Axe Man
16-03-2021, 12:52 PM
The 20 players clubs will target in 2021 (https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/trade-hq/wreck-it-ralph-trade-special-the-20-players-clubs-will-target-in-2021/news-story/c8266f1573be37ffb21970f62fdace5d)
Several high-profile midfielders are coming out of contract at year’s end. They are among the 20 players that list managers have in their sights.
Round 1 is days away and the official trade period isn’t for months, but everything we know about the annual AFL meat market is that many deals are formulated as long as 18 months before they are officially signed.
So as AFL clubs kick off their seasons with list managers finally having navigated the COVID cuts forced upon them, who will they turn their eyes to as they go into attack mode to improve their lists at the end of 2021.
Here are the 20 gettable and not-so-gettable players list managers will be targeting this year.
1. Nick Vlastuin (Richmond)
Is Vlastuin worth $800,000 a year to a rival club?
Surely not for a half-back flanker… and yet Zac Williams just went to Carlton for a similar deal and Brandon Ellis got $600,000 as a free agent.
Talks haven’t progressed yet for Vlastuin, who will surely stay loyal to the club that helped him win three flags as one of footy’s most courageous and dependable half-backs.
But would he think twice if someone put four million over five years in front of him?
Would Essendon, which has cap space by the truckload, desperately needs leadership and just lost a star half-back in Adam Saad, at least ask the question if it can rise to respectability by year’s end?
At the very worst it would force Richmond to increase what will surely be a very worthy but short-of-full-tote-odds contract for one of the Tigers’ most important defensive cogs.
2. Clayton Oliver (Melbourne)
Good clubs don’t lose good players.
It’s why Oliver and Melbourne will sit tight to see if the Demons can prove to the uncontracted 23-year-old why it is obvious he should stay.
He has the talent to be a top-five midfielder in the game but, like Dustin Martin in 2016, he can be big on possessions and low on pure impact.
That year Martin won the club best-and-fairest with 684 touches (top five in the AFL) but only nine goals in a trainwreck of a season for his club.
For all his brilliance, Oliver has 29 goals in 99 games, and while he might never be Dusty, he can provide more bang for buck.
If he does his version of a Dusty — 37 goals and every medal possible in 2017 — the Demons play finals, but if he and they underachieve again a long list of suitors, including Carlton, will come from the clouds.
3. Josh Dunkley (Western Bulldogs)
Joe Daniher was grumpy with Essendon, tried to get to Sydney, had to wait a year, then bobbed up at Brisbane.
As much as Dunkley might hope for more midfield time this year, he is now a live target for 17 clubs who need goalkicking mid-forwards as they assess the Dogs midfield landscape in 2021.
He might fall in love with the Dogs again.
He might be too hard to extricate once more given a deal running to 2022.
But you would be mad not to at least assess his options with manager Liam Pickering all year.
It won’t just be Essendon sniffing around Dunkley at year’s end.
4. Jack Billings (St Kilda)
Billings had a good-but-not-great 2020 season, outside the top 10 in the Saints’ best-and-fairest despite playing every game.
Why wouldn’t he want to stay at St Kilda given a beckoning flag window? But suddenly the Saints have plenty of mouths to feed from a salary perspective.
As an example they will want to recontract Max King over summer and just think what kind of money that will take.
As an elite assists man who has never had trouble finding the footy, Billings’ role is so integral to the modern game.
This is his time to cash in as a restricted free agent, but would others value him more than St Kilda?
5. Zach Merrett (Essendon)
We know the score.
The free agent wants to be at a successful club filled with similarly driven athletes that are well coached with an identifiable game plan and path to a premiership.
Essendon believes it can be that by the time he comes to make a decision on his future.
And the Bombers have the cap space to ensure it’s not a financial decision.
Yet every club that believes it can be in the window with another star mid would be crazy not to already be in front of his manager asking to meet him or at least pitch their services.
6. Fischer McAsey (Adelaide)
Like many of his draft class after an interrupted debut season he isn’t yet signed up past 2021, which in itself is no cause for concern.
But the fact he can’t get a pre-season game despite injuries to Daniel Talia and Tom Doedee would have Melbourne list managers putting the highlighter across his name given the No.6 draft pick is a Caulfield Grammar boy.
It would be nothing more than due diligence in an era when many Victorians still find a way back home, like Jye Caldwell last year.
7. Callum Coleman Jones (Richmond)
Rival clubs mostly steal ruckmen instead of draft them, as much as Brodie Grundy and Tim English have bucked that trend.
Coleman-Jones is only 21, currently has four more matches of a COVID suspension to serve and at only two metres might be more of a forward than ruck-forward.
