Greystache
12-07-2013, 04:03 PM
When and Where
Etihad Stadium
Sunday July 14
3:20pm
Ladder Position
Western Bulldogs- 16th
4 wins 10 losses- 76.90%
Essendon- 3rd
11 wins 3 losses- 129.86%
Last 5 games head-to-head
Round 14 2012- WB 8.8.56 lost to Essendon 23.12.150
Round 21 2011- WB lost to Essendon 16.17.113
Round 1 2011- WB 8.10.58 lost to Essendon 16.17.113
Round 22 2010- WB 17.5.107 defeated Essendon 11.12.78
Round 10 2010- WB 14.6.90 lost to Essendon 15.9.99
Selected Teams
WESTERN BULLDOGS
B: Picken Roughead Morris
HB: Cooney Talia Goodes
C: Tutt Liberatore Murphy
HF: Giansiracusa Jones Hrovat
F: Addison Grant Dahlhaus
FOLL: Minson Smith Griffen
I/C FROM: Macrae Dickson Wallis Stevens Cross Hunter Young
IN: Cross Addison Grant Picken Hunter Young
OUT: Cordy Stringer (soreness) Johannisen (shoulder)
ESSENDON
B: Dempsey Fletcher Pears
HB: Baguley Hooker Hibberd
C: Goddard Heppell Melksham
HF: Myers Hurley Stanton
F: Merrett Carlisle Kommer
FOLL: Ryder Zaharakis Winderlich
I/C FROM: Howlett Jetta Colyer Hardingham O’Brien Bellchambers Lovett-Murray
IN: Lovett-Murray Jetta Hardingham O’Brien
OUT: Watson (shoulder)
Recent Form
Western Bulldogs
The Bulldogs recent form has been moderate, winning 2 of their last 5 games with wins against GWS and Port Adelaide, but also very disappointing losses to Melbourne by 3 points and Richmond by 60. It’s a transition year for the Dogs with the make up of the side from week to week including between 12 and 16 players with less than 50 games. Kicking goals has been an issue for the Dogs with only GWS and Melbourne scoring less for the season, but stopping the opposition has proved difficult too with only 3 teams conceding more scores against.
These two issues combined point to why the Bulldogs sit in 16th place.
Essendon
Despite preseason controversy and the constant cloud of a performance enhancing drug investigation hanging over their heads the Bombers have continued to defy the odds. Essendon has won 4 of its 6 games against fellow top 8 sides, and other than a shock loss to Brisbane in round 8, the Bombers have easily accounted for the lower ranked teams.
One thing that has stood out in 2013 is Essendon’s ability to win tight contests and to come from behind late in games to get the win. Despite intense media scrutiny and the calling for the head of James Hird and the resignation of CEO Ian Robson, Essendon seem to have used it all to help galvanise the team.
Key Match Ups
Hurley vs Talia
Hurley is a vastly overrated forward based on his output and recent form suggests he’s better suited to playing in defence, however last time out against the Bulldogs Hurley equalled his career high 5 goals, and is coming off 3 goals last week. Talia has been a sensation in his second season in the AFL culminating in a Rising Star nomination during the week. Talia has blended a strong one-on-one defensive capability with the ability to accumulate large amounts of possession.
Not overly tall nor especially quick, Hurley looks an ideal match up for Talia, and with the likely avalanche of supply he will receive, Talia’s performance will go a long way to keeping the margin down.
Bellchambers/Ryder vs Minson
Bellchambers was outstanding last week kicking 5 goals and taking 10 marks, and it is this ability to hit the scoreboard that has been the big improvement in his game. He has 19 goals for the season and can provide a genuine marking target when pushing forward. Ryder has been effective at times in the ruck but his work around the ground and up forward has been patchy in 2013 averaging only 13 disposals and 4 marks.
