The Moving/Rolling Trading & Delisting Thread 2018

[GVGjr]

Just looking ahead then we have Cordy Wood Adams Naughton Young and Trengove all in the backline with Williams, JJ Suckling and Richards as the flankers. Um What gives? Should we start developing Young as a forward? thoughts?

I'd probably prefer Cordy as the forward but Young or Adams might make that transition.

[jeemak]

Just looking ahead then we have Cordy Wood Adams Naughton Young and Trengove all in the backline with Williams, JJ Suckling and Richards as the flankers. Um What gives? Should we start developing Young as a forward? thoughts?

Add Collins to that, who may get another year.

[kruder]

I'd probably prefer Cordy as the forward but Young or Adams might make that transition.

Yeah it will be definitely one of those three, will be very interesting to see the coaching groups approach. I just think if it is Young then start playing him as at forward at VFL level now. I've noticed they have started with Roberts. They should also play Webb exclusively as a forward at VFL level also, he will never make it as a inside mid and we have plenty of back flankers as discussed. Obviously its best for the VFL team he plays as a mid as we are short mids on the list but if he is to make it on our list it has to be as a forward.

[Mantis]

he got quite a few possessions against the dees and a lot of them contested. he made some poor kicks, but he was involved pretty consistently throughout the game. I think he could improve as someone plays in the forward half of the ground which I guess at the moment is out of his comfort zone, but realistically, who is pushing him out of that position? nobody.

For a player who has pretty much only one trick in his ability to run & carry (which is close to league best when on song) to have only 8 kicks is extremely poor... and although I don't have access to stats from re-collection I would think only about half of these hit the intended target/ were effective.

[bornadog]

For a player who has pretty much only one trick in his ability to run & carry (which is close to league best when on song) to have only 8 kicks is extremely poor... and although I don't have access to stats from re-collection I would think only about half of these hit the intended target/ were effective.

9 Kicks, 15 handballs, 12 cont.poss, 75% Disp efficiency

[Mofra]

Yeah it will be definitely one of those three, will be very interesting to see the coaching groups approach. I just think if it is Young then start playing him as at forward at VFL level now. I've noticed they have started with Roberts. They should also play Webb exclusively as a forward at VFL level also, he will never make it as a inside mid and we have plenty of back flankers as discussed. Obviously its best for the VFL team he plays as a mid as we are short mids on the list but if he is to make it on our list it has to be as a forward.

Adams has had a few stints forward and seemed quite good as a leading forward, but really with his injury issues we just need to find a way to get consistent, injury free football from him at any level before we start banking on him making a difference to our side.

[Topdog]

9 Kicks, 15 handballs, 12 cont.poss, 75% Disp efficiency

Unfortunately that tells us nothing about his kicks and their effectiveness.

Only 265 metres gained though which is really his best attribute. I really like him as a player but he is playing well below his best.

[stefoid]

For a player who has pretty much only one trick in his ability to run & carry (which is close to league best when on song) to have only 8 kicks is extremely poor... and although I don't have access to stats from re-collection I would think only about half of these hit the intended target/ were effective.

He is evasive in traffic, covers heaps of ground, applies himself defensively, and has some aerial ability, is a fairly reliable shot on goal. far from a one trick pony.

but yeah. Its a different gig for him. From the back half -
- your opponents are more worried about scoring than stopping you.
- as you go forward the ground is getting wider, and there are more free options to kick to

And we saw what happened to JJ last year when the opposition made a point of being more worried about stopping him than scoring. They stopped him. So improving ball winning ability is crucial for him. But his stats against Melbourne are encouraging in that regard. Of course if you are winning more hardball, you are going to be handballing more as a result. Obviously we would like him to play to his strengths - receive, run and kick - but its great to see he might have a plan B.

The guy has to learn to play midfield after a career of playing in the back half.
Thru the middle of the ground, the ground narrows, and the options ahead of you are few and difficult to hit. Its a way harder proposition to hit up a target with a long kick from the midfield. Particularly the headless chooks that currently make up our forward line.

But given the number of half backs we have on tap, I reckon we persist with JJ as a mid. Even with vast room for improvement, he is still one of our best options there. What have we got to lose?

[GVGjr]

While we are only about half way through the season I thought I'd start to have a look at some scenario's come the end of the season.

Free agents excluding rookies

Clay Smith, Dale Morris, Fergus Greene, Jordon Roughead, Kieran Collins, Lin Jong, Luke Dahlhaus, Matthew Suckling, Mitch Wallis
Shane Biggs, Tom Liberatore, Tom Campbell and Tory Dickson. Thats 13 players

On top of that there must be some question marks on Fletcher Roberts, Jack Redpath and Lukas Webb who are contracted through 2019.

There are good arguments to keep a lot of these players

Wallis is being linked to a couple of sides, Smith might be on the outer. Collins and Greene could be moved to the rookie list and Biggs seems to be another one on the outer. Campbell might have some suitors and Dickson and Morris might be battling injuries and age.


Rookies
Lynch
R.Smith
Gowers
Mullenger-McHugh

Gowers will be promoted and I'm not sure on Roarke Smith given our Pruden level type patience with him.
Lynch can't get on the park enough and is essentially a back flanker where we have a lot of depth
NMM is a pretty good player but we also have a lot of key position depth

Predicition: MNN and Lynch depart with R.Smith likely which gives us the maximum room on the rookie list.

[Happy Days]

While we are only about half way through the season I thought I'd start to have a look at some scenario's come the end of the season.

