2022 AFEL Draft Father/Son, Live Trade Ramblings

Primarily Father/Sons and 'live trading':


Brisbane: Picks 34, 35, 36, 38, 55, 73

My thoughts are 99.9% chance they've done an under the table deal with GWS to have them NOT bid in Ashcroft at Pick 1. So they will get Fletcher & Ashcroft at a lesser price and no deficit.


Draft Points:

34. 542
35. 522
36. 502
38. 465


Effect on Draft to Us:

Assuming all picks in the 30's are exhausted in matching bids. Say at Pick 2 and 15. Then our picks become Picks 12, 22 and 37.


Any Opportunity to Us:

Not really. Only that our Pick 39 slides into Pick 37 which improves its trade value, or gives us an opportunity to prey on another clubs NGA kid before they get rights once the draft hits Pick 40.



Essendon 4, 22, 54, 62, 68, 72

Obviously linked to Alwyn Jr and Jayden Davey. Plus Munkara if he slips passed Pick 40.

Alwyn Jr doesn't look like slipping to Pick 24 (after shuffling). Without a heap of Draft Points after Pick 24, they look like they might need to get fairly active in trading or waiting to 'live trade' on the Pick 24.

As I see it, they could look to trade up the order. Hypothetically, we let them know we were going to bid on him with our Pick 23 (after shuffling). Essendon could look to trade Pick 24 to us for Pick 23. For that, they'd have to hand over a F3 if they want ' the cake and eat it too' option by trading up before the bid. They're still very low on Draft Points so we may need to throw in our likely unused Pick in the 60's to make the deal work.

The less risky option for them, it to trade out Pick 24. I think we are we placed to go for it, if we wanted to pursue it. Their Pick 24 for our Pick 39, 60's Pick and F2 (tied to Brisbane). That's a very, very solid outcome for Essendon. If we really rated a kid at Pick 24 and was worth trading in a an early Second Rounder for two Late Second Rounders, then there's a move here.


Effect on Draft to Us:

Assuming all picks in the 30's are exhausted in matching bids. Say at Pick 2 and 15. Then our picks become Picks 12, 22 and 37.


Any Opportunity to Us:

Potentially, if we can offer them points and flexibility to maximise the Davey Matched bid.



Adelaide: Picks 46, 56, 59

They have right not about 685 Draft Points (Before shuffling from Brisbane and Essendon). That might swell out to around 830 Draft Points after shuffling. Assuming Max Michalanney is an early Second Round Selection, they're pretty well set for points, but then nothing much else. If their NGA kid, Isaac Keller, gets just passed Pick 40, they will need some extra Draft Points. Our Pick in the 60's would probably do the trick for them.


Effect on Draft to Us:

N/A if we are not using a ND Pick after Pick 37 (after shuffling)


Any Opportunity to Us:

Perhaps is they wanted our pick in the 60's to secure Keeler (getting passed Pick 40) and probably then get another residual late pick after matching the bid, this could be a good 'live trade' for therm. Perhaps offering them that and our natural F4 for their F4. A slim upgrade of F4. Ideally, being greedy, the exchange of the F4 tied to Melbourne would be better. Then essentially its Schache (likely to have been delisted) and Pick 69 (not going to be used) - two unwanted things - for say Pick 60 next year is a sweet little outcome for unwanted things of the club.




Other public rumours of Pick Trading:


Sydney. Not sure the conditions about them wanting Humphrey to trade up the order.


GWS offering up Pick 19. This usually gains in value after the first draft night, as a gun kid slips and all the clubs assess it and usually a club offers a lot to get the first pick of the second night (Pick 19). Such as Brisbane getting Dev Robertson in this exact type trade.

If we were absolutely crazy for a kid at Pick 19 and we didn't think he'd slide to our Pick 21 and wanted to do something about it. I could only imagine, if we somehow ended up with Essendon's Pick 22 (after the end of the first night) that we could offer GWS Picks 21 and 22 (23 and 24) for their Picks 19 and 31 (Picks 21 and 35).

We'd have to be absolutely crazy for such a 'slider' as getting that two pick upgrade for the first pick of the second night effectively returns our third pick back to the mid/late 30's. Meaning we're effectively (hypothetically here) trading the F2 (tied to Brisbane) to get that small upgrade to get the first pick of the second night. Which is exactly what Brisbane paid to land Dev Robertson - a second round pick to get a one pick upgrade (plus getting a token future 4th back). So it's not without precedent.

