine taking another guy away from Essendon, god I would love it.