2012 Ladder Predictor

[The Bulldogs Bite]

That time of year again to get this thread going. Post yours as you see fit.

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1. Collingwood - Still the best overall squad.
2. Hawthorn - Should challenge, but much depends on a few players (eg. Roughy).
3. West Coast - Still young and improving. Potential to slip.
4. Fremantle - Injury free they should be up there.
5. Geelong - Bit of a slide, but home ground advantage helps.
6. Carlton - Forward half still average. They've got some holes.
7. Essendon - Fair bit of talent with solid KPP stocks. They could slide.
8. Melbourne - Simply have to make the 8.
---------
9. Sydney - Tough call to have them out. Logically they replace Melbourne or Essendon.
10. North Melbourne - Still not enough class. Harvey's older, Petrie too.
11. Richmond - Nice developing side but hard to see them making the 8. Riewoldt needs help and they haven't got depth in their mids.
12. St. Kilda - Slow, lack skill and no KPD's. Riewoldt/Goddard/Dal Santo keep them from the bottom. Big question mark on Hayes. Could slide further.
13. Adelaide - Bit hard to place. Inconsistent, but talented.
14. Western Bulldogs - Maybe a bit pessimistic. Lot depends on Cooney/Lake, but our forward line may struggle. Hard ask for Gia to boot 40 again.
15. Brisbane - Should be more competitive this year.
16. Gold Coast - Better list than those below them. Maybe finish a spot higher.
17. Port Adelaide - Terrible side.
18. West Sydney - Plenty of lean years ahead.

[Remi Moses]

Good effort there .
I'd have ( as much as it pains me) Carlton top 4
Sydney ahead of Melb( they're tougher)
I think we'll finish about 10 ( lot depends on the two mentioned)
Don't thin WC will finish that high again ( good run with injuries, and Their older players starred)
North Melb ( as much as they talk up their chances ) just haven't got the Quality talls( Petrie and Goldstein aside)haven't got that dash and elite kick of HB.
Richmonds back 6 are their biggest concern and their second tier Mids.
Freo are an interesting one. Will they remain flakey,or will they show some steely resolve?
Around the 8 for mine.Were decimated by injuries last season.
Geelong may slide, lost a lot of experience. Still top 4 material you'd imagine.
Pies and Hawks top 2 for mine. Hawks back 6 are a worry, as they get monstered by a monster. Jarryd Boumann will sort that out!:eek:
Pies, Dorks, Handbaggers , navy blue vermin.
The rest you could literally throw a blanket around.
Port, lions, GC , Cement Heads mob bottom 4

[Go_Dogs]

1. Collingwood - to finish top, but no certainty for the flag
2. Hawks - definitely top 4
3. West Coast - as above
4. Geelong - as above, maybe slight decline, another year, some players coming back from serious injury etc
5. Carlton - again around the mark but not quite there
6. Fremantle - could press for top 4, or miss the 8
7. North - think they have a few solid players and good youngsters, around the mark for finals
8. Sydney - could see us being here, and a couple of others but gave Swans the nod for consistency

9. Richmond (ha) - improving midfield, can kick goals, should be a better side
10. Bulldogs - think we could be around the mark for the 8, but how key players perform and kids hold form important
11. Essendon - don't think they'll make finals for some reason, no doubt they will prove me wrong
12. St Kilda - will slide and if one of the key movers get a long term injury it could get pretty ugly
13. Crows - another side that could improve a lot and push for the 8, or fade away meekly
14. Melbourne - another lean year or two, loss of Scully really hurts in the short term
15. Port - don't mind Port, but like Melbourne probably a few years off being a seasoned, competitive outfit
16. Brisbane - do not rate, but may be able to win a few games at home
17. Gold Coast - a few years off
18. West Sydney - a few more off again

[Bulldog Joe]

Too much negative about the Dogs.
The fixture gives us 5 winnable games to start the season and if we snag 4 of 5 we will be hard to stop.

Yes we need better seasons from Lake, Cooney, Higgins etc., but I expect us to be a very competitive side.

I see Fremantle as the improver and expect they will get the better of West Coast, but every side thinks they will either improve or maintain their standard.

