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Rocco Jones
27-03-2017, 10:49 PM
Basically forget the ladder, forget the odds, here is the ultimate guide to how likely each side is to win the flag. Each week (or until I run out of stem/no one replies), I will rank sides from most to least likely to win our flag. I will also put a black line through teams when their season is cooked. So here goes...

1- Bulldogs: We are the champs and GWS got smashed. Morris out sucks.
2- GWS: Yes, they got smacked. But that list!
3- Cats: Winning away is always a good start. Depth the issue
4- Crows: What a performance? Let's see how that midfield goes further into the season
5- Swans: Shock loss and Rampe will hurt short term but Swans often start slow and their quality is obvious
6- Eagles: Taking out the garbage away from home is pretty big for them. Need to beat some decent sides away to be a serious threat but they have some quality. Lets see how they go without a ruck div too.
7- Hawks: Based on credits in the bank
8- Essendon: Like their medical records, their quality is highly unknown. Looked alright Saturday night and decent coverage around the ground.
9- Melbourne: Team on the rise and 3rd ruck rule will benefit a team no more than Melbourne.
10- Richmond: Can't believe I think they might be ok-ish. Some good recruiting. Real sides will expose them though.
11- Collingwood: A Grade mid.
12- Port: Huge win but will need to do more to regain my trust.
13- Saints: Overrated in my eye and Roo will hurt short term.
14- Freo: Fyfe's back....and Lyon seems really the type of a guy you'd wanna hang with after losing a lot...
15- Blues: Their kids are good, everyone else sucks or plays the wrong way or is Kade Simpson.
16- North: They are garbage.
17- Lions: They won, so I will delay the black mark for a week.

And the black mark goes through... Gold Coast. Not saying they will necessarily finish last but they are the biggest losers in the AFL at the moment.

1eyedog
27-03-2017, 11:27 PM
The Cats at 3 lolz

Rocco Jones
27-03-2017, 11:36 PM
The Cats at 3 lolz

How dare u lolz @ me 😡

srs thou, the Cats and GWS are the teams I fear most if we had to play everyone at the MCG.

comrade
27-03-2017, 11:38 PM
Eagles should finish top 4 if they can win enough games away. Good start for them.

They can't win the flag, IMO, too many flaky types but definitely will play the role of gatekeeper for other teams vying for top 4.

Crows just thumped GWS without Walker or Lever. Their transition from defence is probably on par with us and GWS, and their forward line is deadly. Could be the real deal, but are they missing a gun mid?

bornadog
27-03-2017, 11:39 PM
Hawks won't make the 8

comrade
27-03-2017, 11:40 PM
How dare u lolz @ me ��
srs thou, the Cats and GWS are the teams I fear most if we had to play everyone at the MCG.

Geelong is so weird. Full of B-C graders like Murdoch, Cowan, Ruggles, Horlin-Smith etc but they're unbeatable when playing the red, white & blue.

1eyedog
28-03-2017, 12:04 AM
How dare u lolz @ me ��

srs thou, the Cats and GWS are the teams I fear most if we had to play everyone at the MCG.

Yeah I actually fear Geelong the most but only because of the historical timeline of us v them.

Agree re. the Cows and Cokers playing deep finals and as above the Cows are light on for midfield quality.

Bulldog Joe
28-03-2017, 09:17 AM
I would rate Adelaide as the main danger and seem better since they lost danger(field).

The performance against GWS was very good.

Perhaps GWS are not the real deal. They compromised their depth by shipping it to Carlton and have loaded with injury prone experience.

Geelong was much better than I expected, but surely the lack of depth will tell.

comrade
28-03-2017, 12:51 PM
I would rate Adelaide as the main danger and seem better since they lost danger(field).

The performance against GWS was very good.

Perhaps GWS are not the real deal. They compromised their depth by shipping it to Carlton and have loaded with injury prone experience.

Geelong was much better than I expected, but surely the lack of depth will tell.

Yep, as even as it is at the top, no team is without its flaws (Bulldogs included). If we can keep it together and position ourselves well, we're a huge shot at back to back.

soupman
28-03-2017, 03:56 PM
Perhaps GWS are not the real deal. They compromised their depth by shipping it to Carlton and have loaded with injury prone experience.


The longer this pre-season has gone and the more I've heard GWS talked up the more I've doubted them.

They have an awesome list full of amazing talent, but I'm not convinced there is as much quality as everyone thinks.

Their depth will fall away very quickly if they cop injuries. That's obviously why they recruited De Boer and Mzungu. None of their reserve players are guns, because if they were they would be playing seniors, just like at any other club. GWS are not the exception to that rule, and just because they have had amazing draft picks doesn't mean they have amazing players in their reserves continually denied an opportunity.

Look at all the players they have traded so far in their lifespan. Apart from the ones that were already AFL regulars (Treloar, Tyson, Adams), there is maybe a couple who have proven themselves since. Bruce has been good, Boyd solid, Plowman ok, O'Rourke ok, Bugg ok, while Jaksch, Whiley, Frost, Edwards, Darley, Townsend, Lamb, Sumner have all largely been failures. They are all representative of the next layer of GWS players.

Don't get me wrong they are very good, but a couple of injuries will really hurt them and like any other club they will rely just as much on the hunger and drive of their list as the talent.

