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Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
Anyone who pays any attention to my rambling thoughts know I'm dead against a strategy of trading away future draft picks, especially first rounders.
Port Adelaide traded this year's second rounder to get Dixon. Which looks like yet another juicy pick for GCS if their poor form continues.
Collingwood offered up this year's first rounder for Treloar, and this year's second rounder for Aish. If their season falls of a cliff, and I hope it does, they could have given away pick 3-5 and 21-23. In addition to picks 7 and 25 last year. If we split the difference and say pick 4 and 22 this year. That's picks 4, 7, 22 & 25 for Treloar & Aish and are locked out top draftees if no other trades get them back in. That's a much, much bigger potential disaster than resigning Buckley 5 weeks ago. Although GWS & Brisbane must be feeling a bit better now, and much happier if their form continues.
Geelong will probably break even in the Henderson first rounder for this year.
But I really, really don't like the strategy and really hope we don't go down this path. If you get it wrong, it could cripple the club worse than potential gain.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
BT, whilst I don't necessarily like a hard and fast rule with trading or list management I tend to think your position on not trading future picks is very close to the mark. It would take a big deal for me to be comfortable with it.
Just to expand on this a bit further I'd like to know your views on how much influence a coach should have on trading away future picks?
My concern would be if a coach who knows he is under some pressure to get results would look towards a quick fix by paying overs for an established star. This could very well be in his best interest but not necessarily that of the clubs.
I could also see how an experienced coach could easily influence a new list or recruiting manager.
Thankfully the AFL has some safeguards and limits on what a club could trade but like you I'd prefer that we don't consider it as regular option.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
Disagree, if you never did anything that affected list management in future years everyone would be on 1 year contracts
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
GVGjr
BT, whilst I don't necessarily like a hard and fast rule with trading or list management I tend to think your position on not trading future picks is very close to the mark. It would take a big deal for me to be comfortable with it.
Just to expand on this a bit further I'd like to know your views on how much influence a coach should have on trading away future picks?
My concern would be if a coach who knows he is under some pressure to get results would look towards a quick fix by paying overs for an established star. This could very well be in his best interest but not necessarily that of the clubs.
I could also see how an experienced coach could easily influence a new list or recruiting manager.
Thankfully the AFL has some safeguards and limits on what a club could trade but like you I'd prefer that we don't consider it as regular option.
That's a real web of issues G. We saw Mick Malthouse get Liam Jones a million bucks, Tutt to walk out and recruit a range of mid range players for top picks (Jeaksch etc). Plus getting Daisy $4,000,000 for a non contending club. I'd think to save his skin he'd have traded every possible pick the club had if he was at the club still. There in lies so many problems like you tease out. That's why I'd have a hard and fast rule of never ever doing it, with a tiny asterisk. Perhaps an internal override can exist only if all five of the president, CEO, coach, list manager and recruiter ALL agree.
The fall out like Collingwood face could mean they can't rebuild properly, whoever they realise they need to rebuild. If they stay down this should be front and centre if it gets mentioned at our club. As for the AFL, if they want to allow clubs to do stupid things in the trade period that hurt them long term so be it. I just hope we're not one of them.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
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Originally Posted by
boydogs
Disagree, if you never did anything that affected list management in future years everyone would be on 1 year contracts
Collingwood would've thought in their minds that they we giving up 18 & 36 (winning the trade). They could give up 4 & 22 (major, serious loss). That's betting the farm and losing. Plus being without top draftees for two years. I don't want to be in that class of arrogant recklessness.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
Depends on what you want and need. You have to give up something good to get something good. I'm not adverse to giving up picks provided we get the right player(s) that suits our needs and I would only do it when we are a genuine premiership threat.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
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Originally Posted by
1eyedog
Depends on what you want and need. You have to give up something good to get something good. I'm not adverse to giving up picks provided we get the right player(s) that suits our needs and I would only do it when we are a genuine premiership threat.
What if you fall off the perch the following year (ala Port & Collingwood) and you estimated giving up picking 15 for an equivalent player, but then go bust, and then you give up pick 4. That's not about giving good for getting good isn't it? That's a punt of a Stringer or Bontempelli type who you can rebuild around if it doesn't go well. If Collingwood end up giving up picks 4 or 5 this year I'm sure every Collingwood member will follow the progress of the player picked up with that pick until they retire.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
So if Collingwood's season goes tits up they haven't even got decent draft picks to play for? There is no upside for them at all? Whatsoever? They can't even say "oh yeah the lower the better"
The position they attain at the end of the season will be a complete true and accurate reflection of how shit they are.
