Did we waste Draft Picks by picking Rejects from other clubs?

[jeemak]

Surprised you have Jong in that list considering how quickly he has developed. You might as well include Stringer.

The "P" word comes into it then. Not saying it's right or wrong to use it though. What I would say is that Stringer has been playing a much tougher role at senior level than what Jong has.

[Before I Die]

I dont care where we get our fringe / development players from, as long as we refresh them quicker - Im firmly of the opinion that quality players reveal themselves early and having a fringe player who shows nothing on the list for more than two years is poor list management.

We could and should have had three new players on the rookie list this year - one of them might have been the next Dahlhaus, Morris, or Boyd, but we will never know. We do know that Greenwood, Austin and Redpath wont be.

I think the critical point here is the 'definition of shows nothing'. For most fans a player has to be amongst the bests in the twos or regularly performing ok in the senior team to be 'showing something'. We don't see what the coaches see on the track. We don't know what their KPIs are for improvement in a particular season. Late draft picks have flaws, that is why they are late picks. Can those flaws be addressed and how long will it take is the question. Plus there is the injury dilemma which often complicates things. I am not an advocate of the tattslotto approach to late picks. Remember, every week somebody wins it, but it is not a smart investment strategy.

Austin is clearly insurance and is one more injury away from being needed. You cannot know if Greenwood or Redpath will make it, though I suspect that this year will be their last chance at the Dogs.

[GVGjr]

Over the last couple of year I've seen it mentioned from time to time that we have 'wasted' draft picks on players from other clubs.
The club was pretty clear when Macca was appointed that it was on a path of bringing in young players but also addressing some of gaps we had in the list by identifying players from other clubs with a number of playing years in front of them.

We targeted Koby Stevens early on and paid a sensible price him and he has now responded well by playing his best football with us. He still has some improvement to go and he played 19 games for us last year and I think this is one in the plus column.

We also landed (20yo) Tom Young from Collingwood for a late pick we were probably never going to use and when he arrived at the club we were surprised that he really wasn't an AFL fit player at that time. Hard work over the summer had him around the mark.
A tallish defender who can play on a variety of opponents for his 15 games in 2013 I think this is another player in the plus column.

Mark Austin is a 193cm rookie listed player for us who plays mainly as a tall defender. He's into his 3rd season as a rookie and has played senior games in both 2012 and 2013. I thought he was close to a promotion at the end of last year and with the injury to Roughead I think he is still a handy player to have on the list. I still regard Austin as a plus because he is a solid insurance for injuries to KPD.

For years there were question marks on the pace we had in the back half so during last years trade period we were able to land Sam Darley from GWS and once again we used a late pick. He unfortunately required an operation before the start of the season and it will take some time before we see him in action. Have to be regarded as neutral so far.

Crameri was our high profile recruit. A lot of people thought we would be screwed over by Essendon during the long drawn out process but in the end we landed him for a 2nd round pick. I have to regard him as a big tick.

Nick Lower was a player we identified to help us add some tagging qualities to the midfield. Lower was seen as the guy that could run with the stronger bodied midfielders (allowing Picken to play on the smaller ones). During the season two other options emerged. Clay Smith was able to play a couple of very good games as a run with player before getting injured but instead of turning straight back to Lower, Mitch Wallis grasped his chances and really kick started him career.
After just one season, Lower was no longer a required player and is now playing for Footscray. I'd regard this selection as neutral but some might see it as a fail.

Overall, I'm very supportive of the way we have identified players from other clubs. Some might regard them as rejects but I think we have such a low number of players from other clubs it's actually a good endorsement of what Macca and the recruiting team are all about.

We often read of 'Moneyball' recruitment principles but I think the Dogs have developed a better version that could possibly be called 'Sensiball'.

[lemmon]

Great post GVG, you can throw in Campbell and Dickson as sensible selections as well. We had insider knowledge on both, we needed a ruck in case Minson went down and Campbell was both proven at VFL level and more mature than an 18 year old we would get out of the draft, while also having significant improvement left.

