2013 Phantom Draft

[LostDoggy]

Okay, so this is an area I’ve become pretty interested in over the last three or four years. This is my first attempt at a Phantom Draft and I realise it'll have many short-comings so I’ll be the first to put my hand up for that.

I just thought it'd be good to get some names and positions on paper to see what's on the table at draft time, especially with the Operation Tom Boyd going haywire and now that the Championships are finished.

I've used the current ladder positions of teams to determine the draft order. One thing I’ve included is the fact I doubt GWS will use their second choice, so that's taken out. I haven’t included priority picks/compensation picks - not even going there. Hopefully Essendon lose all their draft picks, but they’re currently included.

All the descriptions are my own, except where I haven't seen the player at all, which is one on my list I believe. Apologises if any sound like they're plagiarised descriptions, they're not done on purpose.

Let the discussion and vitriol begin !

(mods, feel free to fix up the attachment so it shows if you can, cheers)

[bulldogtragic]

Thanks for sharing MRM. I don't know enough to consider myself a credible judge right through, but thanks for the contribution to the board. Much appreciated.

I will spend the avo educating myself. Cheers.

[bulldogtragic]

First impressions for us quality run and carry. Best case for us if we cant land Boyd. ive Just read up on Kade K, seems a likely sort. Sheed and Kade K with the class of 2012 would represent some hope for the midfield. The forward line is the obvious failing, are there no KPFs round pick 20 that rate alongside Kade K? How do you rate Hourigan who you have going one pick after us?

BAD and others like me are shattered that young Dayle is going top 10. Goo for him though, last year just had to be.

I also like 22 and 23, " Fantasia, Clayton McCartney".

[LostDoggy]

First impressions for us quality run and carry. Best case for us if we cant land Boyd. ive Just read up on Kade K, seems a likely sort. Sheed and Kade K with the class of 2012 would represent some hope for the midfield. The forward line is the obvious failing, are there no KPFs round pick 20 that rate alongside Kade K?

BAD and others like me are shattered that young Dayle is going top 10. Goo for him though, last year just had to be.

I'm going by what MJP has said a month or so back about Dayle going early. Watched three or four matches he's played in this year and he's that far above WAFL level it's not funny. I'd have hoped he'd slip through to a second round but MJP seemed to think he'd go top ten, so based on that and the fact WC have a top pick currently, i've lumped him with them.

As for Kade K, FFS, you had to pick the one player i hadn't seen, only read about. :D

The KP fwds, particulary from SA, that i;ve rated higher are Reynolds, Harvey then Hourogan (in that order). They worked so well together, all playing different roles. Looked much better than Marsh and McCarthy who looked at a lower level, and the VM and VC guys (McCartin aside because he's a 2014 prospect).

[LostDoggy]

I also like 22 and 23, " Fantasia, Clayton McCartney".

My bias is towards bigger bodied midfielders with us currently, hence it probably reflects in the PD.

Fantasia, if he goes near where i've got him, could compliment a team that picks up Aish as their synergy for Norwood/SA could be exploited.

[SlimPickens]

Great effort MRM disagree on a couple of spots but think you're pretty much on the money.

[bornadog]

MJP mentioned in another thread that Sheed will be better at HBF for his first few years, are you happy with that?

[bulldogsman]

From someone that's done a few phantom drafts himself, well done. It's harder then you think.

A couple things.

Adelaide have given both 1st and 2nd round picks due to the Tippett saga.
I think I read GWS have activated a 1st round pick some where (mid round maybe?) and GC an end of 1st round pick. May need to confirm that.

Also, I hope we pick Aish if he was available.

[bulldogtragic]

From someone that's done a few phantom drafts himself, well done. It's harder then you think.

A couple things.

Adelaide have given both 1st and 2nd round picks due to the Tippett saga.
I think I read GWS have activated a 1st round pick some where (mid round maybe?) and GC an end of 1st round pick. May need to confirm that.

