Who would you have JMac target this year?

[bulldogtragic]

I don't think it's a dichotomy of kids or blokes not getting games at other clubs. For me, I think we have more than enough quality kids developing and we are likely to heavily draft in 2018 & 2019 with potentially West, Khamis, Liberatore & Kellett. So more kids again. While we are losing in the next two years mature players in Bob, Boyd, Morris, Cloke & Picken.

Maybe the plan is to look at cash converter trades (ie Biggs) or blokes wanting to move on (ie Suckling, or those in the article). But also mature very good players. Surely there's something between drafting kids or unplayed players. Do we keep recruiting kids to have them request trades out because we keep drafting best available (ie Hrovat). Dalrymple has said he doesn't think this draft is chock full of top end talent. Looking at the list, and our possible heavy draft involvement in future years, while losing mature players. I think this year is the year to go hard at the trade table.

[lemmon]

Should we be talking to any of these guys?

Out-of-favour stars

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-06-2...08089_67210911

Durdin was a pretty highly rated youngster that's fallen off the radar a bit. I wouldnt mind a nibble there.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

The more i think about it I think it may be worthwhile for our list management team to consider treading lightly this year's trade period and instead use both our cap surplus ( last season's 'Hurley' money) including the cap increase allocated with the new CBA to sign up our core players well into the future.
My main concerns about this season's trade period is that flush with the rise in salary cap many clubs are going to be making crazy bids to lure talent. This both presents a problem and an opportunity for us.

If we try to partake in trades or FA offers there is likely going to be an inflationary aspect that could see us overpaying and putting unnecessary pressure on our cap going forward.

The opportunity is that by keeping our powder dry whilst others lose their heads, we may be in a better position next year to purchase players in an environment where there is less competition and thus less inflationary pressure on the final price.

Also, flush with cash and a host of young talent we could focus our attention on offering longer term extensions to our guys who come out of contract next year and in 2019 and head off any potential raids.

I'd hate to be in a position like we were with Callan Ward again -where with a bit more list foresight we could've prevented him from even being a target for GWS.

You only have to look at Dusty, Fyfe, JJ and Kelly this year to know that should Bont, Stringer, Dahl et al get to their final contract year unsigned, clubs are going to come ridiculously hard at them. If we were to induce them now to add 2 more years to their contract this may make it very hard for others to plot ahead enough for it to be feasible to get them.
Thoughts?

[bulldogtragic]

Certainly see your position YHF. The catches I see with that are:

- sitting out another trade period.
- Rhylee West was Vic Metro U/16 MVP. He's in the U/18 VM squad now. We may have to use a high pick. So if we are looking a t next year, then we need to trade out some good players to get good trades in. I'm not sure who of value deserves to go.
- The Ward situation was not about our salary cap. Out list manager horribly low balled him, against all common sense despite having the cap to sign him. With a competent list manager now, there won't be another Ward scenario.
- Does sitting out a year absolutely guarantee us keeping all of guns? We can put $1,500,000 aside instead of pursuing a Fyfe/Martin. But if North through one of their 10 year $1,500,000 offers at Bonts, could that sway him away and we've sat out for nothing.
- As I read the CBA headlines, the salary cap will be incrementally increasing by around 1.5% per year or about $180,000. So we have more money year on year to sign up players, and other clubs also have more money to poach other players. Lowly teams can also bank salary cap and then offer monster offers that we can't compete with.
- If enough other clubs are thinking similar to yourself, that is keeping cash on hand for next year, then aren't we going to face the same problem next year too then?
- If we go to the draft again this year, and next two with at least West, Khamis, Liberatore & Kellett on our radar in elite squads, then we seem very limited to bring in top end talent other than free agency or trading players out.


I'm certainly not saying your wrong, it's certainly a case well made. But I think there's a case for the opposite, done in professional and responsible way. Dalrymple is already on the record that the top end of this draft isn't good, at least compared with the last few years where we picked up English, Collins & Dunkley. So if the value isn't there for Dal, then this is the draft year to attack the trade and free agency period, knowing we're off to the draft with some exciting prospects in 2018 & 2019. Even more so 'if' JJ is quitting the club.

What the JJ situation has shown that the club can throw a large sum of money at a player, and they can still go. Banking cap to try to sign more players up sounds ok, but what happens if they get better offers anyway? They'll leave just like JJ might. JMac will be Forcasting ahead for all our out of contract players, what the club thinks they're worth, plus a buffer and then offset by annual rises in the cap. With our very healthy position we still have a lot of cap to pursue top end talent, but that doesn't mean irresponsible offers. I see the stars above aligning for this to be the year we go aggressively in being prepared to trade multiple good picks and free agency.

So I don't want us to get left behind this year. Gordo has said expect a lot more player movements from now on in. I take from his broader comments that things will start to move towards other professional sports where players move at a whim/more money. If he's right about it, that beast will bite us no matter what. Especially when we are down. The key to riding these changes with success, I think, is when in a period of success use free agency and trade as best you can. Get as many good players in (on responsible moderate to large contracts) to improve your list in your window. Like now. For when it turns, the 'old big' clubs will be launching raids on our guys no matter what. I think it was Stringer last year say footy is a business and never say never about anything. I'm not sure the one club player will be what it used to. If say Stringer was uncontracted and were are in a bottom 5 stage, we offer him $1,200,000. Collingwood is in the hunt for a premiership and offer him the same cash. I think he'd leave for the same money and chance at another premiership. So while we are currently the hunter to good players to come and get good money and a premiership or two (maybe), I'd like us to make hay while the sun shines which is this off season. Or that's my view anyway.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

You make a well reasoned and articulate case BT.
After reading your analysis i concede its not a binary decision either. With the way our finances cap wise appear you are saying we can do both; that is responsibly attemp to trade in talemt without it necessarily hobbling us in terms of retaining our own young talent.
The only contention i would make to your analysis is with reference to us potentially having to use high picks for West, Kellet, Libba amd Khamis thus preventing us from getting access to high end talent.
If we are prepared to use high picks on them in the first place dpesn't that by definition mean we view them as such and therefore we're not missing out?