No one can rise without someone falling and despite opposition supporters seeing as generally as close to the bottom I truly believe we can challenge for top 4 if we get rolling early.

Find it impossible to categorise the whole league, but see Port as going nowhere and GWS as uncompetitive. Also expect St Kilda to slide more than anyone else. I am prepared to be surprised by more than 1 team.

[AndrewP6]

1. Collingwood - Can't see anyone getting near them.
2. Hawthorn - THink they'll be right up there.
3. Geelong - Surprised me in 2011, I thought they'd slide. Reckon they'll hang around top 3 this year.
4.West Coast - some good improvement from them.
5 Fremantle - Again they surprised me, reckon they'll be a solid top 4. Hopefully Lyon puts the mozz on them.
6. Carlton - Not as great as they think they are (or at least some of their supporters I know!)
7. Essendon - To me, they sort of tease at being really good.
8. Melbourne - Interesting to see what Neeld does with them in the PTS-era (post Tom Scully)
---------
9. Sydney - Could sneak in the eight, but I had to put them somewhere!
10. St. Kilda - THis may be where I want them to finish (not above us, just missing finals!), rather than where they actually will.
11 Western Bulldogs - Paul might get some improvement, but not enough for us to see September action. Too much improvement required from too many - Higgins, Hargrave, Lake and Cooney (after last year's debacle), Grant, Jones. Can't see us being able to kick enough winning scores. Is Ayce Cordy EVER going to make any impression on the 22?
12.North Melbourne - Not classy enough. Their best are older.
13 Richmond -Have improved, but not enough talent overall
14 Adelaide -Dunno what to make of them. Could surprise me and finish a few spots higher.
15. Brisbane - Don't rate them, and they stole The Beard :)
16. Gold Coast - Could snag a few that inch them up the ladder.
17. Port Adelaide - Poo.
18. West Sydney - REALLY young and REALLY REALLY OLD.

[Bulldog Joe]

Had another look at this and went through the fixture as I believe when and where you meet other teams really does impact the results.

Perhaps my optimism for the Dogs shows, but I did try to look at on a week to week and collated the results only after going through the entire fixture.

I was even surprised myself by the results I ended up with.

Fremantle - I feel they will be better than West Coast and gave them the derbies, but then found their away games just have more they should win than normal.
Hawthorn Obviously should be right there
Geelong Should remain very good
Western Bulldogs I concede bias, but just like the way the fixture rolls and we will know in the first 6 weeks
West Coast too much advantage at Paterson's and away games in Adelaide (2) and GWS mean something would need to go horribly wrong for them to drop away.
Carlton
Collingwood
The Blues and Pies can suffer from big gamitis and that is why I see them struggling to win top 4 quantity. I also see a high win percentage required (12 wins can miss finals) because of the weaknes I see in the bottom 4 or 5 teams.

Essendon
North Melbourne
Sydney
St Kilda
Brisbane
Adelaide
Gold Coast
Melbourne
Richmond
Port Adelaide
GWS

Of course I expect to be way off and some of my bottom 6 could surprise. I would think Melbourne is most likely to do that as they have lots of good picks and they have had the biggest overhaul in coaching including a quality fitness coach.

[AndrewP6]

Had another look at this and went through the fixture as I believe when and where you meet other teams really does impact the results.

Perhaps my optimism for the Dogs shows, but I did try to look at on a week to week and collated the results only after going through the entire fixture.

I was even surprised myself by the results I ended up with.

Fremantle - I feel they will be better than West Coast and gave them the derbies, but then found their away games just have more they should win than normal.
Hawthorn Obviously should be right there
Geelong Should remain very good
Western Bulldogs I concede bias, but just like the way the fixture rolls and we will know in the first 6 weeks
West Coast too much advantage at Paterson's and away games in Adelaide (2) and GWS mean something would need to go horribly wrong for them to drop away.
Carlton
Collingwood
The Blues and Pies can suffer from big gamitis and that is why I see them struggling to win top 4 quantity. I also see a high win percentage required (12 wins can miss finals) because of the weaknes I see in the bottom 4 or 5 teams.

