Read an interesting article yesterday about the changes in the top 8 from one year to the next:
AFL 2019 preview: What history tells us about who will move into and drop out of the top eight
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Since the introduction of the top eight in 1994, an average of 2.8 teams have dropped out of the finals places from season to season.
It’s a pretty tight range; there has never been fewer than two changes, while there have been four changes three times.
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It doesn’t happen every single year, but on average, you can expect one team to go from outside the eight one season to inside the top four the next.
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The teams that finish fifth and sixth in one year are most likely to drop out of the eight the next year; but eighth and seventh are very close behind.
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While teams that make the top four one year are overall unlikely to drop out of the top eight the next year, in two out of every three seasons under this finals format, at least one has.