3 things learned from Rd22 vs Hawthorn 2023

[GVGjr]

Please list the 3 new things learned from our round 22 clash with Hawthorn

[bulldogtragic]

1. Macrae is done with us
2. We wasted another season
3. Hoping we can get Duursma by trading up to GCS pick

[HOSE B ROMERO]

1. They who hunt in packs reap the rewards.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

1. Macrae and Smith need to be traded. Offer us very little and are just names on a paper at this point.

2. Hawthorn will go past us quickly.

3. JOD is at least a positive from another garbage season.

[GVGjr]

1 - Our midfield wasn't switched on for long enough today.
2 - Liam Jones has been terrific for us and JOD has a future.
3 - It's hard to love football at the moment. :)

[DOG GOD]

1. Naughton needs a kicking coach
2. The team needs a tackling coach
3. The dogs need a new head coach

[Boots]

1. (Same as last week, but from the other side) fast ball movement wins games, slow ball movement means death. We hate kicking it to a guy on the run and rob ourselves of momentum all the time.
2. We need to learn to be tackled the way the hawks get tackled - they can always get it off to another player nearby. Neither our possessions nor our positioning is good enough for this
3. we’re going to miss the 8. No way we beat Geelong at home.

[westbulldog]

1. We are a lot (A LOT) worse team outdoors than under the roof.
2. Naughton is no longer part of our forward line imo, sick of him missing more easy shots that cost us more than we lose by , > CHB.
3. The hawks had a 6 goal run and from the bench we did what ?

[Bullies]

1. We need to play Sweet. We have no grunt. We need someone to hurt the opposition like they do to us.

2. Wouldn't hurt to lose next week so we can have the review we really need.

3. Drop Bailey Smith if he doesn't want to be there.

[bulldogtragic]

1. We are a lot (A LOT) worse team outdoors than under the roof.
2. Naughton is no longer part of our forward line imo, sick of him missing more easy shots that cost us than we lose by , > CHB.
3. The hawks had a 6 goal run and from the bench we did what ?

But Naughton takes big hangers. Sure he’s untrustworthy as a goal kicker. But the games about big marks…

But the dilemma is I don’t think he will do it. Plus do we want to pay him over $1M a season as an unproven CHB and erratic goal kicker that can’t be trusted to take shots at goal?

We are between a rock and hard place me thinks.

[macca]

Hawthorn traded out Mitchell ( brownlow medalist) , Omera, and Gunston

We need to make some tough calls this year and fix oir kicking please!

They found Newcombe in boxHill , whilst we opt for list cloggers

[Dancin' Douggy]

1. We start like thoroughbred, Rolls Royce, solid gold champions. High fives and million dollar smiles all round. Cuban cigars and lobster medallions and French champagne.
2. we hang in there like sluggers
3. we lose like idiots. Complete mugs.

[BornInDroopSt'54]

1. Not listening or viewing the game whilst believing we might be good enough to win the premiership then checking final scores, is devastating like a cannon ball through the guts.
2. We're unlikely against Cats in last round, let alone the premiership so next year yet again.
3. Dog God is more realist than anxious/depressive and I am a depressed optimist.

[Dry Rot]

Something bad has happened to Macrae

Something bad has happened to Smith

Something bad has happened to the team overall

[SonofScray]

1. I learned that I am at a point where I am prepared to withdraw my financial support for the club until something changes. If we don’t sack Bevo, or make sufficient changes off field before Oct, I’m pulling whatever $ they get from my family memberships.

2. We obviously don’t train for scenarios like managing a late lead, or a Hail Mary. We butchered it against GCD, and out in so,e sort of circus show against Hawthorn. Deplorable.

3. There’s a gulf between us and the ****ing 16th ******ing placed in terms of physicality. What a disgrace. How unBulldoglike.

[SonofScray]

Something bad has happened to Macrae

Something bad has happened to Smith

Something bad has happened to the team overall
Something = being subjected to a coach who is all at sea.

[Grantysghost]

Something bad has happened to Macrae

Something bad has happened to Smith

Something bad has happened to the team overall

Macrae was taken out of his natural position where he has won multiple AA gigs.

Felt like yesterday we expected him to just revert to that guy after playing half forward all year.

[Bullies]

Macrae was taken out of his natural position where he has won multiple AA gigs.

