The Underdog
12-06-2013, 11:28 PM
WHERE AND WHEN: Etihad Stadium, Sunday June 16, 4.40pm
TEAMS:
COLLINGWOOD v WESTERN BULLDOGS
Collingwood
B: Nathan Brown, Ben Reid, Heritier O'Brien
HB: Heath Shaw, Nick Maxwell, Marley Williams
C: Steele Sidebottom, Brent Macaffer, Luke Ball
HF: Jamie Elliott, Quinten Lynch, Dane Swan
F: Ben Kennedy, Travis Cloke, Josh Thomas
Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Jarryd Blair
Int (from): Kyle Martin, Ben Sinclair, Paul Seedsman, Sam Dwyer
Emer: T.Broomhead, Alan Didak, Adam Oxley
In: S.Dwyer, J.Elliott
Out: A. Didak, A. Oxley
Western Bulldogs
B: Brett Goodes, Jordan Roughead, Michael Talia
HB: Jason Johannisen, Dale Morris, Dylan Addison
C: Adam Cooney, Matthew Boyd, Jack Macrae
HF: Robert Murphy, Liam Jones, Ryan Griffen
F: Daniel Giansiracusa, Jake Stringer, Luke Dahlhaus
Foll: Will Minson, Tom Liberatore, Nick Lower
Int (from): Lukas Markovic, Liam Picken, Koby Stevens, Clay Smith
Emer: Tom Campbell, Mitch Wallis, Nathan Hrovat
In: M.Boyd, A.Cooney, L.Markovic,
Out: T.Williams (shoulder), M. Wallis, N. Hrovat,
LAST FIVE TIMES
R6, 2012: Collingwood 15.8 (98) d Western Bulldogs 11.11 (77) at Etihad Stadium
R6, 2011: Collingwood 15.15 (105) d Western Bulldogs 8.9 (57) at the MCG
1QF, 2010: Collingwood 17.22 (124) d Western Bulldogs 8.14 (62) at the MCG
R11, 2010: Collingwood 17.11 (113) d Western Bulldogs 16.7 (103) at Etihad Stadium
R1, 2010: Collingwood 19.15 (129) d Western Bulldogs 13.15 (93) at Etihad Stadium
(Sad isn’t it?)
KEY STATS:
All stats are averages per game
Stats Collingwood
Disposals 373.1
Clearances 35.2
1% 43.2
Contested possessions 140.2
Uncontested Possessions 229.7
Inside 50’s 55.2
Rebound 50’s 33.9
Marks inside 50 13.9
Effective Disposals 72.2
Points For 95.73
Points against 90.64
Tackles 62.6
Frees For 18.0
Frees Against 17.3
Stats Bulldogs
Disposals 348.9
Clearances 40.3
1% 46.9
Contested possessions 150.2
Uncontested Possessions 197.4
Inside 50’s 47.3
Rebound 50’s 37.8
Marks inside 50 7.7
Effective Disposals 69.2
Points For 78.9
Points against 102.7
Tackles 65.6
Frees For 21.3
Frees Against 21.4
Stats sourced from afl.com.au
FORM:
Collingwood: The Pies come off predictably convincing wins against Brisbane & Melbourne which are probably slightly more impressive for the amount of younger players being injected into the side, mainly through necessity. These followed a couple of disappointing losses to the Swans and Dockers which were sandwiched around their most impressive win of the season, a 6 point defeat of Geelong at the MCG. Missing key players like Dale Thomas, Dayne Beams, Ben Johnson and Alan Toovey hasn’t helped. Seem to have dropped off from the top tier of teams at the moment although they still have serious quality through all lines.
Western Bulldogs: Two game win streak you say? What has impressed me most in the last 2 games has been the ability to start hanging in, in games, while the other team has momentum. The 2nd half of the 2nd quarter against St.Kilda would have been where a team blew us away prior, but hanging in there kept us close enough to have a chance in the 2nd half. To be fair, Port Adelaide let us off the hook in the first half in Darwin but the fortitude the team showed, when essentially a man down in the 2nd half , was very impressive. Our skill level is still appalling at times and we’re worst in the league for effective disposal. This week should see the return of Boyd & Cooney, while Tory Dickson should be available to make a return for Williamstown. The somewhat predictable loss of Tom Williams has re-opened the gap for a tall forward/2nd ruck which with the injuries to Cordy & Roberts probably leaves a return open for Lucas Markovic. Koby Stevens should be available to play after a fairly heroic past 2 weeks.
