The End of the World

[soupman]

This is not it.

Our top 4 hopes may be over, but can we still have a good go at it from 5th or 6th? I think we can.

The last two seasons we have finished top four and lost the first week, won the second against sub par opposition and then giving the Preliminary Final a red hot crack.

By finishing 5th or 6th, we can play (and beat) the likes of Brisbane, Carlton or whomever, come into the second week of finals against a failed top four side that most probably had a much tougher game, and then potentially go into a Preliminary Final in which we should be able to give them a real run for their money.

From this point forth we should be building towards finals. Callan Ward and Shaun Higgins back in the side and with match fitness will greatly improve us. Easton Wood will only get better. Brad Johnson will hopefully be fit.

Top four isn't the be all and end all, Adelaide have done it from outside the four before and I believe we can stil do it.

[Go_Dogs]

Adelaide have done it from outside the four before and I believe we can stil do it.

Under the old final 8 system though, right? Very tough if you don't finish top 4.

[soupman]

Under the old final 8 system though, right? Very tough if you don't finish top 4.

I don't think it's impossible though. I reckon we would have lost the first game anyway as per the last two years, and this way at least we have winning momentum.

[DOG GOD]

But what we dont want Soupaman is to finish out of the 4 (now we will), win week 1 and have to go to perth to play freo in an elimination coz i know my money wouldnt be on the dogs.

Our fwd line looks as dysfunctional as i have seen it in rockets time to be honest. Has Hall really helped things, or is it just that players like Hahn, Higgins, Hill, Aker and Johnno are having pretty poor seasons overall.

We have a "fairly" har run coming up. Only a few games on a platter so it might even be difficult to make the 8...havent done the sums yet.

I'm hopeful, but losing to the Saints, Pies, bombers and Hawks by a combined 26 pts has not helped our position. Shouldve won all 4 really.

[soupman]

Well really it comes down to the whole "glass half full" thing.

I think that those close games say we are good enough, we just haven't clicked yet.

And as for the Freo trip, I think whilst that is a big possibility we could very well pull it ot of our arse.

All I'm saying is that finishing outside the 4 isn't necessarily as terrible as we may think.

[LostDoggy]

Soupa - like your style - let's all keep the faith!

[Remi Moses]

Personally the whole glass half full and positivety is all good but let's be honest cannot win it out of the top4!We've had our chances this year and we've bottled it.

[The Pie Man]

Slight tangent from the OP, but it was great to see Rocket on BTG tonight in good spirits and having a laugh - reminds me that they're not there saving lives are they?

[LostDoggy]

Also if we did finish 4th we would proabably play Geelong anyway :P

[The Coon Dog]

Also if we did finish 4th we would proabably play Geelong anyway :P

At least we'd then be assured of playing our next game in Melbourne, regardless of the Geelong result.

[Ozza]

At least we'd then be assured of playing our next game in Melbourne, regardless of the Geelong result.

Indeed tcd. We have made it extremely hard.

The thing that worries most is that when it gets hard we don't seem to have anyone that can genuinely stand up and win it. For years our guys relied on johnno to just step up and will us over the line- on Friday night you could just sense hawthorn and hodge wanted it so much more.

We get told all the time by rocket that the dogs are a spirited bunch- I just haven't seen that in the same way this year .

[LostDoggy]

Say the ladder finished as;

Geelong/Stkilda, Collingwood, Fremantle, Bulldogs

Which is highly possible. We then go onto beat the team thats 8th. Would we play the loser of Geelong/Freo or StKilda/Collingwood? would the advantage of not playing freo in Perth be the 5th or 6th position?

[The Pie Man]

Say the ladder finished as;

Geelong/Stkilda, Collingwood, Fremantle, Bulldogs

Which is highly possible. We then go onto beat the team thats 8th. Would we play the loser of Geelong/Freo or StKilda/Collingwood? would the advantage of not playing freo in Perth be the 5th or 6th position?

