Match Preview - Qualifying Final - Western Bulldogs vs Geelong

[Mantis]

(Sedat has helped out with the first section of the preview... Mighty fine job too)

Match Preview – Qualifying Final
Geelong v Western Bulldogs
Saturday 2:30pm, MCG

Last time they met:
Round 21, 2009, Docklands
Western Bulldogs 16.14:110 def. Geelong 14.12:96

After making a habit of starting sluggishly in many matches throughout 2009, the Bulldogs
jumped out of the blocks in the first half and would have been much further than 3 goals in front at half time had they not squandered so many gilt-edged opportunities to score (including 4 posters). When the inevitable Geelong comeback resulted in them taking the lead just before ¾ time, the Bulldogs were able to take stock, reload and come away witha crucially important victory, one that has given the team enormous self-belief that they can match the best teams in the competition. The match was notable for the fanatical defensive pressure that the Bulldogs were able to exert on Geelong’s ball carriers which denied them the space and time to execute their trademark quick delivery by hand through the corridor. This was achieved despite Geelong’s major advantage in clearances from stoppages on the night.

Form Guide:
Geelong – 2nd (18 wins – 4 losses): 127.4%
It would be remiss of me not to make mention of Geelong’s outstanding achievement in becoming the first team in VFL/AFL history to win 18 or more matches in 3 consecutive seasons, which is testament to their consistent brilliance over such a long period of time. But the reality of the last third of their H&A season form is that it has been very patchy, with 4 losses (all against fellow finals contenders) in amongst 3 tight wins by less than a kick and a couple of comfortable wins against also-rans. The reasons for this form slump have primarily been personnel driven, with injuries to key players preventing the Cats from enjoying a continuity of personnel in most areas of the ground, but especially in the defensive 50.

Western Bulldogs – 3rd (15 wins – 7 losses): 122.6%

After a slow start to the season, the Bulldogs embarked on a mid-season run of 8 wins in 9 matches to kick-start their 2009 campaign. They then lost 3 of the next 5 matches to put their double-chance in peril. However the last 3 matches of the season have seen the Bulldogs return the best form of their season so far, with defensive intensity dramatically increased, to dispose of 3 quality opponents in the lead-in to the finals. The final ladder position of 3rd was ultimately achieved in the last minute of the Round 22 clash against Collingwood, with a Brad Johnson goal resulting in the Bulldogs jumping to 3rd and the Pies slipping to 4th.

The Team Stats:

Geelong:

Ranked 4th in Kicks Per Game

Ranked 1st in Handballs Per Game

Ranked 1st in Disposals Per Game

Ranked 3rd in Marks Per Game

Ranked 2nd in Points Per Game

Ranked 2nd in least Opponent Kicks Per Game

Ranked 3rd in least Opponent Handballs Per Game

Ranked 2nd in least Opponent Disposals Per Game

Ranked 4th in least Opponent Marks Per Game

Ranked 4th in least Opponent Points Per Game

Ranked 2nd in Team to Opponent Kicks Per Game Diff.

Ranked 1st in Team to Opponent Handballs Per Game Diff.

Ranked 1st in Team to Opponent Disposals Per Game Diff.

Ranked 2nd in Team to Opponent Marks Per Game Diff.

Ranked 2nd in Team to Opponent Points Per Game Diff

Ranked 12th in least Opponent Tackles Per Game

One of the cornerstones to Geelong’s period of sustained brilliance has been a settled core defensive unit that has been able to repel opposition attacking thrusts with relative ease, and who then transition defence into attack with great speed and precision down the corridor (ably assisted by their brilliant midfield). With the loss of key defensive personnel, midfielders of the calibre of Corey and Bartel have more frequently been used away from the midfield coal face and have been used to patch up structural holes, which has had a double-whammy effect of reducing the midfield dominance, allowing more cleaner delivery into defensive 50 and resulting in the Cats conceding more scores to opposition than any other club in the competition since Round 14.

Western Bulldogs:

Ranked 3rd in Kicks Per Game

Ranked 3rd in Handballs Per Game

Ranked 2nd in Disposals Per Game

Ranked 2nd in Marks Per Game

Ranked 1st in Points Per Game

Ranked 2nd in least Opponent Hitouts Per Game

Ranked 4th in Team to Opponent Kicks Per Game Diff.

Ranked 5th in Team to Opponent Disposals Per Game Diff.

Ranked 4th in Team to Opponent Marks Per Game Diff.