Also, I hope we pick Aish if he was available.
Yep. Adelaide no picks 8 and 25.
GWS around pick 12
GCS around pick 18
PPs and Essendon TBA

Just shuffling chairs really, MRMs FD still holds up.

.......


FLEDGLING clubs Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney will again be strong players at this year's draft after both decided to activate early compensation picks.

The Suns had three picks available to use this year and the Giants had two, but both will activate only one this season and spread them over consecutive drafts.

Ahead of Tuesday's deadline whereby clubs need to notify the League, AFL.com.au understands Gold Coast will activate its end-of-first-round compensation pick for this year's draft.

The club had to decide whether to activate that selection or the first-round pick it also holds which is tied to Geelong's finishing position.

This meant some of its decision-making process revolved around predicting if the Cats would finish higher in 2013 or 2014.

Gold Coast's final compensation selection, another end-of-round one pick, will be used in 2015.

The Giants will activate their mid-first-round pick this year.

The move adds more strength to the Sydney club's position on draft night, meaning it will have an extra selection in the top 10 or so picks regardless of its finishing position.

GWS will use its other banked compensation pick, an end-of-first-round selection, next year.

West Coast is the only other club with a remaining compensation pick, but it is unlikely to use it until 2014.

The Eagles faced a tough decision in whether or not to use the third-round pick this year but are set to leave it to be activated next year.

The pick is tied to Collingwood's finishing position and could have forced the Eagles to take four picks to the draft when under AFL rules the minimum is three picks.

[wimberga]

Thanks for the effort MRM.

What are your thoughts on Freeman? A lot of people are really starting to rate his ability to burst through packs and play with that real explosiveness that few players bar dangerfield, cooney & judd have/had?

[Throughandthrough]

Great effort, i'm impressed


Steffe the ruckman is completely incapable of kicking a footy. IMHO i wouldnt be surprised if he slips a long, long way.

[LostDoggy]

MJP mentioned in another thread that Sheed will be better at HBF for his first few years, are you happy with that?

We're short down there also. Murphy retiring in near future. Cooney working/not working/JJ learnign the ropes and Goodes questionable.

Sheed and Griff and the middle would add a lot of dash and polish to compliment Libba.

[LostDoggy]

From someone that's done a few phantom drafts himself, well done. It's harder then you think.

A couple things.

Adelaide have given both 1st and 2nd round picks due to the Tippett saga.
I think I read GWS have activated a 1st round pick some where (mid round maybe?) and GC an end of 1st round pick. May need to confirm that.

Also, I hope we pick Aish if he was available.

Didn't realise Adelaide had done it for this year also, cheers.

[LostDoggy]

Great effort, i'm impressed


Steffe the ruckman is completely incapable of kicking a footy. IMHO i wouldnt be surprised if he slips a long, long way.

Cheers T&T. I'm wondering if any out and out ruckman at this level will be picked before the late rounds, or teams will just look to the state leagues for first backups. Only named Steffe as he was a giant and i thought at least one team would secure a ruckman with a second pick, but he wasn't named with any confidence.

[Hotdog60]

I wouldn't have a clue about the up and comers but really enjoyed the read. Great effort M.R.M

[LostDoggy]

Thanks for the effort MRM.

What are your thoughts on Freeman? A lot of people are really starting to rate his ability to burst through packs and play with that real explosiveness that few players bar dangerfield, cooney & judd have/had?

He didn't catch my eye Wim. That's nothing against him, that's more a blight on me as i've overlooked him.

[Axe Man]

Callum Twomey on the AFL website has put out a list of his top 20 players at this early stage.

Phantom form guide (http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-07-05/phantom-draft-form-guide)

Dom Sheed at 17 seems a bit low given the wraps on him?

[bulldogtragic]

Callum Twomey on the AFL website has put out a list of his top 20 players at this early stage.

Phantom form guide (http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-07-05/phantom-draft-form-guide)

Dom Sheed at 17 seems a bit low given the wraps on him?
I've only seen a little of Sheed, but he would be a crazy good get at pick 17. I'd be happy to trade up to get him ala Lake last year.

