Thanks Thanks:  4
Likes Likes:  2
Results 1 to 14 of 14
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    32,302
    Post Thanks / Like

    Hindsight: Trading First Round Draft Picks

    I've collated first round draft pick trades from 2000 to 2014. Moreso looking for the lessons that can be learned that history has shown the clubs. Caveats are I haven't generally included complex trades where there are multiple exchanges (I.e. trades for strategic reasons) or that involve multiple players where the value is harder to identify. I haven't had time to think about what the lessons are, whether it warns against trading first rounders or perhaps not stuffing up top picks. But it does look like the practice has slowed down over the years. What you make of it, how you interpret it would be appreciated and an interesting discussion...

    2000

    Bode to Adelaide, Rehn to Hawthorn - #12 - Shaun Burgoyne
    Clement & Holland to Collingwood, Paul Williams to Sydney - #8 - eventually Daniel Motlop
    Justin Murphy to Geelong - #11 - Trent Sporn
    Wakelin > Hamill - #4 - Luke Livingston

    2001

    Croad & McPharlin - #1 - Hodge
    Farmer > Bizzell > Black > Stafford > Hall - #13 & #17 - 13 Dal Santo, 17 James Kelly

    2002

    Leigh Brown > Byron Pickett - #13 - Byron Schammer
    Carey - #2 & #18 - Daniel Wells & Kris Shore
    Daniel Chick - #8 - Luke Brennan
    Peter Everitt - #6 - Eventually Steven Salopek
    Barnaby French - #16 - Steven Gilham
    Des Headland - #3 & #19 - Jared Brennan & Troy Selwood
    Luke Penny - #17 - Cameron Faulkner
    Shane Woewodin - #14 - Daniel Bell

    2003

    Nathan Brown > Danny Jacobs > Lachlan Veale - #6 (& more) - Kepler Bradley
    Trent Croad - #10 - Rhley Dunn

    2004

    Scott Thompson > Moloney - #12 - Lynden Dunn
    Josh Carr - #11 - Angus Monfries
    Brad Ottens - #12 & #16 - AA & Adam Pattison
    Jolly - #15 - Cameron Wood
    Nathan Thompson - #10 - Chris Egan

    2005

    Fergus Watts - #17 - Darren Pfeiffer
    Jono Hay - #18 - Max Bailey
    Nathan Lonie - #14 - Grant Birchall

    2006

    Chris Tarrant - #8 - Ben Reid (& Medhurst)

    2007

    Cam Wood > Trav Johnstone - #14 - Jack Grimes
    Jordan McMahon - #19 - Callan Ward

    2008

    Nil.

    2009

    Brock McLean - #11 - Jordan Gysbert
    Andrew Lovett - #16 - McMillan-Pittard (Buyer beware)
    Darren Jolly - #14 - Lewis Jetta
    Shaun Burgoyne - #9 - Andrew Moore

    2010

    End of first round compo: Hale (Kieran Harper), Tambling (Jake Batchelor) & Sherman (Lester)
    Pick 15 from GCS to Geelong - Smedts

    2011

    Mitch Clarke - #12 - Sam Docherty

    2012

    Sharrod Wellingham - #18 - Brodie Grundy

    2013

    Ben McEvoy (& Savage) - #18 - Luke Dunstan

    2014

    O'Rourke - #19 - Eventaully Blaine Boekhurst
    Dayne Beams (& others) - #5 - Jordan De Goey and his dog
    Paddy Ryder - #17 - Kyle Langford
    Tom Boyd/Gryphone - #6 - Caleb Marchbank


    So, is there a trend? Does history tend itself to being overly cautious about trading out first rounders? Or for the right gun player, the risk is worth it? Is some fault the poor drafting from good picks? It seems some clubs have really hurt from trading out their first rounders, perhaps costing premierships equally s some clubs have won premierships from it.
    Last edited by bulldogtragic; 16-05-2017 at 09:03 PM. Reason: Updating
    Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

  2. Thanks GVGjr, bornadog, Twodogs, N/A, Mofra thanked for this post
  3. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    6,624
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: Hindsight: Trading First Round Draft Picks

    Lesson: Only trade a first round pick to a club with a terrible recruiting manager.