Ranked 3rd in Team to Opponent Points Per Game Diff.

Ranked 4th in Team to Opponent Hitouts Per Game Diff

Ranked 3rd in Kicks Per Game

Ranked 14th in least Opponent Handballs Per Game

Ranked 13th in least Opponent Disposals Per Game

Ranked 13th in least Opponent Marks Per Game

No surprise that the Bulldogs are at their best when their defensive work is at an optimum level across the entire 22, as evidenced by the last 3 weeks (especially Rounds 20 and 21). Winning the contested ball will be even more important against a quality opponent who relies on winning this area to feed an abundance of opportunities to their forwards to kick a winning score. Despite losing clearly in the clearances, our ability to match and exceed Geelong’s contested ball output two weeks ago was a major factor in winning the match.

The Selection Table

Geelong:
Varcoe is a likely inclusion this week, with Chapman also in the frame for a return from injury. Whether or not Chapman is given an additional week’s rest to fully overcome his “hamstring awareness” (whatever that means) remains to be seen, but it is an undeniable risk to play him this week. The Cats seem to have settled on Ottens and Blake to share the ruck duties, with the unlucky Mumford losing his place in the team following the Round 21 loss to the Dogs. Rooke is under an injury cloud with a slight quad but is expected to take his place in the team. I expect to see Varcoe in, possibly at the expense of either Gamble or Hogan (Hogan would be unlucky from a form perspective and Gamble from a match-up perspective). Stokes might also be in line for a spell in the VFL if they want to go like-for-like, as Byrnes has been a better contributor and the Cats really rate Varcoe’s defensive intensity up forward. S Johnson is highly unlikely to be rushed back following his hip surgery last week.

Western Bulldogs:
Selection dilemmas abound for the Dogs, with Hudson and Griffen walk-up starts to come back into the line-up assuming they are fully fit to resume. That leaves a couple of unlucky omissions, likely to be out of Everitt, Reid and Picken – Reid has some groin soreness, which could make the selection changes slightly easier if he doesn’t come up. Tim Callan will come into calculations from a match-up perspective, as a potential cover for Geelong’s fleet of rotating small forwards (if Chapman and Varcoe both come in, this threat only increases). I think it will end up being Hudson and Griffen in for Reid and Everitt.

Key Match-ups

Hawkins v Lake
Hawkins managed to kick 3 goals from limited opportunities against Lake a fortnight ago, but Lake provided terrific rebound drive and was a key contributor to our victory. Will be interesting to see how Geelong deploy Hawkins and use him to try and drag Lake out of the action (much like Welsh tries to do with Scarlett). It’s very important that Lake sets up camp about 30 metres in front of goal and does not stray away from this hot spot, and rely on the communication of our other defenders to ensure that Hawkins is kept in check if he roams far and wide to provide an option for the Cats.

Mooney v Morris
Mooney had a fine game on Morris a couple of weeks ago, working well in tandem with Hawkins and Mumford in the 3rd qtr to really stretch the Dogs defensively. Morris stuck to the task but was shaded on the night, conceding 4 goals to the big hairy cat. With the more dangerous Ottens having since replaced Mumford, expect to see him drift forward even more often to try and stretch our defensive resources.

Ling v Cooney
Ling has matched up very well on Cooney in the past couple of years, but Cooney was able to run off Ling in Round 21 and was a major influence on the contest, both offensively and, importantly, working just as hard defensively to assist the back 6. This will be a pivotal match-up to determine the winner of the all-important midfield battle.

Ottens/Blake v Hudson/Minson
Blake was surprisingly effective with his tap work in Round 21, and was the catalyst for a number of centre clearances for the Cats throughout the evening. However, he contributed very little around the ground. Minson and Hudson are one of the more effective ruck combinations in the AFL this season, who work very hard to assist the midfield in winning the clearance (or preventing an opposition clearance) once the initial ruck contest has taken place. These 2nd and 3rd efforts have been instrumental in making the Bulldogs a far harder team to break down in the contested situation.

Selwood/Ablett v Ward/Picken
The battle of the no.14’s has been a very enjoyable spectacle to witness in 2009 to date. The 3rd installment should be no exception. Selwood was a major catalyst for Geelong’s 3rd qtr revival in Round 21, but Ward managed to run the game out stronger and was a major influence in the final qtr (as he was in the final qtr in the Round 9 classic). I expect Picken to take Ablett for extended periods, and I expect Thompson to move Ablett forward to try and take Picken out of his comfort zone. As the season has progressed, Picken has been increasingly comfortable taking a role down back when needed.

