The New Situation

[Scorlibo]

Okay, so although I am still fuming, I have taken a trip to the AFL site and had a go at the ladder predictor. The way things are now, it would be an almighty achievement for us to come third, with fourth being perhaps a fifty/fifty. However, do we really want to come fourth and be choked by St Kilda? Would it be more beneficial to come 5th and play one of Port Adelaide, Essendon and Hawthorn all of whom we have beat convincingly so far this year.

The Doggies, as we all know, have Brisbane, Geelong and Collingwood in the run to the finals. Here is everyone else's situation:

Collingwood: Adelaide (away), Richmond, Sydney (home), Bulldogs.
Adelaide: Collingwood (home), Hawthorn (away), West Coast (home), Carlton (away).
Brisbane: Essendon (away), Bulldogs (away), Port Adelaide (home), Sydney (away).
Carlton: Port Adelaide (away), Melbourne, Adelaide (home).

With a bit of excel wizadry, plugging in the probability of each team's individual games,

Probability of the Dogs coming 3rd: 13% 4th: 39% 5th-8th: 48%

Collingwood's probability of coming 3rd is 69%.

So do we want 4th - the Saints - lose - then Brisbane/Carlton/Adelaide or...
do we want 5th - Ess/Port/Haw - most likely win - then most probably the Pies or Cats?

[mighty_west]

The way i'm feeling right now, doesn't matter who we play - straight sets :(, give me a few hours to cool down, might have a different opinion.

[bulldogtragic]

If we finish 4th and lose, we play the winners from the bottom 4 at home. Likely Brisbane and Adelaide in that secario. I prefer that to sudden death. But what's it all matter, this was a not negotiable game today. I so i thought...

[AndrewP6]

4th, for mine. Even so, I don't see us doing much damage in September - no, not solely based on today.

[Rocco Jones]

I did the predictor and had us coming 6th. I hope I am just being a negative nelly. I think that our season will end in the 2nd week of the finals.

[bulldogtragic]

I did the predictor and had us coming 6th. I hope I am just being a negative nelly. I think that our season will end in the 2nd week of the finals.
Do you have us beating Carlton in week one??

[angelopetraglia]

Hopefully Pies beat the Crows and Dons beat the Lions.

That will still leave us a game and percentage clear in 4th.

BUT ... our destiny is still in our hands.

If we win the last three we will finish 3rd no matter what.

I hope we can learn from today.

[angelopetraglia]

Ladder predictor = impossible.

Who have put today's result in it?

Too many variables. Still 29 results yet to be decided.

[Rocco Jones]

Do you have us beating Carlton in week one??

I have Adelaide coming in 7th and us beating them due to it being in Melbourne. Tonight's performance already has me changing my mind!

[Rocco Jones]

Ladder predictor = impossible.

Who have put today's result in it?

Too many variables. Still 29 results yet to be decided.

Pretty much.

[bulldogtragic]

I have Adelaide coming in 7th and us beating them due to it being in Melbourne. Tonight's performance already has me changing my mind!
I suppose going out in straight sets mean we get a lower pick. Are we tanking?

[Scorlibo]

Ladder predictor = impossible.

Who have put today's result in it?

Too many variables. Still 29 results yet to be decided.

Yes I have put today's result in, I promise you I have considered every game for each of Collingwood, Adelaide, Carlton, Brisbane and us.

[Rocco Jones]

If I had some faith in the Bulldogs actually taking advantage of it, I would be really barracking hard for Essendon right now.

[angelopetraglia]

If I had some faith in the Bulldogs actually taking advantage of it, I would be really barracking hard for Essendon right now.

Middle of next week, faith will be restored.

By Friday, we will be confident of victory against the Lions.

Saturday afternoon we will see no reason why we can't win the next three, snare third, upset the Cats in the first final and go straight into the prelim.

[bulldogtragic]

Middle of next week, faith will be restored.

By Friday, we will be confident of victory against the Lions.

Saturday afternoon we will see no reason why we can't win the next three, snare third, upset the Cats in the first final and go straight into the prelim.
.... Saturday night.... :(

[Rocco Jones]

Middle of next week, faith will be restored.

By Friday, we will be confident of victory against the Lions.

Saturday afternoon we will see no reason why we can't win the next three, snare third, upset the Cats in the first final and go straight into the prelim.

You underrate how pathetic I am. I already think we can do the fairytale!

[angelopetraglia]

If the tonight's games continue to go the way they are;

Dons lead by 15
Crows lead by 15

We will still be in 3rd position at the end of this round.

[comrade]

To maintain my sanity, I'm looking at it this way:

1. We perform well over the next 3 weeks and secure a top 4 spot - from there we can really have a crack at a flag.

2. We crumble over the next 3 weeks, limp into the finals and most likely get knocked out early - this means we secure a higher draft pick.

Both options can be perceived as having a positive angle to them.

