Friday Night: In your heart of hearts: Win it? Lose it?

[Ozza]

Currently 17-0. Anyone having a wager on said win?

Already have.

[bulldogtragic]

Already have.

Straight out or margin out of curiosity? A few went margin last week and the boys got them!

[Topdog]

Quietly confident again

[Ozza]

Straight out or margin out of curiosity? A few went margin last week and the boys got them!

I was one who lost due to margin last week, but had said that I'll be very happy to lose my dough and us win by more (never actually thinking we could win by 40+). So I'm going with the same winning (actually losing) formula this week. 1-39+. Because if we beat Hawthorn by 40+, a little extra cash will mean absolutely nothing next to the sheer joy!!

1-39 was $3.15 earlier in the week - now into $3.

[Doc26]

It's a big ask to back up last week but I think we can do it.

There's a few real keys for them:

- Gibson with his intercept marking/third man up. We need Cordy to do the job again and keep him isolated.
- Burgoyne is arguably their most damaging player, no matter where he plays, particularly in big moments.
- Mitchell for obvious reasons, but I'd look to quell him rather than try and keep him to 15 posessions. He'll always find the ball but if we can close down his space and push him backwards it'll negate his influence.
- Rioli. Genuine match winner.

We need Stringer to have a really good game and we need a contribution from our 22. I think Bevo and the group will be ready again.

Breust is also someone we need to quell, such an opportunist around goals and a momentum turner, and like Rioli also brings a lot of forward pressure which they thrive on. In fact their three small forwards Rioli, Breust and Puopolo can be incredibly damaging.

[The Doctor]

Never will we have a better chance to beat a champion team. Despite our own fitness & injury concerns, I see the Hawks are on the ropes. They really had to beat Geelong to give themselves a chance. Now they are vulnerable with their ageing squad and are not the power they were the last 3 years. They miss Roughead badly.

The men of mayhem are back and are a mean hunting pack. We are in this up to our eyeballs.

The dangers are

- The Hawks have a mastermind coach. Clarko is a genius.
- Burgoyne

I think Bevo has the IQ to match Clarko in the tactical game. This will be brilliant to watch

Burgoyne is the dangerman. If it's close going into the last 1/4 I hope we place a hard tag on him. Picken has to go to him surely?

I would also send Clay Smith to Hodge.

[Eastdog]

I voted for win it and make that 35 votes.

I believe we can do it

[LostDoggy]

How much did you stand to win?

Got on him when I think he was about 20-1.
So $1000 large

[bulldogtragic]

Got on him when I think he was about 20-1.
So $1000 large

Bloody hell, we should've challenged the suspension in the Supreme Court for you as well as Turtle.

[Smads57]

I have been considering the times we have played in finals and lost, played Hawthorn in finals and lost etc. It MUST be our turn this week (swings and roundabouts).

Far more confident against Hawthorn (versus Geelong)

[DOG GOD]

For me, it comes down to the influence of Rioli and Puopolo. We cant have them one out in the forward 50, playing a pagans paddock style of game, where the ball goes over the back to allow them to run on to it. As much as Burgoyne has the influence, to me, its these 2 that we HAVE to stop. If they kick 6 between them, we are in trouble.

Hodge and Lewis in particular will be given free reign by Clarkson to come out aggressive and dirty, and for this, id almost start stringer or smith in the centre, otherwise I feel their intimidation on the likes of bonti, hunter and libba wont be pretty.

[Happy Days]

Honestly, I think we lose, for a number of reasons;

- When you play Hawthorn in September, you're not really playing Hawthorn as much as you're playing this idea of Hawthorn, all-conquering triple premiership deities. I know most statistical measures suggest a decline, but if not for one kick at the end of the game we aren't playing them this week. I won't believe they're dead until I see them go in the ground.

- We are still significantly injured, and put a lot of miles into some sore bodies last week. I'm worried about how we hold up.

- Speaking of that last play last week; that ball movement looks not only exactly like what cost us in round 3, but what could cost us playing our style on a bigger ground. The same concerns I had last week about our press not holding up to a ground of larger dimensions weren't fully eroded as much as my suspicions of West Coast being built for off-broadway were confirmed. Having to play deeper into the wings will see greater holes opened up through the middle, and with it a very real potential of Birchall-to-Burgoyne-to-Hodge-to-Gunston-to-Goals all night long.

We were excellent last week in getting back to our style of scoring from forward entries and sweating the ball carrier everywhere, but I'm highly uncertain of us winning this week. Not that we aren't backing up, more that this side at this ground puts the fear of god (not the band) into me.

[Mantis]

HD,

Whilst I too aren't feeling super confident for some of the reasons mentioned, the aura of Hawthorn, the bigger (wider) ground, etc.. I'm learning, as hard as it is as a Dogs fan, too have a little faith.

No reason at all that we don't win this week.. We play with manic pressure, we stick our tackles and we respect the ball and we win this game.. We will get our hands on the ball, what we do with decides our fate.. But I'm confident that we have enough quality players that they will make the right call... We are young and inexperienced opposed to the Dawks, but shit teams don't go to Perth and belt the Eagles off the park.. They don't.

So have some faith such that when you're making your way to the 'G that you are doing so knowing our team will take some beating.. And at some time the champ gets knocked the *!*!*!*! out.. It's about time we did some punching.

[comrade]

There is an end to every era. One moment where it was kind of inconceivable that it would ever actually happen...until it did. Happened to Brisbane, happened to Geelong (though of course they've bounced back). It will happen to the Hawks. Let's make Friday that moment.

The other thing that throws a spanner in the works is the bye and subsequent 8 day break for us. This has added a whole new dimension to the finals and gives the lower placed teams a better chance at knocking off the higher rated teams.

Remember there was only a few games separating 1st and 7th. Hawks had bugger all percentage on us too.

Yeah, they should have won last week but that says more about Geelong, IMO.

We're not too far off them and at our best, we can definitely put them to the sword. We turned a 5 goal deficit into a 3 goal lead last time we played. We can score on this team.

We have the coach, we have the star power and we have the Bont.

If we win Friday, literally anything can happen after that.

[Nuggety Back Pocket]

Breust is also someone we need to quell, such an opportunist around goals and a momentum turner, and like Rioli also brings a lot of forward pressure which they thrive on. In fact their three small forwards Rioli, Breust and Puopolo can be incredibly damaging.

These 3 players together with Gunston makes up a very talented Hawthorn attack. I would start Morris on Rioli, Biggs to Puopolo, JJ on Bruest and Wood to take Gunston.