Happy Days
01-05-2014, 01:23 AM
Match Preview - Round 7 Vs Essendon
Last Time We Met
Bulldogs 14.6 90
Pricks 18.13 121
Otherwise remembered as the day we all fell in love with The Rat. Anyone else remember that advantage call? That was some bull-shit. I'm still not willing to admit we lost this game, because we !*!*!*! didn't.
3 Reasons To Hate Essendon
1. The entire 2013 season. Seriously this could not have been scripted to look any more stupid. Club all takes drugs, oh, no we didn't, oh well, we did but they weren't illegal, oh well they were but SHUT UP.
Personal Highlights include:
- Mark "Spiked Frothies" McVeigh's rant about how they only took vitamins "mate" and subsequent telling all the "haters" where to go. I'd say his head was in the sand, but that would imply that he knew how to dig a hole
- Tania Hird rocking the mic. The best promo work this side of Stone Cold. It actually all sort of reminded me of the bizarro version of the McMahon Vs Austin feud of the late 90's, in that everyone wanted to see everyman Hird fall.
- James' rise to deity. I'd keep making jokes about what he'd do next and then the dickhead would ACTUALLY GO AND DO THEM. Exhibit A:
448
Right on James! You know who else had a big return? JESUS. I think Hird's will be more talked about though. At least that's what he told me.
2. Cultural Ambassador/Proficient Groin Striker Michael "Surly" Hurley. Seriously overrated footballer. Remember that game where he kicked Essendon into the worst finals series ever? Yeah that was like 6 years ago. This is as good as it gets for Hurley; a middling key defender who gets torched by anyone who can get up (so obviously excluding Hird) to a slow amble. Terrible haircut.
3. David Myers. The OG tall midfield revolutionary prospect, despite never setting foot in the centre circle. Can kick it about 60 meters but never to anyone. Probably the single most outside player in the league - will drop the ball at any body pressure. You could staple him to his man's jersey and he still wouldn't lay a tackle.
What am I talking about. I LOVE David Myers.
Selection Table
Us
I know he's done that weird "he was terrible, but stop scapegoating him" thing that players tend to do through the week that mindwarps you into thinking they've gotta play, but Jones has gotta go. Gave us so so little and Campbell is a much better option not only in general, but when given the partial Fev-zone to work with (see Q1 last week). Honestly, I wouldn't even replace him with a forward; I think if Stringer can play like he did when swung last weekthen we're just as likely to kick a winning score between Campbell, String, Crameri, the little guys and the mids (more on how we won't later) than we are with those guys plus Jones. But more because all the forwards we would bring in are...not good. Bontempelli in would be totally cool.
Other than that, Morris in for Young and Tutt for Jong would be my moves. Smith, Wal and JJ are all possibilities too.
Them
I can forsee a couple of changes here. Firstly the obvious; there is absolutely no way that they can play Dempsey again this week. He looked amazingly unfit, even for a guy who has been banished for being unfit, which is not easy to attain. Also, I doubt whether they have the balls to do it, but everyone on the planet knows just how awful Carlisle has been this year; Jones PLUS (or is that negative?). He's a better defender than forward, which is showing because he's been repelling Essendon attack after attack all season long.
They've got a couple of handy players to come back. Hocking and Goddard will play, as will Bellchambers if fit. Ambrose, who they were playing for whatever reason at the start of the year is fit again, but he is terrible so I don't think he comes in.
Key Match-Ups
I know I really stuffed these up last time (well, not me so much as Mitch Wallis did) but keep reading pls. I know some stuff about footy I promise!
Picken Vs Stanton
I know Picken has been in AA-form (well not really, but there's a thread about it so) this year, but seriously, which Essendon small is so dangerous that we need him down there to stop them? Anyone? Bueller?