Corey v Boyd
A real head-to-head battle. Both players are great at finding space, are quick with their hands and work extremely hard in both directions to help out defensively when needed.

Bartel v Cross
Sam Reid did a terrific job curtailing Bartel's influence in Round 21, so I would match Cross up on Bartel to perform a similar role. His fanatical fitness, ability to get to contest after contest, and strength of mind make him a ideal candidate to try and limit Bartel's influence at the stoppages.

Mackie/Enright v Higgins/Aker
Mackie and Enright are the Mr Fix-its in Geelong’s defensive 50, with Mackie having overtaken Milburn as their designated quarterback. Higgins and Aker are smart footballers and require quality opponent. Should these match-ups take place, Hill and Gia become even more important players as they will command Geelong’s 5th and 6th defenders, an area we managed to exploit in Round 21.

Murphy/Hahn v Harley/Milburn
Murphy was a major influence early in the contest in Round 21, and has found touch and form at exactly the right time of the season. Harley or Milburn will have their work cut out for them quelling Murphy’s constant run to present – the other will more than likely take Hahn.

Stokes/Varcoe v Harbrow
Harbrow has been in magnificent form, providing both attacking drive and defensive strength (he hasn’t conceded a goal on his direct opponent since the St Kilda game in Round 17). The more I think about it, the more I think the Cats will use Varcoe on him to try and quell his creative play off half back, with Stokes and Byrnes used more as traditional half forward opportunists.

Taylor v Johnson
BJ has hit a purple patch of form the last 3 weeks and was too good for Taylor 2 weeks ago. I expect to see this match up again on Saturday, with Scarlett in reserve as a plan B in case Johnson runs riot.

[Mantis]

(The Bulldog's Bite has gladly helped out with some great discussion on game day strategies for both teams)

Game day strategy

After having played one another in a tight affair only two weeks ago, it’s going to be very interesting how the strategies on game day pan out. Both Thompson and Eade would be very familiar with the opposing sides strengths and weaknesses by now. We’ve had two arm wrestles this year standing one apiece, and of course the Preliminary Final of last year. Don’t be surprised if Thompson/Eade roll the dice at some stage during the match by trying something out of the ordinary to win the game.

Geelong – How they can win:

Preparing and learning from Round 21 is at the forefront of discussion. For about 80% of the match, the Dogs were able to spot up targets inside the F50 by kicking over the heads of the opposition. Hill really troubled them in this area and was on the end of two beautiful 55m passes from Hahn. The Geelong defence has been renowned for playing a length or two off their man in order to cover for each other but in the Round 21 clash it cost them the game. Harbrow was a key figure in carrying the football and delivering to the likes of Johnson and Murphy who pushed back hard into space.

Mackie and Gillies were two of Geelong’s biggest offenders and I suspect that as a unit they’ll be closely monitoring this. How will they counter it? It’s an interesting one. They won’t want to shy away from the style that has seen them been a dominant side for the past 3 seasons but they’re going to have to be mindful of where they stand when the ball is coming in. I would expect they would adjust their set-up slightly so that one or two of their defenders guard the space ‘behind the pack’. I’m assuming they’ll have Scarlett standing behind Minson/Welsh for the spoil as he’s very good at fisting the ball away. Watch for Scarlett to then run hard down the middle of the ground once this happens and the ball is retrieved by Geelong. At different stages throughout the game I would presume that their spare man in defence will plug the hole deep too. Either way – we won’t be getting the luxury of kicking over their heads as much as last time.

Geelong may try and use the wide open spaces of the MCG a little more than we’ve seen in the past too. They love the corridor but they’ve been shut down a few times because of it in the second half of this season. I think we may see more of a spread in this game, aiming for their forwards to go one out with each of their Bulldog defenders. The likes of Lake and Gilbee push hard to cover for others and against Geelong it can be easy to do because they use the corridor so much. They should chop and change this up a little. Spreading from the corridor wouldn’t be such a bad strategy for them.