Loser of Geelong & Freo

Interesting question (getting way ahead of myself as usual)

Potential semi - Freo in Perth or Collingwood in Melbourne

I'd take the Pies...we couldn't lose to them 3 times in a row could we?

[Happy Days]

Are we neccesarily done?

Our run home is pretty good;

- Carlton @ Etihad
- Port @ TIO
- Freo @ Etihad
- North @ Etihad
- Adelaide @ AAMI
- Geelong @ Etihad
- Sydney @ SCG
- Essendon @ Etihad

Of these games, the only one we would think we would lose, when looking at these games in isolation, is the Geelong one. We've travelled pretty well to AAMI over the last two seasons, same goes for the SCG.

Say we win 7 out of 8, is it not feasible that Freo, having just lost their best midfielder and with tired young legs, could lose 3 of the next 8? We've said all along that we needed 7 of 9, I don't see why that changes having dropped the first one.

[The Pie Man]

^^^

It's worth looking at Freo's run home while considering this.

vs Richmond @ Etihad
vs Melb @ Subi
us
The Derby
vs North @ Etihad
vs Syd @ Subi
vs Dawks in Tas
and Carlton at home

Let's see how inuries impact them, but on current form, I reckon we fall short of them by a game.

[DOG GOD]

^^^

It's worth looking at Freo's run home while considering this.

vs Richmond @ Etihad
vs Melb @ Subi
us
The Derby
vs North @ Etihad
vs Syd @ Subi
vs Dawks in Tas
and Carlton at home

Let's see how inuries impact them, but on current form, I reckon we fall short of them by a game.

Id say Freo will win 5-6 of 8 there. I cant see us winning 7 of 8.

[Mofra]

In recent history, the top 4 teams that get the week off in September tend to play in the GF.
It is a very difficult task to play 4 games on the trot at finals intensity, and the week off appears to be vital.

[Ghost Dog]

Indeed tcd. We have made it extremely hard.

The thing that worries most is that when it gets hard we don't seem to have anyone that can genuinely stand up and win it. .

Ryan Griffen. Last game against Melbourne, in the wet. Was that not standing up and winning it? With another 10 seconds he may have done it on Friday.

[AndrewP6]

Ryan Griffen. Last game against Melbourne, in the wet. Was that not standing up and winning it? With another 10 seconds he may have done it on Friday.

But he chose not to try and shepherd the last kick.

[Ghost Dog]

True! That looked pretty poor but I was not at the game. From what others here said, the siren went when the ball was at its apex. Rocket discussed it on " Before the game". Any comments?

[AndrewP6]

True! That looked pretty poor but I was not at the game. From what others here said, the siren went when the ball was at its apex. Rocket discussed it on " Before the game". Any comments?

Haven't seen that part of the replay (couldn't bring myself to watch it) but was at the game. It kind of summed up a big part of our problem, particularly this season - lack of desperation, the fact he didn't even try. Maybe he knew the rule better than me. I had thought it was all over.

[Ghost Dog]

In recent history, the top 4 teams that get the week off in September tend to play in the GF.
It is a very difficult task to play 4 games on the trot at finals intensity, and the week off appears to be vital.

Who did you pick last week, St Kilda or Geelong?

Funny things can happen in sport. Hang in there Bulldogs

[EasternWest]

But he chose not to try and shepherd the last kick.


True! That looked pretty poor but I was not at the game. From what others here said, the siren went when the ball was at its apex. Rocket discussed it on " Before the game". Any comments?

I did say that I thought it was a pretty big brain fade from Ryan, but Eade handled it well when asked and pretty much exonerated Griffen for it.

After hearing that I have some sympathy for Griff. It's pretty easy to say "he should've" in hindsight.

[azabob]

Are we neccesarily done?

Our run home is pretty good;

- Carlton @ Etihad
- Port @ TIO
- Freo @ Etihad
- North @ Etihad
- Adelaide @ AAMI
- Geelong @ Etihad
- Sydney @ SCG
- Essendon @ Etihad

.

