Thing is these aren't really even massive names that are rejecting our overtures. That's the worrying part for me.
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Herald Sun's Trade Update List (only relevant where we are mentioned. Nothing mentioned about any players of ours going. Alex Keath not mentioned).
DOUGAL HOWARD (PORT)
Contracted and wanted at the Power but has been told he will play forward next year. Will a suitor like the Dogs come hard at the 200cm smooth-moving swingman? They have interest and Port would have to consider an offer given he wasn’t in their side in Round 23 despite captaining the club for a game this year.
JOSH BRUCE (STK)
In discussions with the Western Bulldogs about a move to the kennel. Importantly, he will take the heat off youngster Aaron Naughton in marking contests. A second-round pick feels right.
Howard & Keath's stats are pretty similar this year, although Keath a bit better this season (extra 3.7 effective disposals, 1.7 marks but the rest pretty much even). But Howard is 4 years younger and with hopefully more development in him, is a similar weight but a few cm taller too. His first two seasons I imagine he had a fair bit to do with with Trengove.
With him being under contract I imagine Port would demand at minimum pick 12 for Howard & pick 27. Any good pick they need to come in before Mead maybe late teens, early 20's. Powell-Pepper & Ryder picks with their swag of picks in the 60's covers Mead & Burgoyne and has them with picks 10 & 12. The pick 27 we inherit covers off Bruce from St Kilda, thus landing two KPPs for pick 12.
Is Howard & Bruce worth breaking up pick 12?
So it plays out something like:
Howard & Bruce, Picks 30 & 48 for role player trades (Isaac Smith, Lachie Murphy types etc), then 41 & 46 to St Kilda for a 2020 2nd
Future: 2020 1st & 4th to GCS - for - 2020 2nd, 3rd, 4th (also pick 54 this year) (draft points increase cover 4 X NGA/Father-Sons)
Draft Selections: 54 (mature ruckman), 84 (Kellett or other young kid) & La Young upgraded
Seven Spots Needed: (1) Picken, (2) Boyd, (3) Morris, (4) Roberts, (5) Webb, (6 & 7) from Williams & Dickson who are uncontracted and/or Jong & Lynch who are contracted
Seems fairly balanced if you're happy to turn Pick 12 into Howard & Bruce.
Are you? Howard can certainly play and I like that he has nearly 50 games under his belt and is 4 years younger than the other prospect we were looking at.
I’m comfortable on the Bruce side of it. With Bruce, Naughton, Schache & JUH I’m happy with our tall forwards with English & JT able to rest down there. I’d want to see Howard believed in as a specialist defender. It seems he wants that too as the inference from the Hun. If that’s what we see, 23yo, 199cm, 96kg, athletic, 45 games, leadership qualities, similar stats to Keath is a good option. I haven’t seen enough of him for complete confidence, but I’m open to seriously looking at it.
Edit: Just digging through stats. In 2018 Howard led to comp for total 1%ers. This year he’s ranked 12 in the comp for most 1%ers per game among Andrews, Davis, Talia, Barass, Hamling, May etc. Some of his career best numbers across his stats are impressive too.
A 2018 snapshot of Howard ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMjX7CiQ3k0
He's almost a Trengove / Lewy Young hybrid. A bit of Trenners' dour resolve with Lewy Young's leap and athleticism. Long arms, loves the fist, brave in the air.
He'd jive well with our swarming defence and be very useful on the big blokes who have a bit too much toe for Trengove.
Certainly a smart, less costly plan B if Keath jilts us.
If you footywire the list one 1%ers on average this year, it’s a whose who of the best defenders. We have no player ahead of him this year (or last year obviously...). The better intercept marks are much lower (McGovern 29th, Keath 49th), so maybe spoils make up a big chunk of 1%ers. But it seems like a good metric those top 15 players.
It must be easy being a Hawthorn recruiter.
"Who are the Bulldogs looking at? Well off him less money to come here instead."
Job done for another year
Any love for Callum Ah Chee? He has apparently asked for a trade and Brisbane are certainly one interested party.
Has played a lot at half back but could possibly fill the small forward box.
I wonder which other club Bruce will choose over us?