Hawkins and Mooney need to fire. It’s a simple equation; if these two don’t trouble the Dogs, they won’t win. They’re two big bodied players that can bring their smaller players into the contest. Mooney won the honours last time v Morris and I think they’ll be trying to isolate this match-up whenever possible. The key for Mooney and Hawkins is to be on the move. If they stand still, Lake in particular will humiliate them. Mooney works pretty hard and often plays a similar role to Riewoldt but Hawkins has gotta get on the bike and continually present. Lake will always give his direct opponent a decent chance at snagging a few goals but they’ll only come if Hawkins is prepared to lead all day long. If Hawkins attracts Lake’s attention, it takes far less pressure off the rest of their forwards. They’ll be told to go through Big Tom whenever he’s in front on the lead with the mindset of limiting Lake’s ability to help out his other defenders.

Byrnes and Stokes need to contribute more than what they did last time. Byrnes was reasonable but Stokes was very ordinary. Their second tier players in Byrnes, Stokes, Mooney and Hawkins really are the ultimate key and it’s no surprise they’re all forwards. Their midfield is arguably the best in the competition so they’re always going to get enough supply but without Johnson and Chapman probably missing another week, the two smalls have to produce goals. Both have shown they’re capable including Stokes taking Harbrow apart earlier in the year, but they’ve been too inconsistent. A lot rides on how much these two can contribute to the scoreboard.

A dark horse in this match is certainly Ottens. How much can he contribute? He was solid against Fremantle but players tend to do well in their first outing back from injury. This week is a huge test for Ottens both mentally and physically. He very well could be the deciding factor because in the Preliminary Final last year he smashed us. Blake hammered us in the ruck a few weeks ago too – so this is an area (including their brilliant midfield) where they can expose The Dogs. Ottens is capable of going forward and causing us trouble too. Last time they tried to expose our lack of height but Mumford simply isn’t enough to do that. Ottens is a far better player though and with Williams out, watch for The Cats to really try and get Ottens in the game both in the ruck and particularly up forward. This has to be their best chance of knocking The Dogs off. Using their ruck division and midfield brilliance to slaughter us around the stoppages and expose our lack of height/strength up forward.

Lastly – stop Harbrow. His run killed them last time and put Collingwood to the sword on Sunday night. He’s in blistering form and makes The Dogs irresistible at times. His hard running and weaving from the defensive 50 right through the midfield has been enormous this year for The Dogs. Geelong will be awake to it and will be hoping to exploit Jarrod’s lack of height and strength in the air. Stokes had his number the first time we played this year but it must be said – Harbrow has improved dramatically in this area. It’s still his only weakness at this stage because they won’t catch him when he runs.

Western Bulldogs – How we can win:

Confidence, belief and trust are three of the most important words about this football club. Right now – we’ve got plenty of it. We should be biting at the bit to play on Saturday arvo against a side we’ve beaten only two weeks ago. Up until three weeks ago, for the past 12 months we’ve been saying how we think we can match it with the best. The last three weeks have confirmed we can and have beaten the best. It’s very much a mental thing for The Dogs this week as it is physical. In the past we’ve probably faltered too many times in this kind of situation. I’d be drilling into the players that it’s not just going to happen, but that we should have 110% trust in the player standing beside them that they’re going to do their job. Confidence in football is huge. If we get another good jump on the Cats and keep applying that fierce tackling and pressure, Geelong will stumble. This is very much our form and game to lose, not theirs to win.

Relentless pressure is the biggest key for the Dogs. Write it on all their lockers, the boards, their hands and the football itself. We’ve completely turned the tables around in the last three weeks because of the pressure that we’ve applied to the opposition. We’ve been able to out number sides in the contests and apply subtle bumps and blocks to release the likes of Cooney and Harbrow. When we play our best football it’s because we hunt in packs and play aggressive, pressuring football. If it’s not on, we’ll be smashed. It all begins in the midfield and hopefully with Cross/Higgins getting another game under their belt, this will help us in this area. Griffen coming back into the line-up is a huge plus, too. Griff’s defensive game is very good and after getting well beaten in the stoppages last time, he’ll be welcomed back with open arms.

Stoppages and clearances are pivotal in Finals. We know Geelong can and will do it because Ablett, Selwood, Bartel and particularly Corey love to run away from the packs. They’ve done it consistently for three years now. However – in Round 21 they smashed us in this area and still lost. I guarantee you that statistic won’t be the same this time around. Cross and Griffen coming back into the line-up will go a long way to balancing that out. Add that to Cooney, Boyd, Higgins and Ward – we’re looking far better in this department. The Dogs must be mindful of their positioning though. At times this year (v Carlton, Saints x2) we’ve been killed around this area because we’re drawn to the player with the ball and allow them to do the ‘overlap’ with one or two releasing handballs. This can’t happen and it’s imperative to always have somebody on the defensive side on the pack, blocking the path for Geelong to run into.

