The run home. Let's assume we get 5 more wins (6 gets us in, 4 or less means we miss out)


Richmond:
Rd 18: GWS (MCG)
Rd 19: Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)
Rd 20: Hawthorn (MCG)
Rd 21: Geelong (Simonds Stadium)
Rd 22: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)
Rd 23: St Kilda (MCG)
Wins: 14
Games against top 8 2
Games against fellow contenders 1

Sydney:
Rd 18: St Kilda (SCG)
Rd 19: Hawthorn (MCG)
Rd 20: Geelong (Simonds Stadium)
Rd 21: Fremantle (SCG)
Rd 22: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 23: Carlton (SCG)
Wins: 13
Games against top 8 2
Games against fellow contenders 1


Melbourne:
Rd 18: Port Adelaide (MCG)
Rd 19: North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)
Rd 20: GWS (Manuka Oval)
Rd 21: St Kilda (MCG)
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions (MCG)
Rd 23: Collingwood (MCG)
Wins: 13
Games against top 8 2
Games against fellow contenders 1


West Coast:
Rd 18: Collingwood (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 19: Brisbane Lions (Domain Stadium)
Rd 20: St Kilda (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 21: Carlton (Domain Stadium)
Rd 22: GWS (Spotless Stadium)
Rd 23: Adelaide (Domain Stadium)
Wins: 13
Games against top 8 2
Games against fellow contenders 1


St Kilda:
Rd 18: Sydney (SCG)
Rd 19: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 20: West Coast (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 21: Melbourne (MCG)
Rd 22: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 23: Richmond (MCG)
Wins: 12
Games against top 8 5
Games against fellow contenders 4


Essendon:
Rd 18: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 20: Carlton (MCG)
Rd 21: Adelaide (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 22: Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)
Rd 23: Fremantle (Etihad Stadium)
Wins: 12
Games against top 8 1
Games against fellow contenders 1

So assuming logical outcomes (again, fraught with danger this year) Saints are out with the tough run home. Richmond, Sydney and Melbourne get through on % or games. That leaves West Coast and Essendon. We must beat Essendon. Then we need to hope West Coast drop a game they shouldnt. Certainly possible. But we're still relying on other results.