Felt like yesterday we expected him to just revert to that guy after playing half forward all year. He has been in the system long enough and should be able to adapt. He has spells in the middle each game so should be ready to go.

[Mantis]

Macrae was taken out of his natural position where he has won multiple AA gigs.

Felt like yesterday we expected him to just revert to that guy after playing half forward all year.

Why was he taken out of his natural position? Because he is a liability defensively due to a lack of leg speed on the spread... which was the case again yesterday.

But hey, he's signed up for 3 more years.. awesome!

[Grantysghost]

Why was he taken out of his natural position? Because he is a liability defensively due to a lack of leg speed on the spread... which was the case again yesterday.

But hey, he's signed up for 3 more years.. awesome!

I think that's nail - > head. We are slooooooow.

[azabob]

Why was he taken out of his natural position? Because he is a liability defensively due to a lack of leg speed on the spread... which was the case again yesterday.

But hey, he's signed up for 3 more years.. awesome!

Four years Mantis, four years. 2024, 2025, 2026 and 2027.

[bulldogtragic]

Four years Mantis, four years. 2024, 2025, 2026 and 2027.

No other club is touching that without a salary contribution from us. That?s Grundy-esq.

I think trade him, but that might not be easy. Keeping him is with its risks too.

[azabob]

No other club is touching that without a salary contribution from us. That’s Grundy-esq.

Yep and at best we'd get a 3rd-4th rounder for him.

[AshMac]

- time for a new fitness coach
- time for a new head coach
- hawks are so much more competitive that the average team 3rd last

[Bullies]

Four years Mantis, four years. 2024, 2025, 2026 and 2027. The sad part is if he does hang around how slow will he be in 2027. What were they thinking with this contract and then they made him VC as well.

[Bullies]

Grant Thomas summed it up pretty well - "Bulldogs are pretty soft when you think about it. When they are up and about they are all in unison but when they are challenged or need all hands on deck they go missing".

[bulldogtragic]

Yep and at best we'd get a 3rd-4th rounder for him.

We’ve really done it this time. But let’s celebrate him getting 20 touches again. Bevo gets lauded for swapping players around. But JJ is super important this year so what about the three wasted years in the forward pocket? Now Macrae has moved and gone backwards. Maybe he needed to hide Jack? But Jack is seemingly going backward at a rate of knots.

Do we just take the hit of a third and and paying some salary?

[Grantysghost]

Grant Thomas summed it up pretty well - "Bulldogs are pretty soft when you think about it. When they are up and about they are all in unison but when they are challenged or need all hands on deck they go missing".

No way I thought he was a Dogs fan.

Maybe he should watch the 21 Semi Final

[bulldogtragic]

No way I thought he was a Dogs fan.

Maybe he should watch the 21 Semi Final

Stop living in the past man. Live in the now.

We have warning alarms ringing.

[Grantysghost]

We?ve really done it this time. But let?s celebrate him getting 20 touches again. Bevo gets lauded for swapping players around. But JJ is super important this year so what about the three wasted years in the forward pocket? Now Macrae has moved and gone backwards. Maybe he needed to hide Jack? But Jack is seemingly going backward at a rate of knots.

Do we just take the hit of a third and and paying some salary?

What if we get his brother in on base, and Jack can give him cash in hand out of his salary.

Jack is our VC and a club legend I don't think he's all that bad personally.

We've gone eggs in on a consistent midfield this year with less rotations which I think hasn't worked.

[bulldogtragic]

What if we get his brother in on base, and Jack can give him cash in hand out of his salary.

Jack is our VC and a club legend I don't think he's all that bad personally.

We've gone eggs in on a consistent midfield this year with less rotations which I think hasn't worked.

Jack is way too slow, has no hurt factor and seemingly can’t defend. He is our VC and won a flag with us. They are unrelated comments.

[Grantysghost]

Jack is way too slow, has no hurt factor and seemingly can?t defend. He is our VC and won a flag with us. They are unrelated comments.

He's a 3 x AA too.

Deserves respect. How is he the problem? All the things he does now are the same as he's always done aren't they?

[Danjul]

He's a 3 x AA too.

Deserves respect. How is he the problem? All the things he does now are the same as he's always done aren't they?

He is not a problem In any form in my football universe.

Yesterdays defeat hinged on three predictable factors:

i. English- mauled in the ruck the last time we played Hawthorn. Worse this time.
ii. Naughton - who is reliably unable to kick goals from 30 m when the game is tight.
iii. Selecting a genuinely out of form small forward so people can feel a warm glow.

In other words we were doomed before the game began.

Next week, not so much.

[bulldogtragic]

He's a 3 x AA too.

Deserves respect. How is he the problem? All the things he does now are the same as he's always done aren't they?

I respect him immensely for the player he’s been and for what he has given to the club. But right now, I think he’s cooked.

He’s in a different role and it’s not working particularly well. He’s getting exposed for leg speed, defensive work and not having any hurt factor. I think he’s a shadow of his best version.

[bornadog]

i. English- mauled in the ruck the last time we played Hawthorn. Worse this time.

Hitouts to Adv were Reeves 14, English 13

Disposals

Reeves 10, zero contested
English 10, 6 contested

- hardly a mauling.

[Grantysghost]

Hitouts to Adv were Reeves 14, English 13

Disposals

Reeves 10, zero contested
English 10, 6 contested

- hardly a mauling.

It was a good contest. However, English should be beating guys like Reeves in that sense I think I give the points to the Hawks man.

[Sedat]

It was a good contest. However, English should be beating guys like Reeves in that sense I think I give the points to the Hawks man.
Yep. We should be expecting far more than breaking even from someone with English's experience and who in the AA conversation. He's not solely culpable but our clearance work yesterday was unacceptable from such a vaunted and talented group of mids.

[Danjul]

Hitouts to Adv were Reeves 14, English 13

Disposals

Reeves 10, zero contested
English 10, 6 contested

- hardly a mauling.
I said last time, at Marvel.

Reeves had 50% more hitouts and disposals than English.

At the time the score board indicated that Hawthorn dominated the clearances in the first quarter+

The selection danger was English might be held. The warning signs were flashing.

This time English struggled, except for some nice hitouts to Hawthorn players.

No AA dominance to be seen. No momentum for our mids after Libba went off. Reeves neutralised English?s contribution. Big bonus for them. As the afl website says, the Hawks were dominant at the stoppages.

Fortunately our back line held up but were let down by the forwards.

[angelopetraglia]

English had 10 touches. That is a complete and utter failure in a game where we needed him to deliver for us. He has averaged almost 20 touches per game this year.

In the most important game of the year, with everything on the line he goes at 50% of his average.

[bulldogtragic]

English had 10 touches. That is a complete and utter failure in a game where we needed him to deliver for us. He has averaged almost 20 touches per game this year.

In the most important game of the year, with everything on the line he goes at 50% of his average.

Is he worth $1.1M a season? I hope he says his demands are closer to $900,000. But big men on huge money get paid to deliver. Both he and Naughton aren’t delivering on those bucks.

[angelopetraglia]

Is he worth $1.1M a season? I hope he says his demands are closer to $900,000. But big men on huge money get paid to deliver. Both he and Naughton aren’t delivering on those bucks.

No he is not. He is not Max Gawn. He doesn't have that influence.

Can anyone name a big game against a quality opponent where English was the difference and dragged across the line in a win? I may be unfair in my perception at the moment and not being partial. But I can't think of a single game.

[Critter]

1. At times, our tackling is embarrassing. Against Richmond, we often double-teamed when tackling and it worked, to a degree. Yesterday, Hawthorn were too hard at the contest for double teaming. Individual tackling skills were on open display and too often we were nowhere near the required standard.
2. We're in trouble whenever the opposition spreads hard. Combination of lack of leg speed and poor defensive techniques by midfield?
3. Where was scenario training in the last 3 minutes?

[bulldogtragic]

No he is not. He is not Max Gawn. He doesn't have that influence.

Can anyone name a big game against a quality opponent where English was the difference and dragged across the line in a win? I may be unfair in my perception at the moment and not being partial. But I can't think of a single game.

This is the dilemma. All our chips are on Tim, so if we don’t like his salary demand and trading now is better than FA next year. Hopefully his salary demand is tough but fair. But if he wants huge money then I want to see the ROI and as you say in big games, it’s just not there.

Just one of many things to think about. But if the off field stays the same, we will just sign him to whatever (like Macrae long term) and deal with the future when it bites us in the arse.

Some new dispassionate critical thinkers might be what is needed to make some tough calls. Based on the re-signings to date, we won’t make any tough calls. As I’ve said, then we deserve what we get.

[JanLorMill]

Hitouts to Adv were Reeves 14, English 13

Disposals

Reeves 10, zero contested
English 10, 6 contested

- hardly a mauling.
Where is the stat for at least 2 English centre bounce knocks straight to Hawks midfield who cleared it directly into the Hawks F50?

[Critter]

Second quarter. Watch the reply, there for all to see

[bornadog]

Where is the stat for at least 2 English centre bounce knocks straight to Hawks midfield who cleared it directly into the Hawks F50?

Where was our midfielder more like it

[azabob]

Where was our midfielder more like it

Clearly not where English tapped the ball to ;)

[bornadog]

Clearly not where English tapped the ball to ;)

Haha

[Critter]

Where is the stat for at least 2 English centre bounce knocks straight to Hawks midfield who cleared it directly into the Hawks F50?

Looks like you're having difficulty finding the moment. It was at 9 minutes and 50 seconds to go in the second quarter. English put the first tap straight into the path of Nash, who handballed to Worpel, who handballed to Newcomb, who ran in and goaled. The ball returned to the centre and English then put his next tap straight down the throat of Newcomb.

Two consecutive centre bounce knocks straight to the Hawks midfield. Commentators were less than impressed also.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

We're scared to lose English because of the time we've invested, not because he's a great player. There's a difference.

I'm chips in on trading him. You don't NEED a ruck to accumulate 20+ possessions, it's a luxury, but it means SFA if they continually fail the physical test. English is the blueprint of our side - looks great when all is going well and we have momentum, but remains powerless when we're shoveling shit up hill.

[Scorlibo]

Where was our midfielder more like it

It was Jack Macrae in one instance not looking at the ball, it sailed right past him.

[JanLorMill]

Hit outs to disadvantage

[jeemak]

So hit outs don't count if the opposition ruck hits it to our midfielders but they do count if Tim hits it to opposition midfielders........

[JanLorMill]

So hit outs don't count if the opposition ruck hits it to our midfielders but they do count if Tim hits it to opposition midfielders........
?
hit outs are just hit outs. We count hit outs to advantage too. We don’t count hit outs to disadvantage.
You tend to notice the ones that directly to opposition for a goal and almost the same happen at the next centre bounce. I can’t say Reeves did that because I don’t remember but I doubt it.

[Bullies]

?
hit outs are just hit outs. We count hit outs to advantage too. We don’t count hit outs to disadvantage.
You tend to notice the ones that directly to opposition for a goal and almost the same happen at the next centre bounce. I can’t say Reeves did that because I don’t remember but I doubt it. Hit outs to advantage also count where we take the ball and get tackled straight away. No advantage but still counted.

[bornadog]

?
hit outs are just hit outs. We count hit outs to advantage too. We don’t count hit outs to disadvantage.
You tend to notice the ones that directly to opposition for a goal and almost the same happen at the next centre bounce. I can’t say Reeves did that because I don’t remember but I doubt it.

HITOUTS

Reeves 42 - including 14 to adv. - 28 to either opposition or to no ones adv.

English 32 - including 13 to adv. - 19 to either opposition or to no ones adv.

No use getting a mountain of hitouts if they are not to your teams advantage.

Yes Hawks grabbed those two in the 2nd quarter before our mids did.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

HITOUTS

Reeves 42 - including 14 to adv. - 28 to either opposition or to no ones adv.

English 32 - including 13 to adv. - 19 to either opposition or to no ones adv.

No use getting a mountain of hitouts if they are not to your teams advantage.

Yes Hawks grabbed those two in the 2nd quarter before our mids did.

Interesting stats.

Reeves is a relative nobody on base salary who marginally defeated a touted AA ruck. It's one game, and I haven't seen enough of him to form a proper opinion, but I do think it further emphasizes the point that English isn't worth a cent over $700k.

Based on these stats, the larger growth is in Reeves' game - he's getting his hand to more ball. Get to work on where you're hitting it and how you're connecting with the mids.