Minson has lead the AFL in hitouts in 2013 averaging 42 per game. He has contested more ruck contests than any other ruckman in the competition contesting over 90% of all Bulldog stoppages. Averaging only 2 marks a game and kicking just 3 goals Minson has focussed his game purely to moving from stoppage to stoppage and utilising his strength as a tap ruckman. The Essendon ruck combination has the ability to hurt the Bulldogs on the scoreboard and Minson will have his work cut out for him in reducing their effectiveness.
Hooker/Carlisle vs Jones
Carlisle has had a breakout season as a key defender, he has negated some of the best key forwards while also taking intercept marks. Hooker has excelled this season in sagging of his opponent to take intercept marks, he is currently leading the competition in this area and is a key to Essendon’s rebound out of defence.
Jones has a tough job as the primary target in a battling team, and while at times inconsistent, he has also been able to take some strong contested marks and is second on the Bulldogs goal kicking tally. It’s a tough ask but Jones needs to provide a contest up forward and prevent uncontested marks being taken deep in the Bulldogs forward line.
Griffen vs Goddard
Griffen has been immense in 2013 and is easily the club’s best player. He is relied upon every week to be a match winner and if the B&F was counted today he would win by a record margin. With Essendon missing Brownlow Medalist Jobe Watson and doubts over the fitness of Stanton this midfield head-to-head match up may be a fascinating battle. Griffen could be the key to the Bulldogs causing an upset and Goddard is the most experienced midfield replacement option. Goddard has struggled throughout his career to be the number one midfielder but Essendon need him to step up, he is known for losing his temper when things get tough and I'd like to see some of the Bulldogs players get into him if the Griffen is getting on top.
Where the game will be won and lost
It’s hard to make a case for the Dogs to be competitive in any area of the ground, they are slower and less creative through the midfield, have less established targets in attack and with the loss of young gun JJ they have few option to rebound the ball out of defence and to counter attack. The best hope is realistically a competitive effort across the ground to keep the final margin respectable.
Final verdict
Jobe Watson out helps, but the Bulldogs will be outclassed all over the ground. Essendon by 60+
Etihad Stadium
Sunday July 14
3:20pm
Ladder Position
Western Bulldogs- 16th
4 wins 10 losses- 76.90%
Essendon- 3rd
11 wins 3 losses- 129.86%
Last 5 games head-to-head
Round 14 2012- WB 8.8.56 lost to Essendon 23.12.150
Round 21 2011- WB lost to Essendon 16.17.113
Round 1 2011- WB 8.10.58 lost to Essendon 16.17.113
Round 22 2010- WB 17.5.107 defeated Essendon 11.12.78
Round 10 2010- WB 14.6.90 lost to Essendon 15.9.99
Selected Teams
WESTERN BULLDOGS
B: Picken Roughead Morris
HB: Cooney Talia Goodes
C: Tutt Liberatore Murphy
HF: Giansiracusa Jones Hrovat
F: Addison Grant Dahlhaus
FOLL: Minson Smith Griffen
I/C FROM: Macrae Dickson Wallis Stevens Cross Hunter Young
IN: Cross Addison Grant Picken Hunter Young
OUT: Cordy Stringer (soreness) Johannisen (shoulder)
ESSENDON
B: Dempsey Fletcher Pears
HB: Baguley Hooker Hibberd
C: Goddard Heppell Melksham
HF: Myers Hurley Stanton
F: Merrett Carlisle Kommer
FOLL: Ryder Zaharakis Winderlich
I/C FROM: Howlett Jetta Colyer Hardingham O’Brien Bellchambers Lovett-Murray
IN: Lovett-Murray Jetta Hardingham O’Brien
OUT: Watson (shoulder)
Recent Form
Western Bulldogs
The Bulldogs recent form has been moderate, winning 2 of their last 5 games with wins against GWS and Port Adelaide, but also very disappointing losses to Melbourne by 3 points and Richmond by 60. It’s a transition year for the Dogs with the make up of the side from week to week including between 12 and 16 players with less than 50 games. Kicking goals has been an issue for the Dogs with only GWS and Melbourne scoring less for the season, but stopping the opposition has proved difficult too with only 3 teams conceding more scores against.
