Thanks Thanks:  67
Likes Likes:  67
Page 1 of 16 1234511 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 228
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    24,530
    Post Thanks / Like

    BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Last year I gave the very, very, very early list management thread a go. This year I'm going around again, but in more detail and across 2019 & 2020. I can't predict someone walking out or demanding a trade, so there's an element that can't be covered.

    First I'll give my overview, then the discussion:

    OVERVIEW

    2019:

    Must Sign:
    Dunkley, Williams, Daniel, Greene, Liberatore, Bailey Dale, Lewis Young

    Movement Out: Main List

    1. Morris (ret.)
    2. Dickson (ret.)
    3. Picken (ret.)
    4. Suckling (ret. > NFL)
    5. Webb (delist > Rookie List)

    Movement Out: Rookie List

    1. Roarke Smith (Effectively replaced by Webb)

    Question marked currently: Roberts, Porter (2)


    Potential Movement In:

    Direct Access: Father/Son Options:
    Kellett, Liberatore, Kolynuik, Romero (4 potential recruits)

    Current Draft Picks (Indicative range): Picks 12, 30, 46, 48, 51, 84 (& Duryea for pick 66)


    2020:


    Must Sign:
    Naughton, English, Schache, Wood, Gowers, Smith, West, Trengove

    Potential Move Out - But Too Early (Main List): Jong, Lynch, Vandermeer, Cavarra, Hayes (5)
    Potential Move Out - But Too Early (Rookie List): Young, Sweet, Khamis (all three assessed after 2 seasons) (3)


    Potential Movement In:

    Direct Access:
    Father/Son Options: MacPherson / NGA: Stevens, McDonald, Ugle-Hagan (4 potential recruits)

    Current Draft Picks: Rounds 1-6


    DISCUSSION:


    2019

    Salary Cap:


    Once upon a time it was called the 'Hurley Money', but now it's the 'Wingard Money'. Approximately $900,000 over 5 years, currently in the bank. If the potential retirees are retired, my wild guess is that they'd be on around $300,000 to $350,000 at most. If I take the lesser figure there's $1.2M extra in the cap, plus cap rise. This figure should allow us to re-sign our musts in 2019 and strongly contribute towards signing our musts in 2020.

    Father/Sons: With our war chest of mid range picks, we've got whomever we want covered I'd suggest.

    Possible Targets:

    Scenario 1:


    Package 1st Rounders 2019 & 2020 for someone like Josh Kelly. The picks are there, the salary cap is about there. It's a bit of an 'all in' strategy though. If we feel we need another A Grader, this might be a live option. If we feel we need to hit the first round of the draft again, then scenario 2 might appeal.


    Scenario 2:

    Keep our first rounders. Then look to the free agency pool. Use a good chunk of the 'Wingard Money' here, and move the balance to re-signing other players in 2020.

    Adam Tomlinson - Free Agent

    With the movement out of Morris, Collins, Adams, maybe Fletch, Hamling and if Naughton stays forward. We have a huge need for an experienced tall. Tomlinson seems like a Bevo type, not a hulking defender, but at 194cm and 96kg, he moves well, prefers to kick and goes at about 76% efficiency. Paired with Cordy, Wood &/or Young.

    Alex Sexton - Free Agent

    An attempt to try to cover the loses of Picko & Dicko. A mature player, averaging about a goal a game over his 98 games to date. Like Lloyd, can take a run further up the ground too. Seems like a fit to another need.


    Under scenario 2, we attend to our needs with a tall Bevo type defender and mature mid sized goal kicking mid sized player. We've kept our first rounder, secured our desired Father/Sons and taken some more young talent.


    2020:

    Salary Cap:


    Under either scenario I don't see a lot of issues for Power. I think his acumen was on display at the draft and understand small details and exploiting systems to sign all we need to sign by 2020.


    Scenario 1:

    If it was like a Shiel type trade for an A Grade Mid, we'd be seeking a second rounder back. This might make life difficult in securing MacPherson and Ugle-Hagan, plus Stevens or McDonald with just a couple of second round picks and a third if they excel next year. We'd have to get creative to amass more points.


    Scenario 2:

    So looking at the Tomlinson/Sexton type mature depth to the list, we are still holding on to our first rounder in 2020. This should give us the draft points necessary in 2020 without doing too much. We secure MacPherson and Ugle-Hagan, plus Stevens or McDonald.


