It's good to be on 11 wins right now with an opportunity for 12 the way the year has gone.
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I want the current top 4 to keep on winning (except against us of course). Adelaide winning today for example will keep Port mired in the 5-8 pack, and it then puts our destiny in our own hands playing Port in a couple of weeks. The more teams as possible at the 10-11 win mark, the more spots in the bottom half of the 8 open up.
Barring a 2nd half resurrection Port well and truly soiling the bed versus the Crows.
Could be the biggest percentage drop ever at this rate.
Geelong have Tigers, Collingwood and GWS. It is feasible they could lose all three and drop out of top 4. We win all three and could slip into top 4. Sydney have Adelaide in Adelaide.
Geelong would only need to lose 2 of the 3 for us to go past them winning all 3 of our games
If Adelaide beat Essendon and St Kilda beat Melbourne next week, we'll make the 8 even if we drop a game (assuming St Kilda don't catch our percentage or they drop a game)
Good round for us. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Must beat GWS on Friday. 5 sleeps to go.....
Destiny is clearly in our hands now. I think 2 out of 3 wins gets us in.
I hope we can reproduce our absolute best next Friday and send a compelling message to the rest of the comp that we are coming.
I've got to say, that was one of the most enjoyable roots I've had in a long time.
I was over at my mum and dad's house. The whole family had a massive root together in the lounge.
Round 21
WB v GWS
Syd v Fre
Geel v Rich
Bris v GC
Ess v Adel
WCE v Carl
Melb v StK
Haw v NM
Port v Coll
Adelaide & St Kilda the big & likely ones
Top 2 is out of reach now. Most we can get is 56 points. Adelaide already have 58. GWS & Richmond have 52 and Geelong has 50. Geelong play both GWS & Richmond, and would need to win both to stop GWS & Richmond getting to 56 but would then be on 58 themselves
If we win our remaining 3 games, the highest we can finish is 3rd, and the lowest we can finish is 6th. We are currently 7th and play Port who we would go past if we beat them
To pass Sydney we need them to lose one of Freo (H), Adel (A), Carl (H) so their R22 game against Adelaide is key
To pass Geelong we need them to lose two of Rich (H), Coll (A), GWS (H), their R21 and R23 games are key
To pass Richmond we need them to lose all of Geel (A), Freo (A), StK (A)
To pass GWS we need them to lose all of WB (A), WCE (H), Geel (A)
Only 3 of those things can happen as Geelong play GWS & Richmond. If 3 happen we finish 3rd, if 2 happen we finish 4th, if 1 happens we finish 5th, if none happen we finish 6th
If we win 2 of our remaining games we get to 52 points. Adelaide, GWS & Richmond already have 52 so the highest we could finish is 4th. As far down as St Kilda can get to 52 points by winning their remaining games, however St Kilda play Melbourne next week so at least one won't get to 52, so the lowest we could finish is 10th
To pass St Kilda we need them to lose one of Melb (A), NM (H), Rich (A) OR win them all but not make up ~63 points on our percentage
To pass Melbourne we need them to lose one of StK (H), BL (H), Coll (A), R21 v StK is key
To pass West Coast we need them to lose one of Carl (H), GWS (A), Adel (H), R22 v GWS is key
To pass Essendon we need them to lose one of Adel (H), GC (A), Freo (H), R21 v Adel is key
To pass Sydney we need them to lose two of Freo (H), Adel (A), Carl (H), would need an upset in R21 or R23
To pass Port Adelaide we need them to lose two of Coll (H), WB (A), GC (H), would need an upset in R21 or R23
To pass Geelong we need them to lose all of Rich (H), Coll (A), GWS (H)
At least 1 of those things must happen with St Kilda playing Melbourne. If all 7 happen we finish 4th, if 6 happen we finish 5th, if 5 happen we finish 6th, if 4 happen we finish 7th, if 3 happen we finish 8th, if 2 happen we finish 9th, if 1 happens we finish 10th
Alright. Now Quantum Mechanics please. :D