Essendon
North Melbourne
Sydney
St Kilda
Brisbane
Adelaide
Gold Coast
Melbourne
Richmond
Port Adelaide
GWS

Of course I expect to be way off and some of my bottom 6 could surprise. I would think Melbourne is most likely to do that as they have lots of good picks and they have had the biggest overhaul in coaching including a quality fitness coach.

You're expecting the Pies to go from 1st to 7th? Wow. Haven't they only lost something like 4 games in two years?

[Remi Moses]

I've got a pathological dislike of the Pies as the normal non-pie,can't see them finishing outside the top 4.

[the banker]

First 6 weeks to tell the tale for us. Game one like last year a litmus.

Hawthorn
Collingwood
Freo
Geelong
Blues
West coast
Dogs
Bombers

Dees
Norf
Richmond
Saints
Swans
Adelaide
Lions
Gold coast
Port
Gws

[Bulldog Joe]

You're expecting the Pies to go from 1st to 7th? Wow. Haven't they only lost something like 4 games in two years?

It is hard to maintain form and they approach 2012 with a few potential issues.

What effect will Buckley have?
Will they lose the team effect for personal glory?
Can Jolly come up and without Leigh Brown, who gave them a point of difference over the last 2 years.
Speculation on out of contract players.

How much was the results of the last 2 years about talent and how much was about game plan. Geelong smashed the game plan.

Collingwood also have a tough fixture (without the travel)
I think Hawthorn and Geelong will have their measure and they can drop some of the blockbusters. A loss to each of Carlton, Essendon and Melbourne is on the cards because of the nature of those games to their opponents. Lose to West Coast in Perth and they could lose 8 games without an upset loss to someone like us or Sydney. Because of the weakness at the bottom 10 losses can miss the 8.

Of course they could be dominant and win everything but the teams they must play twice does make it difficult.

[Mantis]

BJ,

Can we have a bet that Collingwood finish above us on the ladder?

I will even give you odds to make it fair.

[Bulldog Joe]

BJ,

Can we have a bet that Collingwood finish above us on the ladder?

I will even give you odds to make it fair.

Not generally keen to bet on that sort of outcome as an either or. However, I might have a couple of wagers on Freo to finish top 4 and us to make the 8 because those are over the odds with the betting agencies.

I think I could effectively get better odds with a few different options there.

Feel free to come back to me through the year and point out how far off I am.

[DragzLS1]

Depending on how fit Lake, Cooney can get and how many games they play along with Morris will be 1 of the key factors on us either scrapping into the 8, or just missing out on the 8. I see us finishing anywhere from 11th - 7th but alot relies on these players and our forward line having a decent run.

As for Freo top 4, I wouldnt mind putting some money on that ;) they have had a very very bad run with injuries.

Collingwood
Hawthorne
Geelong
Freo
West Coast - if they have another good run with injuries
Blues
Sydney
Dogs

Bomber
Melbourne
Adelaide
North
Richmond
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Port
GWS

[LostDoggy]

BJ,

Can we have a bet that Collingwood finish above us on the ladder?

I will even give you odds to make it fair.

I'll bet you $5. Just for kicks.

My top 8 (don't think the rest is 1. easy to pick or 2. of any importance):

1. Hawthorn - injury-free, they are a very dangerous side and I think this year they'll dominate.
2. Geelong - I might have had them lower, but they bite me every year. Every year we think “this year they'll slide” but they surprise us again and again.
3. Collingwood - a few changes, a new coach, won't slip far but won't be top.
4. Carlton - no real focal point up forward, but this just gives them some unpredictability. Lots of talented kids with yet another preseason in them.
5. Fremantle - as TBB said, a quality side when all on the park. Again, lots of talented kids with another preseason in them.
6. West Coast - I may be biased, but agree again with TBB, young and improving and will slide a bit until they find some consistency.
7. Sydney - I like the Swans. I like the way they go about it. They'll be in the 8 this year for sure. Tough, team-first football.
8. Dogs - I've got us in the eight because I truly believe we can do it. I've got us 8th to try and be realistic about it.

Richmond 9th. :)

Hawks v Carlton GF, Hawks the premier.

[G-Mo77]

Hawks v Carlton GF, Hawks the premier.