    I guess fleshing out the matters for consideration, we are looking very good from the salary cap perspective, and with 8 Father/Sons or NGA players, we have a line on a good numbers of kids. Our kids are good, we've got a few mature role players lately too (Trengove, Lloyd, Duryea, Crozier etc). But the list is off balance even more so if Naughton stays forward, and likely retirements open up more needs like tall defenders (which Bevo will play) and a mid sized goal a game forward who can take a run up further. The question seems to be whether the preference is to head hunt another A Grader with the picks/cap we have, or address a couple of needs and use the balance of cap on retaining kids and keep hitting the first round of the draft for another 2 years. I suspect the answer lies in whether you think we are a threat next year, or if we are another 2-3 years off seriously challenging for top 4.

    At this stage, I see more value in addressing key needs, holding back a few more dollars for others, holding top range picks, taking the Father/Sons & NGAs we want for two years and developing the talent on the list. Then see what, if anything we have in the cap from 2021 hopefully topping up for a sustained assault for many seasons for another flag.
    I drank the slab that Bon Scott drunk
    I injected some of Hendrixs junk
    I booked a seat on Lynyrd Skynyrds plane
    Mama Cass's sandwich? Ate the same

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Wherever the dogs are playing
    Posts
    40,212
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    I would say Bailey Dale needs to prove himself. I am not sold yet that he will be a consistently good player. He is in his 5th year at the club and only played 40 games. I know he has missed through injury, but for me make or break in 2019
    Last edited by bornadog; 28-03-2019 at 09:37 PM.
    Premierships: AFL 1954, 2016 VFA - 1898,99,1900, 1908, 1913, 1919-20, 1923-24, VFL: 2014, 2016 . Champions of Victoria 1924. AFLW - 2018.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    2,326
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Quote Originally Posted by bornadog View Post
    I would say Bailey Dale needs to prove himself. I am not sold yet that he will be a consistently good player. He is in his 5th year at the club and only played 40 games. I know he has missed through injury, but for me break or break in 2019
    Agree. Dale was very poor last year and will have to show substantial improvement to retain a spot on the list.
    Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgment.

  4. Likes bornadog liked this post
  5. #4
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    1,175
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    We will have gone very well this year if we can afford to move Suckling out. Good effort though BT and well researched.

    If we do have money for a big fish there is always someone who pops up. The key is being in to them early enough to put us on their radar. A promising season on field will help.

  6. Thanks bulldogtragic thanked for this post
    Likes Raw Toast liked this post
  7. #5
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Shanghai
    Posts
    8,807
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Quote Originally Posted by bulldogtragic View Post
    Last year I gave the very, very, very early list management thread a go.
    4. Suckling (ret. > NFL).
    Thanks for all the hard work put into this post. Really interesting reading. NFL? I think that is being generous to his kicking which I have not been that impressed with.
    "We've got to be good in the phone box, and good in the tardis" - Pearls of wisdom from Luke Beveridge.

  8. Thanks bulldogtragic thanked for this post
  9. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    24,530
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Ghost Dog View Post
    Thanks for all the hard work put into this post. Really interesting reading. NFL? I think that is being generous to his kicking which I have not been that impressed with.
    Suckers is a bit of a guess, I've based the call on media mentions on the idea on him going to the NFL. A few articles say he's got an intense interest in going there and has been over to the states to investigate it. Plus he only signed a one year deal year last year. So as I say it's a bit of guess, but a semi-educated guess.
    I drank the slab that Bon Scott drunk
    I injected some of Hendrixs junk
    I booked a seat on Lynyrd Skynyrds plane
    Mama Cass's sandwich? Ate the same

  10. #7
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    24,530
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Quote Originally Posted by bornadog View Post
    I would say Bailey Dale needs to prove himself. I am not sold yet that he will be a consistently good player. He is in his 5th year at the club and only played 40 games. I know he has missed through injury, but for me make or break in 2019
    Quote Originally Posted by The Doctor View Post
    Agree. Dale was very poor last year and will have to show substantial improvement to retain a spot on the list.
    I think the issue with Bailey Dale, is that on my thoughts above, is that we might be looking at 6-7 list movements out before the question of Dale comes up. That's 14 delisting/retirements over 2 years. That might be enough. I'd consider him for a trade, but I don't see him worth anything worthwhile. Others like Jong have been able to extend out a bit passed what they've shown. So I think he's worth keeping as depth. Equally, another team might try to grab him on the cheap. If he has an injury free good year, then he gets signed up
    I drank the slab that Bon Scott drunk
    I injected some of Hendrixs junk
    I booked a seat on Lynyrd Skynyrds plane
    Mama Cass's sandwich? Ate the same

  11. #8
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Warragul
    Posts
    3,864
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Quote Originally Posted by bulldogtragic View Post
    Suckers is a bit of a guess, I've based the call on media mentions on the idea on him going to the NFL. A few articles say he's got an intense interest in going there and has been over to the states to investigate it. Plus he only signed a one year deal year last year. So as I say it's a bit of guess, but a semi-educated guess.
    According to the man himself just a few months back:
    "I want to play in the AFL as long as I can, and if I do play for a few years it might take (an NFL career) out of the question, but if my footy career did get cut short, then it would be something I would look at," Suckling told AFL.com.au.
    Link

    Sounds like if his body holds up and the club still wants him he will play on.