But the uncontracted Tiger has already had solid interest from GWS at the end of 2019 and looks to have something about him as a contested-marking tall.
The former No.20 draft pick would want to establish himself as the second ruck behind Toby Nankervis in the back-end of the year (with Ivan Soldo to return in 2022) or rivals will come for him again.
8. Esava Ratugolea (Geelong)
Geelong genuinely wants to play a second ruck who pushes forward behind Rhys Stanley given a return to 20-minute quarters, so there is a role there for Ratugolea (currently out injured with a small crack in his leg).
He stayed loyal despite interest from GWS in the potential Jeremy Cameron trade, believing he should reward a club that drafted him.
But he will come out of contract having only turned 23 in July this year and entering his prime as an aggressive contested marking ruck-forward.
Establish himself in the side and it becomes an easy decision for him.
Languish in the VFL and you never know who might be interested.
9. Trent Dumont (North Melbourne)
In the dog-eat-dog world of the AFL rivals will hover like vultures scrutinising North Melbourne’s list in a season when a bottom-four finish isn’t out of the question.
It means free agents like Dumont suddenly take on an added lustre as clubs wonder if they can drag them out for free.
Essendon was reported as having had real interest in Dumont last year as he fretted about the club’s direction post-hub, but under new coach David Noble surely those issues will settle down.
But put it this way — why would a midfield free agent averaging 102 ranking points and 20 touches in 2019 be in a desperate hurry to re-sign?
10. Jack Silvagni (Carlton)
For all the fascination about what Silvagni can or cannot do on the footy field, it is worth remembering he only turned 23 in December and plays in footy’s hardest position.
Silvagni is uncontracted at year’s end at a club that sacked his dad and delisted his brother Ben last year, none of which is really relevant to his own future given he has never indicated he wants out.
Last year was a wipe-out with injury but in 2017-19 he played 52 games for 38 goals and 155 tackles.
He’s no superstar, but he just might be the kind of player who makes those around him better.
It’s why the next move of his career will have list managers watching his tape.
In a world full of Kouta-style body shapes he is an old-fashioned footballer but also a highly effective one.
Harry McKay is the club’s priority signing but has always stayed loyal and nothing hints at a change of heart for the emerging star.
11. Darcy Parish (Essendon)
Parish finished sixth in the 2020 Essendon best-and-fairest, averaging 87 SuperCoach points, 19 possessions, 4.2 clearances and 3.1 tackles.
The perception is he would like more pure midfield time, which could be problematic given Jye Caldwell’s emergence, with Parish out of contract as a two-year deal expires.
He has long been linked to Geelong as a Winchelsea boy via the Geelong Falcons.
Emerge as a star with a top-three best-and-fairest finish and the contract takes care of itself.
If not, one of around 25 Essendon players out of contract will again have his name raised in trade speculation.
12. Jake Kolodjashnij (Geelong)
The Cats stopper played 17 reasonable games last year and has always been valued for his ability to take on the Jordan De Goey types.
The interest lies in the Cats’ back six this year, with Tom Atkins slotting in as a half-back and Mark Blicavs rolling back into his favoured position.
With Blicavs, Tom Stewart, leadership group member Mark O’Connor, Jack Henry, Jed Bews and Lachie Henderson just some of the regulars in defence, will someone get squeezed out?
It might not be Kolodjashnij but if not him, then who?
13. Zaine Cordy (Western Bulldogs)
The Dogs defender is just 24, has played 85 games, is a premiership player (as a forward!) and isn’t certain of his role in Luke Beveridge given Ryan Gardner and Alex Keath have pushed ahead of him.
He isn’t Alex Rance by any stretch, but everyone needs miserly lock-down full-backs.
Ones who are 24 and out of contract have to be of interest.
14. Robbie Tarrant (North Melbourne)
If James Frawley can find a new home having retired (or been retired) over a few beers with Jarryd Roughead, imagine how in-demand Robbie Tarrant would be if he decided to chase a flag as an unrestricted free agent.
The suspicion is that this will be a very long year for the Roos, and rivals have come hard at their senior players already in Todd Goldstein (who stayed) and Shaun Higgins (who left).
The Roos had Higgins in contract so secured pick 30 for him (which became Falcons midfielder Charlie Lazzaro) and everyone went home happy.
Tarrant will likely re-sign but imagine slotting him into a premiership contender one key defender short of the perfect backline.
15. Tom McCartin (Sydney)
Sydney should do their darndest to sign McCartin up quick smart.