Exposing the Geelong defence for a lack of accountability is always a key when playing Geelong. Mackie and Milburn are the two players who will give their opponent a lot of rope to work with. The match-ups will change constantly but whoever is on them at any given time must be presenting hard and demanding the ball. The players need to be instructed to deliver the football through these two players opponents where possible. Mackie often crumbles under pressure and I have no doubt he doesn’t enjoy playing us. He plays too loose to have a suitable opponent for The Dogs but that only happens if we’re constantly moving around ala Round 21. That means running hard forward and running hard back. On the MCG there’s still going to be space behind us and so watch for the Dogs to try and employ the same tactic we did two weeks ago by driving the ball long and allowing our players to run onto it. At the same time – be responsive. If Geelong are onto the long kick over the top, don’t be afraid to keep hitting up the 20-30m passes. We have to keep their back half guessing. If we allow them to pick us off, we’ll struggle to score and we’ll look ordinary. We cannot allow their backs to get on top of us because that’s where their dominance, confidence and invincibility really begins. Keep them on their toes, apply plenty of pressure and we’ll look very sharp.

Stop Selwood. This guy has become the heart and soul of their football club. His ability to find something when his side needs it is phenomenal. His effort v the Hawks was inspirational and he got Geelong back into the game against us in Round 21. We’ve been able to curb Bartel’s influence somewhat in recent times, but we need to turn our attention to Selwood. He runs harder than any other player in their side and constantly sets up their play from around the packs. He hasn’t got the best skills in the game but he still runs and receives a lot of the ball after dishing it off initially. Another thing to be reminded of is that he ducks his head every time he’s tackled. He draws free kicks through this action all the time and all it means is that The Dogs have to be smarter. They can’t try and tackle Selwood around his chest because he drops his knees instantly and wriggles out of it. Aim for the hips/mid-section and be very physical with him.

The Summary (By Sedat)
The Bulldogs could not have been more impressive in the last 3 weeks against quality opposition, and have a fit and healthy list of personnel to choose from. They also now have quite a lot of finals experience within the group, and will know exactly what to expect come Saturday. On the downside is that they have a 6 day break to prepare for their first final (although they only had a 6 day break to prepare for the Round 21 clash against Geelong). By contrast, Geelong has undergone multiple changes to their team from week to week, have a couple of players (Ottens and Kelly) that will still be short of a gallop and possibly another player or two returning from injury for the raised intensity of finals football. Whilst they have an extra day to prepare, their personnel issues will render this only a slight advantage. The weather is going to be an interesting issue – Geelong are a strong wet weather football team, which plays into their slower but bigger bodied line-up. However, the Bulldogs have developed a strong group of contested ball winners that have shown their ability to easily adapt to less than perfect conditions. I expect the first half to be a closely fought affair, but the Bulldogs to be able to match Geelong at the contests and provide enough opportunities for our talented and smart forward line to kick a winning score against Geelong’s unsettled defensive unit. Make no mistake, Geelong threw the kitchen sink at the Bulldogs to try and make a statement in Round 21 but were unable to sustain their effort over the four quarters, and I expect the Bulldogs to be able to repel anything that the Cats throw at them this time and clear out as the match progresses.

Bulldogs by 25 points

[LostDoggy]

Where's my jumper and boots.

I'm ready

[neodog]

Excellent right up mantis. The only time this season where we are not constantly worrying about Missy Higgins sore ankle/leg etc...expect him to have a massive influence on this game.

[GVGjr]

Here are some fast facts

- Johnson has been goalless just once against the Cats in 2005 but has kicked 27 goals during this time.
- Corey finished with 39 disposals, 22 handball receives and seven clearances in the round 21 encounter.
- Boyd has had at least 22 disposals in each of his past 8 games at the MCG averaging 29 disposals per game.
- Ablett has averaged 33 disposals, 4 clearances and 6 inside 50's in his past 5 games against us.
- Cross has averaged 30 disposals a game against the Cats since 2007.

- Since 2000: The Cats have won 7 games but lost 8 against us however, at the MCG, they have won 6 but only lost 2.

[LostDoggy]

Awesome preview, I didnt think last weeks could be topped. No stone unturned, you should be working for the age.

Come on dogs, lets show our best when it counts.