On paper the run looks ok,

BUT

- Carlton @ Etihad - lost to them 2007, 08, 09
- Port @ TIO - Port normally play well in Darwin
- Freo @ Etihad - Tough game, Even tougher due to the game before in darwin
- North @ Etihad - Should win. Will be physical due to last time
- Adelaide @ AAMI - Should win - but Crows are finding form
- Geelong @ Etihad
- Sydney @ SCG - Roos last game in Sydney
- Essendon @ Etihad - Last few years struggled against them and lost earlier this year

Now there is no room for error if we want top 4, and in isolation each game has its little factors which make it even tougher.

[Chicago1]

We get told all the time by rocket that the dogs are a spirited bunch- I just haven't seen that in the same way this year .

If you want to see a "spirited bunch" have a look at the Tigers team that just beat Sydney. The match was shown live here on ESPN2 and the heart shown by the Tigers players put us to shame from what I watched the other night. Where has it all gone wrong? I honestly expected us to play in the Grand Final this year. I know that's still a possibility, but then again... :(

[The Coon Dog]

If you want to see a "spirited bunch" have a look at the Tigers team that just beat Sydney. The match was shown live here on ESPN2 and the heart shown by the Tigers players put us to shame from what I watched the other night. Where has it all gone wrong? I honestly expected us to play in the Grand Final this year. I know that's still a possibility, but then again... :(

How would the Tigers have fared against Hawthorn & how would we have fared against Sydney? It's not like you're comparing apples with apples.

We lost to the most inform team in the comp at the moment by 3 points, not something I'm ashamed of.

A kick either way in both games & we win & Richmond lose. I accept that that didn't happened, but it could so easily have.

[mjp]

Richmond showed a fair bit late to fight it out - but honestly it was only the Swans' inaccuracy that kept them in it.

In games like ours (decided by less than a kick) too much gets read into the whole winning/losing thing...we would be celebrating courage and commitment had we won but the way we played would not have changed a single bit.

Hawthorn were very hard at it and we matched them for commitment and intensity all night...Franklin's ability to kick that goal from outside 50m was the difference in the end - we simply couldn't do it.

You want to look for reasons for the loss? Fine - but just as many can be found in the first 15 mins (3 goals Hawks, none to us) as in the last quarter...

[Go_Dogs]

You want to look for reasons for the loss? Fine - but just as many can be found in the first 15 mins (3 goals Hawks, none to us) as in the last quarter...

Agreed.

Saw an interesting stat the other day (prior to the Hawks game) that had us at -61 against our opponents over the first 10 minutes of matches for 2010. We are poor starters for sure.

[LostDoggy]

Looking at it closely, each time we've finished Top 4 we've lost week 1 anyhow, so the week off has never been an option for us.

Provided we don't have to go to Perth week 2, finishing 5th may not be such a bad thing.
By finishing 5th we get the loser of 1 v 4 which would be Cats or Freo at this stage - lets hope that Freo finish a bit higher which is possible.
Idealy Freo finish 3rd and lose week 1 which means, if we win week 1 we wouldn't have to go to Perth at all (potential GF meeting with Freo at the MCG possible but thats all!).

I reckon any team we meet in week 2 would be fearing a straight sets exit against us (Cats / Pies??).

[LostDoggy]

Say the ladder finished as;

Geelong/Stkilda, Collingwood, Fremantle, Bulldogs

Which is highly possible. We then go onto beat the team thats 8th. Would we play the loser of Geelong/Freo or StKilda/Collingwood? would the advantage of not playing freo in Perth be the 5th or 6th position?

5th goes on to pay loser of 1 v 4 which at this stage is probably Freo (in Perth).

[BulldogBelle]

I guess that I must be one of the few supporters who like the way we are going at the moment.

I have a feeling in my piss.

All these close losses should steel the players. Young champs coming in, old hacks going out. The players seemingly taking control over things, certain changes in playing style.

After that Hawthorn match I was as disappointed as anyone but gained confidence that we will win the premiership this year. This is the year. We will come out of the blue. Get your wallets out and put your money on the doggies.