No Garlett either.... He must not be reformed according to Twomey because his stats this year are rediculously great....

[SlimPickens]

I've only seen a little of Sheed, but he would be a crazy good get at pick 17. I'd be happy to trade up to get him ala Lake last year.

No Garlett either.... He must not be reformed according to Twomey because his stats this year are rediculously great....

I'd say he was only looking at the field post championships, so Garlett didn't factor.

[LostDoggy]

Great effort MRM disagree on a couple of spots but think you're pretty much on the money.

Whick ones SP ? :)

[Remi Moses]

Very good effort MRM.
Be happy with those two selections

[bornadog]

Very good effort MRM.
Be happy with those two selections

take the twin brother as well

[boydogs]

(mods, feel free to fix up the attachment so it shows if you can, cheers)

This is the list as a spreadsheet in case anyone wants to pick it up and edit it

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhHFZM7tUyeYdF9oRXZ3ejN5amlJckl5elBYOEFad2c&usp=sharing

[mjp]

Great effort. Some thoughts from me:

1. I like Kelly a lot-but think Aish and Scharenberg are clearly better.
2. Sheed at 3 is really, really high. It only takes one team I know, but he will be on the 2nd rung of mids with Crouch, Freeman and Dunstan...Taylor, Kelly and Aish will go first I think.
3. Billings is interesting...more forward than mid and small and slow...but very clever. Where he goes will be interesting. Very hyped though.
4. Lennon could go early as that HHF type is in high demand and he is the best of that sort.
5. Seems very early for Harvey and incredibly early for Steffe.
6. Hartung is unique and I think will go earlier...think Jetta (Sydney version) as a comparison.
7. KK will go quite a bit higher...versatile, aggressive and left footer.
8. I would be stunned if Gardiner lasted 10 picks. Gilles must come into it as a key tall.
9. Some say Salem is/was Metro's best player...seems low for me.
10. Way too high for Barass...Acres will fall due to injury...Fantasia is small, Honeychurch is smaller...can't see them as 1st rounders.

That'll do.

[mjp]

take the twin brother as well

JK is a good player and might be a bargain in the 3rd round...then again, Tassie lost to Nsw and more importantly only kicked 4 goals for the day...so maybe everyone's thoughts about Templeton, KK, Nankervis etc are overblown.

[Remi Moses]

JK is a good player and might be a bargain in the 3rd round...then again, Tassie lost to Nsw and more importantly only kicked 4 goals for the day...so maybe everyone's thoughts about Templeton, KK, Nankervis etc are overblown.

Thanks for your input .
Just your thoughts on McCarthy ?

[mjp]

Thanks for your input .
Just your thoughts on McCarthy ?

Going to be a good player.

[wimberga]

MJP - I'd be interested in your thoughts on what we should do with our first selection in 2013 (likely to be pick 3-5).

Do u think we package it up with something/someone to try and obtain Boyd (or someone else?)

If not, who do you think the dogs would like most? one of Aish, Scharenberg, and Kelly are likely to be available at our pick, who do u think would be best for us and if they are somehow gone, who else should we look to in your opinion?

[FrediKanoute]

My feeling is that if no deal for Boyd is done and he doesn't fall to 3 in the draft, then we should take Scharenburg. Seems a good all round player and fits the 190+ forward/back/mid the game is moving to.

[bornadog]

My feeling is that if no deal for Boyd is done and he doesn't fall to 3 in the draft, then we should take Scharenburg. Seems a good all round player and fits the 190+ forward/back/mid the game is moving to.

We will finish 17th and we will get Boyd after GWS take Scharenburg

[bulldogsthru&thru]

We will finish 17th and we will get Boyd after GWS take Scharenburg

You think Melbourne can win 3 more games?

[bornadog]

You think Melbourne can win 3 more games?