Dickson perhaps wasn't a selection based on need but even if he doesn't play another game I think it's been a successful pick, he's been able to come into the side when required and perform reasonably well, 30 games and 45 goals is a better career than most pick 57's would have. Not writing him off but in the few years he's had on the list he has already contributed to a few significant wins.

[GVGjr]

Great post GVG, you can throw in Campbell and Dickson as sensible selections as well. We had insider knowledge on both, we needed a ruck in case Minson went down and Campbell was both proven at VFL level and more mature than an 18 year old we would get out of the draft, while also having significant improvement left.

Dickson perhaps wasn't a selection based on need but even if he doesn't play another game I think it's been a successful pick, he's been able to come into the side when required and perform reasonably well, 30 games and 45 goals is a better career than most pick 57's would have. Not writing him off but in the few years he's had on the list he has already contributed to a few significant wins.

I had a look at the 6 players we recruited from other sides (Lower is now at Footscray) but I'll certainly have a deeper look at the players we have picked up from state league teams like Fuller, Goodes, Campbell and Dickson. I have already written a bit about them.

I just had a glance at a few other sides including Fremantle who have been remarkable with the state league teams and Hawthorn through aggressive trades with other clubs. There is quite a contrast between a lot of successful sides. When you look at the Swans they have really targeted top bracket players in the last 2 years with Tippet and Franklin. Richmond have gone about things like they are in a premiership window.

Who knows what the right approach is for us but I tend to think young players from other clubs that are capable of playing 100 games with us seems about right and players with specific strengths that our list lacks from the state leagues also helps.

[Remi Moses]

You just can't cut everybody, as you have such things as contracts.
The term "moneyball" just gets used as a commentator's throw away line.
For mine in a compromised drafts like we've had picking up VFL players or mature players is a no brainer.
Lower, although I disagreed with the selection I could see the reasoning behind it.

[always right]

The "P" word comes into it then. Not saying it's right or wrong to use it though. What I would say is that Stringer has been playing a much tougher role at senior level than what Jong has.

Wasn't meaning to pot Stringer. I just can't understand why anyone would put Jong in the questionable category when he is now playing seniors at a youngish age and his improvement is still on an upward trajectory. My point is he has shown just as much as Stringer although I concede that Stringer has X factor and is playing in a more difficult position.

[bulldogtragic]

Barlow, Rampe, Hudson (before Adelaide), Podsiadly - All still playing AFL, not for us.

Every team needs to pan for gold, Hawthorm have done very well supplementing top picks with picks like Puopolo, Simpkin, Cheney & Spangher. And even then they lost on Boumann and even some top picks like Thorp and Dowler. Recruiting is an inexact science, but finding gems in lower leagues of discards is a good strategy, see Dale Morris. I think unfortunately for us we've had more fails than say Hawthorn with picks like Rose, Panos, Davidson etc. It's about picking the right players who didn't get drafted or have been overlooked. I think we're getting better, but past fails shouldn't deter us from future investments in this area of recruiting and list management.

[G-Mo77]

Barlow, Rampe, Hudson (before Adelaide), Podsiadly - All still playing AFL, not for us.

Every team needs to pan for gold, Hawthorm have done very well supplementing top picks with picks like Puopolo, Simpkin, Cheney & Spangher. And even then they lost on Boumann and even some top picks like Thorp and Dowler. Recruiting is an inexact science, but finding gems in lower leagues of discards is a good strategy, see Dale Morris. I think unfortunately for us we've had more fails than say Hawthorn with picks like Rose, Panos, Davidson etc. It's about picking the right players who didn't get drafted or have been overlooked. I think we're getting better, but past fails shouldn't deter us from future investments in this area of recruiting and list management.

I really can't remember back as far as the Werribee days. All I remember is Pods and the talk of drafting him or getting him out of Werribee to develop our own forwards. I can't even remember Barlow or Huddo. Was there interest from anywhere else apart from Freo/Crows?

Willy days are a bit more clearer. Rampe is a miss as far as I'm concerned, was good at Willy, very good and should have been on our list. Drafted #37 in the rookie draft we took Goodes as our only pick and Rampe wasn't even a candidate for that pick. Duscher and Prismall were the others fighting for that spot. I've got no problems with the Goodes selection but the fact that we took one pick in the Rookie Draft in 2012 and none in 2013 is very concerning.