The suspicion is that he will be the latest in a long line of (not quite) failed forwards who becomes a dominant centre half-back.
McCartin loves Sydney and has shown no signs of leaving, with his brother Paddy now living in Sydney and set to play in the new-look VFL side.
So rivals will watch his emergence asking the question but aware he is very likely to commit to the Swans on a long-term deal.
16. Josh Kelly (GWS)
Kelly might have footy’s strangest contract.
He has an out clause on his deal this year but alternatively can sign for up to the next eight seasons at GWS if he is happy with the club’s direction.
Like many Giants stars before him he stayed loyal when everyone said he was coming home.
But will Leon Cameron keep his job at GWS this year?
Will they challenge or have to take some more steps back before contending again given the influx of kids who replaced the likes of Jeremy Cameron, Zac Williams and Jye Caldwell?
Until he officially ticks off that extension, clubs that offered him $1 million a year last time around will keep probing.
Jacob Hopper is also out of contract, but seems happy and should get serious midfield time this year.
17. Adam Cerra (Fremantle)
Cerra and his partner in crime Andrew Brayshaw finished locked on 150 votes to notch an equal-third placing in the Dockers’ 2020 best-and-fairest.
Now the suspicion is Cerra will sign a similar long-term deal to Brayshaw, who in December ticked off a four-year extension through to 2025.
But given he didn’t exactly sprint to sign his initial contract extension, list managers will continue to dog-ear his page in their books, with Cerra not yet pushing hard to progress talks on that deal.
18. Noah Balta (Richmond)
Why wouldn’t he sign a two-year contract, try to win more flags, then sign a monster deal after six AFL seasons at a time when he could be the best young defender in the game?
Then again, why wouldn’t a rival who saw the Western Bulldogs hand Tom Boyd a million bucks a year as a first-year player make a similar offer to Balta?
He is an elite intercept marking defender who can shut down the best forward, and might just have a future as a ruck or even roaming wingman.
His brief cameos forward show he has what it takes there as well.
What a skillet.
Balta has the football world at his feet and multiple choices about the way ahead with his contract length and how long he wants to hold out until he stays at the Tigers.
19. Ed Richards (Western Bulldogs)
Richards has played 58 games in three years but doesn’t look a Round 1 starter this year given the Bulldogs’ depth.
He’s only three years into his career but a club that has so many midfielder set to be pushed to the flanks, how prominent will his role be this year?
Just one to watch rather than a likely departure given he is a busy, buzzy player with real upside.
Several high-profile midfielders are coming out of contract at year’s end. They are among the 20 players that list managers have in their sights.
Round 1 is days away and the official trade period isn’t for months, but everything we know about the annual AFL meat market is that many deals are formulated as long as 18 months before they are officially signed.
So as AFL clubs kick off their seasons with list managers finally having navigated the COVID cuts forced upon them, who will they turn their eyes to as they go into attack mode to improve their lists at the end of 2021.
Here are the 20 gettable and not-so-gettable players list managers will be targeting this year.
1. Nick Vlastuin (Richmond)
Is Vlastuin worth $800,000 a year to a rival club?
Surely not for a half-back flanker… and yet Zac Williams just went to Carlton for a similar deal and Brandon Ellis got $600,000 as a free agent.
Talks haven’t progressed yet for Vlastuin, who will surely stay loyal to the club that helped him win three flags as one of footy’s most courageous and dependable half-backs.
But would he think twice if someone put four million over five years in front of him?
Would Essendon, which has cap space by the truckload, desperately needs leadership and just lost a star half-back in Adam Saad, at least ask the question if it can rise to respectability by year’s end?
At the very worst it would force Richmond to increase what will surely be a very worthy but short-of-full-tote-odds contract for one of the Tigers’ most important defensive cogs.
2. Clayton Oliver (Melbourne)
Good clubs don’t lose good players.
It’s why Oliver and Melbourne will sit tight to see if the Demons can prove to the uncontracted 23-year-old why it is obvious he should stay.
He has the talent to be a top-five midfielder in the game but, like Dustin Martin in 2016, he can be big on possessions and low on pure impact.
That year Martin won the club best-and-fairest with 684 touches (top five in the AFL) but only nine goals in a trainwreck of a season for his club.
For all his brilliance, Oliver has 29 goals in 99 games, and while he might never be Dusty, he can provide more bang for buck.
If he does his version of a Dusty — 37 goals and every medal possible in 2017 — the Demons play finals, but if he and they underachieve again a long list of suitors, including Carlton, will come from the clouds.
3. Josh Dunkley (Western Bulldogs)
Joe Daniher was grumpy with Essendon, tried to get to Sydney, had to wait a year, then bobbed up at Brisbane.