Wouldn't be surprised

[LostDoggy]

Scenario:

You're a coach/head recruiter of a bottom 4-6 team. You have deficiencies in almost all areas of the park. Across two drafts you get early picks. Do you;

Recruit talented youngsters who play against mature bodies in state leagues, complimented by Championship games, ready for almost immediate senior football, placating supporters or;

Recruit the best available at your pick, but have predominantly played private school football against underdeveloped bodies, along with Championship football. Their upside is seen as higher, but further down the track?

[bulldogtragic]

Scenario:

You're a coach/head recruiter of a bottom 4-6 team. You have deficiencies in almost all areas of the park. Across two drafts you get early picks. Do you;

Recruit talented youngsters who play against mature bodies in state leagues, complimented by Championship games, ready for almost immediate senior football, placating supporters or;

Recruit the best available at your pick, but have predominantly played private school football against underdeveloped bodies, along with Championship football. Their upside is seen as higher, but further down the track?
So the comparison using first round picks is a mature body like Stringer or a project player like Cordy. Is that the question?

[LostDoggy]

That's an extreme angle of the question BT if they were in the same draft. The question more revolves around this draft, using us as an example:

Say this draft, if Josh Kelly is rated the third best player, but needs body bulk and has played against kids, do we go him, or do we go Matt Scharenberg, maybe rated a fourth or fifth, but who,'s ready now, played against men, fits a need, but isn't 'next best'.

[Bulldog4life]

We will finish 17th and we will get Boyd after GWS take Scharenburg

Personally BAD I think we will stay where we are. So 4th pick in the draft. Can't see the Saints or Demons winning enough games to finish above us. Time will tell.

[bulldogtragic]

That's an extreme angle of the question BT if they were in the same draft. The question more revolves around this draft, using us as an example:

Say this draft, if Josh Kelly is rated the third best player, but needs body bulk and has played against kids, do we go him, or do we go Matt Scharenberg, maybe rated a fourth or fifth, but who,'s ready now, played against men, fits a need, but isn't 'next best'.
Ah, got you. Good question. I guess my comparison would be Stringer who played VFL pick 5 or Macrae who I don't think did went next pick 6. Which is similar to the positional comparison of Kelly and Scharenburg. Looking at last year I don't know whether the exposure to men is that important, but Stringer I arguably more important. Tough call.

[Topdog]

Personally BAD I think we will stay where we are. So 4th pick in the draft. Can't see the Saints or Demons winning enough games to finish above us. Time will tell.

We have 1 more winnable game and I think Saints have 2 winnable games. That doesnt mean that they win them though.

[Remi Moses]

Scenario:

You're a coach/head recruiter of a bottom 4-6 team. You have deficiencies in almost all areas of the park. Across two drafts you get early picks. Do you;

Recruit talented youngsters who play against mature bodies in state leagues, complimented by Championship games, ready for almost immediate senior football, placating supporters or;

Recruit the best available at your pick, but have predominantly played private school football against underdeveloped bodies, along with Championship football. Their upside is seen as higher, but further down the track?

Interesting hearing Derek Hine
Collingwood look at players playing senior footy against men, than the alternate of playing against kids. If its a line ball decision.

[Bulldog4life]

We have 1 more winnable game and I think Saints have 2 winnable games. That doesnt mean that they win them though.

That's right Topdog. Of course there are always upsets too. Saints beat Carlton earlier this year. Positions might all come down to the last game of the season.

[wimberga]

That's right Topdog. Of course there are always upsets too. Saints beat Carlton earlier this year. Positions might all come down to the last game of the season.

Your probably right on that B4Life.

The way I see it, we will have pick 3-5. I get the feeling that the current top 3 are looking like Boyd, Aish, Scharenberg, and then those next 2 best players look like being Kelly and Billings.

therefore, worst case scenario, we will probably end up with whichever one of those guys slips, and best case scenario, we may still be able to pick one of Aish or Scharenberg.

Does anyone get the feeling that Melbourne may not pick Aish with #2? They definitely need more midfielders but I get the feeling they may look to stay local and go with one of Kelly or Billings. I don't remember if I read that somewhere but Aish obviously didn't have a "great" championships being tagged, so maybe they will have taken notice of those other guys?

additionally, could they also take Scharenberg after his great champs?