Assuming Davey Jr doesn't go on the first night, Dodoro might look to the GWS Pick 19 & 31 for their Pick 22 and a Future Second Rounder. Which gives them Picks 4, 19 (first pick of night 2) and Davey x 2 and maybe Munkara - for giving up a F2. I guess it depends on how aggressive Dodoro wants to be, and how they see themselves finishing next year and the relative strength of that F2 Pick.



The 'us' of it all:

While i'm hoping we are looking down every 'live trade' opportunity, i'm thinking there's limited scope to think there's going to be wholesale change to our picks. After shuffling (4 Father/Sons at circa Picks 2, 15, 24, 25 - but 5 picks soaked up in matching bids) i'm thinking we have: Picks 12, 23 and 38 (Before the NGA kicks in at Pick 40).

Hopefully we can get a little something for offloading, via live trading, the Pick in the 60's assuming a couple of clubs might need for some draft points attached to the pick. Won't be much (ie slight F4 upgrade), but anything is a bonus.

Then assuming no chances to our list structure, two rookie list spots for the rookie draft. Hopefully a ruckman for depth, and i'm guessing a recycled player, with publicly rumoured names linked to us already as Oskar Baker (wing) and James Rowe (forward). With so many older, fragile bodies, overlooked players could do worse than come to Footscray VFL and hope to impress and see if a Mid Season Draft spot opens up.

Assuming the phantom drafts are close to the mark, we are looking at a Top 21 Pick forward (Konstanty, George) and developing KPD (Busslinger, Weddle), an open shot with Pick 38 and then some depth in the rookie draft. Being added to Lobb and Jones.


Then the focus turns to next year, draft and/or trade:

First (Dogs)
First (Bris)
Second (Bris)
Fourth (Dogs or upgraded)
Fourth (Melb)
Fourth (Geel)

Salary Cap freed up circa $1,000,000

Croft as a Father/Son option, form dependant

I wouldn't be surprised if we put bids on all of Michelanney, Fletcher & Davey Jnr if the opportunity present itself. It would be interesting to see if Adelaide would match a bid on Michelanney if we were to use our 1st pick to bid on him.

Brisbane will no doubt be working hard on the Kangaroos not to bid on Ashcroft at picks 2 & 3.

The salary cap free up of $1m + 2 first round picks put us in prime position to land an A grader next year. Surely Ben mcKay (free agent) must be on the radar.

We are likely to have Bruce, Keath, Crozier, Duryea & Libba either retire or on reduced short term contracts. It could also be a big year for turnover if we have a similar or worse season as 22. Vandermeer, McNeil, Scott, O'Brien, Hannan & R.Smith need to establish themselves in the senior team. another year of yo yo-ing and it could be sayonara. So there could be a few $$ saved with any delistings among these players.

West Coast: (8), 12, 20, 26, (71)
West Dogs:11, 21, 39, (67, 75)

I wonder if they’d be desperate get Busslinger at 12. Whether we’d entertain a shuffle if we were happy to oblige.

Trade out: 11, 21, 39 & F4 tied to Geelong
Trade in: 12, 20, 26 & F2 tied to Port

(After shuffling it’s possible pick 38 comes into pick 30, so overall:

1 pick downgrade
1 pick upgrade
8 pick upgrade
F2 to then have 2 x F1 and 2 x F2, 2 x F4)

Would WCE want to spend some capital to secure a WA lad, notably Busslinger? Would we be happy to pass over him to get the very next kid/pick, in order to move into the second pick of night 2 and trade up from 39 into 26?

Using the rough ESPN Phantom:

Busslinger vs Allan

Possibly upgrade from Hotton to someone like Hayes, Konstanty, Cowan. WCE might look around other locals like Gilbey or Jones with 21 & 39.

The upgrade on Pick 39 might bring in a Charlie Clarke


Dogs: No trades. Busslinger, Hotton, Drury

Dogs: WCE live pick trades. Allan, Hayes/Konstanty, Clarke and F2


WCE secure all locals, and a lot of top end talent.

Dogs pass on say Busslinger, but look to improve the draft hand this year and next.

GWS:

ESPN have shuffled gws picks: 17, 19 & 21 for George, Hayes (not matching bid) & Konstanty

Dogs with 12, 23 & 40.

Roughly wiping out 21 and 23. It’s 12 & 40 for 17 & 19. Maybe their F3 for a F4 of ours.