  12. #9
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Warragul
    Posts
    3,864
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    This will be Webb's fifth year on the list. By all accounts he will be ready to go soon so should have plenty of opportunity to show whether he deserves a list spot going forward. Surely we will have enough information to make an informed decision after all this time.

    So either he proves his worth and he gets another contract, or he is delisted. Please no moving him to the rookie list for a year or two before we delist him anyway like we have with others as it has never worked.

  13. Likes bornadog liked this post
  14. #10
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    24,530
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Watch this space.
    I drank the slab that Bon Scott drunk
    I injected some of Hendrixs junk
    I booked a seat on Lynyrd Skynyrds plane
    Mama Cass's sandwich? Ate the same

  15. #11
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    24,530
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Axe Man View Post
    This will be Webb's fifth year on the list. By all accounts he will be ready to go soon so should have plenty of opportunity to show whether he deserves a list spot going forward. Surely we will have enough information to make an informed decision after all this time.

    So either he proves his worth and he gets another contract, or he is delisted. Please no moving him to the rookie list for a year or two before we delist him anyway like we have with others as it has never worked.
    I personally agree in principle. But since Bevo has got here we've almost held a rookie list spot for a good kid with some bad injuries. I can see Webb being a candidate for that spot, moving Smith on. Bevo must see it as a culture thing. I'd move him on if we don't see anything, but I suspect he's a candidate for the good guy with a history of injuries spot. I wouldn't do it, but I can see how the club might.
    I drank the slab that Bon Scott drunk
    I injected some of Hendrixs junk
    I booked a seat on Lynyrd Skynyrds plane
    Mama Cass's sandwich? Ate the same

  16. #12
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Mulligan's Boogie-board
    Posts
    8,914
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Dale has been talked up internally, he'd have to do a lot wrong for us to let him go.
    Webb can count himself lucky he has a contract for this year. I just don't think he makes the transition to senior football effectively despite excellent VFL form.

    Lachie Young gets another gig as per the news today. I'd expect Sweet just needs to show any improvement to get another year too considering how light on we are for rucks.

    As for the FA targets, I absolutely agree with Sexton and would seriously consider Rory Thompson provides defensive cover and I imagine he's gettable, albeit coming off an ACL so is not without risk.

    We also need a 'medium' forward and as awful as he was in round 1, we should watch the VFL closely to see how Mason Wood fares. I don't rate North's development so he seems the type that could improve in our program.

    We have a lot of under-developed talent on our list that aren't getting games (Lippi the obvious one and I think Ghosty has the attributes to make it) so I suspect we'll "draft and develop" for a while yet.

    Plus we get future superstar Ugle-Hagen in 2020
    Western Bulldogs: 2016 Premiers

  17. Likes GVGjr liked this post
  18. #13
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    sydenham
    Posts
    10,547
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Cut Sexton out he just re-signed with GC.
    Was Tom Boyd’s contract front ended ? If so it will give us more money in the kitty.
    Bring back the biff

  19. #14
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Wherever the dogs are playing
    Posts
    40,212
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Quote Originally Posted by ledge View Post
    Cut Sexton out he just re-signed with GC.
    Was Tom Boyd’s contract front ended ? If so it will give us more money in the kitty.
    We will need it to hold on to Naughton, Libba, Bont, Macrae
    Premierships: AFL 1954, 2016 VFA - 1898,99,1900, 1908, 1913, 1919-20, 1923-24, VFL: 2014, 2016 . Champions of Victoria 1924. AFLW - 2018.

  20. #15
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Melbourne
    Posts
    8,692
    Post Thanks / Like

    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Dale v Webb is an interesting discussion.

    From the same draft, Dale has shown a lot more at AFL level (although inconsistently, particularly early 2018 after a bright 2017). If we were to keep one and delist one, where do people see it landing?

    I've got a bias for Dale because of the fact I had him pegged during the TAC and think he has the tools for the modern game.
    #bemorebulldog

    Men of Mayhem

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •