The Run Home Rounds 17-23 2019
With 7 rounds to go here is an analysis on the run down to the finals for the remaining contenders. In ladder order at the completion of round 16
1. Geelong 12/3
Draw: Saints (H) Hawks (MCG) Swans (A) Freo (A) Roos (H) Lions (A) Carl (H)
Medical: No major long term injuries. Cockatoo soon to resume
Recent form: have lost 2 of their last 3 to teams fighting for a finals spot, Port and the mighty & brilliant Bulldogs.
Only play 1 current top 8 side, the Lions at the Gabba, on the run home. They have a relatively soft draw although 3 interstate away games against teams still in contention could ask a few questions of them. I think they have a soft underbelly so it wouldn’t surprise me if they drop a few. But with this draw and easily the best percentage expect them to still finish on top or at least top 2. Yuk!
2. West Coast Eagles 11/4
Draw: Coll (H) Melb (A) North (H) Carl (A) Adel (H) Rich (A) Hawks (H)
Medical: Duggan & Vardy out for the medium term. Venables uncertain.
Recent form: have won 8 of their last 9
They are starting to look ominous and are the team to beat. They play 3 of the current top 8. Two of them, Pies & Crows, are in questionable form. The rest won’t give them nightmares. Natanui is back. Top 2 for sure. Unless the Bulldogs put the 2016 band back together then they will need thick padding for their backsides.
3. Collingwood 10/5
Draw: WCE (A) GWS (A) Rich (H) Suns (H) Melb (MCG) Adel (A) Ess (H)
Medical: Howe, Langdon, Wells, Beams, Reid & Dunn are on the indefinite/unavailable list.
Recent form: have lost 3 of their last 5 to teams contending (Freo, North, Hawks)
The next 3 rounds will probably dictate their prospects as they play top 6 teams, 2 of them interstate. Then they face the Crows away & meet 2 other rival teams. They have injury & form worries. Will be tough to hang on to a top 4 spot. BTW! Who fell asleep at the AFL to give them 3 away games in the last part of the season? Whoever he is, he’s a dead man walking if they fail.
4. Brisbane 10/5
Draw: Port (A) North (H) Hawks (A) Dogs (H) Suns (H) Cats (H) Rich (A)
Medical: practically a clean bill of health (Dogs! Hire the guy responsible)
Recent form: have won 4 from their last 5. The one loss was to Carlton but made a statement by beating GWS away last round. (loved it, I had an extra beer!)
Chris Fagan has brought the Hawthorn intel to Brisbane. This team of youthful exuberance, are firing well. They have no injuries and ready to play finals again. They have a challenging draw for an inexperienced finals team but on current form should hold their ground. If they swap their jumpers for the brown and yellow vertical stripes they will win the premiership.
5. GWS 9/6
Draw: Rich (A) Coll (H) Port (A) Swans (H) Hawks (H) Dogs (H) Suns (A)
Medical: Ward is out for the season. Kelly, De Boer and Patton are out for at least a few weeks. Several fringe players are out likewise. Hard to find this info. Perhaps they want us to think everyone is fit and the sky is orange. Pewk!
Recent form: Have lost 3 of their last 4 (Adel, Ess, Lions). Isn’t that great?
Having had to go firstly to the Pies website for info, I then had to endure going to the website of these flogs to analyse their prospects for this year. The things I do for you people! Don’t you love the cushy draw to finish their season of 3 home games followed by a weekend in the sun their Dad gave them? I hate them & so should you.
6. Richmond 9/6
Draw: GWS (H) Port (H) Coll (MCG) Melb (MCG) Carl (H) WCE (H) Lions (H)
Medical: Rance for the season is the big one. Nankervis should come back.
Recent form: Have won their last 2 to easy beats but lost previous 3 to contenders.
Have a tough run home playing 5 of their last 7 games v teams currently in the 8. This includes 3 of the top 4 as it stands. They will be comforted by the fact that all their remaining games are at the MCG. Isn't that nice of the AFL?
7. Port 8/7
Draw: Lions (H) Rich (A) GWS (H) Ess (A) Swans (H) North (A) Freo (H)
Medical: Harder to find than GWS injury list.
