Love your work BT
It’s pretty stupid posturing on a player they don’t want for a four pick upgrade / it makes sense for us to hold our ground here - they do not want to keep him
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Any thoughts on this trade scenario?
https://www.theroar.com.au/2019/10/1...in-six-trades/
Relevant to us is:
Quote:
Put together Bruce, the 2020 second-round pick obtained for Geelong, and St Kilda’s own 2020 second-round pick, and swap it to the Dogs for their 2020 first-rounder and pick 53 this year
Looking at the Keath options above, a left field idea that others have raised but also get a super low deal on Keath.
We’ve missed out on ruck insurance possibly. Experienced tall players, about $200,000. If we were interested in Jenkins as a ruck insurance option, or if his form warrants it as a forward. He’d play for just $200,000 in Victoria, or stay at Adelaide on $600,000 for two more years. What’s having that $1.2M contract off their books worth in trade terms? (Like us & Jade Rawlings) If it meant they took pick 44 on Keath, but, sent back Carlton’s 2020 4th for Jenkins, that’s at least interesting. We secure Keath cheap, we get paid a future late pick to take on Jenkins as cheap depth/ruck insurance option. They save a ton of cash.
This isn’t a sexy trade, but could he do Smith/Nicholls type as cheap ruck depth? Probably. Even still, I’d want something back for it. Even though he’s $400,000 over two years. At Adelaide he’s $1,200,000 over two years. If they’re prepared to offer a favourable trade to save themselves from that, I’d listen. Two years of support for Tim (& Sweet) and forward depth (a year educating JUH at Footscray) on about 1/2 the average afl wage isn’t crazy ONLY if we get Keath cheap and a little something for Jenkins.
We know they don’t want him, or him them, and they don’t want the $1.2M in payments. I wonder if this serves our trade interests on Keath and for cheap ruck insurance (& KPF depth).
I don’t mind this actually - though it looks relatively neutral
Back of the envelope, and loaded with assumptions:
Dogs finish 6th - pick 15 (including 2 compo picks which always seem to happen) is 1,112 points
Saints - bottom 4, argument sake finish 12th. Second pick is 27 w compo - 703 points
Cats - top 4, 2nd for argument sake - pick 33 - 563 points
In this scenario:
Out - 1,112
In - 1,266
We slip below 6th in the above scenario (out of the 8) and it starts to look worse. Suppose that’s the risk and reward.
But - we factor in pick 13 in the draft, Bruce and Keathy George and it seems a safer bet.
I wouldn't be touching any future picks. Next year we will need all the points we can get.
If we cant get Bruce with 32 and Keath with 45 respectively how about this?
1. Dogs trade picks 45, 51 & 53 (839 points) to Port for picks 29 & 66 (733 points)
Port gain extra draft points to secure F/S Jackson Mead expected to be a late 1st or 2nd round pick and move up in the draft.
2. Dogs trade 32 to Adelaide for Keath & pick 49 or Future 3rd.
Adelaide gain a shift up the draft order which is a stated desire of theirs.
3. pick 29 now on traded to Saints for Bruce
So if everyone agrees the outcome for the Dogs
In: Bruce, Keath and pick 49 or Future 3rd, 66
Out: Picks, 32, 45. 51, 53
We hang onto 13 & maintain all our future picks.
I don’t mind it. The only question is whether Dodoro Jr will trade Keath for a 17 pick upgrade. Picks 32 & 66 for Keath & 49 is tempting for them. Pick 32 in, with a downgrade of 49 to 66 (17 spots). Leaves us 13, 49, 89, Bruce & Keath.
Current: 13, 32, 45, 51, 53, 89
This: 13, 49, 89 — Keath & Bruce for 32, 45 down into 49, 51 & 53. Keep Pick 13.
Looks very handy.
McClure saying St Kilda will give Port Picks 12 & 18 - for - Pick 10 Players & Howard/Ryder.
Pick 18 is too close for F/S Mead. This really opens up for us their Picks 18 & 29 for our Picks 13 & Pick 36 DVI (Picks 51, 53)
Leaves us: Picks 18, 29 (Bruce), 32, 44 (Keath), 89
We must have a target for pick 13 that we really want.