Where will we finish.

[GVGjr]

I think we need to finish bottom 4, we really need another top 3-4 pick before going back up I reckon. Of course id rather see us win more games but if we can get another high pick.

It's a way of advocating a tanking season which I'm never comfortable with. I'd prefer us to win as many games as we can rather than holding out that we will get an early pick.

[Twodogs]

It depends on if we get improvement at Footscray from any players like Talia/Roberts/Jong/Campbell's/Cordy/Redpath/Hunter/Honeychurch/Smith/Darley/Fuller/Grant/Hrovat/Hamling/Prudden/Kelly that can drive improvement in the senior team. Also the players recruited to the club over the draft/Trade period should improve the team. Guys like Boyd and Biggs should be starting 22 and hopefully a couple of the drafted kids Wil have an impact early on like players have from the last couple of drafts. I'd love to see Caleb Daniel slot into the AFL and look like he's been playing it for years.

I wouldn't be surprised where we finish this year. But I'm more pumped for footy season than I have been in years.

[F'scary]

This is my annual attempt at guessing our wins for the season. You can save the excel spreadsheet if you want to put in your own probabilities for each match (expressed as a percentage) and comments supporting your forecast.

Attachment 578

WB2015.zip

7.5 wins = about 14-15th on the ladder.

[F'scary]

This is my annual attempt at guessing our wins for the season. You can save the excel spreadsheet if you want to put in your own probabilities for each match (expressed as a percentage) and comments supporting your forecast.

Attachment 578

WB2015.zip

7.5 wins = about 14-15th on the ladder.

Just noticed that I mistook Adelaide Oval (AO) for Canberra. Revised the probability downwards accordingly but doesn't make much difference: 7.3 wins as opposed to 7.5 wins before. I think that implies we will win 7 matches as opposed to 7 matches plus a draw

[boydogs]

Very conservative there F'Scary. I think you have severely overrated Collingwood & Gold Coast, we beat them both in 2014 and we can do it again. You've got the same rating against Brisbane both home and away. I think we're a 50/50 chance against West Coast & Adelaide in rounds 1 & 4, both at home against interstate sides outside of the 8

[F'scary]

Very conservative there F'Scary. I think you have severely overrated Collingwood & Gold Coast, we beat them both in 2014 and we can do it again. You've got the same rating against Brisbane both home and away. I think we're a 50/50 chance against West Coast & Adelaide in rounds 1 & 4, both at home against interstate sides outside of the 8

I like your thinking and I adjusted the percentages as you suggest and also made us 50/50 for GC, 40% for Coll and Ess. New result is 8.5 wins which would take us a rung or two above where we finished this year and would have us genuinely "snapping at the heels of the pack" chasing finals spots in 2016.

You are right, I think, I am being pretty conservative - I only have us winning 4 of the 6 "easiest" games. If I increase our probability of beating Stk and Melb from 2/3 to 3/4 and increase BL at home to 2/3, we come to 9 wins - which could have us finishing as high as 10th (2011 we finished 10th with 9 wins, e.g.)

[Bulldog Joe]

I am generally optimistic and look for the positives.

In our first 9 games we have 7 that are winnable, with only Hawthorn and Sydney away looking impossible.

West Coast, Richmond and Adelaide are certainly games we could win, while Fremantle may depend on how they come up. We should win over St Kilda, Melbourne and GWS.

Get some early wins and the confidence that it brings and finals are possible.

[w3design]

Really hard to predict this year.

going by last season and list changes bottom 4 or 5 a formality.

improvement in most of the following:
bonti
mc crae
stringer
wallis
hunter
tallia
roberts
redpath
and we could surprise more than a few

[BornInDroopSt'54]

I predicted that we finish 14-15 but I wouldn't necessarily be disappointed if we finished lower. This year is not about wins but development. I would hate for supporters to turn on the club and Beveridge if we finished in 17th or even bottom. I can imagine a scenario where things don't go our way and those that finished below us last season improve to win more games than us, we finish down the bottom, yet in a couple of seasons we rocket up.

[mjp]

We will be on the fringes of finals action.

There will be some cheap wins against teams that aren't quite prepared for the changes in game-style etc and whilst there is the potential for some almighty beltings our contested ball/tackling numbers over the past couple of years have been strong enough that if our ball movement is even OK we will be competitive.