The reaction of the toothless masses could be fun.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
bulldogtragic
What if you fall off the perch the following year (ala Port & Collingwood) and you estimated giving up picking 15 for an equivalent player, but then go bust, and then you give up pick 4. That's not about giving good for getting good isn't it? That's a punt of a Stringer or Bontempelli type who you can rebuild around if it doesn't go well. If Collingwood end up giving up picks 4 or 5 this year I'm sure every Collingwood member will follow the progress of the player picked up with that pick until they retire.
There's a fair amount of knowing in who you choose to target for such a high draft pick though surely? A Treloar or an Aish are safeish picks, as safe as any other top 10 I think and both are young. I think the Pies will benefit that they've had 2 years of preseasons under their belts. The really dangerous ground is picking up at 26+ year old for a top 10 and you fall off the perch the following year. They turn 27 and you enter a 3-4 year rebuild. Not a good scenario.
You can just as easily pick a Cale Morton, Bryce Gibbs, Mitch Thorp or dare I say it a Jarrad Grant, ouch.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
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Originally Posted by
1eyedog
There's a fair amount of knowing in who you choose to target for such a high draft pick though surely? A Treloar or an Aish are safeish picks, as safe as any other top 10 I think and both are young. I think the Pies will benefit that they've had 2 years of preseasons under their belts. The really dangerous ground is picking up at 26+ year old for a top 10 and you fall off the perch the following year. They turn 27 and you enter a 3-4 year rebuild. Not a good scenario.
You can just as easily pick a Cale Morton, Bryce Gibbs, Mitch Thorp or dare I say it a Jarrad Grant, ouch.
But the full trade for Aish & Treloar at the current position is picks 4, 7, 22 & 25 over two years and no picks in the first two rounds for two years (unless they trade back in). That's a badly losing, overpaying overall trade in my estimation.
The pies banked on these guys costing pick 14 & 32 this year, not 4 & 22. It's a huge gamble to trade away future picks and they look like losing big time.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
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Originally Posted by
bulldogtragic
Collingwood would've thought in their minds that they we giving up 18 & 36 (winning the trade). They could give up 4 & 22 (major, serious loss). That's betting the farm and losing. Plus being without top draftees for two years. I don't want to be in that class of arrogant recklessness.
Every decision has its risks. Perhaps without trading future picks Treloar never gets to the club at all, but now that he has wins the brownlow. Maybe Tom Boyd wins the Coleman and is the missing ingredient in our flag push, or maybe he stuffs our salary cap for 7 years
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
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Originally Posted by
boydogs
Every decision has its risks. Perhaps without trading future picks Treloar never gets to the club at all, but now that he has wins the brownlow. Maybe Tom Boyd wins the Coleman and is the missing ingredient in our flag push, or maybe he stuffs our salary cap for 7 years
Driving a car has risk, driving a car at 200km with your eyes shut is a big risk. Potentially losing picks 4, 7, 22 & 25 for Treloar & Aish is an horrific outcome because they didn't/refused to trade players out, but signed up more like Jeremy Howe too. They were forced by circumstance to trade their future away. Gryphone walked out under contract, and we traded to get the former no. 1 draft pick to walk from his contract. Paying the most talented tall kid money to get his services is a long way off screwing your future.
For instance, Carlton got Chris Judd for a couple of very high picks and Josh Kennedy. Judd won a Brownlow, yet Carlton are a disgrace and West Coast played in the Grand Final. Why bet your future draft picks when there's no need? You can't use the pick, nor trade up, nor trade down, nor use it on a player trade in that year if you've given it away, especially for way under market value as Collingwood look likely to do.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
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Originally Posted by
bulldogtragic
But the full trade for Aish & Treloar at the current position is picks 4, 7, 22 & 25 over two years and no picks in the first two rounds for two years (unless they trade back in). That's a badly losing, overpaying overall trade in my estimation.
The pies banked on these guys costing pick 14 & 32 this year, not 4 & 22. It's a huge gamble to trade away future picks and they look like losing big time.
You're probably right. I agree it's a lot to give up and given our success in the 20s it makes me think that it is way overs even if they do have stellar careers. FWIW I think Treloar will be a fantastic player for them, he's been on show for while and Collingwood like the preview. Like I said it's a lot to give up but I think they're pretty ok with what they're getting.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
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Originally Posted by
1eyedog
You're probably right. I agree it's a lot to give up and given our success in the 20s it makes me think that it is way overs even if they do have stellar careers. FWIW I think Treloar will be a fantastic player for them. The benefit of getting a Treloar is that you just know he's going to be a player. But yeah, agreed, its a lot to pay for that preview.