Hawthorn/Collingwood Grand Final with Hawks winning IMO.

1. Hawthorn
2. Collingwood
3. Carlton
4. Geelong
5. Essendon
6. West Coast
7. Adelaide
8. Richmond
---------
9. Fremantle
10. St. Kilda
11. Sydney
12. North Melbourne
13. Melbourne
14. Western Bulldogs (Don't think we'll be anywhere near it this season unfortunately)
15. Brisbane
16. Gold Coast
17. Port Adelaide
18. West Sydney

Positions 7 - 13 I think you could put anywhere in those positions. Pretty certain on the teams 1 - 6 and 14 - 18 will finish in that range give or take a couple of positions.

[AndrewP6]

It is hard to maintain form and they approach 2012 with a few potential issues.

What effect will Buckley have? Minor - He'll want to put his stamp on it, but there won't be wholesale changes to the way they go about it.

Will they lose the team effect for personal glory? No

Can Jolly come up and without Leigh Brown, who gave them a point of difference over the last 2 years. Fair point, I'll give you that ;)

Speculation on out of contract players. Won't have any impact on a professional outfit like that.

[Bulldog Joe]

Without going through and requoting, I think it will be fascinating to see how things unfold at Collingwood. If they do lose a few games the relationship between Buckley and the players may be tested. There is not likely to have the aura of "doing it for Mick" that was there in 2011.
They do have 3 losable games in the first 5 (Hawthorn, Carlton and Essendon on ANZAC day).

I am not saying they will lose all 3 but how would they react if they did?

[jazzadogs]

Without doing a full ladder, and without any in depth analysis of their list, I don't think the Lions will do as badly as some expect. Their young players are actually quite promising from what I've seen, admittedly with a lot still relying on injuries to players like Brown, Merrett, Black, Rockliff. They've blooded a decent number of good kids in the last year or two, and I think they will start to benefit a bit more this year. Not expecting them to challenge the 8, but I think they'll do better than bottom 4.

The two WA teams will be very interesting to watch. Will Lyon be able to manage the Freo youngsters effectively, and implement a game plan which suits their style? Will WCE be able to build upon their success in 2011, with continued improvement in their 18-24 year olds, or will the oldies fall down with no-one to pick up the pieces?

As for the Dogs, I think we should realistically have a season slightly better than last year. With more games into Jones, Dahlhaus, Wood, Libba, Tutt etc and increased output from Lake and Cooney, we surely can't do worse?

[Go_Dogs]

Had another look at this and went through the fixture as I believe when and where you meet other teams really does impact the results.

Perhaps my optimism for the Dogs shows, but I did try to look at on a week to week and collated the results only after going through the entire fixture.

Just having a close look at our fixture, and I think we'll end up somewhere between 9-12 wins.

We could easily be 3-7 when we have our bye as we play some tough teams, some teams around our mark at their home ground etc. The only matches I'm confident about are Melbourne, GWS and GC. Crows, Saints and North all potentially winnable, but no certainties.

Having to play Geelong and then Swans in Sydney after going to Darwin is going to be a tough lead up to the bye.

We then get a couple of games we should win against Port and Brisbane, a tough game against Essendon before another very tough 3 weeks including Freo at Perth, followed by Hawthorn and Carlton.

The last 6 rounds should include some games we'll win and maybe we'll be able to finish strongly as players who haven't done full pre-seasons are fully conditioned and back in good form, etc. It could go the other way and get pretty ugly.

Depressing post, I'm sorry, but I think we need to be realistic about our expectations this year. There's definitely a chance we can play finals, but really we should be content to see how the new coach can develop our younger players and our squad to again be contending for grand finals and premierships. If it comes together this year that would be an unbelievable result IMO. (That said - I'm sure once the pre-season games start and we go alright I'll be calling us finals certainties ;) )

[Bulldog Joe]

Just having a close look at our fixture, and I think we'll end up somewhere between 9-12 wins.

We could easily be 3-7 when we have our bye as we play some tough teams, some teams around our mark at their home ground etc. The only matches I'm confident about are Melbourne, GWS and GC. Crows, Saints and North all potentially winnable, but no certainties.Having to play Geelong and then Swans in Sydney after going to Darwin is going to be a tough lead up to the bye.