Match-ups (Some likely, some, not so much):
Lower vs. Pendlebury: The conundrum every time against Collingwood, to tag Swan or Pendlebury? Swan beats you with constant movement and accumulation. Pendlebury beats you with quality finishing. Neither are super fast so Lower isn’t a terrible match for either. I’d start Lower on Pendlebury and leave Boyd to go head to head with Swan. If it’s not working you could go the other way but restricting Pendlebury’s capacity to deliver is crucial.
Griffen vs. Ball: Ball seems to be taking the run with roles since his return, although I don’t see the match-up with Griff as a great one for him. Griff has the pace and strength to make things hard for Ball, although Ball can certainly make a nuisance of himself winning his own ball and being a part of Collingwood’s forward movement.
Roughhead vs. Cloke / Talia vs. Lynch: With Tom Young out for a few more, Talia stays in, after his impressive performance in Darwin. Morris probably starts on one of the smaller forwards unless the Pies bring back Witts or Hudson and leave Lynch forward. You’d give the advantage to the Pies here but I like the options we have to swap blokes around if someone is getting soundly beaten. Morris is also an option for Jamie Elliott if he gives Picken the run around. Pretty glad we’re unlikely to see Krakouer out there. Regardless, supply will need to be restricted otherwise we could be in trouble.
Smith vs. Shaw: Collingwood have traditionally killed us exiting our 50 and Shaw and O’Brien are the guys who have cut us up the worst. I like Clay Smith to start with on Shaw, as he can provide physical pressure and will work hard both ways. Again Shaw isn’t super-fast so won’t burn Smith off too easily, although Shaw probably has it over Smith in the air. Probably leaves Dahlhaus or Murphy as the best option for Harry O, although Collingwood will clearly try to get match-ups that work for them (yes I mean Gia). Addison to Shaw could also be on the cards if he is selected.
Result: I’m not confident at the best of times but the Pies are a top 8 team and we’re pretty solidly bottom 5 (or worse). They’ve got too much class and run and their tall defenders Reid and Brown look far too strong for our tall forwards, whoever they may be. On the other hand we still have trouble scoring and turn the ball over like we were giving away presents to sick kids. Still these aren’t your Mick Malthouse Magpies anymore, so we should be able to hang in there if we can continue our effort of recent weeks.
Collingwood by 34 points
TEAMS:
COLLINGWOOD v WESTERN BULLDOGS
Collingwood
B: Nathan Brown, Ben Reid, Heritier O'Brien
HB: Heath Shaw, Nick Maxwell, Marley Williams
C: Steele Sidebottom, Brent Macaffer, Luke Ball
HF: Jamie Elliott, Quinten Lynch, Dane Swan
F: Ben Kennedy, Travis Cloke, Josh Thomas
Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Jarryd Blair
Int (from): Kyle Martin, Ben Sinclair, Paul Seedsman, Sam Dwyer
Emer: T.Broomhead, Alan Didak, Adam Oxley
In: S.Dwyer, J.Elliott
Out: A. Didak, A. Oxley
Western Bulldogs
B: Brett Goodes, Jordan Roughead, Michael Talia
HB: Jason Johannisen, Dale Morris, Dylan Addison
C: Adam Cooney, Matthew Boyd, Jack Macrae
HF: Robert Murphy, Liam Jones, Ryan Griffen
F: Daniel Giansiracusa, Jake Stringer, Luke Dahlhaus
Foll: Will Minson, Tom Liberatore, Nick Lower
Int (from): Lukas Markovic, Liam Picken, Koby Stevens, Clay Smith
Emer: Tom Campbell, Mitch Wallis, Nathan Hrovat
In: M.Boyd, A.Cooney, L.Markovic,
Out: T.Williams (shoulder), M. Wallis, N. Hrovat,
LAST FIVE TIMES
R6, 2012: Collingwood 15.8 (98) d Western Bulldogs 11.11 (77) at Etihad Stadium
R6, 2011: Collingwood 15.15 (105) d Western Bulldogs 8.9 (57) at the MCG
1QF, 2010: Collingwood 17.22 (124) d Western Bulldogs 8.14 (62) at the MCG
R11, 2010: Collingwood 17.11 (113) d Western Bulldogs 16.7 (103) at Etihad Stadium
R1, 2010: Collingwood 19.15 (129) d Western Bulldogs 13.15 (93) at Etihad Stadium
(Sad isn’t it?)