Rocco Jones
02-04-2017, 11:20 PM
Round 2

The real contenders
1- Bulldogs: Clutch city.
2- GWS: Took out the garbage. That list.
3- Crows: Looking deeper than last year.
4- Swans: Blood players and start slow early, we know how this pans out
5- Cats: Unconvincing but have ability to beat best.

The Eagles
6- Eagles: Unconvincing as well, but they are 2-0.

The pack
7- Port: What a start?
8- Melbourne: Team on the rise and 3rd ruck rule will benefit a team no more than Melbourne.
9- Richmond: Legit have them in 9th, no joke.
10- Essendon: Hard to predict but 2-0 is 2-0.
11-Hawks: Back in the pack and 0-2 hurts.

Behind the pack
12- Saints: I was too harsh on them last week. Being unable to get over a line turning into a bad habit though.
13- Pies: Gun mids, poor everyone else, particularly coach's box.

Young, competitive
14- North: Should have had huge win
15- Blues: Good future etc.
16- Lions: Things are looking a lot less bleak with Fagan and Beams.

The black mark goes through....Freo.

Suns and Freo really the stand out basket cases.

comrade
02-04-2017, 11:49 PM
Can't really disagree with any of that Rocco, maybe the Eagles above the Cats at this point given their home ground advantage. Can see them scraping into the top 4 on the basis of winning enough games at home & beating some middling sides away.

Rocco Jones
02-04-2017, 11:57 PM
Can't really disagree with any of that Rocco, maybe the Eagles above the Cats at this point given their home ground advantage. Can see them scraping into the top 4 on the basis of winning enough games at home & beating some middling sides away.

I've edited to put them in rungs. Eagles on own.

Topdog
03-04-2017, 09:03 AM
I think it works better in packs like that. Good stuff

comrade
03-04-2017, 09:22 AM
I think it works better in packs like that. Good stuff

Yeah, I like it.

Geelong and WC the hardest to place for mine. A poor 1 point win over a bottom 6 team should have huge question marks over the Cats.

westdog54
03-04-2017, 10:28 AM
Round 2

The black mark goes through....Freo.

Suns and Freo really the stand out basket cases.

There's bad and then there's totally insipid.

I pity the GC supporters that have actually hung around. I can't see a light at the end of the tunnel for that club.

comrade
03-04-2017, 11:53 AM
There's bad and then there's totally insipid.

I pity the GC supporters that have actually hung around. I can't see a light at the end of the tunnel for that club.

I'm waiting for the AFL to throw big dollars at Jason McCartney & Simon Dalrymple to try and save that sinking ship.

bulldogtragic
03-04-2017, 12:35 PM
There's bad and then there's totally insipid.

I pity the GC supporters that have actually hung around. I can't see a light at the end of the tunnel for that club.

Agree, even more so if more decent players request trades out. Personally, I hope we are getting into the ears of some of their player's managers. There's a heap of talented players that must want out to a real club, and play in winning teams.

Go_Dogs
03-04-2017, 06:59 PM
If Port win the Showdown, do they jump up?

Beating Sydney in Sydney has me thinking they're on track for finals, along with how efficiently they dispensed with Freo.

Rocco Jones
03-04-2017, 07:00 PM
If Port win the Showdown, do they jump up?

Beating Sydney in Sydney has me thinking they're on track for finals, along with how efficiently they dispensed with Freo.

Massive Power Ranking Points there!

Rocco Jones
10-04-2017, 12:55 AM
Round 3: Rise of the Basket Cases

The real contenders
1- GWS: Second comfy win, hate the fact but that list is crazy.
2- Crows: 3-0 and looking the best side in the comp so far. They have a pretty soft fixture too.
3- Dogs: We know we can do come finals time, would be nice to get back on track Friday.
4- Cats: Haven't been super impressive but they are 3-0 and the winningest side in 2016/17 period. They don't get much love around here but they do something right and will be thereabouts.

Ahead of the pack
5- Richmond I know, I am going there. 3-0 and don't really rate the rest highly for one reason or another. F
6- Eagles: Sure they will win 14-15+ games auto due to Subi advantage but can you see them winning a final at the G?

The pack
7- Swans: 0-3, harsh fixture coming up and injuries but unlike sides below, if they can click, they are a chance.
8- Port: GWS away next up, we will learn a bit about how legit they are.
9- Essendon: Big loss, hard to gauge still.

Behind the pack
10- Pies: Huge win and a mid to match it with the best. Lets see how they go with rocking up week to week.
11- Dees: Does a side rely more on a player than they do Gawn?
12- Hawks: 0-3 and what a hiding? Credits of past only thing saving them from being even lower...
13- Saints: Big game against the Pies coming up.
14- Freo: Black line erased. Sides should come out firing when they had their week leading up, next week will be the real teller
15- Blues: Big win, should become a pretty decent team
16- Suns: Same as Freo

Even more behind the pack
17- North Need a win...
18- Lions: Different side competitively under Fagan

Twodogs
10-04-2017, 08:49 AM
The black marker has been put away!

comrade
10-04-2017, 09:19 AM
Are we finally seeing the fruits of the AFL's constant fiddling with on field competitive balance? The draft, academies, compensation picks etc.

Results have proven this week (and last year to an extent) that no match is a 100% gimme. Yeah, there will still be some smashings if teams don't turn up with complete commitment but in general, most fans would go into a match with at least a slight glimmer of hope.