2012 Ladder Predictor

[The Bulldogs Bite]

That time of year again to get this thread going. Post yours as you see fit.

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1. Collingwood - Still the best overall squad.
2. Hawthorn - Should challenge, but much depends on a few players (eg. Roughy).
3. West Coast - Still young and improving. Potential to slip.
4. Fremantle - Injury free they should be up there.
5. Geelong - Bit of a slide, but home ground advantage helps.
6. Carlton - Forward half still average. They've got some holes.
7. Essendon - Fair bit of talent with solid KPP stocks. They could slide.
8. Melbourne - Simply have to make the 8.
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9. Sydney - Tough call to have them out. Logically they replace Melbourne or Essendon.
10. North Melbourne - Still not enough class. Harvey's older, Petrie too.
11. Richmond - Nice developing side but hard to see them making the 8. Riewoldt needs help and they haven't got depth in their mids.
12. St. Kilda - Slow, lack skill and no KPD's. Riewoldt/Goddard/Dal Santo keep them from the bottom. Big question mark on Hayes. Could slide further.
13. Adelaide - Bit hard to place. Inconsistent, but talented.
14. Western Bulldogs - Maybe a bit pessimistic. Lot depends on Cooney/Lake, but our forward line may struggle. Hard ask for Gia to boot 40 again.
15. Brisbane - Should be more competitive this year.
16. Gold Coast - Better list than those below them. Maybe finish a spot higher.
17. Port Adelaide - Terrible side.
18. West Sydney - Plenty of lean years ahead.

[Remi Moses]

Good effort there .
I'd have ( as much as it pains me) Carlton top 4
Sydney ahead of Melb( they're tougher)
I think we'll finish about 10 ( lot depends on the two mentioned)
Don't thin WC will finish that high again ( good run with injuries, and Their older players starred)
North Melb ( as much as they talk up their chances ) just haven't got the Quality talls( Petrie and Goldstein aside)haven't got that dash and elite kick of HB.
Richmonds back 6 are their biggest concern and their second tier Mids.
Freo are an interesting one. Will they remain flakey,or will they show some steely resolve?
Around the 8 for mine.Were decimated by injuries last season.
Geelong may slide, lost a lot of experience. Still top 4 material you'd imagine.
Pies and Hawks top 2 for mine. Hawks back 6 are a worry, as they get monstered by a monster. Jarryd Boumann will sort that out!
Pies, Dorks, Handbaggers , navy blue vermin.
The rest you could literally throw a blanket around.
Port, lions, GC , Cement Heads mob bottom 4

[Go_Dogs]

1. Collingwood - to finish top, but no certainty for the flag
2. Hawks - definitely top 4
3. West Coast - as above
4. Geelong - as above, maybe slight decline, another year, some players coming back from serious injury etc
5. Carlton - again around the mark but not quite there
6. Fremantle - could press for top 4, or miss the 8
7. North - think they have a few solid players and good youngsters, around the mark for finals
8. Sydney - could see us being here, and a couple of others but gave Swans the nod for consistency

9. Richmond (ha) - improving midfield, can kick goals, should be a better side
10. Bulldogs - think we could be around the mark for the 8, but how key players perform and kids hold form important
11. Essendon - don't think they'll make finals for some reason, no doubt they will prove me wrong
12. St Kilda - will slide and if one of the key movers get a long term injury it could get pretty ugly
13. Crows - another side that could improve a lot and push for the 8, or fade away meekly
14. Melbourne - another lean year or two, loss of Scully really hurts in the short term
15. Port - don't mind Port, but like Melbourne probably a few years off being a seasoned, competitive outfit
16. Brisbane - do not rate, but may be able to win a few games at home
17. Gold Coast - a few years off
18. West Sydney - a few more off again

[Bulldog Joe]

Too much negative about the Dogs.
The fixture gives us 5 winnable games to start the season and if we snag 4 of 5 we will be hard to stop.

Yes we need better seasons from Lake, Cooney, Higgins etc., but I expect us to be a very competitive side.

I see Fremantle as the improver and expect they will get the better of West Coast, but every side thinks they will either improve or maintain their standard.

No one can rise without someone falling and despite opposition supporters seeing as generally as close to the bottom I truly believe we can challenge for top 4 if we get rolling early.

Find it impossible to categorise the whole league, but see Port as going nowhere and GWS as uncompetitive. Also expect St Kilda to slide more than anyone else. I am prepared to be surprised by more than 1 team.

