The real and surprising cost of injuries in 2016: Remarkable numbers behind Western Bulldogs’ flag

The real and surprising cost of injuries in 2016: Remarkable numbers behind Western Bulldogs’ flag

A DOSE of good luck is often required to win a premiership.

Sometimes it comes down to the bounce of a ball, a lineball umpiring decision or a perfectly timed fingertip.

But more often than not, a clean bill of health is behind a team’s success.

The Western Bulldogs more than bucked that trend in 2016.

Not only did their skipper suffer a season-ending injury, but a plethora of players from their best 22 went down.

In fact, according to the 2017 AFL Prospectus produced by Champion Data, only Fremantle was hit harder by injuries last year, according to the number-crunchers’ new ‘injury cost’ metric.

In deciphering the impact an injury has on a club, Champion Data first asks whether the injury changes the complexion of the team’s best 22. Then it considered whether the injured player is better than their replacement going by its Official AFL Player Ratings points.

Of all the injuries suffered last year, Nat Fyfe — replaced by Ed Langdon in Round 6 — was the most costly, with the 11.7-point differential between the two players the greatest gap for 2016.

By season’s end, Fyfe’s injury had cost the Dockers 198.9 points. Ouch.

COST OF INJURIES VS. NUMBER OF INJURIES

FOR the second straight season, the Gold Coast Suns were annihilated by injuries, with coach Rodney Eade forced to field a league-high 40 players.

In total, the Suns lost 225 games to injury — the most of any team and eight more than the next worse off in Collingwood.

St Kilda lost the least games through injury (80).

The Bulldogs (216) lost the third-most amount of games through injury, but the most games from their best 22 (165). Collingwood (160) and the Lions (153) weren’t far behind.

What this tells us is that while the Suns suffered the most injuries, the differential between their injured players and their replacements wasn’t as significant as the Bulldogs and Collingwood.

Adelaide was barely impacted, losing only 35 games through injury to its best 22, with Rory Laird’s five-game absence the Crows’ greatest loss.

THE TRUE COST OF INJURIES

THE total cost of injuries takes into account the total Official AFL Player Ratings points each club lost through injury in 2016.

Fremantle (689 points) was by far and away the club most decimated by injuries.

Not only did the Dockers lose Fyfe, but also uncapped Docker Harley Bennell (145.2) and premier ruckman Aaron Sandilands (128). A host of injuries to depth players also affected their total injury cost.

The Dockers’ poor bill of health was reflected in their dramatic slide out of the eight.

But the same could not be said of the Bulldogs, who lost 428 games through injury — the second most.

And they still claimed the flag.

The Adelaide Crows (91) were least affected.

WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US

FIRSTLY, what the Bulldogs achieved is truly remarkable.

While the bye between the regular season and first week of the finals allowed them to bring back Easton Wood, Jordan Roughead, Tom Liberatore, Jake Stringer and Jack Macrae, they managed to finish in the eight when other clubs with similar injury problems fell away.

Expect them to challenge again in 2017.

Many are tipping the Giants to take home this year’s premiership, but it’s worth noting their total cost of injuries was some 140 ranking points fewer than the Bulldogs.

On the other side of the coin, two teams that are pushing for spots in the eight in St Kilda and Melbourne had very good years in terms of injuries, with Adelaide the only club Champion Data rated as better off than the duo.

Injuries to players, especially top players, may therefore play a major role in determining if either team breaks through to play finals.

Hawthorn was the only other side to play finals and finish in the top half of the injury ladder. Jarryd Roughead’s absence was the primary reason for this.

COSTLIEST INJURED PLAYERS

Player — Total Points Lost Without Player — Points Lost Per Game

Nat Fyfe — 198.9 (11.7)

Jarryd Roughead — 165.6 (6.9)

Dayne Beams — 148 (7.4)

Harley Bennell — 145.2 (6.6)

Aaron Sandilands — 128 (8)

Robert Murphy — 103.5 (4.5)

Dane Swan — 88 (4.4)

Brett Deledio — 85.8 (7.8)

Jamie Elliot — 78.5 (3.6)

2016 AFL INJURY LADDER

(Total cost in terms of Ranking Points)

1 — Fremantle (689)

2 — Western Bulldogs (428)

3 — Brisbane (419)


4 — Collingwood (417)

5 — Hawthorn (362)

6 — Gold Coast (335)

7 — Richmond (328)

8 — North Melbourne (304)

9 — Port Adelaide (291)

10 — GWS (288)

11 — Geelong (258)

12 — Sydney (210)

13 — West Coast (181)

14 — Carlton (180)

15 — Essendon (179)

16 — St Kilda (123)

17 — Melbourne (103)

18 — Adelaide (91)

Interesting to see GWS get such a good run - one suspects they may not have it as easy in 2017.

Saints had a dream run with injury and had most of their senior players finish high in their B&F. I doubt they get such blessings two years in a row which means they will probably miss finals again, which will surprise many of their fans who believe they are sure things.

Great article and something we were all saying throughout the season. Just astonishing what we achieved and it doesn't even take Crammers into account. If we can get a good run in this area this year....look out.

Also goes to show that Melbourne and Saints really aren't as good as they are being made out. Dream runs with injury, with the saints also having a soft schedule. Also Adelaide are overrated. Knew all year they basically had zero injuries and they still couldn't match it in the finals.