We then get a couple of games we should win against Port and Brisbane, a tough game against Essendon before another very tough 3 weeks including Freo at Perth, followed by Hawthorn and Carlton.

The last 6 rounds should include some games we'll win and maybe we'll be able to finish strongly as players who haven't done full pre-seasons are fully conditioned and back in good form, etc. It could go the other way and get pretty ugly.

Depressing post, I'm sorry, but I think we need to be realistic about our expectations this year. There's definitely a chance we can play finals, but really we should be content to see how the new coach can develop our younger players and our squad to again be contending for grand finals and premierships. If it comes together this year that would be an unbelievable result IMO. (That said - I'm sure once the pre-season games start and we go alright I'll be calling us finals certainties ;) )

The early games are key and we are no chance of figuring if we don't start the season well. While you see only 3 wins in the first 10, I see 6 wins in the first 8 as a real possibility. The first 5 are all winnable.

[LostDoggy]

Without going through and requoting, I think it will be fascinating to see how things unfold at Collingwood. If they do lose a few games the relationship between Buckley and the players may be tested. There is not likely to have the aura of "doing it for Mick" that was there in 2011.
They do have 3 losable games in the first 5 (Hawthorn, Carlton and Essendon on ANZAC day).

I am not saying they will lose all 3 but how would they react if they did?

If they drop away early in the season, due to any number of reasons, there's also the pressure of defending their succession plan, which has been constantly critiqued since the minute it left Eddie's mouth. “Why did we get rid of Malthouse?” The wheels could easily fall off. Personally, I don't think they will, but it's more than possible.



Will they lose the team effect for personal glory?
No


Good point. ;)

[AndrewP6]

Good point. ;)

Haha, I don't like to mince words. Straight to the point, that's me!:)

[Dry Rot]

Hawthorn/Collingwood Grand Final with Hawks winning IMO.

1. Hawthorn
2. Collingwood
3. Carlton
4. Geelong
5. Essendon
6. West Coast
7. Adelaide
8. Richmond
---------
9. Fremantle
10. St. Kilda
11. Sydney
12. North Melbourne
13. Melbourne
14. Western Bulldogs (Don't think we'll be anywhere near it this season unfortunately)
15. Brisbane
16. Gold Coast
17. Port Adelaide
18. West Sydney

Positions 7 - 13 I think you could put anywhere in those positions. Pretty certain on the teams 1 - 6 and 14 - 18 will finish in that range give or take a couple of positions.

Not sure why there is so much love shown for the Hawks in this thread.

Isn't there rack division pretty ordinary? And aren't they are tall defender short?

Don't get me wrong, they are definitely in the mix and should be at least top 6 but I'm not sure why something they are issuing the grand final.

My best guess is that the top 5 this year will be the same as last year but not necessarily in that order. You would think that West Coast would improve and there are question marks over the ruck division of Geelong, plus their older players are close to the brink.

[jeemak]

Not sure why there is so much love shown for the Hawks in this thread.

Isn't there rack division pretty ordinary? And aren't they are tall defender short?

Don't get me wrong, they are definitely in the mix and should be at least top 6 but I'm not sure why something they are issuing the grand final.

My best guess is that the top 5 this year will be the same as last year but not necessarily in that order. You would think that West Coast would improve and there are question marks over the ruck division of Geelong, plus their older players are close to the brink.

Rack division :D

[G-Mo77]

Not sure why there is so much love shown for the Hawks in this thread.

Isn't there rack division pretty ordinary? And aren't they are tall defender short?

Don't get me wrong, they are definitely in the mix and should be at least top 6 but I'm not sure why something they are issuing the grand final.
.

In all honesty had it not been for so many injuries last season I thought they would have taken it out. If they can stay healthy I can't see many getting close to them apart from Collingwood. Their Ruck division is fine IMO. Hale has made this team very dangerous by pinch hitting ruck duties and going forward. There back half is questionable and no they don't have a real KPD but don't under estimate a good team defence which they certainly have when healthy.

