Greystache
29-06-2010, 11:41 AM
When and Where
Friday, July 2
7:40pm
MCG
Ladder Positions
Western Bulldogs 5th- 8 wins 5 losses 129.52%
Hawthorn 8th- 7 wins 6 losses 102.94%
Last time they met:
Round 3- April 11 2010
Western Bulldogs 2.4 6.5 8.14 14.16 (100)
Hawthorn 3.3 5.7 8.9 12.12 (84)
GOALS
Western Bulldogs: Hall 6, Murphy 2, Harbrow, Giansiracusa, Higgins, Griffen, Hahn, Hill
Hawthorn: Rioli 4, Roughead 4, Ellis, Renouf, Morton, Hodge
BEST
Western Bulldogs: Griffen, Gilbee, Boyd, Hall, Cooney, Minson, Harbrow, Cross
Hawthorn: Rioli, Hodge, Mitchell, Roughead, Lewis
Last 5 games head to head
Round 3 2010- WB 100 def Haw 84
Round 14 2009- WB 133 def Haw 45
Qualifying Final 2008- Haw 127 def WB 76
Round 10 2008- WB 106 def Haw 74
Round 21 2007- Haw 151 def 67
Form leading in:
Hawthorn
WWWWW
After a poor start to the season where they were 1-6 Hawthorn have found their winning ways again and now find themselves 7-6 and sitting in 8th place. Their much publicized injury list has diminished and they are almost back to full strength. At their best they have a strong midfield that wins clearances and contested football, a disciplined structure that relies heavily on team work rather than individual brilliance, and a forward line in Franklin, Roughead, and Rioli that can tear a team apart on their day.
Hawthorn showed glimpses of the form that took them to the 2008 premiership against Essendon before the break, they were tough in the contested situations, used the ball cleanly, and were playing the aggressive style that coined the phrase “unsociable football”. Lance Franklin was back at his absolute best which is something that’s been lacking and their fringe players such as Osborne and Muston stood up when the team needed them. Have they turned the corner, or are they merely beating middle of the road sides? This week should go some way to answering the question.
Western Bulldogs
WLLWW
The Bulldogs form continues to ebb and flow in 2010, disappointing performances against Essendon and Collingwood have been followed by thumping wins against a struggling Brisbane and West Coast. The balance of the team has looked better in recent weeks with the rapid development of Jarrad Grant as the lead up forward allowing Murphy to add some class and creativity in defence, Wood has added extra run to a defence that was looking a little stagnant, and with key players in Johnson and Ward starting to overcome serious injuries could this be the time the Bulldogs start to make their mark on a season that promised so much after an impressive pre-season.
Potential Ins & Outs
Hawthorn- Josh Gibson is a chance to return from a serious hamstring injury although it appears likely he will play in the VFL this week, Rhan Hooper is a chance to regain his spot, but most likely we won’t see many changes from the team the defeated Essendon by 16 points.
No change
Western Bulldogs- Callan Ward is a chance to come in for his first game of the year after overcoming a groin problem and having played 3 games at VFL Reserves and Seniors, Tom Williams may return from a slight hamstring injury suffered against Brisbane, as may Shaun Higgins who rolled an ankle on some questionable turf at Etihad against Collingwood. Sam Reid may also come into calculations having overcome off-season groin surgery, along with the potential promotion of Andrejs Everitt, Dylan Addison, and Tim Callan.
In- Ward, Williams, Higgins
Out- Stack, Eagleton, Hill.
Key Match ups
Franklin vs Lake- This contest will go a long way to deciding the outcome of the match, if Franklin gets loose and kicks a bag Hawthorn will win, but if Lake can continue to dominate Franklin the way he has in the past 3 games (including the NAB cup earlier this year) the Hawks will struggle to kick a winning score. Franklin was back to his best last week, he pushed up to the wing and dragged the other forwards with him effectively creating the old Pagans Paddock which allowed him the space to burn off opponents with his pace. He has a bigger tank than Lake and would be well advised to try and run Brian around, but as we’ve seen in recent times Franklin has continued to try and outmuscle Lake which has played into Brian’s hands.
