Major comebacks in AFL almost a thing of the past, exclusive Champion Data stats reveal

Major comebacks in AFL almost a thing of the past, exclusive Champion Data stats reveal

The spirit of Charlie Sutton is alive in 2020.

The late Footscray legend’s adage: “Shop early and avoid the rush” has rarely been more applicable.

While Sutton probably meant it in more of a physical than a scoreboard sense, the premium on early goals has never been greater.

The mould for shortened matches is largely being cast in the first quarter and some clubs – including Carlton, which is determined to shed its habits of sleepy starts – have investigated the four-goal rule.

The first team to kick four goals has won 81.1 per cent of matches this season. Last week it was 84 per cent before Brisbane Lions, St Kilda and North Melbourne blew promising starts in Round 6.

But last year it was just 65.2 per cent, and that is a sizeable drop.

One football saying that has stood the test of time is that the first team to reach 100 points usually wins. Well, in 2020 that has been slashed to four majors.

Port Adelaide (4-0), Geelong (3-0), Collingwood (3-0) and Richmond (3-0) are all undefeated when they get to four goals first, although the Magpies and Tigers drew in Round 2.

In every Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Melbourne and West Coast game this season – all 22 of them – the first team to four goals has ended up singing the song.

Premiership coach Damien Hardwick has repeatedly reminded his players of the heightened importance of fast starts.

“It is really hard once you’re behind to catch up,” Hardwick said last week.

“(The game) certainly does move quick. The quarters end up much shorter and the players are pretty fresh at the end of it.”

Hardwick’s last point is critical.

The tidal-wave comeback where a team overpowers a weary opponent in the final quarter isn’t dead, but it is on life support.

Remember Adelaide’s famous comeback from 22 points down against the tiring Bulldogs at the last change of the 1997 preliminary final?

Don’t expect similar heroics in this year’s finals series.

That’s because players are conditioned to sweat through 120 minutes of footy and yet this year they are only playing about 100 minutes, and with extended breaks.

Some aerobic beasts have woken up the day after matches feeling like they could go again straight away.

That’s an algorithm Gold Coast coach Stuart Dew has been working through – what’s the optimum percentage of game time he should now give his brightest stars?

With the fatigue factor lowered and defensive structures harder than a Rubik’s cube to crack, early goals and the ability to control a game have become football’s version of gold.

Fremantle came from the clouds to roll St Kilda on Saturday, but that was more mental than physical against a Saints team that appears the outlier after letting two 30-point leads slip in six games.

After all, the Saints booted 3.1 deep in the last quarter before Lachie Schultz sealed the Dockers’ win.

The Saints and Dockers have both broken the four-goal rule twice. But most games have been governed by it.

FIRST QUARTER POINTS DIFFERENTIAL THIS SEASON
Every club's points differential in first quarters this year.

Collingwood +100pts (5 first quarters won, 0 losses)

St Kilda +60pts (5-1)

Port Adelaide +52pts (4-2)

*Essendon +29pts (2-2)

Brisbane Lions +23pts (5-1)

West Coast +16pts (3-3)

Geelong +8pts (3-3)

GWS Giants +8pts (3-3)

Western Bulldogs -14pts (3-3)

*Melbourne -15pts (1-4)

Gold Coast Suns -17pts (3-3)

North Melbourne -17pts (2-4)

Richmond -19pts (3-3)

Hawthorn -23pts (2-4)

Carlton -34pts (3-3)

Fremantle -36pts (3-3)

Adelaide -52pts (1-5)

Sydney Swans -69pts (1-5)

*Played one less game

Source: Champion Data