These two issues combined point to why the Bulldogs sit in 16th place.
Essendon
Despite preseason controversy and the constant cloud of a performance enhancing drug investigation hanging over their heads the Bombers have continued to defy the odds. Essendon has won 4 of its 6 games against fellow top 8 sides, and other than a shock loss to Brisbane in round 8, the Bombers have easily accounted for the lower ranked teams.
One thing that has stood out in 2013 is Essendon’s ability to win tight contests and to come from behind late in games to get the win. Despite intense media scrutiny and the calling for the head of James Hird and the resignation of CEO Ian Robson, Essendon seem to have used it all to help galvanise the team.
Key Match Ups
Hurley vs Talia
Hurley is a vastly overrated forward based on his output and recent form suggests he’s better suited to playing in defence, however last time out against the Bulldogs Hurley equalled his career high 5 goals, and is coming off 3 goals last week. Talia has been a sensation in his second season in the AFL culminating in a Rising Star nomination during the week. Talia has blended a strong one-on-one defensive capability with the ability to accumulate large amounts of possession.
Not overly tall nor especially quick, Hurley looks an ideal match up for Talia, and with the likely avalanche of supply he will receive, Talia’s performance will go a long way to keeping the margin down.
Bellchambers/Ryder vs Minson
Bellchambers was outstanding last week kicking 5 goals and taking 10 marks, and it is this ability to hit the scoreboard that has been the big improvement in his game. He has 19 goals for the season and can provide a genuine marking target when pushing forward. Ryder has been effective at times in the ruck but his work around the ground and up forward has been patchy in 2013 averaging only 13 disposals and 4 marks.
Minson has lead the AFL in hitouts in 2013 averaging 42 per game. He has contested more ruck contests than any other ruckman in the competition contesting over 90% of all Bulldog stoppages. Averaging only 2 marks a game and kicking just 3 goals Minson has focussed his game purely to moving from stoppage to stoppage and utilising his strength as a tap ruckman. The Essendon ruck combination has the ability to hurt the Bulldogs on the scoreboard and Minson will have his work cut out for him in reducing their effectiveness.
Hooker/Carlisle vs Jones
Carlisle has had a breakout season as a key defender, he has negated some of the best key forwards while also taking intercept marks. Hooker has excelled this season in sagging of his opponent to take intercept marks, he is currently leading the competition in this area and is a key to Essendon’s rebound out of defence.
Jones has a tough job as the primary target in a battling team, and while at times inconsistent, he has also been able to take some strong contested marks and is second on the Bulldogs goal kicking tally. It’s a tough ask but Jones needs to provide a contest up forward and prevent uncontested marks being taken deep in the Bulldogs forward line.
Griffen vs Goddard
Griffen has been immense in 2013 and is easily the club’s best player. He is relied upon every week to be a match winner and if the B&F was counted today he would win by a record margin. With Essendon missing Brownlow Medalist Jobe Watson and doubts over the fitness of Stanton this midfield head-to-head match up may be a fascinating battle. Griffen could be the key to the Bulldogs causing an upset and Goddard is the most experienced midfield replacement option. Goddard has struggled throughout his career to be the number one midfielder but Essendon need him to step up, he is known for losing his temper when things get tough and I'd like to see some of the Bulldogs players get into him if the Griffen is getting on top.
Where the game will be won and lost
It’s hard to make a case for the Dogs to be competitive in any area of the ground, they are slower and less creative through the midfield, have less established targets in attack and with the loss of young gun JJ they have few option to rebound the ball out of defence and to counter attack. The best hope is realistically a competitive effort across the ground to keep the final margin respectable.
Final verdict
Jobe Watson out helps, but the Bulldogs will be outclassed all over the ground. Essendon by 60+