We're just a bad match-up for the Pies.

[mjp]

I just think we're going to win this week.

To me, Collingwood are the complete opposite of Geelong in terms of structure - and as a consequence we are a BAD match-up for them.

Are they doing a lot right? Yep. Are they a 'hard out'? Of course. But the magnets just don't stack together well.

We are most vulnerable to teams with leading, marking forwards. Like it or not, our key backs have a bad habit of conceding oppo marks within scoring range...Collingwood don't really HAVE marking forwards. They have medium sized forwards (Miocheck, Elliott) and a small forward (Hill)...but they don't have a Tom Lynch, Jeremy Cameron etc. Our back 6 match up WELL with them.

Collingwood are equally vulnerable to an oppo able to win stoppage - their back 6 - on the back of Moore - will intercept and run, but weight of D50 possession (see the Melbourne game) renders them a bit impotent in that regard because they like to create an extra/drop off player and that is HARD unless you are 50-50 at stoppage...our mids are either BIG (Bont) or desperate (Liber) and we should be able to get ascendancy in this area...

When we played them last year we were +17 in stoppage, +22 in inside 50 and a whole lot of plusses in the possession stats...I am not expecting the same dominance but I AM 100% expecting us to hold sway and win this game by around 5-goals.

Come at me!!

[bulldogtragic]

I hope you’re right.

[jeemak]

I think we're up to our eyeballs in this one and have considered the Pies a reasonable match up for us.

My main worry is giving up field advantage between the arcs and allowing run through the corridor. If we can avoid doing that then scoring becomes more difficult for them and our midfield stays in the play with their appetite for risk.

[Grantysghost]

Dogs by 25.

[Mofra]

We're a chance because we're at Marvel, but I am still concerned by the outside run match ups.

Our wings are a cobbled together week to week proposition, they have Josh Daicos who should be considered one of the best wings in the game.
Their run off half-back is incredible - Noble & Quaynor are in career best form, and Nick Daicos rolls through there too.

They're the best 'end to end' team in the comp and we can be vulnerable to scoring chains from our F50, especially with Arty out.

[Bulldog Joe]

I feel we are a real chance and agree that we match up well.

There intercept markers are our biggest issue because we don't take enough care with F50 delivery.

If we do get that right we will win comfortably.

[ledge]

Biggest problem for us is we let run ons happen and Collingwood will just rip through the middle, that’s our biggest weakness, sides take it off us at half back and fly , Collingwood the other night were in top form doing it.

[EasternWest]

Aren't you the same guy that said we couldn't win after the bye?

[lemmon]

Do we tag N. Daicos? In the last two weeks he's had a combined 15 clearances and 1100 metres gained. He might be the most damaging inside/outside mid in the comp right now and gives their midfield a different look.

[D Mitchell]

We're a chance because we're at Marvel, but I am still concerned by the outside run match ups.

Our wings are a cobbled together week to week proposition, they have Josh Daicos who should be considered one of the best wings in the game.
Their run off half-back is incredible - Noble & Quaynor are in career best form, and Nick Daicos rolls through there too.

They're the best 'end to end' team in the comp and we can be vulnerable to scoring chains from our F50, especially with Arty out.

Correct, straight down the corridor at full pace and don't mind kicking to a contest. We have the Worst defensive forward line in the competition. Good teams waltz out of defence, C'wood will roar out. Over to Bev to come up with something. Defence is de thing that separates de people from de players.

[MrMahatma]

They can be behind by 7 goals and never feel out of it.
We can be up by 7 goals and still be vulnerable to a loss.

I get structure and all that but can’t help to think their belief is their biggest strength and our demons are our biggest weekness.

[jeemak]

Do we tag N. Daicos? In the last two weeks he's had a combined 15 clearances and 1100 metres gained. He might be the most damaging inside/outside mid in the comp right now and gives their midfield a different look.

I'd consider doing something pretty radical here, and either play Vandermeer on him in a defencive role with Richards going back or play Richards on him to ease him in and not expose him to the continued bursts of pace required at half back. In both cases assuming Ed comes back.

Ed to me has the smarts to understand and quell his run, whilst he's also a great match up for him aerially. He'd be my preferred option and definitely something the Pies wouldn't expect.

[Flamethrower]

Some serious underrating of the premiership favourites going on here.

I watch Collingwood play every week (I have mates who work at Collingwood), and they are the best coached and best structured team in the competition - and it's not close. They are the ultimate champion team, with a sprinkling of elite players such as Darcy Moore, Scott Pendlebury and Nick Daicos. You could say they have mastered 4D chess while everyone else are struggling to play checkers.

That's not to say they can't be beaten, but it takes a complete team effort with zero passengers plus massive games from your elite players, and not switching off for 15 minutes like we tend to do. Also helps if the flu has gone through their club the week before too.

You basically need to have them beaten by 3/4 time because they have built the belief that they can win from anywhere.

Some inside goss from a mate who works at Collingwood. Brody Mihocek is unlikely to play and Brayden Maynard 50/50 at best.

Update - Fox Footy just said Mihocek is out.

[bornadog]

is unlikely to play and Brayden Maynard 50/50 at best.

He would be a big loss for them.

Any team is beatable and agree we can't have a lapse in concentration or they will cease on the moment and whack on goals.

[EasternWest]

I'd consider doing something pretty radical here, and either play Vandermeer on him in a defencive

Lenny Hayes just felt a surge of adrenaline.

[jeemak]

Lenny Hayes just felt a surge of adrenaline.

Lost me.

[Mofra]

Correct, straight down the corridor at full pace and don't mind kicking to a contest. We have the Worst defensive forward line in the competition. Good teams waltz out of defence, C'wood will roar out. Over to Bev to come up with something. Defence is de thing that separates de people from de players.
We're 18th for using the corridor, fairly certain Collingwood are 1st.
It's going to be weird watching the ball go through the middle when they have it, and around the wings when we do.

[EasternWest]

Lost me.

Lenny Hayes treated the entire Bulldogs team like his bunnies. Even now the idea of a bulldog being slaughtered makes his nostrils flare.

[jeemak]

Lenny Hayes treated the entire Bulldogs team like his bunnies. Even now the idea of a bulldog being slaughtered makes his nostrils flare.

I see.

Well Latham has played defencive forward for most of his time as a Bulldog and will revert to that position when Ed goes back. So it's basically what we'd be doing anywya.

However, as I said my preference is Ed.

[1eyedog]

The Pies are just way too skilled for us and we switch off defensively, for times that are just too long, most games.

They'll put 5 on us in half a quarter at some stage.

[EasternWest]

I see.

Well Latham has played defencive forward for most of his time as a Bulldog and will revert to that position when Ed goes back. So it's basically what we'd be doing anywya.

However, as I said my preference is Ed.

Ed Richards makes sense. I wonder how interested Daicos is being accountable for his man?

[azabob]

I'd consider doing something pretty radical here, and either play Vandermeer on him in a defencive role with Richards going back or play Richards on him to ease him in and not expose him to the continued bursts of pace required at half back. In both cases assuming Ed comes back.

Ed to me has the smarts to understand and quell his run, whilst he's also a great match up for him aerially. He'd be my preferred option and definitely something the Pies wouldn't expect.

Hasn't Daicos being playing midfield the last week or two?

I'd considering getting Smith to run with him. Smith has the ability to hurt Daicos the other way (obviously if we get this wrong Daicos will torch us, but he is likely to anyway).

[azabob]

Ed Richards makes sense. I wonder how interested Daicos is being accountable for his man?

He's not and it tends not to matter.

[mjp]

Aren't you the same guy that said we couldn't win after the bye?

To be fair, I think I said NO-ONE could win after the bye 'cos no-one add.

Aside from that, you're point is very well made and at no point do I think anyone should listen to my projections about teams or players.

[Boots]

It's not the despair. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand.

[mjp]

Some serious underrating of the premiership favourites going on here.

You could say they have mastered 4D chess while everyone else are struggling to play checkers.

...
That's not to say they can't be beaten, but it takes a complete team effort with zero passengers plus massive games from your elite players, and not switching off for 15 minutes like we tend to do. Also helps if the flu has gone through their club the week before too.


And that's cool and all but they're not going that well.

