Originally Posted by
boydogs
Top 2 is out of reach now. Most we can get is 56 points. Adelaide already have 58. GWS & Richmond have 52 and Geelong has 50. Geelong play both GWS & Richmond, and would need to win both to stop GWS & Richmond getting to 56 but would then be on 58 themselves
If we win our remaining 3 games, the highest we can finish is 3rd, and the lowest we can finish is 6th. We are currently 7th and play Port who we would go past if we beat them
To pass Sydney we need them to lose one of Freo (H), Adel (A), Carl (H) so their R22 game against Adelaide is key
To pass Geelong we need them to lose two of Rich (H), Coll (A), GWS (H), their R21 and R23 games are key
To pass Richmond we need them to lose all of Geel (A), Freo (A), StK (A)
To pass GWS we need them to lose all of WB (A), WCE (H), Geel (A)
Only 3 of those things can happen as Geelong play GWS & Richmond. If 3 happen we finish 3rd, if 2 happen we finish 4th, if 1 happens we finish 5th, if none happen we finish 6th
If we win 2 of our remaining games we get to 52 points. Adelaide, GWS & Richmond already have 52 so the highest we could finish is 4th. As far down as St Kilda can get to 52 points by winning their remaining games, however St Kilda play Melbourne next week so at least one won't get to 52, so the lowest we could finish is 10th
To pass St Kilda we need them to lose one of Melb (A), NM (H), Rich (A) OR win them all but not make up ~63 points on our percentage
To pass Melbourne we need them to lose one of StK (H), BL (H), Coll (A), R21 v StK is key
To pass West Coast we need them to lose one of Carl (H), GWS (A), Adel (H), R22 v GWS is key
To pass Essendon we need them to lose one of Adel (H), GC (A), Freo (H), R21 v Adel is key
To pass Sydney we need them to lose two of Freo (H), Adel (A), Carl (H), would need an upset in R21 or R23
To pass Port Adelaide we need them to lose two of Coll (H), WB (A), GC (H), would need an upset in R21 or R23
To pass Geelong we need them to lose all of Rich (H), Coll (A), GWS (H)
At least 1 of those things must happen with St Kilda playing Melbourne. If all 7 happen we finish 4th, if 6 happen we finish 5th, if 5 happen we finish 6th, if 4 happen we finish 7th, if 3 happen we finish 8th, if 2 happen we finish 9th, if 1 happens we finish 10th