Second house here we come!
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That's still just saying what Essendon says. It's not what Dunkley or us told Jon Ralph which is far more important. It's a poorly written article full of maybes and Essendon wishes and short on actual facts. At one stage it says that Josh "is keen to move to the Dogs" If this was a post on BF it would have the *!*!*!*! trolled out of it. The only definitive quote is us saying "The Bulldogs as we speak today are saying nothing is doing, there is no way we will trade a player who has two yeas on his contract."
Essendon can say that it was really them that won the flag last night if they want and just because Jon Ralph repeats it or says "Essendon told me they would win the 2021 AFL Premiership" doesn't make it true.
Players have been wanting to leave clubs for yonks and have ended up staying at their original club. Papley last year is one example. Now he is happy in Sydney. Another was Ryan O'Keefe who wanted to leave Sydney and go to the Hawks. He ended up staying and played in a premiership. I remember Wayne Campbell wanted to leave Richmond, couldn't get a clearance and ended up staying. There are many more that others might remember. So even if Dunks was interested I am confident the club will stick to "no deal" and he will stay a dog.
Like many I'm still yet to see anything definitive about him wanting to leave, the vast majority of it including from reporters falls under the "wild speculation" category. As pointed out by Twodogs the main indicator that he is leaving comes from a post that reads like it is ripped straight from Bigfooty.
Dunkley does not appear to be the kind of guy that would demand a trade; he doesn't seem like a mercenary, he is the coaches pet (and in my experience the coaches pet never leaves), has a really good friendship group at the club including Bont, is well respected and liked by the playing group and despite the occasional stint in the ruck always appears to be enjoying playing for the side.
I will admit it is plausible though, it's a huge offer and one I don't think we could (or should) get close to matching. I think at most he could get approx $700k with us (which is still huge obviously) which means he stands to collect and extra $1m over 5 years by moving (even more when you consider his current contract is likely to be $500k at best, so a $2.5M increase over 5 years). Combine that with Essendon likely picking up his brother Kyle, who he is pretty close with (as well as his sister Lara) he kind of has two boxes ticked.
I'd imagine if he does go it would be tentatively and almost because he feels obliged to, I mean it's almost irresponsible to not take an offer like that, hence the whole "we will make him an offer too good to refuse" strategy from Essendon. I'd certainly be disappointed by him choosing that option but I also don't think I would begrudge him making that choice, although it being Essendon is so shit from both a "I really hate Essendon" and a "Dodoro is the worst to deal with" standpoint.
Plenty of hysteria surrounding this one.
I just can’t see how a deal gets done at this stage. Essendon don’t have the currency at the trade table to land a big fish from us. Draft picks are worth less to us this year and unsure if trading for future picks helps our shirt term aspirations to be a top 4 side. We’d have to line up a few trades ourselves (contingent on those Essendon picks) before we’d consider pulling the trigger.
All of that aside, hard to see Josh leave. Popular team mate, best footy still in front of him and while he hasn’t got himself as much midfield rotation as he would’ve liked in 2020, no reason that doesn’t change in 2021. Football is a funny game, injuries happen, and the sun can set on careers pretty quicklY particularly for players with a history of long term injuries.
Let’s wait and see what happens here.
The top tax bracket is 45%. Also consider he'd absolutely have access to someone who could help him bring down his taxable income with some deductions. Even the worst case scenario of $1M extra income over 5 years ends up being at minimum $550K over the same time period. Still an astounding amount of money.
Just say he wants to leave because of the amazing offer basically setting him up for life. Is there a scenario where exactly because he is so well respected we actually give him his wish and try and broker a deal in good faith? I don't believe for a second that we should do this but I considered it and wondered what the forum might think.
If the Kyle stuff is really that important... couldn't we pick him up just as easily? God knows there are plenty of candidates for delisting and it's not like Kyle looked completely hopeless when he played. Would he really be worse that Porter?
And therefore opening the door for a same scenarios with Smith and Naughton? Given his age the club will take a wider view than just what might suit Dunkley good bloke and all.
To me that is more of a scenario for a 28 or 29yo where the next deal might be their last
On the flipside they will have heaps of picks with Daniher and Saad leaving. That's probably three first round picks coming in at once.
If we were to trade I'd be trying very hard to get their first rounder next year. They won't improve, are already shit, are not really making big moves to improve themselves culturally, it could well be a top 5 (if not top 2 or 3 ) pick. That's what I'd be pushing for. Additionally they likely get picks 17 and 18 from Brisbane this year for Daniher.
Give them Dunkley and our pick 12 this year for their picks 17 and 18 this year and their first rounder next year. Obviously I'd hang onto the probably very good pick next year for ourselves but picks 17 and 18 would be good currency to target a number of players with or we could split them further for more points ie. Port Adelaide have 26 and 42 which is worth over 100 points more than pick 18 (not the best example but the kind of thinking we could do).
I don't like the idea of giving away list spots unless we think people deserve them. I get it's expedient to possibly do that but you pay a price, just like the Bummers will if they bring in Kyle Dunkley and players who are already on their list see good mates get delisted to ensure an extremely highly paid recruit can have a brother gifted a list spot at the club.
If they want to play that game, good on 'em. If they think it's going to be good for their culture then again, good on 'em.