[aker39]

- Port @ TIO - Port normally play well in Darwin



No they don't. We have thrashed them the last couple of games.

[EasternWest]

I guess that I must be one of the few supporters who like the way we are going at the moment.

I have a feeling in my piss.

All these close losses should steel the players. Young champs coming in, old hacks going out. The players seemingly taking control over things, certain changes in playing style.

After that Hawthorn match I was as disappointed as anyone but gained confidence that we will win the premiership this year. This is the year. We will come out of the blue. Get your wallets out and put your money on the doggies.

It appears JC that someone has got into your account and posted something positive :D.

Not sure I totally agree with you, but I think our effort and form has shown improvement in our last three games. I hope we can continue to improve.

And it's been my experience that feelings in your piss aren't generally good things and you should see a doctor.

[AndrewP6]

It appears JC that someone has got into your account and posted something positive :D.

Not sure I totally agree with you, but I think our effort and form has shown improvement in our last three games. I hope we can continue to improve.

And it's been my experience that feelings in your piss aren't generally good things and you should see a doctor.

:D:D:D Nice work,that's funny!

[BulldogBelle]

Originally posted by dfa4pm
And it's been my experience that feelings in your piss aren't generally good things and you should see a doctor.

Heh heh heh

[LostDoggy]

What did Eade say about the final kick on Friday?

[LostDoggy]

How would the Tigers have fared against Hawthorn & how would we have fared against Sydney? It's not like you're comparing apples with apples.

We lost to the most inform team in the comp at the moment by 3 points, not something I'm ashamed of.

A kick either way in both games & we win & Richmond lose. I accept that that didn't happened, but it could so easily have.

Spot on. Personally I think Collingwood for example would have got absolutely spanked if it was them playing Hawthorn on Friday night instead of us. Hawks probably would have rolled Geelong and Saints also. Dogs and Hawks are two very, very good teams, our ladder positions don't reflect this but I still think we will do more than just make up the numbers come September.

[The Pie Man]

If we do finish 5-8 but can maintain the contested footy we displayed on Friday, none of the top 4 will want to play us in a semi final - we just need to get cleaner when it matters.

Our semi's in 08 & 09 have been pretty comfortable wins, and I was confident prior to both nights. I don't think either of the top 4 losing sides would feel the same degree of confidence playing us the following week (think Collingwood vs Adelaide last year, even though the Pies got up)

[LostDoggy]

If we do finish 5-8 but can maintain the contested footy we displayed on Friday, none of the top 4 will want to play us in a semi final - we just need to get cleaner when it matters.

Our semi's in 08 & 09 have been pretty comfortable wins, and I was confident prior to both nights. I don't think either of the top 4 losing sides would feel the same degree of confidence playing us the following week (think Collingwood vs Adelaide last year, even though the Pies got up)

Spot on.

With the Dogs and the Hawks potentially waiting for the 'Top 4 losers' there would be some nervous teams coming into week 2 of the finals.

Sure beats previous years where 5-8 have generally been making up the numbers.

[mjp]

Spot on.

With the Dogs and the Hawks potentially waiting for the 'Top 4 losers' there would be some nervous teams coming into week 2 of the finals.

Sure beats previous years where 5-8 have generally been making up the numbers.

Not last year when Adelaide finished 5th.

There are usually 5 teams in it. It isn't the consecutive games without a break that makes it so hard to win from the bottom 4...it is the consecutive games without a LOSS.

3 game winning streaks are relatively common place. 3 game winning streaks against top eight sides somewhat scarcer...4 in a row against top 8 opponents? Very, very tough. That is why the week off becomes so important - without it, to need to play at your best (or thereabouts) for 4 consecutive weeks which has been repeatedly proven to be all but impossible.

Even in the Adelaide example from 97 they LOST their first final...only won 3 in a row. You can't do that under this finals system.

[Mantis]

Not last year when Adelaide finished 5th.

