LostDoggy
02-06-2010, 02:56 PM
Etihad Stadium
Sunday, June 6
4:30pm
http://images.theage.com.au/2010/03/28/1266661/svHAHN-420x0.jpg
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HAVE WE MET BEFORE?
Looking at comrade’s fantastic preview to round 1, it would be fair to say that the mood around the place has changed somewhat since then.
In Round 1 we were coming off a 40+ point win against a Nick Riewoldt led St. Kilda, just given our lonely 1954 AFL premiership cup a little night premiership cousin, were warm flag favourites with the bookies and punters, had ‘enviable depth’ making all of us wonder how 25 were going to fit into 22, re-signed Aker, Lake and Eagle in the off-season, and Williams, Gia and Murph had just had their best ever pre-seasons.
Come Round 11, wins in glorified practice matches have been long forgotten, we are coming off a loss to Essendon in an insipid performance, we have been exposed for midfield running depth all season as our midfielders have either broken down with injury or been found wanting form/fitness wise, we barely have enough fit players to field a competitive 22, and Eagle, Aker, Williams, Gia and Murph have all had up-and-down seasons (like the team itself), and our superstar captain can’t get on the park after being hit by a stray golf buggy.
What a difference a few points make. If the Dogs had held on to win against St.Kilda, and snuck out the win against Essendon last week, we would all be abuzz about the resilience and ability to win of the group. We did get out of jail against Melbourne to sit at 6-4 in a crazy season which we could plausibly have been 8-2 (and top 2), or 5-5 (and as low as 10th). As it is, we’re 5th, which looks about right.
WHERE ARE COLLINGWOOD AT?
Basically, in pretty much the same place as we’ve been all season. They started the season as top 4 contenders, beat us in round 1, then barely got over Melbourne (hey, sound familiar?), looked in red-hot form against a couple of mid-table teams and went to premiership favouritism, had their players' tyres pumped up by the media, which were then flattened by Geelong and Brisbane the last two rounds. Suddenly, it’s crisis time down at Magpie land, and it’s fair to say that if Akergate hadn’t been front and back page news all week, there would have been more over-the-top media “analysis” of the Collywobbles. Medhurst, our tomentor from Round 1, and Leon Davis are both missing/injured/sooking, and their much vaunted forwardline doesn’t stand up in big games (again, sound familiar?). They look good beating up on weaker teams (again, sound familiar??) because their mids all cheat and play forward of the ball, but if a team can win the inside ball against them (ie. Geelong, or Black/Power for Brisbane) they are stuffed. Malthouse knows this, so against the better teams he reins in the running-forward-of-the-ball a bit, which then affects their goalscoring ability. These guys also love kicking more behinds than goals, especially after half-time in big matches (again, sound familiar???).
DANGER! DANGER!
Harry O’ Brien and Nick Maxwell – the twin towers down back. Both big, strong and super-athletic, both read the play well, both have good disposal skills. If these guys are unaccountable, they will run the ball out 30 times and set up 20 scoring shots off their own boots. WHAT TO DO? We just have to play through their opponents as often as possible, who have to move around like buggery to keep them honest. Fev towelled up Maxwell last week when Nick wouldn’t pay him any respect.
Travis Cloke – Like everyone else, I don’t know what to make of this guy. On his day he is unplayable, big enough and fast enough and has a large enough tank to be a nightmare match-up, but his ‘days’ are as rare as an uncooked leg of lamb. On his bad days (which are many) he is the ideal player to run off, as he seems to get lost in traffic, lose sight of the ball, forget how to kick etc. It is not a stretch to say that if Cloke doesn’t show up, Collingwood are 50% of the way to losing. If he does show up, though, they usually win. WHAT TO DO? Morris/Williams. Our best stopper on him to start, but if he’s out-marking him on the lead, Williams to stay with him. Lake to help out as 3rd man up if Travis is playing deep.