Recent form: they just seem to go WLWLWLWLWL
First thing I noticed when I went to the Port site was an article about how their youngsters had re-signed. There is a pic of these youngsters with their signatures emblazoned on their photos but it looks more like pre school scrawl. Do youngsters know how to write anymore or is this what happens when you go to Port? They have 3 tough games coming up against top 6 sides followed by games vs teams that could still be in contention. Won’t be easy for these pre-schoolers
8. Adelaide 8/7
Draw: Suns (A) Ess (H) Carl (A) Saints (H) WCE (A) Coll (H) Dogs (A)
Medical: Doedee (season) & Lynch for the short term.
Recent form: lost last 2 badly but had 3 good wins in a row prior.
They have 4 very winnable games coming up which should set them up for a finals berth as they could go to 12/7. Finish with 3 tough assignments. If they don’t make it it’s there own fault!
9. Essendon 8/7
Draw: North (H) Crows (A) Suns (A) Port (H) Dogs (H) Freo (A) Coll (MCG)
Medical: Daniher & Bellchambers are long term
Recent form: have won 4 of their last 5
Only play 1 top 4 team on the run home. Most other games are against middle tier teams. Not a scary draw especially if any of the middle tier teams drop off. This week’s game v North could be defining. I won't be happy if they make the finals, just saying.
10. North Melb 7/8
Draw: Ess (A) Lions (A) WCE (A) Hawks (H) Cats (A) Port (H) Melb (Tas)
Medical: Hall & Jacobs headline a lengthy list of players out indefinitely. Higgins will miss a few.
Recent form: have won 5 of their past 6
Have been in sparkling form since they got rid of their coach. They have a tough run home though starting with Bombers this week and play 3 of the top 4 sides. They have a lengthy injury list so their depth will be tested. If they make it to the finals it could be the story of the season.
11. Fremantle 7/8
Draw: Hawks (A) Swans (H) Dogs (A) Cats (H) Saints (H) Ess (H) Port (A)
Medical: I had to watch a video for this info. I’m not that dedicated!
Recent form: Have lost their past 3 games incl stinkers v Melb & Carlton
The draw isn’t unkind to them but they seem to be unkind to themselves. Freo are weird. They will probably beat us coz that’s what they do.
12. Bulldogs 7/8
Draw: Melb (H) Saints (Marvel) Freo (H) Lions (A) Ess (H) GWS (A) Crows (H)
Medical: Wallis & Morris are back in VFL, Libba is close, Daniel a few weeks away
Recent form: we have won 3 of our last 4
The great wins v Cats & Port have set us up for possibly a thrilling finish to the season. We have 5 very winnable games & our list is in good shape. Tough away games to Lions & GWS could be defining and we need to boost our percentage. Smashing Melb this week by 140 points will help!
The following teams still have a mathematical chance
13. Hawthorn 6/9
Draw: Freo (H) Cats (MCG) Lions (H) North (A) GWS (A) Suns (H) WCE (A)
As they say “No Wingard, No Hawthorn!” Also no Mitchell & Roughead is old.
14. Sydney 6/9
Draw: Carl (H) Freo (A) Cats (H) GWS (A) Port (A) Melb (A) Saints (H)
They should play Allir Allir at Full forward
15. Saints 6/9
Draw: Cats (H) Dogs (A) Melb (H) Crows (A) Freo (H) Carl (A) Swans (A)
It all depends on when they decide to get rid of their coach!
16. Melbourne 5/10
Draw: Dogs (A) WCE (H) Saints (A) Rich (H) Coll (H) Swans (H) North (A)
It all could depend on when they decide to get rid of their coach! They should swap coaches with the Saints.
Re: The Run Home Rounds 17-23 2019
Great stuff Doc. I'm just about to go out for the day but I will reply with some analysis when I get back.
Re: The Run Home Rounds 17-23 2019
That’s a bloody intelligent post with heartfelt giggles along the way. Such an interesting run home for all, if we navigate the next three as we should and get 2 of the remaining four... well it seems we only do fairytales.. Flag from 8th? Maybe 9th if Essendum can do something.. dum.
Geelong and west coast top 2 will make a difficult assignment for any other team to get to the GF.
Re: The Run Home Rounds 17-23 2019
I really appreciate the work you put into this. And the pithy comments 're opposition teams. Thanks.