Unless you have a Max Gawn, the ruck spot just needs somebody to have a presence. Anything else is luxury. English's game is unfortunately back to front for us.

[bornadog]

Interesting stats.

Reeves is a relative nobody on base salary who marginally defeated a touted AA ruck. It's one game, and I haven't seen enough of him to form a proper opinion, but I do think it further emphasizes the point that English isn't worth a cent over $700k.

Based on these stats, the larger growth is in Reeves' game - he's getting his hand to more ball. Get to work on where you're hitting it and how you're connecting with the mids.

Unless you have a Max Gawn, the ruck spot just needs somebody to have a presence. Anything else is luxury. English's game is unfortunately back to front for us.

Reeves is no slouch, he is ranked top ten for Hitouts and top 6 for HTA

However, English is top 3 for HTA, and top 3 for Hitouts. English is also second to Rowan Marshall for most AFL disposals amongst ruckman, number one by a mile for Marks, 5th in cont Marks and cont poss.

Maybe you think he is not worth the money, but it is what the market is paying

Not sure why he is not rated by some on WOOF.

I will say his around the ground work was lacking on Sunday.

[JanLorMill]

HITOUTS

Reeves 42 - including 14 to adv. - 28 to either opposition or to no ones adv.

English 32 - including 13 to adv. - 19 to either opposition or to no ones adv.

No use getting a mountain of hitouts if they are not to your teams advantage.

Yes Hawks grabbed those two in the 2nd quarter before our mids did.
Not sure what those stats prove. All that was mentioned was at 2 of English's hit outs in a row went direct to Hawks midfielder, one resulted in a goal and the other F50 entry.

[bornadog]

Not sure what those stats prove. All that was mentioned was at 2 of English's hit outs in a row went direct to Hawks midfielder, one resulted in a goal and the other F50 entry.

Just some stats for you :D

[lemmon]

Interesting stats.

Reeves is a relative nobody on base salary who marginally defeated a touted AA ruck. It's one game, and I haven't seen enough of him to form a proper opinion, but I do think it further emphasizes the point that English isn't worth a cent over $700k.

Based on these stats, the larger growth is in Reeves' game - he's getting his hand to more ball. Get to work on where you're hitting it and how you're connecting with the mids.

Unless you have a Max Gawn, the ruck spot just needs somebody to have a presence. Anything else is luxury. English's game is unfortunately back to front for us.

My personal view is that hit-outs are the most pointless stat in footy and they tell you nothing about which midfield is actually winning the battle...BUT, what's the point having a ruck like a Mumford, Sweet, or a Will Minson when it's obvious that Bevo simply won't play them?

I think it's been clear since Bevo came in that unless you're a ruck that can run and get around the ground, you're not getting a game. I don't really see the point going after or developing a ruck that isn't in the English mould when it's clearly not what Bevo thinks is acceptable in that position.

[bornadog]

My personal view is that hit-outs are the most pointless stat in footy and they tell you nothing about which midfield is actually winning the battle...BUT, what's the point having a ruck like a Mumford, Sweet, or a Will Minson when it's obvious that Bevo simply won't play them?

I think it's been clear since Bevo came in that unless you're a ruck that can run and get around the ground, you're not getting a game. I don't really see the point going after or developing a ruck that isn't in the English mould when it's clearly not what Bevo thinks is acceptable in that position.

Wouldn't you rather a ruckman that can do more than just stand there at ruck duels and do nothing else. We missed this on Sunday because English didn't get his hands on the ball around the ground.

On Hitouts, that is why I look at HTA, has more meaning.

[lemmon]

On Hitouts, that is why I look at HTA, has more meaning.

I mean - I guess it should, but does it really?

Looking at the games on the weekend:

Collingwood won HTA 11 to 7 but lost clearances 44-36
North won HTA 12-11 and won clearances 39-34
Gold Coast won HTA 11 to 5 but lost clearances 47-43
Dees won HTA 13 to 5 and won clearances 45 to 43
Freo won HTA 11 to 9 and won clearances 43 to 30
Tigers won HTA 17 to 9 and lost clearances 30 to 29
GWS won HTA 14 to 4 and lost clearances 40 to 33
Adelaide won HTA 16 to 9 and won clearances 44 to 38

So only half the sides that played actually turned winning hit-outs to advantage into a win at clearance and some of the biggest differentials in HTA numbers still resulted in sides losing clearances overall.