Last 5 weeks:
- Smashed Gold Coast. Whatevs.
- Beat Adelaide in a miracle come-back where it is pretty much acknowledged by the AFL the umpires 'cheated/made a mistake' to deny the Crows the win.
- Bye.
- Lost to Melbourne. Yes - came back and 'nearly' won but fell short. Melbourne have lost 4 of their last 6.
- Beat West Coast by 10-goals...but only a kick in it at half time.

I get it, they're on top and playing 'well' but all this chess vs checkers stuff...give me a break. They've beaten an average side easily (GC), been in close ones with Adelaide and Melbourne for a win and a loss and done what everyone expected (or maybe a touch less) vs the Eagles. They play an exciting brand and all, but chess vs checkers? When they went up to Brisbane to play the Lions they were tattoo'ed, they snuck over the line against the Saints and Bombers...their best win in retrospect was way, way back in R2 when they beat PA to trigger the 'sack Hinkley' discussions and the Power 12-game unbeaten run.

Are Collingwood 'GOOD'? Yep. Top 4? They'll be around the mark. Are we a good match-up for them? Hell NO!

[GVGjr]

Hasn't Daicos being playing midfield the last week or two?

I'd considering getting Smith to run with him. Smith has the ability to hurt Daicos the other way (obviously if we get this wrong Daicos will torch us, but he is likely to anyway).

Great suggestion, what a fascinating match-up that would be.

[GVGjr]

Are Collingwood 'GOOD'? Yep. Top 4? They'll be around the mark. Are we a good match-up for them? Hell NO!

I'm bullish about this game, I'm wasn't 100% sure why but after reading your analysis I'm more confident than I was.

[jazzadogs]

The issue with tagging daicos is that they are happy to move him to any part of the ground, and he is just as damaging. Half back, midfield, full forward - he can do it all.

I like the idea of Baz being given a role like he did on Cripps, while Naicos is in the middle or half back. But we will need an alternative for when he goes forward.

[bornadog]

I'm bullish about this game, I'm wasn't 100% sure why but after reading your analysis I'm more confident than I was.

Me too

[bulldogsthru&thru]

I agree that we're a bad matchup for them, but we'll need to be at our best to beat them.

Bring our intense game and I think we can get the win.

[Axe Man]

This is probably the last game of the home and away season (apart from the last round at Sedat Park) we won't be expected to win (at least externally).

Although it is still an important game it does take some pressure off players and supporters alike. Let's just see what we can do.

[mjp]

The issue with tagging daicos is...

Well, to quote Jamie Tartt, they don't play TOO him, they play THROUGH him.

Yes, he can win it (and does as a mid - a bit anyway) but they are pretty good at simply getting it into his hands and letting HIM make all the decisions...he's good at that! :-)

So...to limit his effectiveness you need to be able to stop them playing THROUGH him. Which is not simple...if he starts inside, you really can't lock on at CBD without compromising a pretty major part of our own game and once he gets a block he is off and gone. If he plays HB - and I would think he starts there - the forward he goes too (and we prob can't dictate this) needs to 100% NOT LEAD FOR THE BALL and instead focus on ensuring Daicos is constantly in 1-v-1 situations...this is not natural for many footballers and whilst I appreciate the Bailey Smith suggestion, I just think that will = 2x players getting 35 touches and it being a battle of who kicks it better...recently that has been Daicos and by some margin.

I would put Scott on him if he starts at half-back - and if that means we have 4-players running around in a group (Scott, Daicos, the forward Daicos is going too AND the back that forward is going too) well, so be IT.



...they are happy to move him to any part of the ground, and he is just as damaging.


Is he though? When he has been tagged he has 100% not been as damaging and this has been pretty widely reported. Why clubs continue to let a player sit in space across hb and rack them up...then slide inside in the 2nd half and rack them up without attention is very confusing...when he is coming out of a CBD starting point and kicking goals from the goal-square like he did vs Essendon - well, that's just poor play by the oppo, a lack of respect and a lack of accountability...and yep, I know it's simple to say that but oppo mids shouldn't be cruising inside forward 50 unaccompanied. We watched Darcy get one on English in Q4 last week - it was disappointing but at least English was bloody well chasing him. Getting beat is OK - not being IN the contest is not.

[bornadog]

Maynard out

[MrMahatma]

Interesting they'll be missing a few and obviously we're missing a couple in defence. They're getting DeGoey back though.

