bulldogtragic
26-04-2021, 04:15 PM
I started doing some reading as I wanted to be able to understand the variables that go into ‘The Premiership Clock’. What are/were the decisions in a decade long period between two clubs that have made on field and off field consequences. The concept that a club moves ‘passed midnight’ and automatically moves around is at best a naive concept that some folks in the media push. The idea of indicating where a club is at a given time is fine, but that’s not always how the progression of any given team is. So I picked a team against who we were both at a decade ago, with similar finishes and list profiles.
So we are looking at our club and St Kilda. Obviously we both finished the 2000’s as strong teams, ultimately losing Prelim & Grand Finals. Both with seasoned playing lists and old school coaches, with a drought of premierships and facing challenges off field in a general sense.
So we start with trades in and selected draftees of any note:
2010
Dogs: Wallis, Liberatore, Dahl, and we’re wasteful with Vez & Sherman
Saints: Cripps
2011
Dogs: Roberts, Dickson, C. Smith, Roberts
Saints: Milera, Ross, Michington
2012
Dogs: K. Stevens, Stringer, Macrae, Hrovat, Hamling
Saints: Roberton
2013
Dogs: Crameri, Bontempelli
Saints: Bruce, Savage, Longer, Billing’s, Dunstan, Weller, Acres
2014
Dogs: Boyd, Biggs, McLean, Webb, Dale, Daniel, Cordy
Saints: Membrey, McCartin, Steele, Lonie
2015
Dogs: Suckling, Dunkley, Adams, Williams
Saints: Carlisle, Freeman, Gresham
2016
Dogs: English, Lipinski, Lewis Young (for Koby Stevens Pick), Cloke
Saints: Steele, Long, Battle, Marshall, Koby Stevens (just 17 games for Saints)
2017
Dogs: Schache, Crozier, Naughton, Richards
Saints: Taken directly before Naughton, Clark, Coffield
2018
Dogs: Smith, West, VDM,
Saints: M. King, Bytel, Hannerbury
2019
Dogs: Weightman, Keath, Duryea, Bruce from Saints
Saints: Hill, Howard, Ryder, Jones, Butler
2020
Dogs: Treloar, Hannan, Martin, Ugle-Hagan
Saints: Crouch, Higgins, McKernan, Frawley
Now this part is an ink blot Test. You’ll see what you see. But as obvious it is to say it, you need to trade AND draft well. There is a lot of unfulfilled talent in their better picks over the journey. Trading is important to fill the gaps, but there were a lot of gaps. We on the other hand, have executed those top picks really well across multiple recruiters and list managers. Both clubs have found gold late. Both clubs have lost a #1 KPF to injury too. So bad luck isn’t a major factor.
Where is some luck, Father Sons. Liberatore, Wallis, Cordy, West. The NGA: Jamarra Ugle-Hagan at Pick 1 with lax points rules for last year, plus Buku. But West & Jamarra haven’t played a senior game yet. But I acknowledge this is a good source of talent for us. The luck of the AFEL allowing us to amass points without opening up spots is beyond luck.
But when you consider they had the direct pick before Bontempelli and Naughton, and offered up Bruce and gave us the pick that got us Lewy Young. St Kilda could’ve literally had a huge forwardline of King-Bruce-Naughton being fed by Bontempelli. But that’s us this year.
As for trading, their recent record has the Dodoro’s to it. Looking to win the trade period and sell memberships even if it’s too much. They were so quick to ‘win’ they signed up Crouch, while the very last trade was Treloar (a much better player) for less money. It’s young bull, old bull stuff. Over the recent years we’ve been going after the same players. After woofers announced that Tom Boyd was gettable they tried to get into Tom’s ear to no success. They wanted Crozier & Keath but got nervous by the extra year and money our offer had. I’d argue our best two current defensive aerialists are Keath & Crozier. I guess we should be happy they walked off and let us get both players for 3rd Rounders.
But for some bad decisions to not trade and poor picks etc, they have a defensive unit of Lewy Young, Keath, Crozier, Bonts in the middle, tall forwards King, Bruce, Naughton.