[Cyberdoggie]

Great Preview guys,

Totally agree with the Ruck issues and Center clearances.
We got smash there in the 3rd quarter. Minson wasn't jumping and couldn't get his hands on the tap out, we rarely got first usage of the ball. Had me very worried for a while there, until Hudson eventually came back on.

If as predicted we are going to drop Reid for Griffen, i worry that we may lose some hardness in the middle. Reid would be ideal to play again on Bartel.

Two issues still really bother me.
*Geelong will go with at least 3 talls in Mooney, Hawkins, Ottens at times. This will either work well in our favour or bring about our doom.

*Combined with the above point, an MCG day game in the sun can be tricky. I know it seems like a very minor issue but if the sun is out in the second half, the shadow will be over half the ground and it becomes very difficult to see players and leads ahead. If we are playing small like usual this will make it more difficult, and it will favour geelong.

[Cyberdoggie]

I really must get stay away from this site for a day or two, i'm getting way too pumped up, and it's only Wednesday! :eek:


I've got the streamers ready to decorate the house tonight.

[Rocket Science]

What an opus. Sterling work.

It's encouraging to know we can handle Geelong...but despite their recent wobbles I think we need to guard against thinking we've got them on toast. There's a bloody big job ahead.

[LostDoggy]

What an opus. Sterling work.

It's encouraging to know we can handle Geelong...but despite their recent wobbles I think we need to guard against thinking we've got them on toast. There's a bloody big job ahead.

AGree, Thommo would have put a lot of thought into this game against us, expect a couple of changes.

[ratsmac]

I really must get stay away from this site for a day or two, i'm getting way too pumped up, and it's only Wednesday! :eek:

Thank God I'm not the only one. My wife has been on my back about being anti-social (among a million other thigs).

Great preview. I beleive that Mitch Hahn will be the catalyst of our forward setup. He needs to break the lines like we know he can. When he does that our forward line looks very dangerous.

[anfo27]

One hell of a preview, great read.

[Bulldog4life]

Congratulations guys on a fantastic insightful write up. Very much appreciated.

[BulldogBelle]

Thank God I'm not the only one. My wife has been on my back about being anti-social (among a million other thigs).

Great preview. I beleive that Mitch Hahn will be the catalyst of our forward setup. He needs to break the lines like we know he can. When he does that our forward line looks very dangerous.


I hope Mitch plays a great finals series

The guy is one of my favourite Bulldogs due to his tough and rugged style

I think he was suffering from a foot injury last week and didnt really get amoungst it

Against the weaker clubs Mitch has at times proved to be very dangerous...but when he plays against the #1 defender he stuggles to kick anymore than 1 or 2

He needs to push, shove, bullock and tackle his way through the Geelong defenders this week

I love it when he slams defenders to the ground with bone crunching tackles

[Cyberdoggie]

Another point of note is with the center clearances.
Ling puts himself directly under the ball and he often gets it out directly.
This is either because we expect him to be following one of our players or because we aren't watching him, regardless we need to be aware and ready for this tactic.

[Stefcep]

I hope the umps pick Lings jumper pulling on Cooney this time around

[FrediKanoute]

Great work guys that was an amazing assessment of the weekend's game.......I can hardly wait!

[Mantis]

That was as great write up, well done to the both of you.

It sets up as an intriguing battle and as TBB stated the midfield battle will be a ripper. If we can break-even through the middle we will give ourselves a huge chance. We need to hit in hard and often and apply as much pressure as physically possible to a Geelong team that has to be concerned about our form.

Our unpredictable and ever changing forwardline is one the keys and our great strength. Geelong like to play forwardlines that are predictable as they can zone off their opponents and try and help out their team-mates. The fact that all our forwards are dangerous and can kick multiple goals (quickly) scares the bejesus out of Geelong. If we are able to spot up our leading players we can cause Geelong serious problems.

Murphy & Cooney for me loom as our keys. This time last year both were hobbling around, but were still effective, now with fit bodies they loom as game-breakers.

Murf had something like 14 marks against Geelong in the PF, but his kicking was woeful. If he can rack up another 10 or so marks by leading up the ground he will no doubt deliver the ball better inside 50 this time around.

Coons has found a rich vein of form over the past 3 weeks, the guy is elite and if he fires he is the type of player who will drag us over the line. He finally started to run against Ling a few weeks back and Ling couldn't keep up. I hope he runs him ragged again on Saturday.