Last time we met a depleted team was Geelong and we know how that ended.

[ledge]

Interesting they'll be missing a few and obviously we're missing a couple in defence. They're getting DeGoey back though.

Last time we met a depleted team was Geelong and we know how that ended.

And we get Ed back

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Maynard out

Big out.

Love Maynard, wish he was in our colours.

[bornadog]

Big out.

Love Maynard, wish he was in our colours.

same, he is a tough character

[azabob]

Big out.

Love Maynard, wish he was in our colours.

Beau McCreey is the one I want. Reminds me of Clay Smith...

[JanLorMill]

There are some very good players at Collingwood but most of them grow another leg in their jumper. Not sure they would be the same at other clubs. Lipinski is an example, Chris Dawes was another.
They are also slightly overrated by their supporters and the media

[Go_Dogs]

Dogs by 10 goals.

Beat mjp post this year!

Woof woof.


In all honesty, I think we?re as good a chance this week as I thought we were last week. 50/50. Pies are in cracking form, but we do match up well and Marvel an advantage for us.

[AshMac]

On our day we can beat anyone.

Unfortunately I haven?t seen us ?on our day? since 2021.

We?ll have to bring something special out on Friday. Pies are a team that launch well from defence and from turnovers, we?ll need to be at our best.

[bornadog]

Bevo geeing up the players a week out. Get them to start thinking they can beat Collingwood.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7ylt2-3KzA

[Curly5]

I expect Collingwood to kick the first of the match within 20 seconds. But after that we'll be ok ;)

[whythelongface]

Lou the lip would love this thread. MJP has given us the kiss of death.

I have no expectations for tomorrow nights game. We can win it but reckon Cox and Elliott will be trouble. Also concerned with our delivery into the fwd 50 with Moore, Murphy and Howe good interceptors. Hope Naughton plays a more CHF r?le opening up our forward line.

[kruder]

Feeling confident about this one.

[mjp]

Lou the lip would love this thread. MJP has given us the kiss of death.



LOL. I can't win. When I say I think we're gonna lose - too negative. When I say I think we're gonna win....TOO positive/Kiss of Death!

[bornadog]

LOL. I can't win. When I say I think we're gonna lose - too negative. When I say I think we're gonna win....TOO positive/Kiss of Death!

I took this thread as a positive and you have convinced me we are going to win. :)

[EasternWest]

LOL. I can't win. When I say I think we're gonna lose - too negative. When I say I think we're gonna win....TOO positive/Kiss of Death!

There's no winning on the internet. You just state your opinion and hope you survive the hail of arrows.

[MrMahatma]

I'm shocked we're not favourites. This one is oooooooooooover.

Put Marra down for 5.

[Curly5]

I've tipped us to win in our family comp, the only one :(. But I couldn't bear it if we won and I hadn't tipped them.

I do think we can do it though, if everyone stands up.

[Axe Man]

I've tipped us to win in our family comp, the only one :(. But I couldn't bear it if we won and I hadn't tipped them.

I do think we can do it though, if everyone stands up.

I don't mind tipping against us in the tough games because it's win - win. If we win I don't care about the tip, if we lose at least I got the tip right.

[bulldogtragic]

I don't mind tipping against us in the tough games because it's win - win. If we win I don't care about the tip, if we lose at least I got the tip right.

At least you got your tip right. That’s a positive.

[D Mitchell]

Predictably, the game was lost in late Q2 and Q3 when C’wood stopped ‘switching’ and ran fast in waves in the corridor starting in defence under nil to minimum pressure from our forwards, Naughton was the only exception.

[Nuggety Back Pocket]

Predictably, the game was lost in late Q2 and Q3 when C’wood stopped ‘switching’ and ran fast in waves in the corridor starting in defence under nil to minimum pressure from our forwards, Naughton was the only exception.

Our inability to man up proved costly with Collingwood having 4-5 loose players leaving us exposed. Their 6 goals to our one in the third term proved to be the difference

[Go_Dogs]

How good was their ability to go out the back of a stoppage and then execute a forward handball to a player at pace running into open field. It’s the same outcome to a Melbourne stoppage, just how they got there was slightly different.