Belated Match Preview: Round 22 - Bulldogs versus Magpies

[Rocket Science]

Apologies for the tardiness of this, and particularly to Mantis who was originally promised the damn thing two days ago.

Dissect at your leisure.

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2009 AFL SEASON
ROUND 22 - MATCH PREVIEW

WESTERN BULLDOGS (4th) versus COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES (3rd)
Docklands, Sunday August 30th, 4:40pm

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WHEN THEY LAST MET:

Round 15, 2009 Home and Away Season
Docklands, July 10th

Magpies: 17.9.111
Bulldogs: 16.14.110

The slow-starting Dogs conceded 11 first-half goals to six, with more damage done in the 3rd as the deficit blew out to 37 points at its worst on the back of a sizzling 3-goal cameo from Leon Davis. However, the Dogs conjured some late resolve, setting up a barnstorming 6-goal-to-1 final term but ultimately falling by the narrowest of margins.

Rebounding defender Ryan Hargrave (35 touches), Adam Cooney (31) and Matt Boyd (30) were heavily involved for the Dogs who found avenues to goal through Shaun Higgins, Mitch Hahn (3 goals each) and pairs from Jason Akermanis, Lindsay Gilbee and hard-nut rookie Liam Picken.

Collingwood's best included Dane Swan (34 touches), Alan Didak (33) and defender Nick Maxwell (24), while Leon Davis booted four goals for the victors.

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RECENT FORMLINE: PREVIOUS FIVE OUTINGS

BULLDOGS
WIN vs Cats (14 points - Round 21)
WIN vs Lions (18 points - Round 20)
LOSS vs Eagles (5 points - Round 19)
WIN vs Dockers (31 pts - Round 18)
LOSS vs Saints (41 pts - Round 17)

MAGPIES
WIN vs Swans (39 points - Round 21)
WIN vs Tigers (93 points - Round 20)
WIN vs Crows (21 points - Round 19)
WIN vs Lions (40 pts - Round 18)
WIN vs Blues (54 pts - Round 17)


THEIR LAST OUTING: BULLDOGS

2009 Home and Away Season - Round 21
Docklands, Friday 21st August

Bulldogs: 16.14.110
Cats: 14.12.96

Recap: Gaining the strong start they were seeking, and on the back of improved teamwide defensive pressure and generally crisp use of the football, the Dogs added to powerhouse Cats' recent woes, staving off a heady Geelong challenge in the 3rd quarter to run out eventual 14 point victors.

Reigning Brownlow holder Adam Cooney underlined his recent form resurgence with a team-high 29 touches and two goals, while Matt Boyd (25 touches, 2 goals) and small-forward converted small-defender Jarrod Harbrow (25 touches) were likewise prominent, while Josh Hill snapped 3 majors and forward sidekick Brad Johnson enjoyed arguably his best game of the season.

THEIR LAST OUTING: MAGPIES

2009 Home and Away Season - Round 21
MCG, Sunday 23rd August

Magpies: 13.9.97
Swans: 8.8.56

Recap: The Pies emerged from a predictably tight first half versus a Swans outfit still harbouring feint finals ambitions, to eventually break the shackles after the main break, slamming on eight second half goals to the Swans' four, despite the best efforts of Sydney's hard-nosed taggers, to record a healthy if not entirely sparkling 6 goal win.

First-year player Dane Beams was busiest for the winners accruing 24 meaningful touches, alongside namesake teammate Dane Swan (22 touches), while spearhead Jack Anthony booted four majors, giving the Magpie forward 10 goals in his last 3 outings.

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SELECTION TABLE: BULLDOGS

Impressive wins over undisputed if ailing premiership contenders tend not to precipitate much in the way of change at the selection table...unless of course you've likes of Daniel Cross and Ryan Griffen waiting in the wings.

From most accounts including the coach himself, midfield grunt Cross appears set to resume duties after minor ankle surgery just a fortnight ago, while the hard-running Griffen may also reappear after two-weeks on the sidelines courtesy of hamstring troubles, although another week of 'rest' can't be entirely ruled out for the latter in the name of prudent asset management cum-September.

The remaining injury-enforced absence of note is fragile defender Tom Williams, whose immediate on-field fate appears less certain, with estimates concerning his return ranging from 1-2 weeks, to well beyond. Selection smokey's aside, it's safe to assume Williams won't be available versus the Pies.

Barring unforseen/undisclosed injuries to members of last week's 22, there's nobody of note playing for Williamstown with a genuine chance of a senior promotion this week.