But then the mind turns to coaching. Our Premiership coach is Luke Beveridge. He was going to be a St Kilda Football Club employee before we offered him the head coaching role. St Kilda had Bevo and all they had to go was make the move. They didn’t or wouldn’t, and he was allowed to impart his thoughts on footy in 2015 & 2016 as coach of the year and a premiership coach. In both clubs decade between 2010 and now, we’ve had three coaches and Saints have had 4. So stability in this area isn’t definitive of the likelihood of success.
In the off field study the AFEL tried them for Good Friday Footy, but we got it back and hopefully can keep it. Meet Bain’s had excelled in virtually every job at St Kilda and was overlooked for the CEO vacancy. So what do the dogs do, sign him up immediately to take over as CEO and the runs he has on the board so far are excellent, while St Kilda continue to look erratic especially its the Frankston fiasco.
Just twisting fate a little, we have acquired because of St Kilda: Bains, Bevo, Bonts, Naughton, Bruce, Lewy Young, Keath & Crozier.
Now back to the topic, the media can say that Dogs & Saints finished around the same mark last year and are thus around spot on the Premiership Clock. St Kilda have tried desperately to trade into success, and I can’t think of a team that missed so many good picks winning the big dance. Whether they’re gone for the year or next few is anyone’s guess. Whether they are going to be throwing good money after bad with some recent trades, I suspect they will. Brad Hill is cream in a winning team. $800,000 or so in a losing team, well... but their fans won’t accept the need for a refresh. Then they are back to trying to win the trade period to sell memberships.
On us. Josh Bruce said after he kicked 10 that our Premiership window is now, looking at the age profile. I don’t disagree, but I think that’s the result, not the method. I think we are in a window because no one is worrying about bills not getting paid, something the big clubs have. We have a stubborn coach, high is not all bad. We have (at least for 10 years) good scouts, head recruiters and list managers who have executed at the pointy end of the draft, round some talent on and been focused with being executing really good trades irrespective of winning trade period.
The net result over the decade is us winning a Premiership in 2016. People on the outside look at us both around 2010 and 2020. Our Premiership Clock is carefully crafted and tells impeccable time, but it’s our Clock, not the generic media commentating one. As we aspire higher, and St Kilda lower, we should be able to attract some more talent on limited salary cap who are looking for a flag.
My only advice to St Kilda is look at the last decade in more detail than I. I think a good refresh could turn it around in a couple of years. I hope our understudies in coaching, recruiting, list managing and CEO’ing are ready to keep things going as other clubs come to poach our leaders.
So is that simplistic, or do you see more going on in this decade long snapshot?
So we are looking at our club and St Kilda. Obviously we both finished the 2000’s as strong teams, ultimately losing Prelim & Grand Finals. Both with seasoned playing lists and old school coaches, with a drought of premierships and facing challenges off field in a general sense.
So we start with trades in and selected draftees of any note:
2010
Dogs: Wallis, Liberatore, Dahl, and we’re wasteful with Vez & Sherman
Saints: Cripps
2011
Dogs: Roberts, Dickson, C. Smith, Roberts
Saints: Milera, Ross, Michington
2012
Dogs: K. Stevens, Stringer, Macrae, Hrovat, Hamling
Saints: Roberton
2013
Dogs: Crameri, Bontempelli
Saints: Bruce, Savage, Longer, Billing’s, Dunstan, Weller, Acres
2014
Dogs: Boyd, Biggs, McLean, Webb, Dale, Daniel, Cordy
Saints: Membrey, McCartin, Steele, Lonie
2015
Dogs: Suckling, Dunkley, Adams, Williams
Saints: Carlisle, Freeman, Gresham
2016
Dogs: English, Lipinski, Lewis Young (for Koby Stevens Pick), Cloke
Saints: Steele, Long, Battle, Marshall, Koby Stevens (just 17 games for Saints)
2017
Dogs: Schache, Crozier, Naughton, Richards
Saints: Taken directly before Naughton, Clark, Coffield
2018
Dogs: Smith, West, VDM,
Saints: M. King, Bytel, Hannerbury
2019
Dogs: Weightman, Keath, Duryea, Bruce from Saints
Saints: Hill, Howard, Ryder, Jones, Butler
2020
Dogs: Treloar, Hannan, Martin, Ugle-Hagan
Saints: Crouch, Higgins, McKernan, Frawley
Now this part is an ink blot Test. You’ll see what you see. But as obvious it is to say it, you need to trade AND draft well. There is a lot of unfulfilled talent in their better picks over the journey. Trading is important to fill the gaps, but there were a lot of gaps. We on the other hand, have executed those top picks really well across multiple recruiters and list managers. Both clubs have found gold late. Both clubs have lost a #1 KPF to injury too. So bad luck isn’t a major factor.