Roughead vs Morris-
Roughead’s form has been nothing to write home about this season, last week he looked badly out of touch and even slightly disinterested at times, but you can’t take him lightly as he looms as a potential match winner should he play at his best. Morris has been solid if not spectacular against Roughead, 3cm shorter, 10kg lighter, and without the vertical leap Roughead possesses, Morris gives 100% all the time and ensures any kicks Roughead gets he earns.
Rioli vs Harbrow/Picken-
Rioli has been more style than substance in 2010, pre-season injury has impacted his fitness reducing his time in the midfield meaning he is spending more time forward. Harbrow has the pace and agility to go with Rioli but his defensive capabilities continue to remain a question mark, Harbrow did quite well in round 3 but Rioli still kicked 4. I think we may see Picken go to Rioli to play a pure lockdown role, and as we have seen in the past year and a half anyone being targeted by Liam will have to work hard for any possessions they get.
Hall vs Gilham
Much has been made of whether Hall has helped or hindered the Bulldogs structure but regardless Hall’s form has been superb all season, rarely putting in a poor performance he sits second on the Coleman medal count with 46 goals. Gilham doesn’t have the size, pace, strength, or ability to go with Hall and will be reliant on team mates coming in to double team him and also for the midfield to pressure the ball carrier to restrict the delivery to Barry. If Hall is left one out often enough he could be in for another bag similar to the 6 he kicked in round 3.
Hodge vs Picken/Higgins
Hodge will probably start in the midfield but as has been proven many times before when he’s faced with a close checking tagger he struggles to have an impact, Picken is the perfect match up, he has the endurance and physicality to make things tough for Luke. Hodge’s relief valve when struggling is to be released into the back line as a free man to go second up and sweep the ball off half back, when this occurs the best way to counter it is to position a dangerous small forward alongside Hodge to force him to be accountable and affect his freedom to zone off. Higgins (when in form) is the ideal match up, he can command the ball in dangerous areas, and if not given respect he can kick goals in quick succession, see Milburn in the 2008 prelim final. This will then free up Picken to match up Rioli.
Midfield vs Midfield
Along with the Lake Franklin duel this will go a long way to deciding the result, Hawthorn’s midfield is solid rather than brilliant, not blessed with pace in Mitchell, Sewell, and Hodge they will look to win the ball in close and feed it out to their receivers in Ellis, Bateman, Young, and Burgoyne. The Bulldogs midfield have the edge in pace with Cooney and Griffen, along with in and under types in Cross and Boyd. The People’s Beard with his crash and bash rucking style along with his unique ability to win contested possessions and fire out a handball to a team mate will be an important factor.
Where the game will be won and lost
Hawthorn’s forward line always looms as a danger, but the Bulldogs defence won’t be overwhelmed, averaging a miserly 83 points per game they rank as the second most frugal defence in 2010. Last week Hawthorn pushed their forwards right up the ground adding to their defensive zone and allowing Franklin to isolate his opponent in space. Lake doesn’t have the tank to run with Franklin so I think he’s best placed to sit back and not follow him outside of goal scoring range (60m) and instead fill the hole to prevent Hawthorn bombing the ball long into space. The Bulldogs could use a double teaming structure in Lake picking him up when inside 60m, then a more aerobically capable defender in either Williams or Everitt (should the selectors go with him instead) to pick him up around the wing.
Hawthorn is still heavily reliant on the midfield zone and press to cover up some deficiencies in their defence and lack of pace through the midfield. If the Bulldogs can work their way through the zone and deliver the football with efficiency inside 50m players like Ladson, Guerra, Murphy, and Gilham will be exposed, if they can’t and are forced to bomb the ball long under pressure Hawthorn will hurt them on the rebound. The Bulldogs are quicker and more skilful through the midfield and I think we’ll see Harbrow push up to the wing and midfield where possible depending on match ups to expose them further. Defensive pressure in the middle of the ground will be imperative, when playing well Hawthorn pressure the ball carrier as well as anyone, the Bulldogs can be hit and miss in this area, when they make it a focus they are excellent, when they feel it’s a game they should win they often drop right off, they can’t afford to be slack otherwise it will hurt them.
Verdict
Hawthorn are yet to beat anyone above 6th, some of their wins have been hard fought victories against relatively poor opposition, and they still lack strength in depth and quality defenders. The Bulldogs are also yet to take a big scalp in 2010 and can’t afford to drop winnable games such as this. Hawthorn are flat track bullies, Bulldogs with too much class.