KEY STATS:
All stats are averages per game
Stats Collingwood
Disposals 373.1
Clearances 35.2
1% 43.2
Contested possessions 140.2
Uncontested Possessions 229.7
Inside 50’s 55.2
Rebound 50’s 33.9
Marks inside 50 13.9
Effective Disposals 72.2
Points For 95.73
Points against 90.64
Tackles 62.6
Frees For 18.0
Frees Against 17.3
Stats Bulldogs
Disposals 348.9
Clearances 40.3
1% 46.9
Contested possessions 150.2
Uncontested Possessions 197.4
Inside 50’s 47.3
Rebound 50’s 37.8
Marks inside 50 7.7
Effective Disposals 69.2
Points For 78.9
Points against 102.7
Tackles 65.6
Frees For 21.3
Frees Against 21.4
Stats sourced from afl.com.au
FORM:
Collingwood: The Pies come off predictably convincing wins against Brisbane & Melbourne which are probably slightly more impressive for the amount of younger players being injected into the side, mainly through necessity. These followed a couple of disappointing losses to the Swans and Dockers which were sandwiched around their most impressive win of the season, a 6 point defeat of Geelong at the MCG. Missing key players like Dale Thomas, Dayne Beams, Ben Johnson and Alan Toovey hasn’t helped. Seem to have dropped off from the top tier of teams at the moment although they still have serious quality through all lines.
Western Bulldogs: Two game win streak you say? What has impressed me most in the last 2 games has been the ability to start hanging in, in games, while the other team has momentum. The 2nd half of the 2nd quarter against St.Kilda would have been where a team blew us away prior, but hanging in there kept us close enough to have a chance in the 2nd half. To be fair, Port Adelaide let us off the hook in the first half in Darwin but the fortitude the team showed, when essentially a man down in the 2nd half , was very impressive. Our skill level is still appalling at times and we’re worst in the league for effective disposal. This week should see the return of Boyd & Cooney, while Tory Dickson should be available to make a return for Williamstown. The somewhat predictable loss of Tom Williams has re-opened the gap for a tall forward/2nd ruck which with the injuries to Cordy & Roberts probably leaves a return open for Lucas Markovic. Koby Stevens should be available to play after a fairly heroic past 2 weeks.
Match-ups (Some likely, some, not so much):
Lower vs. Pendlebury: The conundrum every time against Collingwood, to tag Swan or Pendlebury? Swan beats you with constant movement and accumulation. Pendlebury beats you with quality finishing. Neither are super fast so Lower isn’t a terrible match for either. I’d start Lower on Pendlebury and leave Boyd to go head to head with Swan. If it’s not working you could go the other way but restricting Pendlebury’s capacity to deliver is crucial.
Griffen vs. Ball: Ball seems to be taking the run with roles since his return, although I don’t see the match-up with Griff as a great one for him. Griff has the pace and strength to make things hard for Ball, although Ball can certainly make a nuisance of himself winning his own ball and being a part of Collingwood’s forward movement.
Roughhead vs. Cloke / Talia vs. Lynch: With Tom Young out for a few more, Talia stays in, after his impressive performance in Darwin. Morris probably starts on one of the smaller forwards unless the Pies bring back Witts or Hudson and leave Lynch forward. You’d give the advantage to the Pies here but I like the options we have to swap blokes around if someone is getting soundly beaten. Morris is also an option for Jamie Elliott if he gives Picken the run around. Pretty glad we’re unlikely to see Krakouer out there. Regardless, supply will need to be restricted otherwise we could be in trouble.
Smith vs. Shaw: Collingwood have traditionally killed us exiting our 50 and Shaw and O’Brien are the guys who have cut us up the worst. I like Clay Smith to start with on Shaw, as he can provide physical pressure and will work hard both ways. Again Shaw isn’t super-fast so won’t burn Smith off too easily, although Shaw probably has it over Smith in the air. Probably leaves Dahlhaus or Murphy as the best option for Harry O, although Collingwood will clearly try to get match-ups that work for them (yes I mean Gia). Addison to Shaw could also be on the cards if he is selected.
Result: I’m not confident at the best of times but the Pies are a top 8 team and we’re pretty solidly bottom 5 (or worse). They’ve got too much class and run and their tall defenders Reid and Brown look far too strong for our tall forwards, whoever they may be. On the other hand we still have trouble scoring and turn the ball over like we were giving away presents to sick kids. Still these aren’t your Mick Malthouse Magpies anymore, so we should be able to hang in there if we can continue our effort of recent weeks.
Collingwood by 34 points