Dane Swan – No secret that I have a man-crush on this guy. He’s as good, hard and clear-headed a player as you will ever want to have in your team. If Collingwood had two Dane Swans it would be game over red rover. WHAT TO DO? EDIT (thanks EJ and TBB): Boydy to beat him one-on-one. Matthew also looks better with a clear role to play, and can leave the fancy stuff to Coons and Griff. Also, if you get the ball first then he can’t. He’s smarter than you, though, so watch out for his sneaky positioning. He’ll also try to steal the ball off you when you get it inside, so make sure you get the handball out to the right guy.
Sharrod Wellingham - This kid has been in white-hot form all year. He gets his hands clear, has great vision in traffic, and is as clean as the day is long. Hey, he’s Aker minus the magic. WHAT TO DO? Addison/Wood?
Alan Didak – biggest front-running cheat in the game, but so very good at it. The other guys (Ball etc.) block for him to get it at the back of the pack, so we have to watch him closely. WHAT TO DO? Picken was made for guys like this. He is also unaccountable, so Liam to look to hurt him going the other way.
Darren Jolly – dangerous resting ruck. WHAT TO DO? Williams, or Lake to run off him.
GIVE THESE GUYS THE BALL
Heath Shaw – this bloke can’t kick. Teams get scared because he gets the ball a lot and runs fast, but if you corral him and make him run to the wings (which is where he likes to go anyway) instead of straight up the ground, he’ll turn it over.
Dale Thomas – okay, don’t let him get near the goals because he knows how to find them, but anywhere else on the ground, just cover his next option and you’ll get the ball back. Also, if you put pressure on this guy (even referred pressure) he’ll just kick it any old how, usually off the side of his boot. Griff/Harbrow should play on him (depending on where he is) and towel him up as Thomas is as unaccountable as they come.
Chris Dawes – again, not near the goals, because he’ll score, but anywhere else on the ground, this guy’s disposal (especially by hand) is a liability. He likes to lead up to the wing at the top of the 50 (all the Collingwood guys do) but once he’s too far out to score, let him have it and cover the most obvious handball option.
BULLDOGS SELECTION TABLE
Well, Aker is out so someone else (Moles? Wood?) comes in. Higgins played like an old man last week, but Eagleton IS an old man, so that’s much of a muchness. Then there are the rumours that Johnno is ready to come back in, but the ins-and-outs have been discussed ad nauseum in its own thread anyway, so I’ll just focus on Rocco’s favourite topic – are we too top heavy with 2 ruckmen? Well, what ARE our options and what are the consequences of each?
OPTION 1, go in with 2 ruckmen: Well, we would still be short on running depth, ESPECIALLY if Everitt comes in, so some other tall would have to go out of the side. Hahn is the most obvious candidate, but it would be a very un-Rocket like decision to drop Mitch. So we’ll probably go in top heavy.
OPTION 2, Huddo rucks, Minnow goes back to Willy, Williams/Everitt share ruck duties: Essentially Everitt would be coming in for Minson, so we’ll gain a bit in mobility but Everitt is no Minson in the ruck. Everitt isn’t a runner as such either, so we may still need to get Moles into the side to replace Hahn or Grant.
OPTION 3, Huddo rucks, Minnow goes back to Willy, Williams rucks sometimes: Everitt doesn’t come in for Minnow, instead, we bring a runner (Moles, Eagleton, Wood) directly in for Minson. Horses for courses – Lake/Morris can probably cover Cloke/Dawes, but we were burnt by resting ruckmen last week, so if Jolly comes forward, Williams must go back.
OPTION 4, Huddo rucks, Minnow plays 60% upfront, Hahn dropped for a runner: My preferred option. Hahn isn’t offering much up forward that Minnow wouldn’t be able to anyway, but we get a quality second ruck option without having to sacrifice either Williams or Everitt, PLUS we get extra run.
OPTION 5: Exactly the same as Option 4, but with Roughhead instead of Minson: May actually work better, as Jordan offers more up forward than Minnow does, and probably more than Hahn does at this point.
WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON THIS SEASON?
It would be fair to say that most Dogs supporters are confused, emotionally and rationally. We don’t come close very often, so when we are told that we are ‘favourites’, we want it to be pain-free and easy, and are prone to over-reacting when things don’t quite go our way. Stepping back, however, it would be fair to say that it has been a topsy-turvy season for EVERYONE bar Geelong, who remains the competition yardstick.