[DOG GOD]

My ladder prediction

Cwood
Hawthorn
Geelong
Carlton
West Coast
Fremantle
Essendon
Sydney
--------------------
North
Stkilda
Richmond
Melbourne
West Bulldogs
Adelaide
Brisbane
Port
Gcoast
GWS

[Ghost Dog]

Cwood
Carlton
Geelong top three

Us to be fifth or sixth. I'm actually pretty confident about next season.

[Greystache]

1. Collingwood
2. Geelong
3. Hawthorn
4. Carlton
5. West Coast
6. Fremantle
7. Essendon
8. Sydney

9. Bulldogs
10. Norf
11. St Kilda
12. Richmond
13. Melbourne
14. Brisbane
15. Adelaide
16. Gold Coast
17. Port
18. GWS

[SlimPickens]

1. Collingwood
2. Hawks
3.Cats
4. Freo (Will surprise a few this year)
5. Carlton
6. WCE
7. St Kilda
8. Essendon

9. Sydney
10.Norf
11. Dogs
12. Melbourne
13. Tigers
14. Adelaide
15.Brisbane
16. Port
17.Gold coast
18. GWS

[bornadog]

1. Collingwood
2. Geelong
3. Hawthorn
4. Carlton
5. West Coast
6. Fremantle
7. Essendon
8. Sydney

9. Bulldogs
10. Norf
11. St Kilda
12. Richmond
13. Melbourne
14. Brisbane
15. Adelaide
16. Gold Coast
17. Port
18. GWS

Hopefully I am wrong, but agree Dogs to just miss.

[KT31]

1. Geelong
2. Collingwood
3. West Coast
4. Hawthorn
5. Fremantle
6. Carlton
7. Bulldogs
8. Essendon

9. St Kilda
10. Norf
11.Richmond
12. Melbourne
13. Sydney
14. Brisbane
15. Adelaide
16. Gold Coast
17. Port
18. GWS

[LostDoggy]

1. Hawthorn
2. West Coast
3. Carlton
4. Collingwood
5. North Melbourne
6. Geelong
7. Melbourne
8. Essendon
---------
9. Richmond (pleeeze)
10. Fremantle
11. Sydney
12. Western Bulldogs
13. St. Kilda
14. Adelaide
15. Brisbane
16. Gold Coast
17. Port Adelaide
18. West Sydney Muppetiers

Got to get it down so I can look back after 12 rounds

[KT31]

1. Hawthorn
2. West Coast
3. Carlton
4. Collingwood
5. North Melbourne
6. Geelong
7. Melbourne
8. Essendon
---------

Big drop from grace for the premiers and a team that has won three flags in six seasons.
North and Melbourne, not to many would predict this ?

[Remi Moses]

Can't see Norf finishing above the Cats, one of Norf, Melbourne or Richmond making the eight.
Lot of the so called experts have Sydney falling out!

[LostDoggy]

Big drop from grace for the premiers and a team that has won three flags in six seasons.
North and Melbourne, not to many would predict this ?

I think North will surprise many and the cats retirements will cause some grief. The ladder always flexes more than people think year on year - dogs were badly hit by jono's retirement last year as well as hall hitting the wall. I think Geelong will fall. North look primed to me and Melbournes list, new coach and Mitch Clarke up forward will make a huge dent IMO. All that plus I like to take a risk and go out on a limb :)

[LostDoggy]

Big drop from grace for the premiers and a team that has won three flags in six seasons.
North and Melbourne, not to many would predict this ?

If the thread was "who were the best teams of '11" then its really simple:

Cats, Filth, Pooshirt wearing team and blues or eagles.

Every year, however, teams step radically up and radically down.

Based on their current lists, which look balanced and with decent game time, I'm predicting Norf and Melbourne will be the radical risers and Cats to fade (as we did) pretty heavily due to the retirements they've had. Davis and others will hurt the pies as well as Buckley being new but I accept 4th was hope rather than evidentially based.

Happy 2 leave the obvious ladders to others as they rarely pan out year on year and I'm a risk taker anyway. Min 2 changes into the 8 this year IMO.

Anyway - what am I risking except pride? Norf have been our bunnies for 3 seasons in many respects but I suspect that will turn pretty heavily this year.

Happy with my ladder anyway :)