Re: The Run Home Rounds 17-23 2019
We have to take one of Port's (7th) or the Cow's (8th) spot. Port have the slightly harder run home but it might even come down to round 23 at the Rat against the Cow's that decides it. Richmond play all remaining games at the MCG? Interesting. Need to win the next three first obviously then we'll be in a far more informed position to assess whether we'll can have a crack at finals.
Of course we could just win all of them to guarantee it.
Re: The Run Home Rounds 17-23 2019
I suspect we will play off against the Crows for a spot in the 8 in the final round.
Would be glorious to beat them and cement a spot.
Re: The Run Home Rounds 17-23 2019
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Go_Dogs
I suspect we will play off against the Crows for a spot in the 8 in the final round.
Would be glorious to beat them and cement a spot.
We simply must win that game and pants them in the process.
Re: The Run Home Rounds 17-23 2019
[QUOTE=Would be glorious to beat them and cement a spot.[/QUOTE]
It will be.......glorious to beat them and cement a spot.
Re: The Run Home Rounds 17-23 2019
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Go_Dogs
I suspect we will play off against the Crows for a spot in the 8 in the final round.
Would be glorious to beat them and cement a spot.
I wish the AFL wouldn't stuff around with the last round, considering every one gets the week off.
Re: The Run Home Rounds 17-23 2019
Quote:
Originally Posted by
bornadog
I wish the AFL wouldn't stuff around with the last round, considering every one gets the week off.
Yes no need now for a floating fixture with the week off before the start of the final series.
Re: The Run Home Rounds 17-23 2019
Great post mate, really good read.
It’s a real shame someone will get promoted rather that fired for putting the tigers last 7 games at the G.
So much horses*** about equalisation.
Re: The Run Home Rounds 17-23 2019
This is an update from OP.
So with now only 6 rounds to go here is an analysis on the run down to the finals for the remaining contenders. In ladder order at the completion of round 17.
1. Geelong 13/3
Draw: Hawks (MCG) Swans (A) Freo (A) Roos (H) Lions (A) Carl (H)
Medical: Apparently Ablett limped off for 10 minutes, poor bloke.
Recent form: they are doing a Port and going WLWL. Has Dalhaus kicked a goal yet?
Only play 1 current top 8 side, the fire breathing Robinsons, at the Gabba on the run home. Are now 2 games & healthy percentage clear on top. But the Dogs exposed all their weaknesses!
2. Collingwood 11/5
Draw: GWS (A) Rich (H) Suns (H) Melb (MCG) Adel (A) Ess (H)
Medical: Moore has done a hammy. Pendlebury a finger. Langdon, Wells, Beams, Reid & Dunn are on the indefinite/unavailable list. Might get Howe & Adams back.
Recent form: big win away over WCE last start. Indifferent form before that
Two big games coming up to determine if they are a genuine top 4 team. I’m still scratching my head as to how they ended up with 3 interstate away games in the last 7 rounds. Yet Richmond finished with 7 home games. Seriously heads are going to roll.
3. Brisbane 11/5
Draw: North (H) Hawks (A) Dogs (H) Suns (H) Cats (H) Rich (A)
Medical: Hipwood TBC. Expecting Adams here at any minute.
Recent form: have won 5 from their last 6.
On fire the Lions and playing like a top 4 side. They could even afford to rest Hodge. Who would have thought that not so long ago!
4. West Coast Eagles 11/5
Draw: Melb (A) North (H) Carl (A) Adel (H) Rich (A) Hawks (H)
Medical: Natanui possibly for the season. Duggan & Vardy out for the medium term. Venables uncertain.
Recent form: Slipped up at home v Pies last start but won 8 of their previous 9
Despite dropping from 2nd to 4th they are still the team to beat unless Natanui is unable to restrain his friendly fire. He collided with McGovern and caused him discomfort. That’s what the report on the AFL site said.
5. Richmond 10/6
Draw: Port (H) Coll (MCG) Melb (MCG) Carl (H) WCE (H) Lions (H)
Medical: Rance (season). Nankervis should come back.
Recent form: Starting to flex their muscle. Have won their last 3.
Still play 3 of the top 4 as it stands but they are all at the MCG. Who said the AFL aren’t nice? Collingwood that’s who!