Despite acquitting themselves well against the Cats, gritty pair Dylan Addison and Sam Reid appear most likely to make way for established duo Cross and Griffen, although should Griffen be stowed away for another week a decision must be made as to which one survives. The smart money's on Reid, whose tackling, application and decision-making were a feature of sorts versus Geelong, and the Dogs wouldn't be displeased with an encore performance versus the Pies.

Scott Welsh perhaps remains the only other outside chance at missing this week's cut, but his versatility and experience render that unlikely.

SELECTION TABLE: MAGPIES

The Magpies aren't just enjoying good form at the moment, but also an almost fully healthy list to choose from.

As with the Dogs, consecutive recent wins don't engender wholesale selection changes, unless 'resting' players in the lead-up to a finals campaign enters the coach's thinking.

Hypothetically, if spots become available those with legitimate claims include rookie mid Steele Sidebottom who's displayed exceptional VFL form but faces stiff competition for a senior role, medium-sized swingman Tyson Goldsack whose run may be valued against the Dogs, speedster Marty Clarke (likewise) who hasn't played a senior game since round 12, and tall defender Nathan Brown, whose abilities may be considered superfluous against a side with few tall forwards.

The intriguing roughy here is ageing key forward Anthony Rocca, who's managed just three games this season, but who's been the subject of calls by some to be given another look-see pre-finals, in-spite of his club surviving just fine without him to this point. Feeding this unlikely event, are rumours of a recent calf strain to Collingwood full-forward Jack Anthony, which if founded, may require he's rested, and who better to slot into the goalsquare than Rocca, despite his obvious limitations, particularly if the Pies are wondering whether he has anything to contribute in September.

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DID YOU KNOW?

- Bulldog cult-figure and occasional ruckman Ben Hudson will line up for his 100th AFL game versus Collingwood, his 45th outing for the Bulldogs after 55 with the Crows. Meanwhile, Matt Boyd will play his 100th consecutive match for the Bulldogs

- During the final term of their round 15 clash the Dogs held Collingwood to 1.2.8, their smallest tally in a 2nd-half quarter this season.

- The Pies' one-point round 15 margin during the last encounter between these two team was simultaneously their 4th one point win over the Dogs, and their 100th victory over the Dogs by any margin.

- The Bulldogs and Magpies have opposed eachother on 142 occasions, with the Pies holding a healthy 100-to-41 advantage, in addition to a single drawn game.

- The clubs have contested a total of ten clashes at the Docklands stadium, with the Pies enjoying a 4-6 advantage, meanwhile the Dogs' 2009 record at the same venue is a sobering 6 wins and 6 losses.

- The Dogs' previous seven games at Docklands has produced a result sequence of W-L-W-L-W-L-W.

- Dogs coach Rodney Eade has faced off against Mick Malthouse on 18 occasions, and enjoys an 11-to-7 head-to-head advantage over his Magpie rival, including a 5-to-2 advantage while coaching the red, white and blue.

- Since 2000, when the current finals system began, every Premier has been either 4-0 or 3-1 in the four rounds prior to the finals. This season, only two of the current top four satisfy that criterion, Collingwood and the Bulldogs.

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WHERE THEY'RE AT:

BULLDOGS:

Just as the shock round 19 loss to the visiting Eagles had pundits beginning to set their watches to the Dogs' annual late-season fadeout, and with key performers Cross, Griffen and Williams sidelined at the dawn of what all and sundry deemed an arduous three-week stretch in the lead-up to September, something odd happened: The Dogs ignored the doomsayers and began winning again.

Dare the Dogs do the unthinkable, and hit September at the height of their powers instead of using it as a platform to arrest a slump while hoping for the best?

An away victory against top-eight outfit Brisbane, and an especially encouraging follow-up win versus league juggernauts Geelong have the Dogs playing a brand of smart, hard-nosed football that resembles the sort of model not uncommonly found in the heat of finals action, although that optimism could quickly be extinguished should the side be exposed badly against the Pies.

However the signs remain good to this point. Adam Cooney's sense of timing seems impeccable as he seems to be approaching his best form of the season. Recent returnees Bob Murphy, Shaun Higgins, and Dan Giansiracusa, all integral to the Dogs' forward fortunes appear to be reaping dividends for their recent runs. Youngsters Ward and Harbrow are gradually blossoming as regular contributors in key roles. While veterans Akermanis and Johnson are showing they're still well and truly capable of critical contributions.

