Raw Toast
20-05-2008, 04:28 PM
Thanks for the job this week, it was fun to have a chance to follow in the footsteps of the excellent previews we've had so far this season.
Match Details
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne at Telstra Dome, 4.40pm [Eastern].
TV: Foxtel. Radio: ABC Grandstand, SEN
Milestones
Western Bulldogs: Will Minson 50 Games
North Melbourne: Brent Harvey 250 Games
Form this season
Western Bulldogs: 7 Wins, 1 Draw.
North Melbourne: 4 Wins, 1 Draw, 3 losses. The Roos have been up and down. They’ve been run over by Essendon and Hawthorn, smashed by Adelaide, but hung onto draw with a fast-finishing (cheating?) Sydney, ran over the top of the Magpies and West Coast, and dispatched the Tigers and Demons.
Players missing or in doubt
Western Bulldogs:
Shaun Higgins (ankle) – 9 weeks
Scott West (knee) – in doubt
Tim Callan (calf) – at least in doubt
Mulligan, Bouman and Shaw also missed last week’s games.
North Melbourne:
Nathan Grima (knee) - season
Leigh Adams (knee) - season
Robbie Tarrant (shoulder) - 8 weeks
Aaron Edwards (broken leg) - 7-8 weeks
Alan Obst (punctured lung) - 4 weeks
Lachlan Hansen (knee) - 4 weeks
Andrew Swallow (ankle) - 4 weeks
Jesse Smith (hamstring) - 4 weeks
Levi Greenwood (groin) - 2 weeks
Daniel Pratt (groin) - Test
Daniel Wells (jarred knee) - Test
Recent Matches
North have won the last three, and Laidley has a 3-1 record vs Eade at the Dogs.
Round 22, 2 Sep 2007 Telstra Dome Western Bulldogs defeated by Kangaroos
6.5 6.5 11.5 14.9 93
4.4 10.9 16.13 23.19 157
The Bulldogs started off brightly but failed to score in the second term and struggled to run out their last match of the season. North’s inaccuracy limited the margin to 64 points. Daniel Wells pocketed the 3 Brownlow votes, with Hamish McIntosh getting 2 and Brady Rawlings 1.
Round 13, 1 Jul 2007 MCG K def WB 111-85 (Archer’s infamous milestone game)
Round 14, 9 Jul 2006 MCG WB def by K 82-94.
Round 8, 14 May 2005 Telstra Dome K def by WB 92-118.
Round 21, 21 Aug 2004 Telstra Dome WB def K 136-106 (Crofty and Garlick’s send-off)
Possible Changes
Western Bulldogs:
Farren Ray, Wayde Skipper, Peter Street, Callan Ward and Guy O’Keefe are all pressing for places, and Scott West and Tim Callan might be available as well. Tom Williams, Stephen Tiller, Josh Hill and Cam Wight are all a bit vulnerable. I know there is an argument that Williams was brought in early to get match-fit for the Hawks, but I think we’re better served with him getting confidence at Williamstown, rather than exposing him to the intense pressure that the Kangaroos (and Hawks) are likely to create.
North Melbourne:
Are clearly struggling with injuries. If Pratt is fit expect him to come in for Alan Obst, otherwise Scott Thompson might come in, though he had a shocker against Frankston, and Leigh Brown didn’t impress for Werribee either. Lindsay Thomas had an off game against the Eagles but good form prior to that should keep him in. Jess Sinclair or Ben Ross might come in for Wells if he has to miss, while some North barrackers want Gavin Urquhart or maybe even Ben Davies to come in for Sam Power, but I can’t see that happening. Others also want Watt dropped but their cupboard is not brimming with options at the moment.