6. GWS 9/7
Draw: Coll (H) Port (A) Swans (H) Hawks (H) Dogs (H) Suns (A)
Medical: Ward & now maybe Coniglio for the season. Kelly, De Boer and Patton are out for at least a few weeks.
Recent form: Have lost 4 of their last 5. That’s even better than last week when I reported they had lost 3 of their last 4.
Are the walls crumbling down? I wonder if they realise that the Bulldogs are now only 1 win behind them?
7. Adelaide 9/7
Draw: Ess (H) Carl (A) Saints (H) WCE (A) Coll (H) Dogs (A)
Medical: Doedee (season) & Lynch for the short term. Oh and apparently Riley Knight looked stunned. I wonder if he needs to be managed?
Recent form: smashed the mighty Suns but lost last 2 badly prior.
Big game at home this week v Bombers. Is it the battle of the great pretenders? Some talk they would drop Eddie last week. Surely not? We’ll have him
8. Essendon 9/7
Draw: Crows (A) Suns (A) Port (H) Dogs (H) Freo (A) Coll (MCG)
Medical: Daniher & Bellchambers are long term
Recent form: have won 5 of their last 6 without Daniher and a ruckman. What are they on this time?
The form team of the comp along with Brisbane and the mighty Bulldogs. Only play 1 top 4 team on the run home. Most other games are against middle tier teams. Not a scary draw especially if any of the middle tier teams drop off. Beat Crows & Suns they will 11 & 7 and in good shape.
9. Port 8/8
Draw: Rich (A) GWS (H) Ess (A) Swans (H) North (A) Freo (H)
Medical: too hard
Recent form: they just seem to go WLWLWLWLWL
They just keep going WLWL which I found fascinating. Apparently it has been like that since they won the premiership in 2004.
10. Bulldogs 8/8
Draw: Saints (Marvel) Freo (H) Lions (A) Ess (H) GWS (A) Crows (H)
Medical: McLean joins the injury list, Libba & Daniel hopefully not too far
Recent form: we have won 4 of our last 5 and the rest of the comp are getting very nervous.
Dogs are right back in this. Tough away games to Lions & GWS could be defining. Having scraped over the line v Carlton & now Melbourne, thank God we aren’t playing the Suns on the way home.
The following teams still have a mathematical chance
11. Hawthorn 7/9
Draw: Cats (MCG) Lions (H) North (A) GWS (A) Suns (H) WCE (A)
Have to beat the Cats to have any chance. But if they don’t they still have Clarko!
12. North Melb 7/9
Draw: Lions (A) WCE (A) Hawks (H) Cats (A) Port (H) Melb (Tas)
Will be tough from here with big games v Lions & WCE both away and a growing injury list. There is every chance that despite their great recent form they could still lose most of their remaining games. Will they still think Rhys Shaw is a genius then?
13. Fremantle 7/9
Draw: Swans (H) Dogs (A) Cats (H) Saints (H) Ess (H) Port (A)
A few weeks ago they were 7-5 and eying off the top 4. They have since lost 4 winnable games but Ross says he’s doing a great job. So he must be!
14. Sydney 6/10
Draw: Freo (A) Cats (H) GWS (A) Port (A) Melb (A) Saints (H)
I said last week they should play Allir Allir at Full Forward and they didn’t listen and look what happened. Serves them right. The Horse may not have bolted but the Swans are nothing more than ugly ducklings
15. Saints 6/10
Draw: Dogs (A) Melb (H) Crows (A) Freo (H) Carl (A) Swans (A)
Please don’t get rid of the coach this week
16. Melbourne 5/11
Draw: WCE (H) Saints (A) Rich (H) Coll (H) Swans (H) North (A)
Sorry Dees it’s all over. Doggies made sure of it. More chance of claiming the spoon than a finals berth.
Re: The Run Home Rounds 17-23 2019
I have us winning Saints, Freo, Essendon and Crows, and we sneak in at 8th
Re: The Run Home Rounds 17-23 2019
If we can just get the job done in the next two weeks .... which we should do on form that would give us a real crack. Five wins a row would do wonders for the teams confidence and belief. Get that done. Then reset. Who knows what can happen then!
Re: The Run Home Rounds 17-23 2019
Have we ever won 5 in a row with Bevo at the helm?
Great thread, btw.