It shapes as a ripper contest, I am sure we will be up for the massive challenge that awaits (as Geelong will be). Hoping the weather is kind and that we play to our capabilities, because if we do we will win.

[dog town]

I think our midfield is just so important in this game. The cats know they are under the pump to win this game but have been setting themselves for weeks. They also know they are down a couple of key attacking players. I expect the cats star studded midfield to come out absolutely breathing fire. Guys like Bartel, Ablett, Selwood, Ling etc are going to be stung by so many people writing them off. I think for us to win the game we really have to match them in this area for intensity, composure and numbers. If we are even a little bit complacent in this area then we wont win in my opinion.

Finals are all about pressure around the ball. We want to get inside the contest early and hold our ground to allow our players time to use the ball well. The crowd will be intense and usually in finals or big games you will have a lot of yelling and pressure around the ball so as I said we need to give our players time to make good decisions. This is where the well drilled teams and the teams who do those little extras tend to shine. I think we have them at either end of the ground but the experienced, battle hardened midfield of the cats is my main concern. I certainly hope our guys are not taking them lightly.

[LostDoggy]

What is our record against the Cats in the finals have we ever beaten them in a final?

[Sedat]

What is our record against the Cats in the finals have we ever beaten them in a final?
They've beaten us in 6 consecutive finals dating back to the 1976 Elimination Final, and in 7 of 9 total finals played between the two clubs. The only 2 times we have beaten them were in our premiership year and in 1956.

[The Coon Dog]

What is our record against the Cats in the finals have we ever beaten them in a final?

We have played 9 finals matches v Geelong & lost 7:

1 2008 1PF W Bulldogs 7.12 (54) vs Geelong 12.11 (83) MCG Lost -29

2 1995 QF3 Footscray 10.13 (73) vs Geelong 24.11 (155) MCG Lost -82

3 1994 QF3 Footscray 15.11 (101) vs Geelong 15.16 (106) MCG Lost -5

4 1992 PF Footscray 12.13 (85) vs Geelong 22.17 (149) MCG Lost -64

5 1992 QF Footscray 17.9 (111) vs Geelong 26.16 (172) MCG Lost -61

6 1976 EF Footscray 14.11 (95) vs Geelong 14.18 (102) Wav Lost -7

7 1956 1SF Footscray 5.13 (43) vs Geelong 6.5 (41) MCG WON 2

8 1954 2SF Footscray 11.19 (85) vs Geelong 8.14 (62) MCG WON 23

9 1953 PF Footscray 5.7 (37) vs Geelong 8.15 (63) MCG Lost -26

[LostDoggy]

Thanks Guys appreciate that.

[bulldogtragic]

8 1954 2SF Footscray 11.19 (85) vs Geelong 8.14 (62) MCG WON 23




An omen???

[Sedat]

While we're at it, we've only won 12 finals out of 36 overall finals played. Hopefully this group can set about writing their own history.

[bornadog]

These reviews are outstanding reading and a lot of time and thought has gone into them. I for one appreciate the effort put in.

Since we played Geelong last time there have been a couple of changes to personal at both teams.

Geelong - Harley, Kelly, Ottens, Varcoe (if he comes in)

Bulldogs - Cross, Griffen,

I think Kelly is a great in for Geelong and is also a prolific ball gatherer. Ottens is unknown how he will perform being out for such a long time.

[Studentlib]

What an absolutely outstanding preview, why buy a paper when you have this standard of analysis?
What influence will the larger ground have on " breaking the lines " as well as for the crucial Mooney/ Morris matchup?

[Topdog]

Ottens is unknown how he will perform being out for such a long time.

Players tend to have a downer on their 2nd game back from injury so I wouldn't be surprised to see Ottens really struggle this week.

[Happy Days]

Absolutely sterling write-up guys, top effort.

[Mantis]

What an absolutely outstanding preview, why buy a paper when you have this standard of analysis?
What influence will the larger ground have on " breaking the lines " as well as for the crucial Mooney/ Morris matchup?

Morris did a very good job on Mooney in the PF last year so I don't think it will make much difference.

[Raw Toast]

Fantastic preview, thanks to all involved.

Very nervous about this game - can we handle the expectation? I think Geelong have one big win left in them, but hope it's not this week. The good thing from my perspective, is that I think if both teams play to their current capacity then we will win (bearing in mind injury concerns and what should be our fitness advantage).

A good chance to see how much has been learnt from last year's QF. Hopefully we come out keen for this contest, as hungry as we've ever been, and neither over-awed or complacent.