If indeed we are going to need picks next year to secure these father son/zone talent and if Dalrymple does truly believe the top end talent is weak this year then it might indicate another strategy is necessary. We may need to look at trying to offload our first round pick this year or trade down and secure more picks in next year's draft?

Thanks for the detailed analysis bt. I think you make a sound case for responsible activity this trade period.

[bulldogtragic]

You make a well reasoned and articulate case BT.
After reading your analysis i concede its not a binary decision either. With the way our finances cap wise appear you are saying we can do both; that is responsibly attemp to trade in talemt without it necessarily hobbling us in terms of retaining our own young talent.
The only contention i would make to your analysis is with reference to us potentially having to use high picks for West, Kellet, Libba amd Khamis thus preventing us from getting access to high end talent.
If we are prepared to use high picks on them in the first place dpesn't that by definition mean we view them as such and therefore we're not missing out?

If indeed we are going to need picks next year to secure these father son/zone talent and if Dalrymple does truly believe the top end talent is weak this year then it might indicate another strategy is necessary. We may need to look at trying to offload our first round pick this year or trade down and secure more picks in next year's draft?

Thanks for the detailed analysis bt. I think you make a sound case for responsible activity this trade period.

Thanks, I've never been called well reasoned or articulate!

Case in point, was my inarticulate reference to the FS/Academy boys. We may need to use high picks to secure them, which is as you say, accessing good talent. What I meant to say, is that if we do need to use high picks (which is a good problem to have) then we can't really trade our first and second rounders in the next two years to trade in talented players from other clubs. The only way we could bring in talent from other clubs, in a wait and see strategy, is free agency or trading away some very good players of ours. So if we want to keep the list together for as long as possible and not trade out, then this year's top picks represent good trade currency and an opportunity. I'd rather trade out a pick this year, then say trade out a Wallis/Dahl next year to facilitate player trades.

JMac & Dahl will have to work really close to hopefully project where these boys might end up. One option is to trade for a future pick next year if Dal says we need it. The other option is to see what happens next year, and if necessary get another points pick by either (a) doing a combined pick draft points trade or (b) grabbing a teams 2018 pick for a projected lesser 2019 pick. But that could create another headache. What's likely is that some fringe players with small value may request trades and for an extra 10 pick upgrade type deal to net us additional points. The AFEL have made this such a confusing area when it's rolling potentially over several years.

The catch we agree on is restraint and responsibility. I trust JMac to wheel and deal in a way that the bigger picture is seen, beyond say the last Malthouse year at Carlton. I have no problems with spending big, but the right players on the right deals. Unlike North who are throwing $1,000,000 contracts at everyone erratically. But we will be fine.


As an aside, a complete aside to the convo, I wasn't going to start a thread but we all need to understand the inflationary effect on contracts. For instance, Nat Fyfe was a million dollar player prior to the CBA. A basic 20% rise without a performance rise instantly makes Nat Fyfe a $1,200,000 player. If Josh Kelly was a $700,000 player, he's now $840,000 without factoring in performance. So as footy fans we are going to hear bigger numbers now across players and instinctively think they're maybe not worth that. They're still taking up the same percentage of the salary cap, just inflation to the actual dollar value. On JJ I reckon he's a $500,000 player and the clubs rumoured offer was $600,000 (20%), so I'm not sure what metric his manager is working off unless he's got a secret monster offer.

[Remi Moses]

Mark Stevens mentioned on 7 News that we're into Jake Lever

[KT31]

Mark Stevens mentioned on 7 News that we're into Jake Lever

Been reported a couple of time in the last week or so, would be very happy if we landed him.

[Remi Moses]

Been reported a couple of time in the last week or so, would be very happy if we landed him.

Ditto . Would be a great get

[Dry Rot]

Who are Khamis & Kellett?

[bulldogtragic]

Who are Khamis & Kellett?

Buku Khamis - Academy
Josh Kellett - FS

Check out the father-son thread, a few of us have put a fair bit in that thread.

[Doc26]

Mark Stevens mentioned on 7 News that we're into Jake Lever

Challenge to make a trade work to satisfy Adelaide.

Bit provocative but could we make something work with Carlton and Adelaide involved that might involve TBoyd, Gibbs and Lever?

[Twodogs]

Thanks, I've never been called well reasoned or articulate!

You quote an Iggy Pop song in your sig.

Who are Khamis & Kellett?

Khamis is a highlight reel we hope to take next year as an academy pick which makes him part of the bidding process for F/S and Mark Kellett was our last great #4 before the Bont. His son can play a bit and is eligible as a F/S for us.

So we are going to need lots of points over the next couple of draft periods because lots of kids like Rhylee West and Oliver Libba are eligible next year

[jeemak]

Are rating Kellet ahead of Cross TD?

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

Challenge to make a trade work to satisfy Adelaide.

Bit provocative but could we make something work with Carlton and Adelaide involved that might involve TBoyd, Gibbs and Lever?

Yep. Will take some creative magic to make that work. Lucky we have BT to proffer a deal that would make a Philadelphia lawyer's head spin!