  4. Likes hujsh liked this post
  5. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    32,302
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: Hindsight: Trading First Round Draft Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by westdog54 View Post
    Lesson: Only trade a first round pick to a club with a terrible recruiting manager.
    There's not a lot of guns picked up through the draft picks are there? That's a very, very average list of players by and large. That adage about a bird in the bush is equal to a hand of birds, or something. I guess if the player is likely to help win you premierships (Ottens, Hodge, Jolly etc) then maybe trading out first rounders, especially later first rounders, isn't as much of a risk as some might think.
    Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

  6. #4
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    E.J. Whitten Stand
    Posts
    17,162
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: Hindsight: Trading First Round Draft Picks

    We should have known 2009 was going to be a dog of a first round. 4 teams traded out of it.
    Our 1954 premiership players are our heroes, and it has to be said that Charlie was their hero.

  7. #5
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    6,624
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: Hindsight: Trading First Round Draft Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by comrade View Post
    We should have known 2009 was going to be a dog of a first round. 4 teams traded out of it.
    Melbourne came out of the first round of that draft with Scully, Trengove and Gysberts. Luke Tapscott went with the first pick of the second round.

    That is mediocrity at its best.

  8. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    32,302
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: Hindsight: Trading First Round Draft Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by comrade View Post
    We should have known 2009 was going to be a dog of a first round. 4 teams traded out of it.
    I think our selection compounded that draft for us.

    Looking at 2002-2004 there was quite a flurry of first round draft trading. Then very little except for 2009.

    Then 15 instances between 2014 & 2016. So it looks like it's back in vogue for list managers, especially with future first round trading and the quality of the player traded is better generally too. I guess we will soon find out if the drafting is equally as good or whether landing the traded player was worth it. Looking at this history as a possible profile of future risk, getting the player you want (if he's good) is certainly worth the risk.
    Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

  9. #7
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    Hobart
    Posts
    5,864
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: Hindsight: Trading First Round Draft Picks

    All I really got from that is that players are more known quantities than picks. Some big hits and big misses in the draft. A good recruiting team is probably the biggest factor in whether the team that traded for picks won the trade

    Hunter for pick 5 anyone?
    If you kicked five goals and Tom Boyd kicked five goals, Tom Boyd kicked more goals than you.

    Formerly gogriff

  10. #8
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    Melbourne
    Posts
    4,025
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: Hindsight: Trading First Round Draft Picks

    I'm struggling to comprehend the market value back in 2002. Daniel Chick for pick 8?!?

  11. #9
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    32,302
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: Hindsight: Trading First Round Draft Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by jazzadogs View Post
    I'm struggling to comprehend the market value back in 2002. Daniel Chick for pick 8?!?
    There's some crazy stuff. Hawthorn did remarkably well, no wonder they built a premiership list with first rounders for Lonie, Chick, Croad, Hay, Jed Anderson, Thompson & Veale (Rawlings). Who a part from Chick, all went on to do sweet FA.
    Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

  12. #10
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    27,890
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: Hindsight: Trading First Round Draft Picks

    A first round pick for Lonie. How did they keep a straight face?

    They got two first rounders for Jonathan Hay too I think.
    Have you been reading those Roddy Doyle books again, Dougal!?


    I have, yeah Ted, you big gobshite

  13. Likes bulldogtragic liked this post
  14. #11
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    6,624
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: Hindsight: Trading First Round Draft Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by Twodogs View Post
    A first round pick for Lonie. How did they keep a straight face?

    They got two first rounders for Jonathan Hay too I think.
    I'm not sure how the final trades paned 2 out but Hawthorn went into the draft with picks 3 (priority), 6, 14 and 18.

    They ended up with Xavier Ellis, Beau Dowler (ouch), Grant Birchall and Max Bailey.

  15. #12
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    27,890
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: Hindsight: Trading First Round Draft Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by westdog54 View Post
    I'm not sure how the final trades paned 2 out but Hawthorn went into the draft with picks 3 (priority), 6, 14 and 18.

    They ended up with Xavier Ellis, Beau Dowler (ouch), Grant Birchall and Max Bailey.


    Was Dowler in a car accident?
    Have you been reading those Roddy Doyle books again, Dougal!?


    I have, yeah Ted, you big gobshite

  16. #13
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    6,624
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: Hindsight: Trading First Round Draft Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by Twodogs View Post
    Was Dowler in a car accident?
    Accident was pre-draft. They still took him at 6. Played 16 games in 4 seasons.

  17. #14
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    32,302
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: Hindsight: Trading First Round Draft Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by westdog54 View Post
    Accident was pre-draft. They still took him at 6. Played 16 games in 4 seasons.
    Just imagine if they actually nailed that pick & the top 10 pick on Mitch Thorp.
    Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •