Stats don't lie: Dunkley-less Dogs exposed
Stats don't lie : Dunkley-less Dogs exposed
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Josh Dunkley's impact for the Lions this season has been significant, but the hole he's left at the Bulldogs has been just as telling
By Riley Beveridge
YOU CAN already see a Josh Dunkley-shaped hole in the Western Bulldogs midfield.
As the 2016 premiership player prepares for his first game against his former employer on Thursday night, Dunkley's impact at Brisbane and the void he has left at the Dogs is already evident.
Dunkley has been deployed firmly in the heart of the Lions midfield through the first fortnight of the season. The impact he's had on his new team has been significant, but what he's left needing to be filled at the Dogs has been just as telling.
Champion Data notes that Dunkley's midfield splits have already risen from 58 per cent last year with the Bulldogs, to 91 per cent with the Lions this season. His centre bounce attendances have also grown, from 14.2 per game to 24.5 per game.
It's seen the inside grunt and the defensive aspect of Dunkley's midfield game improve drastically. This season, although the two-week sample size is small, he already rates 'elite' per Champion Data for ground ball gets (10 per game), clearances (eight per game) and contested possession rate (65.9 per cent).
At the opposite end of the scale, the Western Bulldogs have gone from being the No.1 side in the League for both centre bounce clearance differential and points from clearance last season, to dead last in both categories through this year's first two matches.
The Dogs have also dipped in clearance differential numbers (No.1 last season, to No.7 so far this season) and contested possession differential (No.3 last year, to No.8 so far this year).
The absence of Dunkley is highlighted by the fact the Western Bulldogs won centre bounce clearance 52.1 per cent of the time he was in attendance last year, the highest rate of any player within the top-100 for centre bounce attendances. This year, at Brisbane, that number is up further to 53.1 per cent for Dunkley. Conversely, none of Dogs' five most used centre bounce players are above 35 per cent in 2023.
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Renowned as one of the best defensive runners among the Bulldogs' midfield group last season, the ground work that the 26-year-old used to cover has also been sorely lacking through the side's opening two defeats.
Champion Data stats show that Dunkley rates 'elite' this season for pressure points (85.5 per game), while the Dogs rank second-last in the competition for pressure factor. Dunkley is also averaging seven tackles per game so far this year, No.1 at the Lions and No.8 in the League. The Dogs, meanwhile, rank third-last for tackle differential within the AFL.
It's impossible to say whether Dunkley's absence needs to be factored into the discussion when considering the Dogs' alarming running numbers this season, but that has undoubtedly been another factor hurting the side so far.
In round one, Telstra Tracker stats show that Melbourne covered 10km more than the Bulldogs. The Demons also completed 64 more sprints and 11 more repeat sprints. It was a similar issue in round two, where St Kilda covered 6km more than the Dogs and completed 59 more total sprints and 12 more repeat sprints.
Speaking after the side's recent defeat to the Saints last Saturday night, coach Luke Beveridge conceded the Bulldogs had been "outworked" in the season's first fortnight but suggested there were more issues at play than just the group's work ethic.
"I think you'd have to say in the first two rounds we've been outworked," Beveridge said.
"We had a really solid pre-season. We've had some surprises coming into the year with one or two boys we've got 11 on the injury list at the moment, but that's not an excuse. It's just the way it is.
"You need a deep squad, but there's no doubt when we compare our output as far as ground cover and the intensity of it and the speed of it we haven't been up to the level that the first two teams we've played have.
"Now, that's a combination of things. It's definitely not because we haven't worked hard enough. It's a difficult one to analyse, but we've just got to face up to it."
Re: Stats don't lie: Dunkley-less Dogs exposed
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Grantysghost
It's impossible to say whether Dunkley's absence needs to be factored into the discussion when considering the Dogs' alarming running numbers this season, but that has undoubtedly been another factor hurting the side so far.
Impressively bad turn of phrase there.
Of course no Dunkley is hurting us, he’s a complete stud, but he’s not exactly Nathan Buckley and our static, boring ball use is way more of a concern.
Re: Stats don't lie: Dunkley-less Dogs exposed
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Happy Days
Impressively bad turn of phrase there.
Of course no Dunkley is hurting us, he’s a complete stud, but he’s not exactly Nathan Buckley and our static, boring ball use is way more of a concern.
I saw that and laughed too.
The entire premise of the article is that we are missing him!
Re: Stats don't lie: Dunkley-less Dogs exposed
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Grantysghost
I saw that and laughed too.
The entire premise of the article is that we are missing him!
2 games in and we are doomed.
Let's see how the season pans out and see if we are really missing him.
Re: Stats don't lie: Dunkley-less Dogs exposed
Quote:
Originally Posted by
bornadog
2 games in and we are doomed.
Let's see how the season pans out and see if we are really missing him.
There's some interesting stuff in there.
The 60/40 midfield split with us last year v 90/10 with Lions.
Clearly being used differently.
Re: Stats don't lie: Dunkley-less Dogs exposed
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Grantysghost
There's some interesting stuff in there.
The 60/40 midfield split with us last year v 90/10 with Lions.
Clearly being used differently.
How many mids do they have? Neale, Mcglug and the young boy, compared to us?
Dunks is a big bodied mid who is slow, can't kick but gets alot of the ball.
Re: Stats don't lie: Dunkley-less Dogs exposed
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Happy Days
Impressively bad turn of phrase there.
Of course no Dunkley is hurting us, he’s a complete stud, but he’s not exactly Nathan Buckley and our static, boring ball use is way more of a concern.
If he was out injured we would be saying how much we are missing our B&F winner and the impacts to the team etc.
Now that he is playing for the opposition apparently we may not be missing him.
He might be able to help partly address one or two of our challenges but we have a few more than that at the moment.
Re: Stats don't lie: Dunkley-less Dogs exposed
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Grantysghost
There's some interesting stuff in there.
The 60/40 midfield split with us last year v 90/10 with Lions.
Clearly being used differently.
Berry goes through there too.
His kicking is actually better than it looks (if that makes any sense!)
Re: Stats don't lie: Dunkley-less Dogs exposed
Delete post, wrong thread.
Re: Stats don't lie: Dunkley-less Dogs exposed
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Yankee Hotel Foxtrot
Delete post, wrong thread.
Yes delete the thread
Re: Stats don't lie: Dunkley-less Dogs exposed
The old saying is there are lies, damned lies and statistics.
Meaning - one can manipulate statistics to support any argument, irrespective of how weak that argument is. And often the same statistic can be used for BOTH sides of an argument. Therefore, statistics are IRRELEVANT. Winning is the only thing that matters.
Bulldogs without Dunkley 67, Brions with Dunkley 53. Nuff said.