LANTERN’S HYPOTHESIS
All clubs would have planned for the upcoming list/draft rape by GC17 and GWS, and foreseen that seasons 2011 – 2013 have to be flag-chasing seasons, not rebuilding ones. As such, ALL clubs have been timing their rebuilds to ensure that their lists are at their most competitive through these years. Essendon, Carlton, Fremantle and Melbourne are all now starting to see the fruit of their efforts, with North, the Eagles and Port not too far behind. Brisbane and Sydney are recycling heavily to remain competitive. They won’t all end up at the same level of strength during the next few years, but with all teams timing their windows to the same time, this has ensured that the next few years will be very even and competitive seasons. This will be even more pronounced as the stronger teams of this last few years ie. St.Kilda, Geelong, Collingwood, Hawthorn and yes, the Dogs, who haven’t blooded as many youngsters in our respective 'windows', come off our respective peaks.
Season 2010 is the cusp of that future, with teams like Carlton and Essendon, while not strong or consistent enough yet to be genuine contenders, still having the talent to beat Geelong, St. Kilda and the Dogs.
This long-winded hypothesis has hopefully showed that the yo-yo results (how many of us have picked 8 winners consistently?) of the season are probably more a by-product of the evenness of the competition than any particular strength or weakness of individual teams. Hawthorn 2008 and St Kilda 2009 have probably skewed the perception that strong teams go through seasons unbeaten, but that was probably again a by-product of many teams choosing to go through their rebuild phases at the time (to be ready for 2011-2013) so were at their weakest.
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE DOGS?
Basically, no “gimmes”. I think we know this already. There are no favourites in the brave new multi-contender world. Other than North and Richmond this season, every team is capable of beating every team on any given day, so we just have to show up to play. Also, it's better to peak in the second half rather than the first half of the season, as long as this isn't just 2007 repeated.
I think it is fair to say that Rocket has tweaked our game-style to hypothetically better suit finals footy – low-scoring, pressure based, slower and more deliberate. It remains to be seen if it will work, but basically Rocket is getting the same criticism that Pim Verbeek has been getting for 2 years, and their defence would basically be that they are both building a team for the pointy end: “Sure, it looks bad when you struggle to break down Indonesia/New Zealand/Essendon, but you’ll be glad when the time comes and Geelong/Denmark/Germany can’t score against us and we eke out a one/two goal win.”
Well, the proof will be in the pudding, and we’ll just have to wait till the end of the season to see if Rocket is right by:
a. Making top 4, and
b. Making the GF/winning the damn thing
WHERE IT WILL BE WON OR LOST
Not rocket science, but:
In the middle – if Coons, Griff, Boydy, Cross, Huddo and Gia beat Jolly, Didak, Ball, Wellingham and Swan, well, the game will at least be on our terms.
On the rebound – Lake, Harbrow, Gilbee and Hargrave aren’t running the ball out as much as they used to. This seems to be part of the defensive game plan. This is fine, but if Maxwell and O’Brien run out unimpeded, it will be ugly.
Uncontested disposal, especially entries into forward 50 - If we turn it over regularly, we lose. If we don’t we win. I think it really is that simple.
Across half forward - We are really missing the class of Murph and Gia's move into the middle has been robbing Peter to pay Paul. Grant has the opportunity to really stamp his mark, but it's probably asking too much of a 10-gamer. Gia has to get back to what he does best, and we select another runner (Wood?) to play in the middle.
In the mind – both teams have a lot to think about. Who will come out with the determination and desire to stamp their class on a season that is up for grabs? Who wants it more? This game will provide some answers, and it won’t be pretty for one team. Hopefully it’s not us.
VERDICT
A draw. No, the Dogs by 12 points after letting the Pies get out to a 32 point lead. No, I really have no idea at this point.
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PS. A SPECIAL MENTION TO A WONDERFUL FORTNIGHT
Of course, no preview of this week’s match would be complete without a mention of Aker’s column and Bazza’s headlock. There, mentioned. (There was also a Hall of Fame dinner in there somewhere...)