As much as Dunkley might hope for more midfield time this year, he is now a live target for 17 clubs who need goalkicking mid-forwards as they assess the Dogs midfield landscape in 2021.
He might fall in love with the Dogs again.
He might be too hard to extricate once more given a deal running to 2022.
But you would be mad not to at least assess his options with manager Liam Pickering all year.
It won’t just be Essendon sniffing around Dunkley at year’s end.
4. Jack Billings (St Kilda)
Billings had a good-but-not-great 2020 season, outside the top 10 in the Saints’ best-and-fairest despite playing every game.
Why wouldn’t he want to stay at St Kilda given a beckoning flag window? But suddenly the Saints have plenty of mouths to feed from a salary perspective.
As an example they will want to recontract Max King over summer and just think what kind of money that will take.
As an elite assists man who has never had trouble finding the footy, Billings’ role is so integral to the modern game.
This is his time to cash in as a restricted free agent, but would others value him more than St Kilda?
5. Zach Merrett (Essendon)
We know the score.
The free agent wants to be at a successful club filled with similarly driven athletes that are well coached with an identifiable game plan and path to a premiership.
Essendon believes it can be that by the time he comes to make a decision on his future.
And the Bombers have the cap space to ensure it’s not a financial decision.
Yet every club that believes it can be in the window with another star mid would be crazy not to already be in front of his manager asking to meet him or at least pitch their services.
6. Fischer McAsey (Adelaide)
Like many of his draft class after an interrupted debut season he isn’t yet signed up past 2021, which in itself is no cause for concern.
But the fact he can’t get a pre-season game despite injuries to Daniel Talia and Tom Doedee would have Melbourne list managers putting the highlighter across his name given the No.6 draft pick is a Caulfield Grammar boy.
It would be nothing more than due diligence in an era when many Victorians still find a way back home, like Jye Caldwell last year.
7. Callum Coleman Jones (Richmond)
Rival clubs mostly steal ruckmen instead of draft them, as much as Brodie Grundy and Tim English have bucked that trend.
Coleman-Jones is only 21, currently has four more matches of a COVID suspension to serve and at only two metres might be more of a forward than ruck-forward.
But the uncontracted Tiger has already had solid interest from GWS at the end of 2019 and looks to have something about him as a contested-marking tall.
The former No.20 draft pick would want to establish himself as the second ruck behind Toby Nankervis in the back-end of the year (with Ivan Soldo to return in 2022) or rivals will come for him again.
8. Esava Ratugolea (Geelong)
Geelong genuinely wants to play a second ruck who pushes forward behind Rhys Stanley given a return to 20-minute quarters, so there is a role there for Ratugolea (currently out injured with a small crack in his leg).
He stayed loyal despite interest from GWS in the potential Jeremy Cameron trade, believing he should reward a club that drafted him.
But he will come out of contract having only turned 23 in July this year and entering his prime as an aggressive contested marking ruck-forward.
Establish himself in the side and it becomes an easy decision for him.
Languish in the VFL and you never know who might be interested.
9. Trent Dumont (North Melbourne)
In the dog-eat-dog world of the AFL rivals will hover like vultures scrutinising North Melbourne’s list in a season when a bottom-four finish isn’t out of the question.
It means free agents like Dumont suddenly take on an added lustre as clubs wonder if they can drag them out for free.
Essendon was reported as having had real interest in Dumont last year as he fretted about the club’s direction post-hub, but under new coach David Noble surely those issues will settle down.
But put it this way — why would a midfield free agent averaging 102 ranking points and 20 touches in 2019 be in a desperate hurry to re-sign?
10. Jack Silvagni (Carlton)
For all the fascination about what Silvagni can or cannot do on the footy field, it is worth remembering he only turned 23 in December and plays in footy’s hardest position.
Silvagni is uncontracted at year’s end at a club that sacked his dad and delisted his brother Ben last year, none of which is really relevant to his own future given he has never indicated he wants out.
Last year was a wipe-out with injury but in 2017-19 he played 52 games for 38 goals and 155 tackles.
He’s no superstar, but he just might be the kind of player who makes those around him better.
It’s why the next move of his career will have list managers watching his tape.
In a world full of Kouta-style body shapes he is an old-fashioned footballer but also a highly effective one.
Harry McKay is the club’s priority signing but has always stayed loyal and nothing hints at a change of heart for the emerging star.
11. Darcy Parish (Essendon)
Parish finished sixth in the 2020 Essendon best-and-fairest, averaging 87 SuperCoach points, 19 possessions, 4.2 clearances and 3.1 tackles.