[bulldogtragic]

I really can't remember back as far as the Werribee days. All I remember is Pods and the talk of drafting him or getting him out of Werribee to develop our own forwards. I can't even remember Barlow or Huddo. Was there interest from anywhere else apart from Freo/Crows?

Willy days are a bit more clearer. Rampe is a miss as far as I'm concerned, was good at Willy, very good and should have been on our list. Drafted #37 in the rookie draft we took Goodes as our only pick and Rampe wasn't even a candidate for that pick. Duscher and Prismall were the others fighting for that spot. I've got no problems with the Goodes selection but the fact that we took one pick in the Rookie Draft in 2012 and none in 2013 is very concerning.

To your last point, this was and maybe soon a serious concern of mine and others. That being, did we cut deep enough and did we select the right players last year?

As you say, no rookie selections. We've done really well from this source and keeping Redpath and Greenwood if they continue along the path of VFL struggle street then questions will get asked about over estimating the list.

Not selecting a back up ruckman. I'm still puzzled by this. Campbell and Cordy are the best back up we have, neither have shown a history of dominating the VFL ruck spot, and Minno is rucking 95% of the game as our first option.

Darley AND Fuller. My understanding as I haven't seen them is they're both half back flankers... We upgraded Goodes, a half back flanker. Then we moved Higgins to the half back flank. Many pieces of the puzzle have not been apparent me, and this piece is still not clear to me.

And then keeping players like Howard on, and Gia taking a spot on the senior list for about 5 equivalent full time games for the season.

We still may very well play really well for the year, really well as our good is good. But if things don't go as well then the above questions are legitimate questions in review of what we did post season 2013. I still remember thinking I hope we don't look back in a few years in say if only we cut deeper in 2013.

[G-Mo77]

I think our main list trimming was fine last year. Gia going another round was surprising but I don't have that many issues with it. Howard should have gone, yes we drafted him high doesn't mean we need to keep him for 5 years to prove it. He can't play, cut him.

We should have cut into the rookie list and at least taken one selection. Redpath and Greenwood the obvious candidates to be cut. Austin adds depth but we've invested in Roberts why not just put faith in him and take another rookie selection?

[GVGjr]

Rampe is a miss as far as I'm concerned, was good at Willy, very good and should have been on our list. Drafted #37 in the rookie draft we took Goodes as our only pick and Rampe wasn't even a candidate for that pick. Duscher and Prismall were the others fighting for that spot. I've got no problems with the Goodes selection but the fact that we took one pick in the Rookie Draft in 2012 and none in 2013 is very concerning.

Early on, I kept making mention of Rampe in my Williamstown reports. He's done okay with the Swans and I'm not sure why he didn't get a look in despite training with the club from time to time.

[always right]

I think our main list trimming was fine last year. Gia going another round was surprising but I don't have that many issues with it. Howard should have gone, yes we drafted him high doesn't mean we need to keep him for 5 years to prove it. He can't play, cut him.

We should have cut into the rookie list and at least taken one selection. Redpath and Greenwood the obvious candidates to be cut. Austin adds depth but we've invested in Roberts why not just put faith in him and take another rookie selection?

Watched the VFL yesterday. Howard yet again struggled to get the ball, Greenwood was pretty solid but not what we need, Redpath looked pretty good if a little one dimensional, and Roberts was as impressive as I've seen him.

[comrade]

Early on, I kept making mention of Rampe in my Williamstown reports. He's done okay with the Swans and I'm not sure why he didn't get a look in despite training with the club from time to time.

I was always impressed with Rampe, back in the day, even when he was slogging it out in the VFL reserves.

[Greystache]

Early on, I kept making mention of Rampe in my Williamstown reports. He's done okay with the Swans and I'm not sure why he didn't get a look in despite training with the club from time to time.

Without knowing for sure I think his game in the VFL grand final might have really hurt his rating at the club. Getting destroyed by Pat Rose, who we didn't rate, probably hurt him. He looked really second rate that day.