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Sunday, June 6
4:30pm
http://images.theage.com.au/2010/03/28/1266661/svHAHN-420x0.jpg
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HAVE WE MET BEFORE?
Looking at comrade’s fantastic preview to round 1, it would be fair to say that the mood around the place has changed somewhat since then.
In Round 1 we were coming off a 40+ point win against a Nick Riewoldt led St. Kilda, just given our lonely 1954 AFL premiership cup a little night premiership cousin, were warm flag favourites with the bookies and punters, had ‘enviable depth’ making all of us wonder how 25 were going to fit into 22, re-signed Aker, Lake and Eagle in the off-season, and Williams, Gia and Murph had just had their best ever pre-seasons.
Come Round 11, wins in glorified practice matches have been long forgotten, we are coming off a loss to Essendon in an insipid performance, we have been exposed for midfield running depth all season as our midfielders have either broken down with injury or been found wanting form/fitness wise, we barely have enough fit players to field a competitive 22, and Eagle, Aker, Williams, Gia and Murph have all had up-and-down seasons (like the team itself), and our superstar captain can’t get on the park after being hit by a stray golf buggy.
What a difference a few points make. If the Dogs had held on to win against St.Kilda, and snuck out the win against Essendon last week, we would all be abuzz about the resilience and ability to win of the group. We did get out of jail against Melbourne to sit at 6-4 in a crazy season which we could plausibly have been 8-2 (and top 2), or 5-5 (and as low as 10th). As it is, we’re 5th, which looks about right.
WHERE ARE COLLINGWOOD AT?
Basically, in pretty much the same place as we’ve been all season. They started the season as top 4 contenders, beat us in round 1, then barely got over Melbourne (hey, sound familiar?), looked in red-hot form against a couple of mid-table teams and went to premiership favouritism, had their players' tyres pumped up by the media, which were then flattened by Geelong and Brisbane the last two rounds. Suddenly, it’s crisis time down at Magpie land, and it’s fair to say that if Akergate hadn’t been front and back page news all week, there would have been more over-the-top media “analysis” of the Collywobbles. Medhurst, our tomentor from Round 1, and Leon Davis are both missing/injured/sooking, and their much vaunted forwardline doesn’t stand up in big games (again, sound familiar?). They look good beating up on weaker teams (again, sound familiar??) because their mids all cheat and play forward of the ball, but if a team can win the inside ball against them (ie. Geelong, or Black/Power for Brisbane) they are stuffed. Malthouse knows this, so against the better teams he reins in the running-forward-of-the-ball a bit, which then affects their goalscoring ability. These guys also love kicking more behinds than goals, especially after half-time in big matches (again, sound familiar???).
DANGER! DANGER!
Harry O’ Brien and Nick Maxwell – the twin towers down back. Both big, strong and super-athletic, both read the play well, both have good disposal skills. If these guys are unaccountable, they will run the ball out 30 times and set up 20 scoring shots off their own boots. WHAT TO DO? We just have to play through their opponents as often as possible, who have to move around like buggery to keep them honest. Fev towelled up Maxwell last week when Nick wouldn’t pay him any respect.
Travis Cloke – Like everyone else, I don’t know what to make of this guy. On his day he is unplayable, big enough and fast enough and has a large enough tank to be a nightmare match-up, but his ‘days’ are as rare as an uncooked leg of lamb. On his bad days (which are many) he is the ideal player to run off, as he seems to get lost in traffic, lose sight of the ball, forget how to kick etc. It is not a stretch to say that if Cloke doesn’t show up, Collingwood are 50% of the way to losing. If he does show up, though, they usually win. WHAT TO DO? Morris/Williams. Our best stopper on him to start, but if he’s out-marking him on the lead, Williams to stay with him. Lake to help out as 3rd man up if Travis is playing deep.