So many key-match ups and they've been covered well. I think the Cats will try and lock down on Cooney much more. Ling spent some time on Boyd last time, which freed Cooney up and I don't think they'll make that mistake again. If the midfield can work for him and Cooney busts his gut and doesn't drop his head we'll be in with a great chance.

Shaggy is another key (had strong claims for bog last time round imo and a vital part of our recent resurgence).

I agree that Selwood is their heart and soul and the Geelong player most likely to stand up when needed. I'd love to see Ward break even or even take the points against him.

Finally I'll nominate Griffen, Hahn and Minson as potential x-factors from our side. Hoping in particular that Griff comes in fresh with little opposition focus and reminds the Cats of his performance against them in his debut year).

[Raw Toast]

What influence will the larger ground have on " breaking the lines"

I reckon the role of the MCG in what happens is one of the most interesting aspects of this clash. Geelong are a bit more familiar with it and like playing on it, but it gives us more opportunity to run them into the ground, to isolate their defenders, and for our forwards to find some space.

The thing the Cats will like about it I reckon, is the chance to use the extra space to try and nullify our forward pressure. Last time around we stopped their run for three quarters, but when we dropped off a bit in the 3rd quarter they killed us with their ball movement from defence. However, Hawthorn showed that you can still implement an effective zone against them on the MCG.

The Cats have set themselves for this one (and a possible clash against St Kilda) and are confident they can break through via well-timed handpasses. Their problem is they don't really have another plan, so they'll live or die by this tactic. We however, have shown recently that we're able to play to a couple of different tempo's, so have a few more strings to our bow (as long as we keep our composure).

[anfo27]

I reckon the role of the MCG in what happens is one of the most interesting aspects of this clash. Geelong are a bit more familiar with it and like playing on it, but it gives us more opportunity to run them into the ground, to isolate their defenders, and for our forwards to find some space.

The thing the Cats will like about it I reckon, is the chance to use the extra space to try and nullify our forward pressure. Last time around we stopped their run for three quarters, but when we dropped off a bit in the 3rd quarter they killed us with their ball movement from defence. However, Hawthorn showed that you can still implement an effective zone against them on the MCG.

The Cats have set themselves for this one (and a possible clash against St Kilda) and are confident they can break through via well-timed handpasses. Their problem is they don't really have another plan, so they'll live or die by this tactic. We however, have shown recently that we're able to play to a couple of different tempo's, so have a few more strings to our bow (as long as we keep our composure).

Thats the key for me, if we stay composed & take our opportunities i can't see us losing.

[firstdogonthemoon]

It is not just a pleasure, it is also an honour to be part of this community of people who for no reward other than their love of the game and willingness share their knowledge create such beautiful work.

Many thanks and much gratitude to everyone involved.

Also you said we would win and that is nice to hear. What I like is that it is ours to lose, destiny and hands and all that.

[The Coon Dog]

What I like is that it is ours to lose, destiny and hands and all that.
Too true firstdog, no injuries, no fear, no excuses!

[LostDoggy]

History is there to be broken!! =]

[The Bulldogs Bite]

What I like is that it is ours to lose, destiny and hands and all that.

Ditto.

It's a good point made. It's a big game for the club and everybody involved with it. Probably the one game that will tell us whether or not we're ready to play in a Grand Final. No better opportunity. These guys have been there before, we've got that finals experience. We've got the form and the belief required at the right time of the year. It's all in their hands and by 5pm today, we're going to know if this group of players are capable of winning the Premiership.

[bornadog]

The Cats have set themselves for this one (and a possible clash against St Kilda) and are confident they can break through via well-timed handpasses. Their problem is they don't really have another plan, so they'll live or die by this tactic. We however, have shown recently that we're able to play to a couple of different tempo's, so have a few more strings to our bow (as long as we keep our composure).

They had an incredible 245 handpasses against us in round 21. I think Geelong need to kick the ball more as we had number around the ball and their hand balling was not effective. They would have studied that game and may try a different strategy, but whether they can play to a different game plan is debatable this late in the season.

The MCG does bring a new dimension to the game, but I am confident, we can prevail as we also play the MCG well. We saw that last year in the prelim, but just couldn't nail the easy goals.

The best way we can win is through a big score, ie we must kick over 100 points, none of this tight match business with less than 10 goals a piece, we never win those. In all our wins we kick big big scores.