[LostDoggy]

Essendon v Brisbane ends in a draw.

[comrade]

Essendon v Brisbane ends in a draw.

Shit for us.

[Rocco Jones]

Ouch! With the big percentage gap between us and the Lions, a draw is like a win for them.

[angelopetraglia]

Essendon v Brisbane ends in a draw.

There is no football God.

A draw is as good as a win for them Vs us, as our percentage was so much higher.

How did the Bombers lose that with the ball in their hands with 20 seconds go! What a shocking kick to a unmarked player!

A Brisbane loss would have salvaged something from today for us. For f*%!# sake!

[bulldogtragic]

I hope the players are hurting. They could be icing up with 2 games in hand, with a win next week all but wrapping things up. Now they fighting to stay top 4, which is not going to be the betting favourite.

I hiope it stings like a barb in the arse.

[KT31]

I suppose going out in straight sets mean we get a lower pick. Are we tanking?

Yeah for 50 years.

[Scorlibo]

Following tonights results,

Collingwood has moved from a 69% chance to an 88% chance of making 3rd.

Bulldogs moved down from a 52% chance to a 44% chance of making the top four, mostly due to Brisbane's draw - which in effect is a win.

[Remi Moses]

Gee how about not worrying about other sides and just friggin winning the final 3 games. Destiny is still in our own hands

[Scorlibo]

Gee how about not worrying about other sides and just friggin winning the final 3 games. Destiny is still in our own hands

Well that would be nice. The reality is though that we'll be scrapping it out for a spot in the four with Adelaide, Carlton and Brisbane due to our loss today. If we'd won we would only have to win another one game from our last 3 to make the four.

[Remi Moses]

One of our last 3 is the pies . Win all three and we're 3rd

[Scraggers]

Gee how about not worrying about other sides and just friggin winning the final 3 games. Destiny is still in our own hands

thank you RM ... About bloody time ... We are still plying finals footy again this year ... where we finish is up to us ...

When we beat Brisbane next week we consolodate our position in the top 4

Our destiny ... our hands

Negative Nancies ... take a cup of concrete :mad:

[NoParkingOnMatchDays]

I hope the players are hurting. They could be icing up with 2 games in hand, with a win next week all but wrapping things up. Now they fighting to stay top 4, which is not going to be the betting favourite.

I hiope it stings like a barb in the arse.

I was at a do after the game and the players were there. They were absolutely gutted. Friend of mine who is not a big footy fan saw Johnno up close and said that bloke had black eyes. I asked him what he meant and he said he looks like he's going to kill.

It gave me a bit of hope that we'll see the good dogs next week.

[The Pie Man]

I was at a do after the game and the players were there. They were absolutely gutted. Friend of mine who is not a big footy fan saw Johnno up close and said that bloke had black eyes. I asked him what he meant and he said he looks like he's going to kill.

It gave me a bit of hope that we'll see the good dogs next week.

Here's the weird beauty of a loss like this - it's round 19, and we're still top 4, and now they're angry. They've got to use it

Loss not ideal, but since it's the reality, use what you can out of it.

[LostDoggy]

It has always been a strange feeling supporting the Dogs. I was nervous as hell going into yesterdays game knowing that they would some how find a way to lose. It is always the way. Thankfully, I mainly have the opposite feeling when going into a game like next week against Brisbane.

Top 4 is still very possible. If we can't beat Brisbane and Collingwood in the H & A (knowing our luck, Geelong will bring back Scarlett, Taylor and Ottens against us!), then what's the point of finishing top 4 anyway?

[bulldogtragic]

^^^

Great point and sums up our situation perfectly. After all we've only beaten Adelaide and Port Adleaide this year, and Port are in the 8 on default. Not much confidence that we haven't racked up wins against the other top 8 teams.

[LostDoggy]

I was / still am pi55ed about yesterday. But whats done is done. It is not the end of the world If we are going to be a half serious threat in September we have to beat Brisbane, Geelong and Collingwood and what better time to do it than now...

Few changes, we need to reward blokes that have been in the two's and give some of poor performers over the last month or a spell.

[LostDoggy]

Injuries rubbish - we showed it in the second half that our team was better than theirs.

Training regime rubbish - if we were tired we wouldn't be able to destroy the opposition by 10 goals in the second half, we would be even flatter.

No bloody excuses dogs, we need to beat first Brisbane and then at least one of Cats n Pies to make the 4; and we do want to make the four, play the saints if we have to, beat them and have a rest.

No more culture of mediocrity.

[westdog54]

I've had the argument a couple of times over the past few weeks about whether we're better off finishing 4th and getting StKilda in the first week of the finals, that way we don't have to play a prelim against them.

My counter argument has been that we have to beat them at some stage, whether its week 1, 3 and/or 4.

I hope the anger that the Pie Man alluded to can be channeled into the next month and a half of football. They should be angry and they should be firing against Brisbane this Saturday.