Dane Swan – No secret that I have a man-crush on this guy. He’s as good, hard and clear-headed a player as you will ever want to have in your team. If Collingwood had two Dane Swans it would be game over red rover. WHAT TO DO? EDIT (thanks EJ and TBB): Boydy to beat him one-on-one. Matthew also looks better with a clear role to play, and can leave the fancy stuff to Coons and Griff. Also, if you get the ball first then he can’t. He’s smarter than you, though, so watch out for his sneaky positioning. He’ll also try to steal the ball off you when you get it inside, so make sure you get the handball out to the right guy.
Sharrod Wellingham - This kid has been in white-hot form all year. He gets his hands clear, has great vision in traffic, and is as clean as the day is long. Hey, he’s Aker minus the magic. WHAT TO DO? Addison/Wood?
Alan Didak – biggest front-running cheat in the game, but so very good at it. The other guys (Ball etc.) block for him to get it at the back of the pack, so we have to watch him closely. WHAT TO DO? Picken was made for guys like this. He is also unaccountable, so Liam to look to hurt him going the other way.
Darren Jolly – dangerous resting ruck. WHAT TO DO? Williams, or Lake to run off him.
GIVE THESE GUYS THE BALL
Heath Shaw – this bloke can’t kick. Teams get scared because he gets the ball a lot and runs fast, but if you corral him and make him run to the wings (which is where he likes to go anyway) instead of straight up the ground, he’ll turn it over.
Dale Thomas – okay, don’t let him get near the goals because he knows how to find them, but anywhere else on the ground, just cover his next option and you’ll get the ball back. Also, if you put pressure on this guy (even referred pressure) he’ll just kick it any old how, usually off the side of his boot. Griff/Harbrow should play on him (depending on where he is) and towel him up as Thomas is as unaccountable as they come.
Chris Dawes – again, not near the goals, because he’ll score, but anywhere else on the ground, this guy’s disposal (especially by hand) is a liability. He likes to lead up to the wing at the top of the 50 (all the Collingwood guys do) but once he’s too far out to score, let him have it and cover the most obvious handball option.
BULLDOGS SELECTION TABLE
Well, Aker is out so someone else (Moles? Wood?) comes in. Higgins played like an old man last week, but Eagleton IS an old man, so that’s much of a muchness. Then there are the rumours that Johnno is ready to come back in, but the ins-and-outs have been discussed ad nauseum in its own thread anyway, so I’ll just focus on Rocco’s favourite topic – are we too top heavy with 2 ruckmen? Well, what ARE our options and what are the consequences of each?
OPTION 1, go in with 2 ruckmen: Well, we would still be short on running depth, ESPECIALLY if Everitt comes in, so some other tall would have to go out of the side. Hahn is the most obvious candidate, but it would be a very un-Rocket like decision to drop Mitch. So we’ll probably go in top heavy.
OPTION 2, Huddo rucks, Minnow goes back to Willy, Williams/Everitt share ruck duties: Essentially Everitt would be coming in for Minson, so we’ll gain a bit in mobility but Everitt is no Minson in the ruck. Everitt isn’t a runner as such either, so we may still need to get Moles into the side to replace Hahn or Grant.
OPTION 3, Huddo rucks, Minnow goes back to Willy, Williams rucks sometimes: Everitt doesn’t come in for Minnow, instead, we bring a runner (Moles, Eagleton, Wood) directly in for Minson. Horses for courses – Lake/Morris can probably cover Cloke/Dawes, but we were burnt by resting ruckmen last week, so if Jolly comes forward, Williams must go back.
OPTION 4, Huddo rucks, Minnow plays 60% upfront, Hahn dropped for a runner: My preferred option. Hahn isn’t offering much up forward that Minnow wouldn’t be able to anyway, but we get a quality second ruck option without having to sacrifice either Williams or Everitt, PLUS we get extra run.
OPTION 5: Exactly the same as Option 4, but with Roughhead instead of Minson: May actually work better, as Jordan offers more up forward than Minnow does, and probably more than Hahn does at this point.
WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON THIS SEASON?
It would be fair to say that most Dogs supporters are confused, emotionally and rationally. We don’t come close very often, so when we are told that we are ‘favourites’, we want it to be pain-free and easy, and are prone to over-reacting when things don’t quite go our way. Stepping back, however, it would be fair to say that it has been a topsy-turvy season for EVERYONE bar Geelong, who remains the competition yardstick.