[AndrewP6]

1. Collingwood - Can't see anyone getting near them.
2. Hawthorn - THink they'll be right up there.
3. Geelong - Surprised me in 2011, I thought they'd slide. Reckon they'll hang around top 3 this year.
4.West Coast - some good improvement from them.
5 Fremantle - Again they surprised me, reckon they'll be a solid top 4. Hopefully Lyon puts the mozz on them.
6. Carlton - Not as great as they think they are (or at least some of their supporters I know!)
7. Essendon - To me, they sort of tease at being really good.
8. Melbourne - Interesting to see what Neeld does with them in the PTS-era (post Tom Scully)
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9. Sydney - Could sneak in the eight, but I had to put them somewhere!
10. St. Kilda - THis may be where I want them to finish (not above us, just missing finals!), rather than where they actually will.
11 Western Bulldogs - Paul might get some improvement, but not enough for us to see September action. Too much improvement required from too many - Higgins, Hargrave, Lake and Cooney (after last year's debacle), Grant, Jones. Can't see us being able to kick enough winning scores. Is Ayce Cordy EVER going to make any impression on the 22?
12.North Melbourne - Not classy enough. Their best are older.
13 Richmond -Have improved, but not enough talent overall
14 Adelaide -Dunno what to make of them. Could surprise me and finish a few spots higher.
15. Brisbane - Don't rate them, and they stole The Beard
16. Gold Coast - Could snag a few that inch them up the ladder.
17. Port Adelaide - Poo.
18. West Sydney - REALLY young and REALLY REALLY OLD.

[Bulldog Joe]

Had another look at this and went through the fixture as I believe when and where you meet other teams really does impact the results.

Perhaps my optimism for the Dogs shows, but I did try to look at on a week to week and collated the results only after going through the entire fixture.

I was even surprised myself by the results I ended up with.

Fremantle - I feel they will be better than West Coast and gave them the derbies, but then found their away games just have more they should win than normal.
Hawthorn Obviously should be right there
Geelong Should remain very good
Western Bulldogs I concede bias, but just like the way the fixture rolls and we will know in the first 6 weeks
West Coast too much advantage at Paterson's and away games in Adelaide (2) and GWS mean something would need to go horribly wrong for them to drop away.
Carlton
Collingwood
The Blues and Pies can suffer from big gamitis and that is why I see them struggling to win top 4 quantity. I also see a high win percentage required (12 wins can miss finals) because of the weaknes I see in the bottom 4 or 5 teams.

Essendon
North Melbourne
Sydney
St Kilda
Brisbane
Adelaide
Gold Coast
Melbourne
Richmond
Port Adelaide
GWS

Of course I expect to be way off and some of my bottom 6 could surprise. I would think Melbourne is most likely to do that as they have lots of good picks and they have had the biggest overhaul in coaching including a quality fitness coach.

[AndrewP6]

Had another look at this and went through the fixture as I believe when and where you meet other teams really does impact the results.

Perhaps my optimism for the Dogs shows, but I did try to look at on a week to week and collated the results only after going through the entire fixture.

I was even surprised myself by the results I ended up with.

Fremantle - I feel they will be better than West Coast and gave them the derbies, but then found their away games just have more they should win than normal.
Hawthorn Obviously should be right there
Geelong Should remain very good
Western Bulldogs I concede bias, but just like the way the fixture rolls and we will know in the first 6 weeks
West Coast too much advantage at Paterson's and away games in Adelaide (2) and GWS mean something would need to go horribly wrong for them to drop away.
Carlton
Collingwood
The Blues and Pies can suffer from big gamitis and that is why I see them struggling to win top 4 quantity. I also see a high win percentage required (12 wins can miss finals) because of the weaknes I see in the bottom 4 or 5 teams.

Essendon
North Melbourne
Sydney
St Kilda
Brisbane
Adelaide
Gold Coast
Melbourne
Richmond
Port Adelaide
GWS

Of course I expect to be way off and some of my bottom 6 could surprise. I would think Melbourne is most likely to do that as they have lots of good picks and they have had the biggest overhaul in coaching including a quality fitness coach.

You're expecting the Pies to go from 1st to 7th? Wow. Haven't they only lost something like 4 games in two years?

