A Draft Points Deficit Theory (AFEL After Pay)

As you may know, I created a thread about our draft points for next year. I'm not a fan of moving into deficit for the 2021 draft. I've been interested in the way Buddhist monks are taught in their monastery. Often put in positions to strongly argue against their beliefs and teaching with their lama. Either they find a flaw in their beliefs/teachings or despite the argument, or it confirms it. So this is my complete counter argument to trying to avoid a draft points deficit next year, it's more of a theoretical exercise.

We exploit the trade rules. The rules on future draft pick trading is limited to the next year. But because of circumstances, we can effectively trade two years of future draft picks. Giving us an advantage over the competition.

How? Because we have a shit ton of salary cap and a NGA next year going top 3. So let's say in round figure we need 3,000 points. But we trade out the first rounder. Instead of looking to secure a second rounder for next year, we turn it into pick 25, 27 or 28 (picks from Freo, Port & Hawks) as they have NGA/FS going first round. So without the first round and second rounder, we go into deficit by about 2,000 points. This in round terms costs us our 2021 1st & 2nd. But we use them this trade period.

What we are effectively doing is future pick trading for two years with the AFEL for the 2021 draft. We can't trade our 2021 1st & 2nd to a club, but we can to the AFEL (via deficit). A nice little exploitation of the rules. In that draft there's potentially Sam Darcy (ruck/fwd) and The West Twins (outside mids) for us and any NGAs. Reporting of next year's draft is that the first round is ok, but after that it drops off. So our 2020 1st is worth even more.

So we've decided to future picks our first, pass on a future second and let the AFEL take our 1st & 2nd in 2021. What does that mean in terms of personnel?

Keath & Bruce locked up. Next year's 1st rounder Moore/Howard. Papley and minor swaps in the second and third rounds for Pick 13 & McLean/Libba/Wally (if they want to go, I don't want to lose them but we need trade currency). Second rounder obtained of a Venables outside run/forward type.

The assumptions are Papley apparently happy to go to anywhere in Victoria (other than North). Collingwood want a first rounder this year. Our 2020 first could to Moore, than can hold it for its benefit next year or look to Geelong who might have three first rounders and trade, that's not our issue. Or Howard for a late first rounder next year's might help them with the rebuild.

Salary cap:

In:

$550,000 Keath
$600,000 Bruce
$600,000 Moore/Howard
$700,000 Papley
$300,000 Venbles (type)
$250,000 Draftees X 3 (later picks have lower salaries)
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$3,000,000
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Savings:

$1,800,000 salary cap space (conservative number - Boyd, Picken, Morris retirements and our banking)
$450,000 McLean/Libba/Wally type salary freed up
$250,000 Roberts (signed just after the premiership) delisted
$250,000 Webb delisted
$300,000 Dickson delisted
$200,000 Gowers (traded out, won't get a game with the ins)
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$3,250,000 (more than enough dollars)
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So money isn't an issue. Next year we still grab Ugle-Hagan, MacPherson, Stevens &/or Raak for an injection of elite/very good talent next year.

But this theory is rolling the dice that we can win a flag in the next two years. We are using the system, exploiting it really, by bringing about two years of trade and draft plundering and using 'after pay' to cover the cost. The side looks like (say McLean is the out):

B: Suckling Moore/Howard Wood
HB: Crozier Keath JJ
C: Hunter Dunkley Daniel
HF: Lloyd Bruce Schache
F: Papley Naughton Dale
R: English Bontempelli Macrae
I: B. Smith Lipinski Liberatore Venables/type
E: Cordy, Trengove, Wallis, Williams, Richards

Other: Le Young Duryea, West, La Young, Hayes, Cavarra, Greene, Khamis, Vandermeer, Porter, Sweet, Roarke?, Gardner?, Jong, Lynch (3 draft ins: ruck insurance, Kellett & upgrade La Young) (Ugle-Hagan, MacPherson, Stevens &/or Raak next year)

8 spots needed: (1) Boyd (2) Morris (3) Picken (4) Dickson (5) Roberts (6) Webb (7) McLean/other (8) Gowers

Bevo has said he wants to keep the list together. McLean/other & Gowers going might not sit well with Bevo. Unless someone comes hard for Jong, Gowers or Lynch and they want to take up an offer from another club, maybe Bevo isn't on board. Who knows?

Next year there's not too many issues. There's the extra cap (as above) to throw at Bailey Smith, Schache by reporting is on his Brisbane figure ($500,000) so that will be the same, Wood extended as a premiership captain and I doubt gets the same money. Suckling will retire. There will be a numerous delistings too. So I'm comfortable about money.


In conclusion, this theory permits a very aggressive player acquisition strategy in trades this year and then in priority access players next year. The cost catches up after two full seasons of trying to contend for another flag. That might be mitigated a bit if Sam Darcy (bottom age ruck/fwd next year at Oakleigh with Ugle-Hagan) & The Twins come good for the 2021 draft. We would be effectively trading two years in advance, which could be a strategic advantage over the competition.


So... Amass draft points next year and head into 2021 with a full (or near full) draft pick grouping well positioned to hit the draft or trade. Or... Go all out on trades this year, plunder priority players next year and use 'AFEL after pay' in 2021?

I could sit and read your draft musings for ever BT. It wouldn't matter if I never saw another game of AFL footy.


Hell the musings don't even have to be about the draft-footy would keep me occupied.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Twodogs

I could sit and read your draft musings for ever BT. It wouldn't matter if I never saw another game of AFL footy.


Hell the musings don't even have to be about the draft-footy would keep me occupied.

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BT Musings. I might trademark that.