Style
The Kangaroos succeeded last year by adding a bit of quick ball-movement and associated risk-taking to their strong contested ball game. But Laidley and his team still seem overly ready to go back into their defensive shell. This year they have struggled to play with much fluency, apart from a few quarters against Melbourne and Richmond and their end of game flurry against Collingwood. You would think Nathan Thompson coming back and playing ok would make them a better team than last year, but while he leads their goal-kicking with 20, they actually seem more one-dimensional.
Their excellent pressure skills are keeping them in contests. They are third for tackles per game, and lead the league in the ratio of tackles made v tackles made against them. They are also concede very few handballs per game and tend to win way more than their fare share of free kicks. On the downside, they are 15th for disposals, 13th for kicks, 14th for marks and 12th for goals.
They tend to kick long a bit more than we do (49.4 to 32.2) and have a slightly higher kick to handpass ratio (1.5 to 1.4). They take less contested marks per game than us (7.5 to 8.9), though the percentage of their marks that are contested is slightly higher (8.3% to 8%). More surprising perhaps, is that they are currently winning fewer first possessions (33.2 to 38.4), clearances (32.5 to 36.5), and contested possessions (33.1 to 42.2). They are however, considerably up on ‘one-percenters’ per game (84.8 to 69.8).
North generally aim to either goal from marks to their tall forward or crumbs to their dangerous small brigade. They also pride themselves on their forward pressure and on limiting the opposition’s run. It will be interesting to see if we try and create by hand or instead opt to kick a bit more. We struggled early against Sydney with poor hands (giving and receiving), and ended up kicking a bit more. North have proved vulnerable this season, however, to quick ball movement, and if (and it’s a big if) we can get the space we should be able to slice them up.
Both Eade and Laidley like to at least start games with a loose man behind play. This has worked for us when we’ve been able to still pressure the ball-carrier, and has failed when we’ve moved back and simply conceded space in the middle of the ground. I generally prefer it when we play one-on-one and deny our opponents a loose player to kick it to, as we did against Freo in the last quarter. North’s tendency to kick the ball long more frequently than other teams can also take their opponent’s loose defender out of the play, however if we exert enough midfield pressure, someone like Lake should get a few cheap marks.
Key Duels
Hudson and Minson vs Hale and McIntosh
North’s developing ruckmen can be dangerous going forward and might have a small edge around the grounds, but Hudson and Minson combined have been winning more contested ball and clearances. Hudson’s grunt and repeated efforts are vital against teams like Roos, and Minson has kickstarted us a number of times, especially late in games where he has been used as our primary ruck.
Cooney vs Rawlings
Last game Eddie Sansbury gave Cooney a bath and kicked five goals to boot, however Sansbury’s out of favour after only one game against the Swans where he managed around one error per disposal. Rawlings is one of the competition’s premier taggers and they have to decide whether to use him on Griffen or Cooney. I suspect they’ll go to Cooney because he’s been getting the possessions and hype.
Griffen vs Simpson/Harris/Power
Laidley knows how damaging Griffen can be because he picked up 31 touches in the 2006 game. They’ll try and block his run and I suspect they’ll rotate a few players on him. Both Simpson and Harris can play relatively negating roles, and I expect Power to get a go at some stage. Griffen’s run has created an inspirational goal in each of the past two games, so North will be focussing on giving him as little space as possible and in making their tackles stick (easier said than done, but they are a very good tackling side). I’d like him to take Power to the goal-square, and would like to see him leading for the ball more whoever is on him.
Boyd vs Harvey
Harvey is North’s champion, is their leading possession winner and will be looking to dominate in his 250th. It’s another big ask for Boyd, but he’s taken some scalps. That said, he was too loose on Palmer, and seemed to be drawn towards the ball a bit much. I’d like to see him play a more negative game on Harvey, because if he can be shut down then North will really struggle. Aker might spend a bit of time on him if need be, as he did with Palmer late in the game against Freo.
Hill vs Wells
Ok this is speculative because both might not even play on the weekend. Nevertheless, Wells is very dangerous, and it might help Hill to have someone like him to contend with. Hill did his some of his best work of the season when placed on Nick Dal Santo and could hurt Wells going the other way in a similar manner.