Picken needs to go to Stanton, who is still a sub-par user but WOW did you guys see his first half last week? If he gets space then the guy is just gone. No coincidence that the Pies took over the game once they took him out. He's pretty much straight outside so Liam just has to stay on his tail all day and he can stop him. If we leave Jong in the side for whatever reason he can probably do this too (no danger of his see ball-get ball mentality taking over if he's 5m+ from every contest), but I'd feel more confident with Picken on him. If Jong does play I'd still keep Picken up the ground and use him on Merrett (or vice versa), who they are really looking to get the ball to this year.
Watson Vs Boyd
THE MEGA POWERS EXPLODE! As much as I hate they guy (and I really do hate him), Boyd has been lights out this year. He's been BOG several times, his kicking is not as brutal, and what's been most striking to me is his spacing at stoppages; he's setting up on the periphery and we're actually looking to get him the ball rather than have him get first hands on it (not always of course, that would be an affront to the ROLLING MAUL~!). If Libba breaks a tag ever then he might start playing even better.
This is why I'm good with him and Watson going head to head. Watson is a jet but is still very, very inside. Boyd hanging back a touch actually gives him time to assess where his man is at and maybe stop him for once. Plus if he plays his best footy then Boyd can give us as much hurt factor as Watson dishes out. It's playing with fire but I think it can work.
That last bit really hurt to type.
Backs Vs Forwards
Chappy's been spending most of his time down forward for them and is probably our biggest threat. I'd say just chuck Morris on him and forget about it but they have two really tall dudes who even if they suck are still really tall. I think we're dropping Young so Moz will probably have to take (and kill) Carlisle, with Talia on Daniher. Which leaves us with Wood on Chappy, which I don't mind. Finally Wood gets someone height appropriate, and has the strength to wrestle as well as speed to go with him everywhere too. And Easton's been giving us some dash in the past few weeks; if Chappy has to chase him, then who knows, maybe he'll FINALLY do that hammy we've all been just itching for him to do.
That brief insight was me saying that I'm not really scared of a goal avalanche from their forward line.
As for the other way around, well, I'll let Greystache explain exactly how and why their backline is going to carve us up;
Backline is their strength. Hooker kills teams with intercept marks when he dropsf off his opponent, we need to either go through his man or keep the forward 50 entries away from him. Fletcher plays +1 but is really only a rebounder these days, doesn't impact marking contests. Hibberd is the danger, he can defend and rebound equally as his ball use us a key to them. He needs a defensive forward or someone like Dickson or Higgins who can kick goals to make play tight. Hurley is solid but can be exposed by a quick player on the lead.
This scares the shit out of me. We lack the defensive forward play and precision kicking to shut all of their rebounders down. The way we can kick goals is if we spot up leading targets; we've had short bursts in every game (that I've seen) this year where we do this and we kick MUCH goals, it's beautiful. But then we have long passages where we bomb it to the top of the square and see the ball picked off, or worse. The temptation with Campbell in the side to do this is even greater. We have to pinpoint our guys going forward, and as Stache said go full '08 prelim and kick it to the rebounders' men. We can't stop Hibberd with anyone in our forward six so we have to look to neutralise him. This means getting the ball into good users hands all the time going forward, which means freeing up Macrae, Murphy, Higgins and...
I don't think we will do this effectively, and I think it's why we'll lose.
Stylistically
Well I pretty much just said it all up there, but a couple of other things;
As noted on 360 tonight by the gawd David King, our clearances and centre breaks are down yes, but believe it or not it's NOT all due to Libba being tagged. Rather, we've started to sag off when it's obvious we're not going to win first possession, in an attempt to curb the spread (~!).
Whilst this may sound like gospel to most of us sick of seeing forward line turnovers turn into 150m goals going the other way, I'd actually flip it on its head for this game and revert to Cracking Intm. If (big if) Picken or whoever shuts down Stanton, then the rest of their team is real real slow; the danger of getting hurt on the spread is lesser than the danger of constantly giving up first possession. We can win this game if we play like our 2013 model (shit, our 2013 model DID win this game).
I don't see us doing it.
In-Game Soundtrack
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SXr6aUFP8U
Deep Cover for all the 2 on 1s we're going to kick to. Plus for how we're gonna get 187'd.