I think the numbers we have publicly available that quantify how a ruckman performs at stoppage are pure crap and until there's a model that tells how much value is actually extracted from a hit-out, looking at the stats is worthless.

And I do agree with you - I think Tim is an excellent player and there's huge value in what he does around the ground. I thought it was probably his poorest game of the year on the weekend, but while he wants to be at the club, there's huge value in a guy who is already a consensus top-3 ruck in the game at 26 years old.

[Scorlibo]

I mean - I guess it should, but does it really?

Looking at the games on the weekend:

Collingwood won HTA 11 to 7 but lost clearances 44-36
North won HTA 12-11 and won clearances 39-34
Gold Coast won HTA 11 to 5 but lost clearances 47-43
Dees won HTA 13 to 5 and won clearances 45 to 43
Freo won HTA 11 to 9 and won clearances 43 to 30
Tigers won HTA 17 to 9 and lost clearances 30 to 29
GWS won HTA 14 to 4 and lost clearances 40 to 33
Adelaide won HTA 16 to 9 and won clearances 44 to 38

So only half the sides that played actually turned winning hit-outs to advantage into a win at clearance and some of the biggest differentials in HTA numbers still resulted in sides losing clearances overall.

I think the numbers we have publicly available that quantify how a ruckman performs at stoppage are pure crap and until there's a model that tells how much value is actually extracted from a hit-out, looking at the stats is worthless.

And I do agree with you - I think Tim is an excellent player and there's huge value in what he does around the ground. I thought it was probably his poorest game of the year on the weekend, but while he wants to be at the club, there's huge value in a guy who is already a consensus top-3 ruck in the game at 26 years old.

Appreciate the analysis. This shows weak correlation between HTA and clearances, but doesn't diminish bornadogs' point - HTA are more meaningful than hitouts (and are more closely correlated to clearances).

To your point that the stats around hitouts are worthless - I'm reminded of the adage 'what can't be measured can't be managed'. I see a lot of hand wringing over the increased role of stats in footy, and statements like 'stats only tell you so much' are common. I don't doubt that there are intangibles that do influence outcomes, yet so long as they're intangible, they're also intractable. So if there's something 'else' going on at ruck contests, the challenge is to identify it and measure it.

[jeemak]

Appreciate the analysis. This shows weak correlation between HTA and clearances, but doesn't diminish bornadogs' point - HTA are more meaningful than hitouts (and are more closely correlated to clearances).

To your point that the stats around hitouts are worthless - I'm reminded of the adage 'what can't be measured can't be managed'. I see a lot of hand wringing over the increased role of stats in footy, and statements like 'stats only tell you so much' are common. I don't doubt that there are intangibles that do influence outcomes, yet so long as they're intangible, they're also intractable. So if there's something 'else' going on at ruck contests, the challenge is to identify it and measure it.

I didn't know you were so passionate about statistics.

[EasternWest]

Appreciate the analysis. This shows weak correlation between HTA and clearances, but doesn't diminish bornadogs' point - HTA are more meaningful than hitouts (and are more closely correlated to clearances).

To your point that the stats around hitouts are worthless - I'm reminded of the adage 'what can't be measured can't be managed'. I see a lot of hand wringing over the increased role of stats in footy, and statements like 'stats only tell you so much' are common. I don't doubt that there are intangibles that do influence outcomes, yet so long as they're intangible, they're also intractable. So if there's something 'else' going on at ruck contests, the challenge is to identify it and measure it.

This is so much more intelligent than anything I've ever posted on here.

[jeemak]

This is so much more intelligent than anything I've ever posted on here.

That could be your signature.

[jeemak]

But you'd have to post "refer to my signature" which would be inconvenient.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

This is so much more intelligent than anything I've ever posted on here.

Not to disagree with your message's intent, but it's setting the bar pretty low in the comparison stakes isn't it?

[jeemak]

Not to disagree with your message's intent, but it's setting the bar pretty low in the comparison stakes isn't it?

It really is a quality over quantity proposition with you these days.

[EasternWest]

Not to disagree with your message's intent, but it's setting the bar pretty low in the comparison stakes isn't it?

Oh I don't know I didn't understand any of it it just seemed intelligent. Refer to my signature.