Treloar is a gun, no doubt. But let's use Ward & Harbrow as names instead of Treloar and Aish (similar sorts in a sense, one gun, one good runner with foot skills). We got picks 6 & 18. If we were offered picks 4, 7, 22 & 25 for them we'd sign, head down to the nearest pub and put a wad of $100 notes on the bar. Carlton over payed for a gun (Judd) and have never really recovered because of involving Kennedy too. Collingwood might just follow suit. I just think there's a real lesson to be learnt here about gambling future picks, gambling future full stop.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
bulldogtragic
Driving a car has risk, driving a car at 200km with your eyes shut is a big risk. Potentially losing picks 4, 7, 22 & 25 for Treloar & Aish is an horrific outcome because they didn't/refused to trade players out, but signed up more like Jeremy Howe too. They were forced by circumstance to trade their future away. Gryphone walked out under contract, and we traded to get the former no. 1 draft pick to walk from his contract. Paying the most talented tall kid money to get his services is a long way off screwing your future.
For instance, Carlton got Chris Judd for a couple of very high picks and Josh Kennedy. Judd won a Brownlow, yet Carlton are a disgrace and West Coast played in the Grand Final. Why bet your future draft picks when there's no need? You can't use the pick, nor trade up, nor trade down, nor use it on a player trade in that year if you've given it away, especially for way under market value as Collingwood look likely to do.
I don't think you've made the case for Carlton & Collingwood losing those trades, let alone the involvement of low or future picks being the reasoning. West Coast probably won the Judd trade but more from getting Kennedy than the draft picks involved. Treloar has started really well and Aish is getting games, too early to call that 4 weeks in
We've already traded our 2016 3rd round pick in the pick 11 downgrade for Collins & Dunkley. If we never, ever traded away future draft picks, one of them wouldn't be on our list
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
I think that you trade the future with caution, especially where the future value is very uncertain. That's not to say you don't do it. If the Dogs were on the cusp of a GF and were a Barry Hall - trading the 2008 pick in 2007 to get Barry which wins you a flag in 08 and 09 is exactly what you should be doing - yes you are stuffed going forward, if the time is now you do it.
The Pies big issue is that they have completely misread their list - top up players aren't going to get them to the big dance any time soon.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
Great thread. It is critical for clubs to know exactly where they are at in their development cycle, otherwise the trading of future picks can be a disaster waiting to happen.
With those players in their mid to late 20's who are 'name' players, I'd much prefer to go the free agency route to ensure future talent is still coming through to the club. Charlie Dixon is a classic case of over-paying for a player in this age bracket who has never shown consistency deserving of the eventual draft pick investment - it also shows Port having an inflated opinion of their list. Dixon reminds me of Jade Rawlings in terms of the outlay needed to secure the services of a player who has done very little in the position they were secured for.
Treloar is a slightly different case in that his talent level and age profile would justify the investment of future picks, but only if the club knows where they are at in their development cycle. Clearly Collingwood think they are contending for top 4 (and top 8 at the very least) this year, which would justify the cost outlay to secure Treloar's services. That value proposition diminishes rapidly if they finish 13th-16th.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
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Originally Posted by
FrediKanoute
The Pies big issue is that they have completely misread their list - top up players aren't going to get them to the big dance any time soon.
Tbf Treloar and Aish are as much long term investments as they are players for now. It isn't like Collingwood loaded up on 30 year olds North style.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
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Originally Posted by
Sedat
Great thread. It is critical for clubs to know exactly where they are at in their development cycle, otherwise the trading of future picks can be a disaster waiting to happen.
With those players in their mid to late 20's who are 'name' players, I'd much prefer to go the free agency route to ensure future talent is still coming through to the club. Charlie Dixon is a classic case of over-paying for a player in this age bracket who has never shown consistency deserving of the eventual draft pick investment - it also shows Port having an inflated opinion of their list. Dixon reminds me of Jade Rawlings in terms of the outlay needed to secure the services of a player who has done very little in the position they were secured for.