Dons by 20.
Last Time We Met
Bulldogs 14.6 90
Pricks 18.13 121
Otherwise remembered as the day we all fell in love with The Rat. Anyone else remember that advantage call? That was some bull-shit. I'm still not willing to admit we lost this game, because we !*!*!*! didn't.
3 Reasons To Hate Essendon
1. The entire 2013 season. Seriously this could not have been scripted to look any more stupid. Club all takes drugs, oh, no we didn't, oh well, we did but they weren't illegal, oh well they were but SHUT UP.
Personal Highlights include:
- Mark "Spiked Frothies" McVeigh's rant about how they only took vitamins "mate" and subsequent telling all the "haters" where to go. I'd say his head was in the sand, but that would imply that he knew how to dig a hole
- Tania Hird rocking the mic. The best promo work this side of Stone Cold. It actually all sort of reminded me of the bizarro version of the McMahon Vs Austin feud of the late 90's, in that everyone wanted to see everyman Hird fall.
- James' rise to deity. I'd keep making jokes about what he'd do next and then the dickhead would ACTUALLY GO AND DO THEM. Exhibit A:
448
Right on James! You know who else had a big return? JESUS. I think Hird's will be more talked about though. At least that's what he told me.
2. Cultural Ambassador/Proficient Groin Striker Michael "Surly" Hurley. Seriously overrated footballer. Remember that game where he kicked Essendon into the worst finals series ever? Yeah that was like 6 years ago. This is as good as it gets for Hurley; a middling key defender who gets torched by anyone who can get up (so obviously excluding Hird) to a slow amble. Terrible haircut.
3. David Myers. The OG tall midfield revolutionary prospect, despite never setting foot in the centre circle. Can kick it about 60 meters but never to anyone. Probably the single most outside player in the league - will drop the ball at any body pressure. You could staple him to his man's jersey and he still wouldn't lay a tackle.
What am I talking about. I LOVE David Myers.
Selection Table
Us
I know he's done that weird "he was terrible, but stop scapegoating him" thing that players tend to do through the week that mindwarps you into thinking they've gotta play, but Jones has gotta go. Gave us so so little and Campbell is a much better option not only in general, but when given the partial Fev-zone to work with (see Q1 last week). Honestly, I wouldn't even replace him with a forward; I think if Stringer can play like he did when swung last weekthen we're just as likely to kick a winning score between Campbell, String, Crameri, the little guys and the mids (more on how we won't later) than we are with those guys plus Jones. But more because all the forwards we would bring in are...not good. Bontempelli in would be totally cool.
Other than that, Morris in for Young and Tutt for Jong would be my moves. Smith, Wal and JJ are all possibilities too.
Them
I can forsee a couple of changes here. Firstly the obvious; there is absolutely no way that they can play Dempsey again this week. He looked amazingly unfit, even for a guy who has been banished for being unfit, which is not easy to attain. Also, I doubt whether they have the balls to do it, but everyone on the planet knows just how awful Carlisle has been this year; Jones PLUS (or is that negative?). He's a better defender than forward, which is showing because he's been repelling Essendon attack after attack all season long.
They've got a couple of handy players to come back. Hocking and Goddard will play, as will Bellchambers if fit. Ambrose, who they were playing for whatever reason at the start of the year is fit again, but he is terrible so I don't think he comes in.
Key Match-Ups
I know I really stuffed these up last time (well, not me so much as Mitch Wallis did) but keep reading pls. I know some stuff about footy I promise!
Picken Vs Stanton
I know Picken has been in AA-form (well not really, but there's a thread about it so) this year, but seriously, which Essendon small is so dangerous that we need him down there to stop them? Anyone? Bueller?
Picken needs to go to Stanton, who is still a sub-par user but WOW did you guys see his first half last week? If he gets space then the guy is just gone. No coincidence that the Pies took over the game once they took him out. He's pretty much straight outside so Liam just has to stay on his tail all day and he can stop him. If we leave Jong in the side for whatever reason he can probably do this too (no danger of his see ball-get ball mentality taking over if he's 5m+ from every contest), but I'd feel more confident with Picken on him. If Jong does play I'd still keep Picken up the ground and use him on Merrett (or vice versa), who they are really looking to get the ball to this year.