Backline is a worry but forward line has the potential to create a lot of match-up problems - assuming that Stringer continues to develop. As much as Crameri can be infuriating if he and Stringer are both playing forward, leading high, pushing deep and generally running hard they are going to be incredibly hard to counter...not too many teams have suitable match-ups for one player like those guys let alone two...we could actually kick some pretty reasonable scores. If you think Bontempelli can play the same role as well then our forwards will feature 3 strong marking players with midfield like running capabilities - who is going to play on them? Try and do the match-ups vs Hawthorn and even the premiers will struggle for personnel...but the perennial question since Eade's last year (how will our ball movement inside 50m look) will determine our success or otherwise.

I don't know. Defensively we are still a concern but if Roughead plays down there he is capable enough and if Hamling is even average - coupled with Morris and Murphy we might just be OK.

[ratsmac]

14-16 for mine. This is probably the pessimist in me thinking we will finish low. But in saying that I am quietly confident that we will get some surprise wins. Like a lot of people on here though I think we will lose a few because of the youth and inexperience in the team. I am very excited about this up and coming season to see our future unfolding before our eyes.

[F'scary]

Boydogs & MJP have got me thinking more bull(dog)ishly.

Game style and tactics: it has all changed. We have a new coach with a distinctly different approach.

Player spirit: there were big problems off the track last year as we all know. That is clearly in the past now.

Bookends: we have the bookends in Boyd Jnr and Roughead.

CHF: Redpath is going to play the position aggressively and will be one of the most mentioned "bad" guys in the media in 2015. Get ready for the "the Widow-Maker."

CHB: Talia is cherry ripe to emerge as a KPB in 2015. Hamling will grab his chances as another tall back, he is mobile, good overhead and, very importantly, a scrapper.

Other backs: we've got that covered with proven performers in Murphy, Morris, Wood & Picken. Add Biggs in, he is going to be a find.

Midfield quality: Bonti is going to be a monster this year in the centre or RR. Crameri is moving into the midfield, that is where he will primarily play this year - Crameri will give us a cruisin' for a bruisin' line-breaking edge that we thought was lost when the Grifter bailed. Macrae will go up another notch in his 3rd season, the Coondog of 2014 won't be missed. Libba the 2nd is a star. Wallis will be even better in 2015 than he was before the foot injury in 2014. Hrovat will emerge as a star rover.

Midfield depth: Boyd Snr had a big season in 2014 and will still be going strong in 2015. Koby Stevens is a tough, versatile, big bodied mid now with 50 games under his belt. Jong, another big bodied mid has pace to burn and looks like he will be better in 2015. Hunter & Dahlhaus can rotate through the midfield as well as play forward. JJ will continue to improve - he's got the pace, he has to be one of the fastest from a standing start in the competition.

Rucks: Minson looks like he will be back to 2013 AA form. He is trimmer and moving much more freely than 12 months ago. We have Tom Campbell as back up, he is getting better and better, has the tools and can play as a marking forward too.

Forwards: Stringer will kill them this year - he will be getting the 3rd best bigger defender now, they won't be able to hold him. We have some good options for medium sized, skillful types in Grant, Dickson & Hunter - and they all can take an overhead mark too. Dahlhaus is a proven goalsneak, we may even have the luxury of being able to play him primarily in this role this year.

Surprise packets: I guess from training track form, I've already identified Redpath as a surprise packet, but for those who are not aware, Josh Prudden has beefed up noticeably - he is looking more and more like Matt Boyd. If he can stay fit we may have another AFL standard inside-mid by the end of the season and one who is a good kick of the ball.

Things can turn around quickly from season to season. The experts get proven wrong year after year.

[Remi Moses]

I'm still advocating we'll finish bottom 4 to 6, but rather pleased we're adopting a quicker game style.
Just reckon with that many players under 100 games that the season becomes a slog in the latter parts .
The backline worries me, as it's full of question marks on players .

[SonofScray]

I feel obliged to vote Premiers for the sake of fanaticism.

Trying to be objective and allowing for the fact the age profile of our list has only got younger this off season (2nd only to GWS?) I'm thinking 6 wins would be a reasonable guess. If we're in the game more regularly, with luck and solid improvement from our key guys like Stringer, a match winner IMO, we might get a few extra.

[LostDoggy]

$13 top 8
$251 top 4
Why not?