There are usually 5 teams in it. It isn't the consecutive games without a break that makes it so hard to win from the bottom 4...it is the consecutive games without a LOSS.

3 game winning streaks are relatively common place. 3 game winning streaks against top eight sides somewhat scarcer...4 in a row against top 8 opponents? Very, very tough. That is why the week off becomes so important - without it, to need to play at your best (or thereabouts) for 4 consecutive weeks which has been repeatedly proven to be all but impossible.

Even in the Adelaide example from 97 they LOST their first final...only won 3 in a row. You can't do that under this finals system.

Especially when we are 2 wins from 13 games against Geelong, St.Kilda and Collingwood over the past 2 years. Even if we do finish 4th can we beat 2 or 3 of these teams consecutively?

In many of those games we have had a chance, but those figures are fairly damning.

[LostDoggy]

We are really up against it now but isn't that the way we like it? We haven't handled being a front runner at all, now we are up the creek, just maybe we might start playing to win instead of expecting to win. I wrote us off after the West Coast game last year, a much worse loss and we came back far harder with good wins over good opposition.

[LostDoggy]

How would the Tigers have fared against Hawthorn & how would we have fared against Sydney? It's not like you're comparing apples with apples.

We lost to the most inform team in the comp at the moment by 3 points, not something I'm ashamed of.

A kick either way in both games & we win & Richmond lose. I accept that that didn't happened, but it could so easily have.

Thats the problem with us we always could have!!!

[Greystache]

Especially when we are 2 wins from 13 games against Geelong, St.Kilda and Collingwood over the past 2 years. Even if we do finish 4th can we beat 2 or 3 of these teams consecutively?

In many of those games we have had a chance, but those figures are fairly damning.

Factor in the last time we beat a top 4 team in a final was 1961, you would say the chances of beating 2 in a row to make the GF and 3 in a row to win the flag are almost zero.

[LostDoggy]

Factor in the last time we beat a top 4 team in a final was 1961, you would say the chances of beating 2 in a row to make the GF and 3 in a row to win the flag are almost zero.

WTF has 1961 got to do with anything?

While we are at it, what has any previous year got to do with anything?

If the players and staff believe in fate along those lines they might a well finish the season now.

There are 8 games and Finals to go, people!

Feel sorry for yourselves after that if it makes you feel better

[Greystache]

WTF has 1961 got to do with anything?

While we are at it, what has any previous year got to do with anything?

If the players and staff believe in fate along those lines they might a well finish the season now.

There are 8 games and Finals to go, people!

Feel sorry for yourselves after that if it makes you feel better

Are you serious champ?

We haven't beaten a top 4 team in a final in 49 years, our record in that time is 0 wins 13 losses, including a record of 0-4 in the past 2 seasons with what is essentially our current team and you don't think it's relevant?

Our best hope was to finish top 4, get beaten week 1 in our usual insipid fashion, beat the 5-8 placed team week 2, then try and pinch a win against the top 4 side in the prelim. It appears we will struggle to finish top 4 now meaning we'd have to beat a top 4 team in week 2 as well as week 3 to make the grand final, which makes it now highly unlikely, and given our recent record against the current top 4 is 2-11 it seems this team isn't capable of beating the best regularly.

I'm all for being optimistic, but not delusional.

[Happy Days]

Are you serious champ?

We haven't beaten a top 4 team in a final in 49 years, our record in that time is 0 wins 13 losses, including a record of 0-4 in the past 2 seasons with what is essentially our current team and you don't think it's relevant?

Our best hope was to finish top 4, get beaten week 1 in our usual insipid fashion, beat the 5-8 placed team week 2, then try and pinch a win against the top 4 side in the prelim. It appears we will struggle to finish top 4 now meaning we'd have to beat a top 4 team in week 2 as well as week 3 to make the grand final, which makes it now highly unlikely, and given our recent record against the current top 4 is 2-11 it seems this team isn't capable of beating the best regularly.

I'm all for being optimistic, but not delusional.