Watson Vs Boyd
THE MEGA POWERS EXPLODE! As much as I hate they guy (and I really do hate him), Boyd has been lights out this year. He's been BOG several times, his kicking is not as brutal, and what's been most striking to me is his spacing at stoppages; he's setting up on the periphery and we're actually looking to get him the ball rather than have him get first hands on it (not always of course, that would be an affront to the ROLLING MAUL~!). If Libba breaks a tag ever then he might start playing even better.
This is why I'm good with him and Watson going head to head. Watson is a jet but is still very, very inside. Boyd hanging back a touch actually gives him time to assess where his man is at and maybe stop him for once. Plus if he plays his best footy then Boyd can give us as much hurt factor as Watson dishes out. It's playing with fire but I think it can work.
That last bit really hurt to type.
Backs Vs Forwards
Chappy's been spending most of his time down forward for them and is probably our biggest threat. I'd say just chuck Morris on him and forget about it but they have two really tall dudes who even if they suck are still really tall. I think we're dropping Young so Moz will probably have to take (and kill) Carlisle, with Talia on Daniher. Which leaves us with Wood on Chappy, which I don't mind. Finally Wood gets someone height appropriate, and has the strength to wrestle as well as speed to go with him everywhere too. And Easton's been giving us some dash in the past few weeks; if Chappy has to chase him, then who knows, maybe he'll FINALLY do that hammy we've all been just itching for him to do.
That brief insight was me saying that I'm not really scared of a goal avalanche from their forward line.
As for the other way around, well, I'll let Greystache explain exactly how and why their backline is going to carve us up;
Backline is their strength. Hooker kills teams with intercept marks when he dropsf off his opponent, we need to either go through his man or keep the forward 50 entries away from him. Fletcher plays +1 but is really only a rebounder these days, doesn't impact marking contests. Hibberd is the danger, he can defend and rebound equally as his ball use us a key to them. He needs a defensive forward or someone like Dickson or Higgins who can kick goals to make play tight. Hurley is solid but can be exposed by a quick player on the lead.
This scares the shit out of me. We lack the defensive forward play and precision kicking to shut all of their rebounders down. The way we can kick goals is if we spot up leading targets; we've had short bursts in every game (that I've seen) this year where we do this and we kick MUCH goals, it's beautiful. But then we have long passages where we bomb it to the top of the square and see the ball picked off, or worse. The temptation with Campbell in the side to do this is even greater. We have to pinpoint our guys going forward, and as Stache said go full '08 prelim and kick it to the rebounders' men. We can't stop Hibberd with anyone in our forward six so we have to look to neutralise him. This means getting the ball into good users hands all the time going forward, which means freeing up Macrae, Murphy, Higgins and...
I don't think we will do this effectively, and I think it's why we'll lose.
Stylistically
Well I pretty much just said it all up there, but a couple of other things;
As noted on 360 tonight by the gawd David King, our clearances and centre breaks are down yes, but believe it or not it's NOT all due to Libba being tagged. Rather, we've started to sag off when it's obvious we're not going to win first possession, in an attempt to curb the spread (~!).
Whilst this may sound like gospel to most of us sick of seeing forward line turnovers turn into 150m goals going the other way, I'd actually flip it on its head for this game and revert to Cracking Intm. If (big if) Picken or whoever shuts down Stanton, then the rest of their team is real real slow; the danger of getting hurt on the spread is lesser than the danger of constantly giving up first possession. We can win this game if we play like our 2013 model (shit, our 2013 model DID win this game).
I don't see us doing it.
In-Game Soundtrack
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SXr6aUFP8U
Deep Cover for all the 2 on 1s we're going to kick to. Plus for how we're gonna get 187'd.
Dons by 20.