Dale Morris vs Corey Jones
Jones has been struggling and Morris has had an up and down season so far. You would think that North will have to score a bit more than their average of 13 goals a season to win it, and Jones is one of the players who would have to stand up for this to happen.
Hargrave v Campbell/Thomas/McMahon/Harding
Like most weeks Shaggy will probably play on a few different opponents. He hasn’t set the world on fire so far, but his good work has often gone unnoticed and he was excellent against the very dangerous Farmer last week. If we don’t drop either Williams or Wight then Hargrave will need to play small again.
Murphy vs Gibson
Murphy has been on fire, though he still tends to pop in and out of the game. He’s much more efficient in front of goal now and I think the Roos will really struggle to contain him. Gibson is probably their best bet, as he can compete in the air and around the ground, but he’s not got the best footy smarts and might be run off his feet.
Preview
North have been struggling and are undermanned, so on form we should clearly win this match. However, Harvey’s 250th threatens to throw a spanner into the works, and as others have noted, the Kangaroos are really likely to set themselves for a big effort. In other words, it will be another big test, and we will once again really be the hunted. Bring it on I say.
Johnson’s been developing his leadership this season, partly by improving his defensive application and partly by clearly rousing the team when they need it. He gave them a big spray at quarter time v the Swans and inspired them to great heights at the three quarter time break v the Dockers as well. A fired up North is another big challenge for him and the team’s leaders more generally. Hahn is another who will be needed, just like he was against Sydney.
Both teams have plenty of wildcards. Ours include Akermanis, Welsh, Murphy and Hahn, their’s include Wells, Harding, Jones, Campbell and Thomas. Like most teams, they’ll struggle to contain our multi-pronged forward line if they don’t limit supply. If we can match them for intensity in the contests and pressure them through the middle then our run and skill should be too much. I’m nervous, and expect it to be hard-fought and close early, but think we should be able to run over the top of them late in the game.
Dogs by 27.
Match Details
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne at Telstra Dome, 4.40pm [Eastern].
TV: Foxtel. Radio: ABC Grandstand, SEN
Milestones
Western Bulldogs: Will Minson 50 Games
North Melbourne: Brent Harvey 250 Games
Form this season
Western Bulldogs: 7 Wins, 1 Draw.
North Melbourne: 4 Wins, 1 Draw, 3 losses. The Roos have been up and down. They’ve been run over by Essendon and Hawthorn, smashed by Adelaide, but hung onto draw with a fast-finishing (cheating?) Sydney, ran over the top of the Magpies and West Coast, and dispatched the Tigers and Demons.
Players missing or in doubt
Western Bulldogs:
Shaun Higgins (ankle) – 9 weeks
Scott West (knee) – in doubt
Tim Callan (calf) – at least in doubt
Mulligan, Bouman and Shaw also missed last week’s games.
North Melbourne:
Nathan Grima (knee) - season
Leigh Adams (knee) - season
Robbie Tarrant (shoulder) - 8 weeks
Aaron Edwards (broken leg) - 7-8 weeks
Alan Obst (punctured lung) - 4 weeks
Lachlan Hansen (knee) - 4 weeks
Andrew Swallow (ankle) - 4 weeks
Jesse Smith (hamstring) - 4 weeks
Levi Greenwood (groin) - 2 weeks
Daniel Pratt (groin) - Test
Daniel Wells (jarred knee) - Test
Recent Matches
North have won the last three, and Laidley has a 3-1 record vs Eade at the Dogs.
Round 22, 2 Sep 2007 Telstra Dome Western Bulldogs defeated by Kangaroos
6.5 6.5 11.5 14.9 93
4.4 10.9 16.13 23.19 157
The Bulldogs started off brightly but failed to score in the second term and struggled to run out their last match of the season. North’s inaccuracy limited the margin to 64 points. Daniel Wells pocketed the 3 Brownlow votes, with Hamish McIntosh getting 2 and Brady Rawlings 1.
