The Paul Roos Experiment is Nearly Over - Pass or Fail?

[bulldogtragic]

So, the Paul Roos Experiment is coming to an end in just a couple of handfuls of games. Roos contract was for $1,500,000 per year for 3 years. Have the AFL got a decent return on investment for their $4,500,000 cheque to secure Roos for Melbourne?

It's easier to start with facts:

2014: 4 wins - Finishing 17th
2015: 7 wins - Finishing 13th
2016: 6 wins - Currently 10th (Projected Finishing 14th on 9 wins)

In 2013 they gave up rights to Josh Kelly (or Bontempelli) in favour of Dom Tyson from GWS & Salem at pick 9. They brought in Bernie Vince with pick 23, Daniel Cross and some nothing player trades.
In 2014 they brought in Lamumba for Mitch Clarke, Frost for pick 23 and Brendan McCartney. They lost Frawley due to poor management.
In 2015 they gave up pick 25 for Melksham. Moved around Kennedy, Bugg and picks for Howe, Toumpass and picks.

Outside of their very top picks, they had no picks before pick 40 aiming to trade in and not draft up. Seems a very deliberate approach to avoid their recruiters and stock up on mediocre players.

All in all, was this a success to stop the rot? Or bearing all things in mind, is this a very expensive exercise in mediocre ladder progression and questionable list management?

I'm firmly in the fail camp. From 4 to 9 wins over 3 years with several top 5 picks and bringing in mature players may have stopped the rot, but it's not a great return above natural progression of the list without Roos. It probably has deflected more attention to GCS and Brisbane's failings, but not allowing the recruiters to go to the draft for 3 years between picks 10 & 40 is a crazy long term plan. We've seen gun after gun on our list in this range over the same years. Either they had no faith in their recruiters, which is somewhat understandable, or they were solely about stemming the bleeding and Roos being able to say there's more wins than losses by his final year.

As for gameplan, there's still not a coherent one that I can see. As for player development there's more concern than clear wins, Dawes has gone backwards, Watts is still treading water, Fitzpatrick looked alright and was then cut. The great white hopes in Hogan & McDonald are not yet putting pen to paper and they still seem to rely on too few too often, mostly Jones still. The pessimist in me thinks that their slight rise up the ladder may be temporary and we might be back to the same old unless their very top picks can carry them up to maybe 10th or so.