As it happens, this is my PhD topic. What a coincidence.

First thing. Salary cap. They move on Hodge, Burgoyne & possibly Gibson. Now they have a good amount of space.

Second thing. Free agency. Do they use it to bring players in, or use it to get high draft picks? That is, if they bring in talent commensurate to what they lose they get no compo. They have Duryea & Schoenmakers are eligible free agents to lose, and get compo. If I'm Hawthorn, I allow them to sit in the marketplace and get a feel for what the offers will be. I can see some clubs having a fair bit of interest in both. If the offers were in the range of end of second rounders or at their high third round (or better) then I'd let them go, bank the compo and not look at bring in free agents to potentially water down or eliminate compo.

So, I've now got 4 picks around 35-40 now. Without trading. But we need to trade up the order.

First, can we identify an expansion club or academy club that need to bank draft points. Can we package two of the above picks up to get into the 20's? I hope so for Hawthorn. So let's say they can.

Say decent draft picks 25, 40 & 41 - having lost Schoenmakers (replaced by O'Brien) and Duryea (replaced by Hartung).

So now it's time to make a hard call, we are moving on a blue chipper. Stratton would have suitors, but I don't see them gutting their defence with Gibson gone. Isaac Smith would hold interest, but if they're losing silky foot skills, Smith going would compound that problem. Realistically, we need to identify players that are great in a strong side and that without the guns around them, look decidedly average. So looking to the forward line, Gunston jumps off the page. Puopolo & Bruest still impact, Rioli won't go anywhere, so we are back to Gunston.

Gunston signed on for 4 years last year at a mere $650,000 a year, apparently rebuffing $1,000,000 offers. But he didn't kick a goal in the first 3 rounds with the best defenders. If they're in for a lean time with Vickery not making things better up forward, then he's the one. For opposition clubs, he could be a massive game changer. Imagine Gunston in the Adelaide forwardline, or GCS forwardline or even the Dogs forwardline. If Gunston gets to a team where he's third banana, then those teams would be crazy not to go hard at him because he's a proven gun performer in that role/status. So he's my blue chip bait.

So what's he worth, especially in multiple clubs are after him? At minimum a first rounder and an upgrade in the second round. So using rough numbers:

Picks 15, 25, 33 & 42 - for losing Gunston, Schoenmakers, Duryea, Hodge, Gibson, Burgoyne

If they can engineer decent free agency compo, trading up in draft points trades and good trade outcomes with Gunston, then that's trying to make the best of a bad situation of their own making. The benefit is also freeing up close to $1,800,000+ in salaries, plus CBA rises. That could force a re-think of taking free agency compo this year, or they could move to accelerate some contracts and front load others and also bank down the difference in minimum salary cap payments. Then next season they could take the best two or three free agents with a salary cap war chest.

The kicker is whether they can play the longer game, or whether they feel the pressure of Collingwood, Richmond & Carlton to not bottom out for financial reasons and shove in sub standard players and stuff their list and not allow them to come back well. But Clarkson took a list in far worse state over a decade ago and made some very good moves and created a dynasty. He wasn't afraid to move on players and trade out some good players. I suspect what he might want to do will be different to what the board wants of the clubs performance. But they have options, but which ones they take will be interesting to whether they plod along or dip for a while to rise sharply in a few years. It's going to be interesting to see whether the footy department wins or whether the board wins this year as to what they do.