Round 13, 1 Jul 2007 MCG K def WB 111-85 (Archer’s infamous milestone game)
Round 14, 9 Jul 2006 MCG WB def by K 82-94.
Round 8, 14 May 2005 Telstra Dome K def by WB 92-118.
Round 21, 21 Aug 2004 Telstra Dome WB def K 136-106 (Crofty and Garlick’s send-off)
Possible Changes
Western Bulldogs:
Farren Ray, Wayde Skipper, Peter Street, Callan Ward and Guy O’Keefe are all pressing for places, and Scott West and Tim Callan might be available as well. Tom Williams, Stephen Tiller, Josh Hill and Cam Wight are all a bit vulnerable. I know there is an argument that Williams was brought in early to get match-fit for the Hawks, but I think we’re better served with him getting confidence at Williamstown, rather than exposing him to the intense pressure that the Kangaroos (and Hawks) are likely to create.
North Melbourne:
Are clearly struggling with injuries. If Pratt is fit expect him to come in for Alan Obst, otherwise Scott Thompson might come in, though he had a shocker against Frankston, and Leigh Brown didn’t impress for Werribee either. Lindsay Thomas had an off game against the Eagles but good form prior to that should keep him in. Jess Sinclair or Ben Ross might come in for Wells if he has to miss, while some North barrackers want Gavin Urquhart or maybe even Ben Davies to come in for Sam Power, but I can’t see that happening. Others also want Watt dropped but their cupboard is not brimming with options at the moment.
Style
The Kangaroos succeeded last year by adding a bit of quick ball-movement and associated risk-taking to their strong contested ball game. But Laidley and his team still seem overly ready to go back into their defensive shell. This year they have struggled to play with much fluency, apart from a few quarters against Melbourne and Richmond and their end of game flurry against Collingwood. You would think Nathan Thompson coming back and playing ok would make them a better team than last year, but while he leads their goal-kicking with 20, they actually seem more one-dimensional.
Their excellent pressure skills are keeping them in contests. They are third for tackles per game, and lead the league in the ratio of tackles made v tackles made against them. They are also concede very few handballs per game and tend to win way more than their fare share of free kicks. On the downside, they are 15th for disposals, 13th for kicks, 14th for marks and 12th for goals.
They tend to kick long a bit more than we do (49.4 to 32.2) and have a slightly higher kick to handpass ratio (1.5 to 1.4). They take less contested marks per game than us (7.5 to 8.9), though the percentage of their marks that are contested is slightly higher (8.3% to 8%). More surprising perhaps, is that they are currently winning fewer first possessions (33.2 to 38.4), clearances (32.5 to 36.5), and contested possessions (33.1 to 42.2). They are however, considerably up on ‘one-percenters’ per game (84.8 to 69.8).
North generally aim to either goal from marks to their tall forward or crumbs to their dangerous small brigade. They also pride themselves on their forward pressure and on limiting the opposition’s run. It will be interesting to see if we try and create by hand or instead opt to kick a bit more. We struggled early against Sydney with poor hands (giving and receiving), and ended up kicking a bit more. North have proved vulnerable this season, however, to quick ball movement, and if (and it’s a big if) we can get the space we should be able to slice them up.
Both Eade and Laidley like to at least start games with a loose man behind play. This has worked for us when we’ve been able to still pressure the ball-carrier, and has failed when we’ve moved back and simply conceded space in the middle of the ground. I generally prefer it when we play one-on-one and deny our opponents a loose player to kick it to, as we did against Freo in the last quarter. North’s tendency to kick the ball long more frequently than other teams can also take their opponent’s loose defender out of the play, however if we exert enough midfield pressure, someone like Lake should get a few cheap marks.