Bulldogs by 36 points.
Friday, July 2
7:40pm
MCG
Ladder Positions
Western Bulldogs 5th- 8 wins 5 losses 129.52%
Hawthorn 8th- 7 wins 6 losses 102.94%
Last time they met:
Round 3- April 11 2010
Western Bulldogs 2.4 6.5 8.14 14.16 (100)
Hawthorn 3.3 5.7 8.9 12.12 (84)
GOALS
Western Bulldogs: Hall 6, Murphy 2, Harbrow, Giansiracusa, Higgins, Griffen, Hahn, Hill
Hawthorn: Rioli 4, Roughead 4, Ellis, Renouf, Morton, Hodge
BEST
Western Bulldogs: Griffen, Gilbee, Boyd, Hall, Cooney, Minson, Harbrow, Cross
Hawthorn: Rioli, Hodge, Mitchell, Roughead, Lewis
Last 5 games head to head
Round 3 2010- WB 100 def Haw 84
Round 14 2009- WB 133 def Haw 45
Qualifying Final 2008- Haw 127 def WB 76
Round 10 2008- WB 106 def Haw 74
Round 21 2007- Haw 151 def 67
Form leading in:
Hawthorn
WWWWW
After a poor start to the season where they were 1-6 Hawthorn have found their winning ways again and now find themselves 7-6 and sitting in 8th place. Their much publicized injury list has diminished and they are almost back to full strength. At their best they have a strong midfield that wins clearances and contested football, a disciplined structure that relies heavily on team work rather than individual brilliance, and a forward line in Franklin, Roughead, and Rioli that can tear a team apart on their day.
Hawthorn showed glimpses of the form that took them to the 2008 premiership against Essendon before the break, they were tough in the contested situations, used the ball cleanly, and were playing the aggressive style that coined the phrase “unsociable football”. Lance Franklin was back at his absolute best which is something that’s been lacking and their fringe players such as Osborne and Muston stood up when the team needed them. Have they turned the corner, or are they merely beating middle of the road sides? This week should go some way to answering the question.
Western Bulldogs
WLLWW
The Bulldogs form continues to ebb and flow in 2010, disappointing performances against Essendon and Collingwood have been followed by thumping wins against a struggling Brisbane and West Coast. The balance of the team has looked better in recent weeks with the rapid development of Jarrad Grant as the lead up forward allowing Murphy to add some class and creativity in defence, Wood has added extra run to a defence that was looking a little stagnant, and with key players in Johnson and Ward starting to overcome serious injuries could this be the time the Bulldogs start to make their mark on a season that promised so much after an impressive pre-season.
Potential Ins & Outs
Hawthorn- Josh Gibson is a chance to return from a serious hamstring injury although it appears likely he will play in the VFL this week, Rhan Hooper is a chance to regain his spot, but most likely we won’t see many changes from the team the defeated Essendon by 16 points.
No change
Western Bulldogs- Callan Ward is a chance to come in for his first game of the year after overcoming a groin problem and having played 3 games at VFL Reserves and Seniors, Tom Williams may return from a slight hamstring injury suffered against Brisbane, as may Shaun Higgins who rolled an ankle on some questionable turf at Etihad against Collingwood. Sam Reid may also come into calculations having overcome off-season groin surgery, along with the potential promotion of Andrejs Everitt, Dylan Addison, and Tim Callan.
In- Ward, Williams, Higgins
Out- Stack, Eagleton, Hill.
Key Match ups
Franklin vs Lake- This contest will go a long way to deciding the outcome of the match, if Franklin gets loose and kicks a bag Hawthorn will win, but if Lake can continue to dominate Franklin the way he has in the past 3 games (including the NAB cup earlier this year) the Hawks will struggle to kick a winning score. Franklin was back to his best last week, he pushed up to the wing and dragged the other forwards with him effectively creating the old Pagans Paddock which allowed him the space to burn off opponents with his pace. He has a bigger tank than Lake and would be well advised to try and run Brian around, but as we’ve seen in recent times Franklin has continued to try and outmuscle Lake which has played into Brian’s hands.
Roughead vs Morris-
Roughead’s form has been nothing to write home about this season, last week he looked badly out of touch and even slightly disinterested at times, but you can’t take him lightly as he looms as a potential match winner should he play at his best. Morris has been solid if not spectacular against Roughead, 3cm shorter, 10kg lighter, and without the vertical leap Roughead possesses, Morris gives 100% all the time and ensures any kicks Roughead gets he earns.