By this thinking, Richmond are going to win the flag because they did in 1980, and Essendon are unbeatable because they were in 2000.

Seriously, what does the past have to do with anything. Of all of the stats that are seen in our game, "historical" stats such as these are by far the most useless.

[mjp]

Of all of the stats that are seen in our game, "historical" stats such as these are by far the most useless.

I don't like the stats either but there are lessons in history. 1961 is a bit irrelevant to me, but finishing top 4 is very important to premiership success - no-one has won the flag without a top 4 finish since the finals system changed.

Maybe we are one out of the box, and maybe we are the once in a generation team that can buck the odds (the system??) and win from 5th-8th...but you have to admit it is a less likely starting point.

[LostDoggy]

Are you serious champ?

We haven't beaten a top 4 team in a final in 49 years, our record in that time is 0 wins 13 losses, including a record of 0-4 in the past 2 seasons with what is essentially our current team and you don't think it's relevant?

Our best hope was to finish top 4, get beaten week 1 in our usual insipid fashion, beat the 5-8 placed team week 2, then try and pinch a win against the top 4 side in the prelim. It appears we will struggle to finish top 4 now meaning we'd have to beat a top 4 team in week 2 as well as week 3 to make the grand final, which makes it now highly unlikely, and given our recent record against the current top 4 is 2-11 it seems this team isn't capable of beating the best regularly.

I'm all for being optimistic, but not delusional.

And by the time you finally get out of Secondary School Champ, you might have learnt something about statistics and relevance.

The last time we were in a GF we were Runners-up to Hawthorn (I was there - probably sat next to your grand-father). On the basis of that and being beaten by them by only 3 points on Friday and using your powers of logic, doesn't it follow we will be Runners-up to Hawthorn again this year, Champ?

And by 3 points?

[Greystache]

And by the time you finally get out of Secondary School Champ, you might have learnt something about statistics and relevance.

The last time we were in a GF we were Runners-up to Hawthorn (I was there - probably sat next to your grand-father). On the basis of that and being beaten by them by only 3 points on Friday and using your powers of logic, doesn't it follow we will be Runners-up to Hawthorn again this year, Champ?

And by 3 points?

Some strange logic right there. :rolleyes:

I'm anything but a high school student, but something they do teach in school is statistical relevance. 0-13 over a period of 49 years indicates the problem isn't with an individual or a specific team, it indicates a core problem which is engrained in the very fabric of the club, and that is they don't rise to the big occasion they crumble before it. It takes a very strong group to break such a trend, and the 0-4 record of this team indicates the trend is unlikely to broken. Only the most one eyed of supporters would agree otherwise.

Seeing as you have so much life experience you may be familiar with this-

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results" Albert Einstein

[Ghost Dog]

WTF has 1961 got to do with anything?

While we are at it, what has any previous year got to do with anything?

If the players and staff believe in fate along those lines they might a well finish the season now.

There are 8 games and Finals to go, people!

Feel sorry for yourselves after that if it makes you feel better

Post of the month. With you on that one EJ. Only one game ever exists. The one you are about to play.


Greystach:

May I ask, where is the core problem located? In the grass of the western oval? Under the turf? Something in the water down there?
Maybe it's the smell from Werribbee drifting in on the breeze.

Dogs bollocks!
This club has undergone something of a revolution in ten years. People used to tease me about us being the 'poor club'. (Essendon supporters gah! )
The club is finally on an even playing field with other clubs for the first time ever, coming about in the past 2 years. Work in progress! The transformation to a powerhouse club is almost complete * rubs hands with evil laugh*. I can understand the fatalistic view, but don't subscribe.

Geelong had a history of being 'chokers'. Collingwood also. We will have our day in the sun.

Leigh Mathews banished all streamers and Balloons from the changerooms during their last premiership in 1990. The past pollutes; is irrellevant to what is happening now.
The key is to ignore supporters and critics who point at the past and focus on the present and future because that is all you have to work with. IM most HUMBLE opinion.