The perception is he would like more pure midfield time, which could be problematic given Jye Caldwell’s emergence, with Parish out of contract as a two-year deal expires.
He has long been linked to Geelong as a Winchelsea boy via the Geelong Falcons.
Emerge as a star with a top-three best-and-fairest finish and the contract takes care of itself.
If not, one of around 25 Essendon players out of contract will again have his name raised in trade speculation.
12. Jake Kolodjashnij (Geelong)
The Cats stopper played 17 reasonable games last year and has always been valued for his ability to take on the Jordan De Goey types.
The interest lies in the Cats’ back six this year, with Tom Atkins slotting in as a half-back and Mark Blicavs rolling back into his favoured position.
With Blicavs, Tom Stewart, leadership group member Mark O’Connor, Jack Henry, Jed Bews and Lachie Henderson just some of the regulars in defence, will someone get squeezed out?
It might not be Kolodjashnij but if not him, then who?
13. Zaine Cordy (Western Bulldogs)
The Dogs defender is just 24, has played 85 games, is a premiership player (as a forward!) and isn’t certain of his role in Luke Beveridge given Ryan Gardner and Alex Keath have pushed ahead of him.
He isn’t Alex Rance by any stretch, but everyone needs miserly lock-down full-backs.
Ones who are 24 and out of contract have to be of interest.
14. Robbie Tarrant (North Melbourne)
If James Frawley can find a new home having retired (or been retired) over a few beers with Jarryd Roughead, imagine how in-demand Robbie Tarrant would be if he decided to chase a flag as an unrestricted free agent.
The suspicion is that this will be a very long year for the Roos, and rivals have come hard at their senior players already in Todd Goldstein (who stayed) and Shaun Higgins (who left).
The Roos had Higgins in contract so secured pick 30 for him (which became Falcons midfielder Charlie Lazzaro) and everyone went home happy.
Tarrant will likely re-sign but imagine slotting him into a premiership contender one key defender short of the perfect backline.
15. Tom McCartin (Sydney)
Sydney should do their darndest to sign McCartin up quick smart.
The suspicion is that he will be the latest in a long line of (not quite) failed forwards who becomes a dominant centre half-back.
McCartin loves Sydney and has shown no signs of leaving, with his brother Paddy now living in Sydney and set to play in the new-look VFL side.
So rivals will watch his emergence asking the question but aware he is very likely to commit to the Swans on a long-term deal.
16. Josh Kelly (GWS)
Kelly might have footy’s strangest contract.
He has an out clause on his deal this year but alternatively can sign for up to the next eight seasons at GWS if he is happy with the club’s direction.
Like many Giants stars before him he stayed loyal when everyone said he was coming home.
But will Leon Cameron keep his job at GWS this year?
Will they challenge or have to take some more steps back before contending again given the influx of kids who replaced the likes of Jeremy Cameron, Zac Williams and Jye Caldwell?
Until he officially ticks off that extension, clubs that offered him $1 million a year last time around will keep probing.
Jacob Hopper is also out of contract, but seems happy and should get serious midfield time this year.
17. Adam Cerra (Fremantle)
Cerra and his partner in crime Andrew Brayshaw finished locked on 150 votes to notch an equal-third placing in the Dockers’ 2020 best-and-fairest.
Now the suspicion is Cerra will sign a similar long-term deal to Brayshaw, who in December ticked off a four-year extension through to 2025.
But given he didn’t exactly sprint to sign his initial contract extension, list managers will continue to dog-ear his page in their books, with Cerra not yet pushing hard to progress talks on that deal.
18. Noah Balta (Richmond)
Why wouldn’t he sign a two-year contract, try to win more flags, then sign a monster deal after six AFL seasons at a time when he could be the best young defender in the game?
Then again, why wouldn’t a rival who saw the Western Bulldogs hand Tom Boyd a million bucks a year as a first-year player make a similar offer to Balta?
He is an elite intercept marking defender who can shut down the best forward, and might just have a future as a ruck or even roaming wingman.
His brief cameos forward show he has what it takes there as well.
What a skillet.
Balta has the football world at his feet and multiple choices about the way ahead with his contract length and how long he wants to hold out until he stays at the Tigers.
19. Ed Richards (Western Bulldogs)
Richards has played 58 games in three years but doesn’t look a Round 1 starter this year given the Bulldogs’ depth.
He’s only three years into his career but a club that has so many midfielder set to be pushed to the flanks, how prominent will his role be this year?
Just one to watch rather than a likely departure given he is a busy, buzzy player with real upside.