[Remi Moses]

I've got a pathological dislike of the Pies as the normal non-pie,can't see them finishing outside the top 4.

[the banker]

First 6 weeks to tell the tale for us. Game one like last year a litmus.

Hawthorn
Collingwood
Freo
Geelong
Blues
West coast
Dogs
Bombers

Dees
Norf
Richmond
Saints
Swans
Adelaide
Lions
Gold coast
Port
Gws

[Bulldog Joe]

You're expecting the Pies to go from 1st to 7th? Wow. Haven't they only lost something like 4 games in two years?

It is hard to maintain form and they approach 2012 with a few potential issues.

What effect will Buckley have?
Will they lose the team effect for personal glory?
Can Jolly come up and without Leigh Brown, who gave them a point of difference over the last 2 years.
Speculation on out of contract players.

How much was the results of the last 2 years about talent and how much was about game plan. Geelong smashed the game plan.

Collingwood also have a tough fixture (without the travel)
I think Hawthorn and Geelong will have their measure and they can drop some of the blockbusters. A loss to each of Carlton, Essendon and Melbourne is on the cards because of the nature of those games to their opponents. Lose to West Coast in Perth and they could lose 8 games without an upset loss to someone like us or Sydney. Because of the weakness at the bottom 10 losses can miss the 8.

Of course they could be dominant and win everything but the teams they must play twice does make it difficult.

[Mantis]

BJ,

Can we have a bet that Collingwood finish above us on the ladder?

I will even give you odds to make it fair.

[Bulldog Joe]

BJ,

Can we have a bet that Collingwood finish above us on the ladder?

I will even give you odds to make it fair.

Not generally keen to bet on that sort of outcome as an either or. However, I might have a couple of wagers on Freo to finish top 4 and us to make the 8 because those are over the odds with the betting agencies.

I think I could effectively get better odds with a few different options there.

Feel free to come back to me through the year and point out how far off I am.

[DragzLS1]

Depending on how fit Lake, Cooney can get and how many games they play along with Morris will be 1 of the key factors on us either scrapping into the 8, or just missing out on the 8. I see us finishing anywhere from 11th - 7th but alot relies on these players and our forward line having a decent run.

As for Freo top 4, I wouldnt mind putting some money on that they have had a very very bad run with injuries.

Collingwood
Hawthorne
Geelong
Freo
West Coast - if they have another good run with injuries
Blues
Sydney
Dogs

Bomber
Melbourne
Adelaide
North
Richmond
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Port
GWS

[LostDoggy]

BJ,

Can we have a bet that Collingwood finish above us on the ladder?

I will even give you odds to make it fair.

I'll bet you $5. Just for kicks.

My top 8 (don't think the rest is 1. easy to pick or 2. of any importance):

1. Hawthorn - injury-free, they are a very dangerous side and I think this year they'll dominate.
2. Geelong - I might have had them lower, but they bite me every year. Every year we think “this year they'll slide” but they surprise us again and again.
3. Collingwood - a few changes, a new coach, won't slip far but won't be top.
4. Carlton - no real focal point up forward, but this just gives them some unpredictability. Lots of talented kids with yet another preseason in them.
5. Fremantle - as TBB said, a quality side when all on the park. Again, lots of talented kids with another preseason in them.
6. West Coast - I may be biased, but agree again with TBB, young and improving and will slide a bit until they find some consistency.
7. Sydney - I like the Swans. I like the way they go about it. They'll be in the 8 this year for sure. Tough, team-first football.
8. Dogs - I've got us in the eight because I truly believe we can do it. I've got us 8th to try and be realistic about it.

Richmond 9th.

Hawks v Carlton GF, Hawks the premier.

[G-Mo77]

Hawks v Carlton GF, Hawks the premier.

Hawthorn/Collingwood Grand Final with Hawks winning IMO.

1. Hawthorn
2. Collingwood
3. Carlton
4. Geelong
5. Essendon
6. West Coast
7. Adelaide
8. Richmond
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9. Fremantle
10. St. Kilda
11. Sydney
12. North Melbourne
13. Melbourne
14. Western Bulldogs (Don't think we'll be anywhere near it this season unfortunately)
15. Brisbane
16. Gold Coast
17. Port Adelaide
18. West Sydney

Positions 7 - 13 I think you could put anywhere in those positions. Pretty certain on the teams 1 - 6 and 14 - 18 will finish in that range give or take a couple of positions.