Rioli vs Harbrow/Picken-
Rioli has been more style than substance in 2010, pre-season injury has impacted his fitness reducing his time in the midfield meaning he is spending more time forward. Harbrow has the pace and agility to go with Rioli but his defensive capabilities continue to remain a question mark, Harbrow did quite well in round 3 but Rioli still kicked 4. I think we may see Picken go to Rioli to play a pure lockdown role, and as we have seen in the past year and a half anyone being targeted by Liam will have to work hard for any possessions they get.
Hall vs Gilham
Much has been made of whether Hall has helped or hindered the Bulldogs structure but regardless Hall’s form has been superb all season, rarely putting in a poor performance he sits second on the Coleman medal count with 46 goals. Gilham doesn’t have the size, pace, strength, or ability to go with Hall and will be reliant on team mates coming in to double team him and also for the midfield to pressure the ball carrier to restrict the delivery to Barry. If Hall is left one out often enough he could be in for another bag similar to the 6 he kicked in round 3.
Hodge vs Picken/Higgins
Hodge will probably start in the midfield but as has been proven many times before when he’s faced with a close checking tagger he struggles to have an impact, Picken is the perfect match up, he has the endurance and physicality to make things tough for Luke. Hodge’s relief valve when struggling is to be released into the back line as a free man to go second up and sweep the ball off half back, when this occurs the best way to counter it is to position a dangerous small forward alongside Hodge to force him to be accountable and affect his freedom to zone off. Higgins (when in form) is the ideal match up, he can command the ball in dangerous areas, and if not given respect he can kick goals in quick succession, see Milburn in the 2008 prelim final. This will then free up Picken to match up Rioli.
Midfield vs Midfield
Along with the Lake Franklin duel this will go a long way to deciding the result, Hawthorn’s midfield is solid rather than brilliant, not blessed with pace in Mitchell, Sewell, and Hodge they will look to win the ball in close and feed it out to their receivers in Ellis, Bateman, Young, and Burgoyne. The Bulldogs midfield have the edge in pace with Cooney and Griffen, along with in and under types in Cross and Boyd. The People’s Beard with his crash and bash rucking style along with his unique ability to win contested possessions and fire out a handball to a team mate will be an important factor.
Where the game will be won and lost
Hawthorn’s forward line always looms as a danger, but the Bulldogs defence won’t be overwhelmed, averaging a miserly 83 points per game they rank as the second most frugal defence in 2010. Last week Hawthorn pushed their forwards right up the ground adding to their defensive zone and allowing Franklin to isolate his opponent in space. Lake doesn’t have the tank to run with Franklin so I think he’s best placed to sit back and not follow him outside of goal scoring range (60m) and instead fill the hole to prevent Hawthorn bombing the ball long into space. The Bulldogs could use a double teaming structure in Lake picking him up when inside 60m, then a more aerobically capable defender in either Williams or Everitt (should the selectors go with him instead) to pick him up around the wing.
Hawthorn is still heavily reliant on the midfield zone and press to cover up some deficiencies in their defence and lack of pace through the midfield. If the Bulldogs can work their way through the zone and deliver the football with efficiency inside 50m players like Ladson, Guerra, Murphy, and Gilham will be exposed, if they can’t and are forced to bomb the ball long under pressure Hawthorn will hurt them on the rebound. The Bulldogs are quicker and more skilful through the midfield and I think we’ll see Harbrow push up to the wing and midfield where possible depending on match ups to expose them further. Defensive pressure in the middle of the ground will be imperative, when playing well Hawthorn pressure the ball carrier as well as anyone, the Bulldogs can be hit and miss in this area, when they make it a focus they are excellent, when they feel it’s a game they should win they often drop right off, they can’t afford to be slack otherwise it will hurt them.
Verdict
Hawthorn are yet to beat anyone above 6th, some of their wins have been hard fought victories against relatively poor opposition, and they still lack strength in depth and quality defenders. The Bulldogs are also yet to take a big scalp in 2010 and can’t afford to drop winnable games such as this. Hawthorn are flat track bullies, Bulldogs with too much class.
Bulldogs by 36 points.