Free agents excluding rookies

Clay Smith, Dale Morris, Fergus Greene, Jordon Roughead, Kieran Collins, Lin Jong, Luke Dahlhaus, Matthew Suckling, Mitch Wallis
Shane Biggs, Tom Liberatore, Tom Campbell and Tory Dickson. Thats 13 players

On top of that there must be some question marks on Fletcher Roberts, Jack Redpath and Lukas Webb who are contracted through 2019.

There are good arguments to keep a lot of these players

Wallis is being linked to a couple of sides, Smith might be on the outer. Collins and Greene could be moved to the rookie list and Biggs seems to be another one on the outer. Campbell might have some suitors and Dickson and Morris might be battling injuries and age.

Before considering draft and trade strategy, you'd think that Dahl, Libba and Suckling would be retained. I'd keep Dickson too but his body is starting to pose hard questions. Biggs will almost certainly be given another seniors opportunity at some point, which if he takes then he would stay too. Wallis sure seems like he's on the way out, but he could easily be retained. If Morris can go again and he wants to then I would probably keep him.

I think Jong will be retained but he's never going to be anything better than our 20th best player. I think he possibly maybe should go.

I would cut Roughead without hesitation - is not quick enough to defend, not impactful enough in attack, and it's becoming painfully obvious he can't go in the ruck. It's a shame because he's clearly a quality person, but he isn't good enough.

Smith and Campbell both deserve a chance to test their abilities as of 2017 in the seniors. I actually have Campbell ahead of Roughead at the moment, and Smith when fit theoretically can be a useful (yet severely limited) small forward. But if either of them go then I wouldn't lose sleep. Plus I strongly suspect Smith's body is shot.

Willing to give Collins a proper look once he's back from injury - actually showed a bit towards the end of last year and had much improved movement.

Greene is an easy cut.

Rookies
Lynch
R.Smith
Gowers
Mullenger-McHugh

Gowers will be promoted and I'm not sure on Roarke Smith given our Pruden level type patience with him.
Lynch can't get on the park enough and is essentially a back flanker where we have a lot of depth
NMM is a pretty good player but we also have a lot of key position depth

Predicition: MNN and Lynch depart with R.Smith likely which gives us the maximum room on the rookie list.

I would cut all of these guys - at absolute most keep Gowers on the rookie list.

[GVGjr]

I wonder if we were to cut Collins and Greene would we consider trying to get them on the rookie list?

Happy Days, how many players would you want to be moved on?

[Sedat]

Gowers divides the woof community even more than Suckers does. Surely he could not have done more to at least retain his place on the rookie list for another 12 months. He has come off 3 years in the system, the first 2 wiped out by injury and the 3rd showing significant improvement in a part-time system. He's backed that up with another strong step forward in his first year at AFL senior level. If he can continue to grow his fitness base there's no reason why he can't continue to improve. He's by no means the finished article but worth persisting with for at least another 12 months IMO.

There are several players whose careers are on the line in the next 11 weeks. I think we will be very active players in the off-season, and frankly we need to be.

[GVGjr]

Gowers divides the woof community even more than Suckers does. Surely he could not have done more to at least retain his place on the rookie list for another 12 months. He has come off 3 years in the system, the first 2 wiped out by injury and the 3rd showing significant improvement in a part-time system. He's backed that up with another strong step forward in his first year at AFL senior level. If he can continue to grow his fitness base there's no reason why he can't continue to improve. He's by no means the finished article but worth persisting with for at least another 12 months IMO.

There are several players whose careers are on the line in the next 11 weeks. I think we will be very active players in the off-season, and frankly we need to be.

Gowers deserves a promotion and as you say the worst case scenario is that he stays on the rookie list. Suckling has probably had his best ever season and has probably only had two poor games so far this season. One of the biggest improvers this season along with Williams and McLean.

Back to Gowers and his turnaround in form, it's one of the reasons why think we might need to exercise more patience Collins.

[Happy Days]

I wonder if we were to cut Collins and Greene would we consider trying to get them on the rookie list?

Happy Days, how many players would you want to be moved on?

I don't see the point in hanging onto Greene and it's exactly the sort of overly-persistent move we've been guilty of for the last 20 years that has us in this difficult list management position now.

Ideally we'd look to cut 6-7 guys, but we're in a pretty delicate spot, given that we'll likely only draft 3 players (due to having to have enough points for Kamis and West and - if I've understood correctly - having no second round pick), and with the guys coming out of contract next year, a likely deep cut at next season's end. These factors could likely save guys on the bubble like Biggs and Jong.

I think the most preferential option is trading guys like Jong and Wallis for picks to accumulate points for West and Kamis, and try to snag an additional pick from somewhere in the 2nd-3rd round.

[GVGjr]

I don't see the point in hanging onto Greene and it's exactly the sort of overly-persistent move we've been guilty of for the last 20 years that has us in this difficult list management position now.

Ideally we'd look to cut 6-7 guys, but we're in a pretty delicate spot, given that we'll likely only draft 3 players (due to having to have enough points for Kamis and West and - if I've understood correctly - having no second round pick), and with the guys coming out of contract next year, a likely deep cut at next season's end. These factors could likely save guys on the bubble like Biggs and Jong.

I think the most preferential option is trading guys like Jong and Wallis for picks to accumulate points for West and Kamis, and try to snag an additional pick from somewhere in the 2nd-3rd round.

My view with Greene is that he was always going to take a few years to see his value. He has good pace, endurance and he is a very good kick. I don't think 2 years is enough to gauge him correctly.

6 or 7 seems to be the right number although based on form and where we are likely to finish there would be a few very lucky players to survive. We weren't forceful enough last year but we probably can't overdo it this year because we don't want too many players selected from the back end of the draft.