Where is some luck, Father Sons. Liberatore, Wallis, Cordy, West. The NGA: Jamarra Ugle-Hagan at Pick 1 with lax points rules for last year, plus Buku. But West & Jamarra haven’t played a senior game yet. But I acknowledge this is a good source of talent for us. The luck of the AFEL allowing us to amass points without opening up spots is beyond luck.
But when you consider they had the direct pick before Bontempelli and Naughton, and offered up Bruce and gave us the pick that got us Lewy Young. St Kilda could’ve literally had a huge forwardline of King-Bruce-Naughton being fed by Bontempelli. But that’s us this year.
As for trading, their recent record has the Dodoro’s to it. Looking to win the trade period and sell memberships even if it’s too much. They were so quick to ‘win’ they signed up Crouch, while the very last trade was Treloar (a much better player) for less money. It’s young bull, old bull stuff. Over the recent years we’ve been going after the same players. After woofers announced that Tom Boyd was gettable they tried to get into Tom’s ear to no success. They wanted Crozier & Keath but got nervous by the extra year and money our offer had. I’d argue our best two current defensive aerialists are Keath & Crozier. I guess we should be happy they walked off and let us get both players for 3rd Rounders.
But for some bad decisions to not trade and poor picks etc, they have a defensive unit of Lewy Young, Keath, Crozier, Bonts in the middle, tall forwards King, Bruce, Naughton.
But then the mind turns to coaching. Our Premiership coach is Luke Beveridge. He was going to be a St Kilda Football Club employee before we offered him the head coaching role. St Kilda had Bevo and all they had to go was make the move. They didn’t or wouldn’t, and he was allowed to impart his thoughts on footy in 2015 & 2016 as coach of the year and a premiership coach. In both clubs decade between 2010 and now, we’ve had three coaches and Saints have had 4. So stability in this area isn’t definitive of the likelihood of success.
In the off field study the AFEL tried them for Good Friday Footy, but we got it back and hopefully can keep it. Meet Bain’s had excelled in virtually every job at St Kilda and was overlooked for the CEO vacancy. So what do the dogs do, sign him up immediately to take over as CEO and the runs he has on the board so far are excellent, while St Kilda continue to look erratic especially its the Frankston fiasco.
Just twisting fate a little, we have acquired because of St Kilda: Bains, Bevo, Bonts, Naughton, Bruce, Lewy Young, Keath & Crozier.
Now back to the topic, the media can say that Dogs & Saints finished around the same mark last year and are thus around spot on the Premiership Clock. St Kilda have tried desperately to trade into success, and I can’t think of a team that missed so many good picks winning the big dance. Whether they’re gone for the year or next few is anyone’s guess. Whether they are going to be throwing good money after bad with some recent trades, I suspect they will. Brad Hill is cream in a winning team. $800,000 or so in a losing team, well... but their fans won’t accept the need for a refresh. Then they are back to trying to win the trade period to sell memberships.
On us. Josh Bruce said after he kicked 10 that our Premiership window is now, looking at the age profile. I don’t disagree, but I think that’s the result, not the method. I think we are in a window because no one is worrying about bills not getting paid, something the big clubs have. We have a stubborn coach, high is not all bad. We have (at least for 10 years) good scouts, head recruiters and list managers who have executed at the pointy end of the draft, round some talent on and been focused with being executing really good trades irrespective of winning trade period.
The net result over the decade is us winning a Premiership in 2016. People on the outside look at us both around 2010 and 2020. Our Premiership Clock is carefully crafted and tells impeccable time, but it’s our Clock, not the generic media commentating one. As we aspire higher, and St Kilda lower, we should be able to attract some more talent on limited salary cap who are looking for a flag.
My only advice to St Kilda is look at the last decade in more detail than I. I think a good refresh could turn it around in a couple of years. I hope our understudies in coaching, recruiting, list managing and CEO’ing are ready to keep things going as other clubs come to poach our leaders.
So is that simplistic, or do you see more going on in this decade long snapshot?