Key Duels
Hudson and Minson vs Hale and McIntosh
North’s developing ruckmen can be dangerous going forward and might have a small edge around the grounds, but Hudson and Minson combined have been winning more contested ball and clearances. Hudson’s grunt and repeated efforts are vital against teams like Roos, and Minson has kickstarted us a number of times, especially late in games where he has been used as our primary ruck.
Cooney vs Rawlings
Last game Eddie Sansbury gave Cooney a bath and kicked five goals to boot, however Sansbury’s out of favour after only one game against the Swans where he managed around one error per disposal. Rawlings is one of the competition’s premier taggers and they have to decide whether to use him on Griffen or Cooney. I suspect they’ll go to Cooney because he’s been getting the possessions and hype.
Griffen vs Simpson/Harris/Power
Laidley knows how damaging Griffen can be because he picked up 31 touches in the 2006 game. They’ll try and block his run and I suspect they’ll rotate a few players on him. Both Simpson and Harris can play relatively negating roles, and I expect Power to get a go at some stage. Griffen’s run has created an inspirational goal in each of the past two games, so North will be focussing on giving him as little space as possible and in making their tackles stick (easier said than done, but they are a very good tackling side). I’d like him to take Power to the goal-square, and would like to see him leading for the ball more whoever is on him.
Boyd vs Harvey
Harvey is North’s champion, is their leading possession winner and will be looking to dominate in his 250th. It’s another big ask for Boyd, but he’s taken some scalps. That said, he was too loose on Palmer, and seemed to be drawn towards the ball a bit much. I’d like to see him play a more negative game on Harvey, because if he can be shut down then North will really struggle. Aker might spend a bit of time on him if need be, as he did with Palmer late in the game against Freo.
Hill vs Wells
Ok this is speculative because both might not even play on the weekend. Nevertheless, Wells is very dangerous, and it might help Hill to have someone like him to contend with. Hill did his some of his best work of the season when placed on Nick Dal Santo and could hurt Wells going the other way in a similar manner.
Dale Morris vs Corey Jones
Jones has been struggling and Morris has had an up and down season so far. You would think that North will have to score a bit more than their average of 13 goals a season to win it, and Jones is one of the players who would have to stand up for this to happen.
Hargrave v Campbell/Thomas/McMahon/Harding
Like most weeks Shaggy will probably play on a few different opponents. He hasn’t set the world on fire so far, but his good work has often gone unnoticed and he was excellent against the very dangerous Farmer last week. If we don’t drop either Williams or Wight then Hargrave will need to play small again.
Murphy vs Gibson
Murphy has been on fire, though he still tends to pop in and out of the game. He’s much more efficient in front of goal now and I think the Roos will really struggle to contain him. Gibson is probably their best bet, as he can compete in the air and around the ground, but he’s not got the best footy smarts and might be run off his feet.
Preview
North have been struggling and are undermanned, so on form we should clearly win this match. However, Harvey’s 250th threatens to throw a spanner into the works, and as others have noted, the Kangaroos are really likely to set themselves for a big effort. In other words, it will be another big test, and we will once again really be the hunted. Bring it on I say.
Johnson’s been developing his leadership this season, partly by improving his defensive application and partly by clearly rousing the team when they need it. He gave them a big spray at quarter time v the Swans and inspired them to great heights at the three quarter time break v the Dockers as well. A fired up North is another big challenge for him and the team’s leaders more generally. Hahn is another who will be needed, just like he was against Sydney.
Both teams have plenty of wildcards. Ours include Akermanis, Welsh, Murphy and Hahn, their’s include Wells, Harding, Jones, Campbell and Thomas. Like most teams, they’ll struggle to contain our multi-pronged forward line if they don’t limit supply. If we can match them for intensity in the contests and pressure them through the middle then our run and skill should be too much. I’m nervous, and expect it to be hard-fought and close early, but think we should be able to run over the top of them late in the game.
Dogs by 27.