Most importantly however, everyone's again buying in to the fact that there's a job to do when they don't have the ball, and it's as important, if not moreso, than what they do with it, if only for the tone and example it sets for all other areas of the game.

MAGPIES:

Despise them as you may, but there's no sidestepping the fact that in terms of pure results Collingwood has been the yardstick of the competition in the 2nd half of the season, holding an impressive 12-and-1 record since round 9, and maintaining their trajectory while previously fancied faves Geelong and St.Kilda begin to look human again with September suddenly on their doorstep.

Despite some obviously talented individuals, the Pies boast few genuine single-handed match-winners, but are profiting from consistent, teamwide contributions, week after week, producing few fluctuations in overall form, and results to match.

There's no secret weapon, no irresistable force and no immovable object. In their place is an enviable work ethic, and adaptable game plan, few weak links and a demonstrated will to succeed, perhaps exemplified by their oft maligned skipper.

Oddly enough, it's also a quality the Bulldogs coach has preached his side needs to exhibit to be at its best.

What will prove interesting is how a team that's conceded a miserly average of just 55 points through it's last six clashes, will fare against an opponent who boasts the league's best performed attack. It's further worth noting that despite their one point loss in round 15, the Dogs were only the fourth Magpie opponent this year to crack the 100-point mark, the others being St.Kilda, Geelong and a pumped-up Carlton during rivalry round.

[aker39]

It was worth the wait

[Rocket Science]

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DUCKS AND DRAKES:

The pending ruck duel provides one point of interest: Having recently regained mobile ruckman Josh Fraser after a 5-game layoff, along with ex-Lion Cam Wood, the Pies boast a mobile duo with deft tap abilities, and with Fraser in particular able to both gather touches (he's averaged 19 a game in 2009) around the ground in an old-school 'followers' role, along with the ability to drift forward.

They're the antitheses of the Dogs bare-knuckled ruck duo of Hudson/Minson, who might be encouraged to use their bulk and appetite for body contact, to work over the lightly-framed Magpie pair, but do so smartly. The more Wood and Fraser hurt, the less inclined they'll be to run.

With Fraser back in the team, Kangaroo cast-off Leigh Brown can be released from relief ruck duties and has the ability to go both back and forward with moderate success. Should he retain his spot, expect more of the latter if Malthouse looks to stretch the Dogs backs in the absence of Williams, to keep Lake accountable as a decoy, or simply to bang bodies and create crumbing opportunties for the Magpies' slick small forward brigade.

If Brown, Cloke, Anthony and Fraser find themselves forward in unison, at least one Bulldog backman will be 'punching above his weight'. That man's often Lindsay Gilbee, who can alternately slice up the opposition going the other way should Collingwood's forward-50 entries be hap-hazard and pressured, and in that instance our midfield suddenly becomes Lindsay's best friend. Clearly, our midfield pressure when not in possession, used to good effect versus the best midfield in the biz in Geelong, must be maintained this week as a pre-cursor to what's expected in September. We're evidently capable of it, but are we capable of it consistently?

Jarrod Harbrow's been nothing short of a revelation since being converted from small forward to small defender, providing sizzling run and carry and a willingness to get his nose dirty in ground level contests despite his small stature. That said, his ability to defend will be sternly tested against one of the most accomplished small-to-medium forward corps in the league.

Sydney learned last week that while you can stifle some of Collingwood's most prolific midfielders, you can't stifle them all, and they're an outfit that knows a thing or two about negating opposition mids. It barely needs repeating that leather-magnet Dane Swan must be marked and cannot be permitted to accrue touches at will. Sam Reid acquitted himself well against Geelong's Jimmy Bartel while contributing 7 tackles, and if retained in the side the veteran of four AFL games could be asked to do likewise versus Swan...provided Liam Picken doesn't get the gig ahead of him.

Pendlebury's another supremely talented mid who can't be permitted to roam free, while Shane O'Bree's been a quietly consistent clearance-winner for the Pies in 2009. Furthermore, Davis, Didak and Thomas give Collingwood the ability to inject flair and unpredictability through the middle, and although none are likely to spend the bulk of their time on the ball, all can hurt you in a short span of time if allowed to play their game unencumbered.

Though a poor facsimile of Brian Lake, Nick Maxwell performs a comparable role down back for Collingwood, and will chop off any ill-considered forays forward, and won't be shy about taking the body in the process. Therefore, whether rapid-fire or patient as the situation dictates, we must be judicious with our ball-use entering forward 50, lest we spoonfeed the likes of Davis, O'Brien, Lockyer and damaging ball-carrier Heath Shaw, who ranks 2nd only to Sydney-based brother Rhyce for running bounces in the AFL.