Would you prefer Buss, Hotton & Drury

Or George, Hayes & Konstanty and slight future upgrade



Edit:

GWS then have 951 Draft Points with Pick 35 & 40. An early big on Davey would chew us Don’s Pick 25, 756 DPs. So GWS could be well placed to move back up the order is we (or others) then bid on Davey and Dodoro saw the opportunity with GWS. Maybe even 57 for 61 to top up points for Essendon too.

GWS then with 1, 12, 23, 25 & 61

GWS do well. Essendon net 250 DPs if an early big comes in. Do dogs want any part of it?

ESPN, Sydney: 16 & 20 live traded for 12 & 23 and F3

Allan/George & Hayes (Drury as per phantom) with F3

Or

Busslinger, Hotton & Drury

Milesi said the list management committee were looking at live trades today. Hence trying to talk out loud about options on the board that we lay people can see.

I think we have some pretty enticing picks for other clubs to try to ‘buy’ from us. Obviously everything comes down to the night and the other clubs desire to trade. But we look in a solid position. Goods picks if nothing else happens, or as Don said, we’re open to good offers for our picks too.

Should be very, very interesting with our draft picks.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bulldogtragic

ESPN, Sydney: 16 & 20 live traded for 12 & 23 and F3

Allan/George & Hayes (Drury as per phantom) with F3

Or

Busslinger, Hotton & Drury

---

Trading down might make some sense if we aren't that keen on interstate players. Getting the likes of Weddle and George might be a preference.

So now it gets interesting for Essendon. They've Pick 25.

Do they try to trade up to GWS first pick to kick tomorrow night off to ensure they're ahead of a Davey bid?

Do we try to get Pick 25 to add to our Pick 24 by offering 39, 60 (plenty of points) and a F2? (Even by bidding on Davey ourselves) - If we rated the kid at 3rd and 4th calls tomorrow night, that makes sense for both clubs if we can ensure a Davey bid comes in.

Giving us two of say (from) George, Clarke, Ryan, Hayes, Hotton, Cowan etc.

Bid on Davey with 24 then bid on Munkara with 39. I'd love to see their faces

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by The Doctor

Bid on Davey with 24 then bid on Munkara with 39. I'd love to see their faces

---

For sure. Would like them force out Pick 25 to us. Back to back picks near the top tomorrow night would be huge for us.

If I was Dodoro I’d try hard to get GWS pick. But if they can’t and there’s a bid in the first three pick’s tomorrow night, I think 39, 60 & F2 is a good outcome for both clubs.

I hope we are trying to force this.

On the value of our current third pick, Pick 39, it still sits within the 'Protected Top 40 Picks' away from matching NGA bids. Assuming Davey Jr pushes it out to Pick 40, but his brother, Boomer Jr at North are bid after Pick 40 along with any northern academy selections all as predicted, then our third round pick will be Pick 40 which means should we bid on any NGA player, then all other clubs won't be able to match us.

Or we could live trade it to a club that wants to secure an NGA kid with the 'protected pick', if our target is elsewhere and we get incentivised to do the deal. So here's hoping that 3rd rounder falls at Pick 40 and the option is on the table to trade it for some value if that's something we want to explore.

Who know's where any bids land, but some phantom's have NGA kids; forward Munkara (Essendon), KPP/Ruck Keeler (Adelaide) and HBF/Winger Vickery (Hawthorn - Although they have Pick 38 currently) around the Pick 40 mark.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bulldogtragic

On the value of our current third pick, Pick 39, it still sits within the 'Protected Top 40 Picks' away from matching NGA bids. Assuming Davey Jr pushes it out to Pick 40, but his brother, Boomer Jr at North are bid after Pick 40 along with any northern academy selections all as predicted, then our third round pick will be Pick 40 which means should we bid on any NGA player, then all other clubs won't be able to match us.

Or we could live trade it to a club that wants to secure an NGA kid with the 'protected pick', if our target is elsewhere and we get incentivised to do the deal. So here's hoping that 3rd rounder falls at Pick 40 and the option is on the table to trade it for some value if that's something we want to explore.

Who know's where any bids land, but some phantom's have NGA kids; forward Munkara (Essendon), KPP/Ruck Keeler (Adelaide) and HBF/Winger Vickery (Hawthorn - Although they have Pick 38 currently) around the Pick 40 mark.

---

Dodoro appears to be wanting to trade. Can we get it. I hope so back to back picks at 24 & 25 would be ideal.

Both Daveys expected to get bids. The trade above gets Essendon both brothers and a F2. Cmon Adrian.