LANTERN’S HYPOTHESIS
All clubs would have planned for the upcoming list/draft rape by GC17 and GWS, and foreseen that seasons 2011 – 2013 have to be flag-chasing seasons, not rebuilding ones. As such, ALL clubs have been timing their rebuilds to ensure that their lists are at their most competitive through these years. Essendon, Carlton, Fremantle and Melbourne are all now starting to see the fruit of their efforts, with North, the Eagles and Port not too far behind. Brisbane and Sydney are recycling heavily to remain competitive. They won’t all end up at the same level of strength during the next few years, but with all teams timing their windows to the same time, this has ensured that the next few years will be very even and competitive seasons. This will be even more pronounced as the stronger teams of this last few years ie. St.Kilda, Geelong, Collingwood, Hawthorn and yes, the Dogs, who haven’t blooded as many youngsters in our respective 'windows', come off our respective peaks.
Season 2010 is the cusp of that future, with teams like Carlton and Essendon, while not strong or consistent enough yet to be genuine contenders, still having the talent to beat Geelong, St. Kilda and the Dogs.
This long-winded hypothesis has hopefully showed that the yo-yo results (how many of us have picked 8 winners consistently?) of the season are probably more a by-product of the evenness of the competition than any particular strength or weakness of individual teams. Hawthorn 2008 and St Kilda 2009 have probably skewed the perception that strong teams go through seasons unbeaten, but that was probably again a by-product of many teams choosing to go through their rebuild phases at the time (to be ready for 2011-2013) so were at their weakest.
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE DOGS?
Basically, no “gimmes”. I think we know this already. There are no favourites in the brave new multi-contender world. Other than North and Richmond this season, every team is capable of beating every team on any given day, so we just have to show up to play. Also, it's better to peak in the second half rather than the first half of the season, as long as this isn't just 2007 repeated.
I think it is fair to say that Rocket has tweaked our game-style to hypothetically better suit finals footy – low-scoring, pressure based, slower and more deliberate. It remains to be seen if it will work, but basically Rocket is getting the same criticism that Pim Verbeek has been getting for 2 years, and their defence would basically be that they are both building a team for the pointy end: “Sure, it looks bad when you struggle to break down Indonesia/New Zealand/Essendon, but you’ll be glad when the time comes and Geelong/Denmark/Germany can’t score against us and we eke out a one/two goal win.”
Well, the proof will be in the pudding, and we’ll just have to wait till the end of the season to see if Rocket is right by:
a. Making top 4, and
b. Making the GF/winning the damn thing
WHERE IT WILL BE WON OR LOST
Not rocket science, but:
In the middle – if Coons, Griff, Boydy, Cross, Huddo and Gia beat Jolly, Didak, Ball, Wellingham and Swan, well, the game will at least be on our terms.
On the rebound – Lake, Harbrow, Gilbee and Hargrave aren’t running the ball out as much as they used to. This seems to be part of the defensive game plan. This is fine, but if Maxwell and O’Brien run out unimpeded, it will be ugly.
Uncontested disposal, especially entries into forward 50 - If we turn it over regularly, we lose. If we don’t we win. I think it really is that simple.
Across half forward - We are really missing the class of Murph and Gia's move into the middle has been robbing Peter to pay Paul. Grant has the opportunity to really stamp his mark, but it's probably asking too much of a 10-gamer. Gia has to get back to what he does best, and we select another runner (Wood?) to play in the middle.
In the mind – both teams have a lot to think about. Who will come out with the determination and desire to stamp their class on a season that is up for grabs? Who wants it more? This game will provide some answers, and it won’t be pretty for one team. Hopefully it’s not us.
VERDICT
A draw. No, the Dogs by 12 points after letting the Pies get out to a 32 point lead. No, I really have no idea at this point.
---
PS. A SPECIAL MENTION TO A WONDERFUL FORTNIGHT
Of course, no preview of this week’s match would be complete without a mention of Aker’s column and Bazza’s headlock. There, mentioned. (There was also a Hall of Fame dinner in there somewhere...)
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