Treloar is a slightly different case in that his talent level and age profile would justify the investment of future picks, but only if the club knows where they are at in their development cycle. Clearly Collingwood think they are contending for top 4 (and top 8 at the very least) this year, which would justify the cost outlay to secure Treloar's services. That value proposition diminishes rapidly if they finish 13th-16th.
I'm not sure Collingwood believe they are top 4. I think Bucks is a realist and knows he needs to get them to the finals but he also realises they have a young list and need to plan for life post Swan (32) and Pendlebury (28). Collingwood believe that Treloar will be an out and out gun and paid overs to get him, plenty of teams do that. Aish could be anything as well and was expected to go around 4-6 in the draft. If I was a Collingwood supporter I wouldn't be unhappy getting Treloar and Aish for what they gave up, at least they've got two players who are young, gifted and will come through the system at an age profile inline with a large percentage of their list. There are plenty of misses in the 20s as well.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
1eyedog
I'm not sure Collingwood believe they are top 4. I think Bucks is a realist and knows he needs to get them to the finals but he also realises they have a young list and need to plan for life post Swan (32) and Pendlebury (28). Collingwood believe that Treloar will be an out and out gun and paid overs to get him, plenty of teams do that. Aish could be anything as well and was expected to go around 4-6 in the draft. If I was a Collingwood supporter I wouldn't be unhappy getting Treloar and Aish for what they gave up, at least they've got two players who are young, gifted and will come through the system at an age profile inline with a large percentage of their list. There are plenty of misses in the 20s as well.
Pert was saying a March that they believe they are are top 4 side and expect to snag a flag over the next 3 seasons.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
Question - is there any protection that can be placed on the traded future picks? Eg, saying that you'll trade a "future pick" without a specified year, but rather your next first round pick that falls outside of the top 10?
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
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Originally Posted by
Happy Days
Question - is there any protection that can be placed on the traded future picks? Eg, saying that you'll trade a "future pick" without a specified year, but rather your next first round pick that falls outside of the top 10?
I'm pretty sure at this stage it's only the following years draft picks.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
chef
Pert was saying a March that they believe they are are top 4 side and expect to snag a flag over the next 3 seasons.
Not the first time a senior football manager / CEO / President has gone off at the mouth prior to the commencement of the season. If they believe that they're delusional. If they believe that Treloar and Aish will be the difference between finals / no finals they are insane. I think they could be top 4 in 3 years but with the exception of Moore they're lacking in the big man department.
They'll also need Scharenberg and Reid to stay on the park.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
Collingwood have to say the occasional stupid thing or make the odd outrageous statement because their supporters demand it. I have no doubt that Pert was just preaching to the masses, he knows that hey aren't in contention for at least a couple of years but their supporter base don't want to hear it. Whether it's the right thing to be giving people false hope is open to question but it's only Collingwood supporters. If they knew anything about football then they wouldn't be barracking for Collingwood...
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
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Originally Posted by
Twodogs
Collingwood have to say the occasional stupid thing or make the odd outrageous statement because their supporters demand it. I have no doubt that Pert was just preaching to the masses, he knows that hey aren't in contention for at least a couple of years but their supporter base don't want to hear it. Whether it's the right thing to be giving people false hope is open to question but it's only Collingwood supporters. If they knew anything about football then they wouldn't be barracking for Collingwood...
I reckon they genuinely thought they were in with a shot at top 4 this year - they have spent the last couple of years shedding the older players and stockpiling young talent and made fast starts in both 2014 and 2015 before falling in a hole. Those years were their '1 step back' years and 2016 was going to be their '2 steps forward' year. Where they've come unstuck is that they overrated players who performed well in a small sample size (eg: Crisp in 2015, Greenwood for Norf in 2014), they overrated the talent of the youth on their list (eg: De Goey, Oxley, Maynard but they've all still got time to come good), they missed some howlers at the top end of the draft (Scharenberg, Freeman) and they've overrated the capacity of older players to rediscover lost form (Cloke).
They also haven't planned for the rule changes, and are painfully light on for leg speed and kicking skills (Freeman would have helped here but was always injured and is now at St Kilda). The lower rotations have hurt them - this was a great strength of theirs previously with the likes of Swan who could run redline in short bursts. All adds up to their current predicament, where they still use a 30yo Pendles to fill every hole on the ground - he's a gun but he isn't going to get better or quicker.