If Aish somehow slipped to us, I would be ecstatic.

[Go_Dogs]

Great effort MRM, good read.

Also thanks for your observations mjp.

[Remi Moses]

O'rourke was meant to be available at our pick but went earlier .
Got a feeling Kelly might go earlier than everyone thinks.

[SlimPickens]

Whick ones SP ? :)

My top 10

1.Boyd
2.Kelly
3.Scharenburg
4.Aish
5.Billings
6.McDonald
7.Sheed
8.Dunstan
9. Kolodjashnij
10.Taylor.

I think you have a couple too high namely Peter Steffe (could see him rookie drafted), Lennon (not by much have him in 15-20 territory), Reynolds(20-30 range)

Otherwise I'd have Marsh (7-15 range), Hourigan (really rated his carnival which has him in 10-15 range for me).

Great effort, love your work. No doubt more will change as the year continues.

[LostDoggy]

My top 10

Otherwise I'd have Marsh (7-15 range), Hourigan (really rated his carnival which has him in 10-15 range for me).

Great effort, love your work. No doubt more will change as the year continues.

This isn't a dig at you SP but I really don't get the Hourigan hype in general. He's a big fella, can take a grab and kicks ok but he seems to have no second effort and he seems lazy. I've yet to see him work defensively - hangs in the goal square sitting on his puppy fat backside. I'd be very worried about taking him with our second rounder - see him more at about 30 +. It feels like he's getting talked up because there is no one else in the draft that looks anything like a forward but I'd hate us to take him.

Really liked Sokol's game in the WA/SA match up. Had scharenburg on him in the first half and he absolutely held his own. Prefer to have a stab at someone like him in the later or rookie rounds than Hourigan. Marsh would be a good 2nd round option but think he'll go earlier (as you note although I think he'll be late teens) and he's more a HFF I think. Very up and down passage by him in the same game showed his talent and how young he is as well!

[SlimPickens]

This isn't a dig at you SP but I really don't get the Hourigan hype in general. He's a big fella, can take a grab and kicks ok !

Think you answered your own question;). The hype for me is in his upside, he is a beast of a player who knows where the goals are. I really liked his lead patterns and he worked in well with the other talls at SA. He isn't a player I'd be interested in at the dogs but could see a number of clubs go for him with a late first round pick. Defensive efforts are the question mark but can certainly be taught.

[Remi Moses]

The problem I've got with Hourigan is that he's got so much size on his opponents it's hard to gage.
Could be like Tim Membrey and slide due to his height. Like Reynolds as a hit up and McCarthy as a tall.

[GVGjr]

The problem I've got with Hourigan is that he's got so much size on his opponents it's hard to gage.
Could be like Tim Membrey and slide due to his height. Like Reynolds as a hit up and McCarthy as a tall.
To me he is a very different player to Membrey. Hourigan can push right up the ground so I'm not really worried about his height.

[Go_Dogs]

To me he is a very different player to Membrey. Hourigan can push right up the ground so I'm not really worried about his height.

Agreed. McDonough from last year is perhaps a good comparison to draw as there were question marks over his fitness, defensive ability and ability to play his role at the higher level - he ended up going a bit earlier than I'd thought he would (and I rated him as a good prospect). I realise they are different players, but they have/had similar question marks. This just goes to show it only takes a few clubs to have a preparedness to take a punt on him improving aspects of his game for him to be taken early in the draft.

Like SP, I'm not sure he's someone that should be on our radar, but I like a lot about him and think a few clubs will have him in the mix from 20 onwards.

[Remi Moses]

To me he is a very different player to Membrey. Hourigan can push right up the ground so I'm not really worried about his height.

Different player agreed, but size wise similar. What's he like when the ball hits the turf?

[GVGjr]

Different player agreed, but size wise similar. What's he like when the ball hits the turf?
Mobile, physical and with a strong kick.