My brain hurts after reading that. You must be a gun chess player BT!

I love your theories. If there is anyway we can exploit the corrupt AFEL for a win for us then we owe it to the history of our club to do it because we are always the first to be bent over.

That looks like a pretty formidable team sheet too btw. There's at least 2 flags in that group imo

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ratsmac

My brain hurts after reading that. You must be a gun chess player BT!

I love your theories. If there is anyway we can exploit the corrupt AFEL for a win for us then we owe it to the history of our club to do it because we are always the first to be bent over.

That looks like a pretty formidable team sheet too btw. There's at least 2 flags in that group imo

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Thanks Ratsmac. I'm still in the camp of trying to rack up draft points for next year. But fleshing out the exact opposite argument, just to see what it looks like, of racking up draft points (above) is a little intriguing.

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Originally Posted by bulldogtragic

BT Musings. I might trademark that.

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It does sound good.

I seriously hope Sam Power is reading your posts. Maybe gets you on speed dial as part of the brains trust. Not that he needs to do everything that you say, but these are the sort of well thought out and constructive arguments that would at least provide him food for thought.

Ok. The news of our strong interest in Ben King has me looking back at this with some more detail.

Reverse engineering it:

- We can take a 1,723 draft point deficit into 2021. That's the last limit I've seen.
- Let's go nearly worst case for draft points, we need 4,000 draft points if we want JUH, Macca, Stevens & Raak.

- If we are prepared to go 1,723 points in deficit, costing us our 2021 1st & 2nd rounder, then we need only 2,277 draft points on hand next year.

- So. If we can find 2,277 draft points next year without using our first rounder. Then we can offer our first rounder (2020) and a player for Ben King.

- 2,277 points from say finishing 15th in 2nd, 3rd & 4th rounders would be 871 draft points. If we can do some future trading this year to cover the gap, two second rounders next year around Pick 25 would do it (1,400 points). Our two later thirds are worth around 500 points if future traded for a similar amount. Then we are looking for 900 points or so, perhaps for a player and a good second rounder next year. Seems achievable if we wanted.


Then we take our trades this year, hopefully Bruce & Keath at a minimum. Bulk up our 2020 points. Take our draftees this year. Trade for Ben King next year. Draft JUH, Macca, Stevens &/or Raak. Then pay back the draft points deficit in 2021 with our first and second rounders. Then win a few premierships. This repayment (plus a player) is pretty much the cost of getting Ben King and having our cake and eating it too.


Note: We can take in a slightly bigger deficit into 2021 if we trade players for future picks next year. So trading out some fringe players for whatever we can get (3rd or 4th rounders) next year would be of benefit.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bulldogtragic

Ok. The news of our strong interest in Ben King has me looking back at this with some more detail.

Reverse engineering it:

- We can take a 1,723 draft point deficit into 2021. That's the last limit I've seen.
- Let's go nearly worst case for draft points, we need 4,000 draft points if we want JUH, Macca, Stevens & Raak.

- If we are prepared to go 1,723 points in deficit, costing us our 2021 1st & 2nd rounder, then we need only 2,277 draft points on hand next year.

- So. If we can find 2,277 draft points next year without using our first rounder. Then we can offer our first rounder (2020) and a player for Ben King.

- 2,277 points from say finishing 15th in 2nd, 3rd & 4th rounders would be 871 draft points. If we can do some future trading this year to cover the gap, two second rounders next year around Pick 25 would do it (1,400 points). Our two later thirds are worth around 500 points if future traded for a similar amount. Then we are looking for 900 points or so, perhaps for a player and a good second rounder next year. Seems achievable if we wanted.


Then we take our trades this year, hopefully Bruce & Keath at a minimum. Bulk up our 2020 points. Take our draftees this year. Trade for Ben King next year. Draft JUH, Macca, Stevens &/or Raak. Then pay back the draft points deficit in 2021 with our first and second rounders. Then win a few premierships. This repayment (plus a player) is pretty much the cost of getting Ben King and having our cake and eating it too.

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Or we swoop this year and offer the Suns our #13 and our first round in 2020.

We just need Ben to say the words, “I would like a trade to the Western Bullldogs”.

Maybe this is the big play that has been referred to ?;)

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Originally Posted by Doc26

Or we swoop this year and offer the Suns our #13 and our first round in 2020.

We just need Ben to say the words, “I would like a trade to the Western Bullldogs”.

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For sure!! I'm assuming we've tried that. That's our dream scenario. Put something like (Martin's $700,000 X 5) to him and let GCS know about it too. That was the thing that got us Tom Boyd when he said through Liam Pickering 'I want to be traded to the Western Bulldogs. If not this year, it will be next year'.

They've got Witts, Day, Tompson, Collins, Wright & Lukusios. And two more first rounders here.
King gets a pay day.
We get King.

But if not this year, if we structure up well for the 2020 draft then it's who can pitch the best vision to him. Tom Boyd didn't nominate Carlton his childhood team. He chased money and the chance at a flag.

You're starting to sound like crazy D from Essendon now. So what you're saying, essentially, is that we could possibly beat Essendon as winners of trade week for the next two years?

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Originally Posted by 1eyedog

You're starting to sound like crazy D from Essendon now. So what you're saying, essentially, is that we could possibly beat Essendon as winners of trade week for the next two years?

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Never, unfortunately. We will just to have to live with quiet excellence without winning trade week.

I like it mate. It's very un-Bulldogs like because we've always taken a more conservative approach because, being a smaller often financially struggling club we've had to. The Tom Boyd trade broke the mold and led to a premiership. I'm all for your scenario if it nets us even one more flag in the next two years.