Likewise, under no circumstance can we succumb to the trap of long bombs to a goal-square-bound Minson, who'll be a sitting duck for Prestigiacomo's superior spoiling, and in-turn Heath Shaw's rebound. Our small forwards must continue to be diligent about locking the ball into our forward-50, but we can't afford to have them chasing tail all night thanks to indiscriminate attacks.

Much has been made of our propensity to kick over the heads of our small-to-medium forward targets versus the Cats, giving Johnson, Hill, Akermanis and Co. the opportunity to outposition direct opponents caught in front and win footraces while running towards goal. This method requires space, and to create space we'll likely need decoys to drag Collingwood defenders outside of the arc. I'm looking at you Scott Welsh, who was able to perform this role versus Scarlett, and to a lesser extent Bob Murphy who'll ideally lead his opponent a merry dance upfield.

In this event, if Minson's in the vicinity, I'd ask he stays rooted to the goal line.

Whoever's finishing chances, we need to convert with efficiency, particularly if Collingwood are able to strangle our forward-50 entries as they did to the Swans, who were afforded just 13 second-half forward entries last round.

That also means one more thing: No more bloody posters.

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THE VERDICT:

This looms as a game with genuine finals outcomes on the line. Should the Dogs manage to win by 22 pts or more, they'll bump the Pies out of 3rd place and earn a qualifying final versus a creaky Geelong outfit with a 5 or 6 day break. However should the Dogs lose this week, they'll retain 4th and alternately book themselves a date with the top-spot Saints, who've had recent hiccups of their own, on the back of a 7-day break.

In the face of conjecture over which fate's more preferable, I'd suggest neither's preferable to the other. There's no 'easy/easier' option and any team looking for such outcomes in September either shouldn't (or shortly won't) be there.

Finals football is rightly about earning the opportunity to test yourself against the best, and attempting to prevail. There's deservedly nowhere to hide, and there's certainly nowhere to hide against either Geelong or St.Kilda, whatever the extent of their recent malaise.

Curiously, despite it being 3rd v 4th, with both sides in good nick, and their most recent encounter decided by a solitary point, and with a change in ladder position on offer, and valuable finals momentum to consider, the game is conceivably a 'dead rubber' of sorts.

If you accept the line of thinking that a win in this instance derives fewer tangible rewards than a loss, bar momentum and/or pride, will either side be tempted to 'rest' blokes, saving their best for when there are bigger September fish to fry?

I'm guessing no.

I'm also guessing the Dogs have found enough steel, have learnt from enough prior experience, have deduced what they're capable of with all hands at the wheel, and ultimately have enough reason to prevail, to run out 8 point winners, and hopefully get through unscathed in readiment for a date with the Aints.

[Rocket Science]

It was worth the wait

Struth, that was quick...and maybe premature, you haven't read the thing yet :)

[aker39]

Struth, that was quick...and maybe premature, you haven't read the thing yet :)

The 2nd half was even better:p

[LostDoggy]

Great preview Rocket Science - you really nailed just what we need to do! Thanks for such an informative read ;) Let's hope we come out on top in a tight and close encounter.

[Sedat]

I'm also guessing the Dogs have found enough steel, have learnt from enough prior experience, have deduced what they're capable of with all hands at the wheel, and ultimately have enough reason to prevail, to run out 8 point winners, and hopefully get through unscathed in readiment for another date with the Cats.
Awesome preview Rocket Science.

Apologies for sounding like a smarty-pants, but if we beat the Pies by 8 points we will be playing the Saints in week 1 of the finals. Unless the return match with the Cats you're alluding to is actually the Grand Final ;)

[Rocket Science]

Awesome preview Rocket Science.

Apologies for sounding like a smarty-pants, but if we beat the Pies by 8 points we will be playing the Saints in week 1 of the finals. Unless the return match with the Cats you're alluding to is actually the Grand Final ;)

Bloody smarty pants.

Cheers, just picked that up myself...duly corrected.

[bulldogtragic]

DID YOU KNOW?

- Bulldog cult-figure and occasional ruckman Ben Hudson will line up for his 100th AFL game versus Collingwood


That would be a lot of games against one opponent, are you sure about this RS? :)

Amazing stuff.

[Mantis]

As others have mentioned that was an extremely good preview. As I stated last week we are very lucky to have such 'top notch' previews on our site to read & discuss.