Oh, and Bucks may well not be able to coach. Wasn't a mistake to move Malthouse on, but to replace him with someone unproven and without adequate experience at multiple clubs or coaching his own side was a big error of judgement.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Twodogs
Collingwood have to say the occasional stupid thing or make the odd outrageous statement because their supporters demand it. I have no doubt that Pert was just preaching to the masses, he knows that hey aren't in contention for at least a couple of years but their supporter base don't want to hear it. Whether it's the right thing to be giving people false hope is open to question but it's only Collingwood supporters. If they knew anything about football then they wouldn't be barracking for Collingwood...
Smorgo did the same thing a few years back.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
Gordon posed the question at the bulldogs family day this year......"Is this the best bulldogs list ever?"
Presidents talk the club up.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
looks like the afl journo's are making use of forums for their work again
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-04-1...or-giant-draft
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
bulldogsthru&thru
Man I/we should copyright my threads. They could at least recognise WOOF.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
bulldogsthru&thru
Hi Peter.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
bulldogtragic
Man I/we should copyright my threads. They could at least recognise WOOF.
Man I/we should copyright my/our threads.:)
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
bulldogtragic
Man I/we should copyright my threads. They could at least recognise WOOF.
These days I put on my tax return- Banking Strategist/Freelance writer for Herald-Sun, The Age, AFL.com.au
There's a couple of journalists who are well know parasites of other people ideas on footy forums.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
On topic it's too simplistic to say you should never trade future picks. In fact the perceived value of draft picks far outweighs the value of players once selected.
Look at some of the recent high picks, Tom Boyd was unanimous pick #1, now you have "experts" saying you wouldn't trade a valuable first round pick for him. When Melbourne gave up pick 2 for pick 9 and Dom Tyson they were criticized for giving up a certain superstar in pick 2 for pick 9 and some no name dud, ignoring completely that Tyson was the guaranteed superstar you wouldn't lose by giving up pick 3 only 3 years earlier. Aish was supposed to be the player you'd give up a gun for to get an early enough pick snare him, then 2 years later isn't worth 2 second round picks.
Using our club, we could've traded our future first round pick every year from 2005 to 2008 and been in no danger of missing out on a good player in doing so. Draft picks are only as valuable as the selection you make with them, and often that selection doesn't work out.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Greystache
On topic it's too simplistic to say you should never trade future picks. In fact the perceived value of draft picks far outweighs the value of players once selected.
Look at some of the recent high picks, Tom Boyd was unanimous pick #1, now you have "experts" saying you wouldn't trade a valuable first round pick for him. When Melbourne gave up pick 2 for pick 9 and Dom Tyson they were criticized for giving up a certain superstar in pick 2 for pick 9 and some no name dud, ignoring completely that Tyson was the guaranteed superstar you wouldn't lose by giving up pick 3 only 3 years earlier. Aish was supposed to be the player you'd give up a gun for to get an early enough pick snare him, then 2 years later isn't worth 2 second round picks.
Using our club, we could've traded our future first round pick every year from 2005 to 2008 and been in no danger of missing out on a good player in doing so. Draft picks are only as valuable as the selection you make with them, and often that selection doesn't work out.
The way we've been going I'd be hesitant to trade pick 35 for anyone short of Buddy
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Sedat
Double post
Quoted for truth!
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
Good thread, and it poses a question that in my view won't be answered for a few years, and then not answered again for another few.
Teams which make bold decision like the Pies did need to be prepared to offer up something reasonable in the forward year for trade to find themselves in the late first round or early second round if they want to keep their lists improving. I guess that means just like any recruiting strategy, giving away forward picks needs to be viewed as part of a long term recruitment strategy. Due to their age Aish and Treloar weren't going to pay immediate dividends and just like us, having them develop with other young players developing is the real pay off.
I always think predictions on form, aside from a few clearly pox teams, this early in the season are irrelevant. Collingwood in bad form attracts the same level of hyperbole as Collingwood in good form and after four rounds this is no different.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
I'm not addressing the OP strictly, but on Collingwood, they are on track to have now given up picks 5 & 23 this year (7 & 26 last year for Treloar & Aish). Treloar now looks to have cost picks 5 & 7. I think that makes this trade the most expensive from a pick/player perspective behind only The Judd Deal.
That's a really huge impediment and hit for them being able to rebuild effectively. GWS get another top 5 picks from Collingwood, plus probably a first rounder for McCarthy, plus their natural first rounder and any other decent trades. That's up to another 4 first rounders for GWS this year.
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Re: Why we should never, ever trade away future draft picks...
That's turned into a silly price to pay for Trealor. I rate Trealor but not two first round picks worth. That's Judd at his peak price.