A few reasonable ins for Dees this week.
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That was a god awful game. Melbourne weren’t great and the saints never got out of 2nd gear
Where is T&T though :-(
I did a rough review and I think that 40 points (10 wins) should get you into the finals. For us the equation is simple - win every game from here - we do that we make the finals (probably).
The teams around us have hard games. Some of them play each other. Personally I think box seat are the Dees, the Pies. Us and the Giants are probably battling out of 8th. I think the saints are gone and same with Carlton.
Ok, as a bit of a stop-gap till T&T reemerges, I will throw down a summary of where things sit.
Below is the ladder with each teams remaining opponents. I have split the ladder into three: teams that are all but safe in the 8*, teams that are still in the mix, and teams that are cooked**. Bolded opponents for each team are extra important high stakes roots.
*You could argue that hub WC could fall off a cliff and lose 3 from 4 to miss
** GC could win all three and have a crazy string of results go their way
Both of these are highly unlikely.
We probably want everyone in the top 5 to win against the bolded teams (not us) and lose the rest. We want everyone from 13 down to win all their fixtures (again, not us).
Which roots we want to pull from the teams 6 to 12 is a bit more difficult and will require some weekly reassessment. I have put some notes against the middle bracket teams, but these could be redundant after even a few fixtures as all of the pieces move.
1- Port Adelaide: (11-3) 44 points and 128.4%
To come: North, Essendon, Collingwood
2- Geelong: (10-4) 40 points and 138.7
To come: Essendon, Richmond, Sydney
3- Brisbane: (10-3) 40 points and 117.4%
To come: Collingwood, GC, Sydney, Carlton
4- Richmond: (9-4-1) 38 points and 121.0%
To come: Fremantle, Geelong, Adelaide
5- West Coast: (9-4) 36 points and 115.3%
To come: Essendon, WB, St. Kilda, North
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6- Collingwood: (8-5-1) 34 points and 111.7%
To come: Brisbane, GC, Port
Notes: All going well, they lose the two bolded clashes at a minimum and finish on 38 points. GC could also knock them off, which would be nice. MISS.
7- St. Kilda: (8-6) 32 points and 113.3%
To come: Hawks, WC, GWS
Notes: Should beat the Hawks, but need them to lose the other two. 36 points. MISS.
8- Melbourne: (7-6) 28 points and 111.7%
To come: Sydney, Freo, GWS, Essendon
Notes: Likely win the first two, depends on how things sit going into the GWS game but we probably want them to lose both bolded games. Finish on 36 points. MAKE IT on %.
9- GWS: (7-6) 28 points and 101.8%
To come: Carlton, Adelaide, Melbourne, Saints
Would be amazing if Adelaide could beat them at AO, but Adelaide are super awful and they likely get a nice % boosting win. We either want them to win all of the rest, or lose them all. 44 points. MAKE IT.
10- Western Bulldogs: (7-7) 28 points and 100.1%
To come: WC, Hawthorn, Fremantle
Notes: Likely need to win all three. Or lose narrowly to WC and win by huge margins in the other two. Lets just win all three. 40 points MAKE IT.
11-Essendon: (6-6-1) 26 points and 88.9%
To come: WC, Geelong, Port, Melbourne
Notes: Want WC, Geelong, and Port to smash them to get Bomberblitz up and about then (I feel dirty) want to see them win against Melbourne. 30 points MISS.
12- Carlton: (6-7) 24 points and 97.1%
To come: GWS, Sydney, Adelaide, Brisbane
Notes: Their easy kills likely put them on 32 points, we want Brisbane and (probably) GWS to win the other two. MISS
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13- GC: (5-8-1) 22 points and 101.8%
To come: Brisbane, Collingwood, Hawthorn
14- Fremantle: (5-8) 20 points and 89.1%
To come: Richmond, Melbourne, North, WB
15- Hawthorn: (4-9) 16 points and 82.6%
To come: Adelaide, Saints, WB, GC
16- Sydney: (4-9) 16 points and 80.2%
To come: Melbourne, Carlton, Brisbane, Geelong
17- North Melbourne: (3-11) 12 points and 76.3%
To come: Port, Freo, WC
18- Adelaide: (0-13 haha) 0 points and 54.9%
To come: Hawks, GWS, Carlton, Richmond
Who do we pin our hopes on missing? I think Collingwood, Saints, Essendon, and Carlton are the most likely.
Round 15 Roots:
SYDNEY to beat Melbourne
BRISBANE to beat Collingwood
GWS to beat Carlton* (*probably)
WC to beat Essendon (but get really banged up and cop 9 suspensions)
FREO to beat Richmond
ADELAIDE to beat Hawthorn (giving them belief for the next week against GWS)
I am no T&T, let me know if you think I am trying to pull the wrong roots.
Appreciate the effort but we are done. Our chance came against the Cats on Friday night. Looks highly unlikely to fall our way over the next few weeks.