We have tended to struggle against small to mid forwardlines this year so it will be interesting to see how we fair this time around. For me 'Neon Leon' looms as the player we don't have a great match-up for so I will be interested to see what strategy we put in place to qwell his influence. I would think both teams will try and keep a few aces up their sleeves so it will be interesting to watch how the tactics unfold.

As has been reported this game will give us another great warm-up for the finals which should have us cherry ripe for the QF. Let's hope we get through the game with no injuries and have another confidence boosting hit-out.

I ain't all that fussed if we win or lose at present, but come the 20min mark of the last qtr and we are in hunt I will probably be screaming my lungs out... We owe the filth one!!

[LostDoggy]

Bulldogs by 24 points to take 3rd spot!!! :D

[The Pie Man]

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That also means one more thing: No more bloody posters.


Indeed, or I'll possibly be seen 'doing hippo-like pirouettes as another opportunity is squandered.'

Top preview, I always enjoy RS' eloquent posts...almost as much as his changing avatar (still giggling at the latest update actually - will GOL (giggling out loud) ever catch on you think?)

Lame jokes from me aside, I remember one moment from the 3rd quarter of the last clash with the Pies where Johnson missed a pretty easy set shot, and the Pies proceeded to run it down the other end and rub our nose in it. I figured at the time that was that night's nail in the coffin, until I saw the ball run through Hahn's legs.

I was rapt Johno stood up in the last quarter last week in the last quarter, particularly the first goal of the last quarter (class finish, after looking every bit like he didn't want to take it)

In short, we must take our opportunities - and speaking of Hahn, get him involved early - much like the Bulls used to do with Bill Cartwright/Luc Longley - purely anecdotal, but when I see him have a good early touch, he generally tends to carry through some contribution for the night, and we rarely lose when he's up. I'm over his inconsistency, but like the team he's had a good fortnight.

[bornadog]

RS, what a great read and boy have you put some time into it

Certainly going to be a great game this one, I can't wait to see how it pans out. We really need to stop their mids feeding the forwards. I think we would have learnt alot from the last time we played them and allowed them to get such a big lead, it won't happen again.

[LostDoggy]

Great write up:)

I keep fluctuating on this one, and the footy tipping leaders don't have a clue who to pick either.

We were totally outcoached last time, but Rocket should not show all his tricks in this one 'dead rubber'. We should beat the pies because we have such a good record against them, and because it was so close last time.

[Dry Rot]

Great preview. IMO this will be a much bigger test than last week.

[boydogs]

Bloody hell RS. What did they have for breakfast? :D
Fantastic work, you have said it all
I think we will continue our great form and rise above Collingwood who are even and consistent but only workmanlike and not quite premiership material. Their spine Anthony, Cloke, Fraser, Maxwell and Presti doesn't strike fear for mine

[Scraggers]

Great preview RS ... whether we win by one point (and play St. KIlda) or thirty points (and play Geelong) the important thing is we win ... confidence is a huge thing going into finals, and to finish the home and away seson with those three wins would give us great impetus as we move into the business end

[Mofra]

Brilliant review RS, not happy about the W/L sequence at the Dome but we really should be aiming for a 4 goal victory in this one.

[Cyberdoggie]

Top write up,

Alas i don't think the result will be as big as your review.

[w3design]

Super review. Good analysis of both teams.

I'd like think that we're a good chance to win this one. I reckon it will be a pretty tight contest for all of the reasons listed in the review. We'll have to play very well to take 3rd position, Collingwood's form line is pretty impressive.

If we start like we did last week it will go a long way to getting us the right result.

[Go_Dogs]

Nice work RS - quality read.

[firstdogonthemoon]

You have a gift. This is lovely.

As for the game, I am frightened.

[Raw Toast]

Great preview RS.

I wouldn't go too defensive in the midfield but we agree that we do need to do something about Swan. I'd be tempted to put Cross on him (if his running power is not under question) - not as a super-hard tag, but for Cross to nullify Swan first and then work off him. Swan gets a lot of handball receives and short kicks to him, and hopefully Cross could really limit this.

Didak cheats alot and burnt us severely with this a number of times last game. He has to be manned up when he slips out to the half-back flank or wing when the ball is in our fifty. I'm sure we'll have a plan for this, and it doesn't have to be his direct opponent, but he's just too dangerous to leave alone.

The other thing the Pies did last time was change their style of attack against us. Normally they use the wings, but against us they cut the ball in much more by hand and smashed through our zone. Fraser was important in this, and he's a big inclusion for them. It'll be interesting to see how much they try to do this again, and how much we reveal of our strategies against it.