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  1. #16
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    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Go_Dogs View Post
    Dale v Webb is an interesting discussion.

    From the same draft, Dale has shown a lot more at AFL level (although inconsistently, particularly early 2018 after a bright 2017). If we were to keep one and delist one, where do people see it landing?

    I've got a bias for Dale because of the fact I had him pegged during the TAC and think he has the tools for the modern game.
    I’m a big fan of Dale , would be a great winger and cruising into the forward line taking marks, just injuries have curtailed it , if his body comes good he is a dangerous weapon.
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  2. #17
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    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Go_Dogs View Post
    Dale v Webb is an interesting discussion.

    From the same draft, Dale has shown a lot more at AFL level (although inconsistently, particularly early 2018 after a bright 2017). If we were to keep one and delist one, where do people see it landing?

    I've got a bias for Dale because of the fact I had him pegged during the TAC and think he has the tools for the modern game.
    Dale, but I'm still waiting for sanity to prevail and Webb to be played as a HBF at VFL and AFL level
    If you kicked five goals and Tom Boyd kicked five goals, Tom Boyd kicked more goals than you.

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  3. #18
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    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Quote Originally Posted by bulldogtragic View Post
    Last year I gave the very, very, very early list management thread a go. This year I'm going around again, but in more detail and across 2019 & 2020. I can't predict someone walking out or demanding a trade, so there's an element that can't be covered.

    First I'll give my overview, then the discussion:

    OVERVIEW

    2019:

    Must Sign:
    Dunkley, Williams, Daniel, Greene, Liberatore, Bailey Dale, Lewis Young

    Movement Out: Main List

    1. Morris (ret.)
    2. Dickson (ret.)
    3. Picken (ret.)
    4. Suckling (ret. > NFL)
    5. Webb (delist > Rookie List)

    Movement Out: Rookie List

    1. Roarke Smith (Effectively replaced by Webb)

    Question marked currently: Roberts, Porter (2)


    Potential Movement In:

    Direct Access: Father/Son Options:
    Kellett, Liberatore, Kolynuik, Romero (4 potential recruits)

    Current Draft Picks (Indicative range): Picks 12, 30, 46, 48, 51, 84 (& Duryea for pick 66)


    2020:


    Must Sign:
    Naughton, English, Schache, Wood, Gowers, Smith, West, Trengove

    Potential Move Out - But Too Early (Main List): Jong, Lynch, Vandermeer, Cavarra, Hayes (5)
    Potential Move Out - But Too Early (Rookie List): Young, Sweet, Khamis (all three assessed after 2 seasons) (3)


    Potential Movement In:

    Direct Access:
    Father/Son Options: MacPherson / NGA: Stevens, McDonald, Ugle-Hagan (4 potential recruits)

    Current Draft Picks: Rounds 1-6


    DISCUSSION:


    2019

    Salary Cap:


    Once upon a time it was called the 'Hurley Money', but now it's the 'Wingard Money'. Approximately $900,000 over 5 years, currently in the bank. If the potential retirees are retired, my wild guess is that they'd be on around $300,000 to $350,000 at most. If I take the lesser figure there's $1.2M extra in the cap, plus cap rise. This figure should allow us to re-sign our musts in 2019 and strongly contribute towards signing our musts in 2020.

    Father/Sons: With our war chest of mid range picks, we've got whomever we want covered I'd suggest.

    Possible Targets:

    Scenario 1:


    Package 1st Rounders 2019 & 2020 for someone like Josh Kelly. The picks are there, the salary cap is about there. It's a bit of an 'all in' strategy though. If we feel we need another A Grader, this might be a live option. If we feel we need to hit the first round of the draft again, then scenario 2 might appeal.


    Scenario 2:

    Keep our first rounders. Then look to the free agency pool. Use a good chunk of the 'Wingard Money' here, and move the balance to re-signing other players in 2020.

    Adam Tomlinson - Free Agent

    With the movement out of Morris, Collins, Adams, maybe Fletch, Hamling and if Naughton stays forward. We have a huge need for an experienced tall. Tomlinson seems like a Bevo type, not a hulking defender, but at 194cm and 96kg, he moves well, prefers to kick and goes at about 76% efficiency. Paired with Cordy, Wood &/or Young.

    Alex Sexton - Free Agent

    An attempt to try to cover the loses of Picko & Dicko. A mature player, averaging about a goal a game over his 98 games to date. Like Lloyd, can take a run further up the ground too. Seems like a fit to another need.


    Under scenario 2, we attend to our needs with a tall Bevo type defender and mature mid sized goal kicking mid sized player. We've kept our first rounder, secured our desired Father/Sons and taken some more young talent.


    2020:

    Salary Cap:


    Under either scenario I don't see a lot of issues for Power. I think his acumen was on display at the draft and understand small details and exploiting systems to sign all we need to sign by 2020.


    Scenario 1:

    If it was like a Shiel type trade for an A Grade Mid, we'd be seeking a second rounder back. This might make life difficult in securing MacPherson and Ugle-Hagan, plus Stevens or McDonald with just a couple of second round picks and a third if they excel next year. We'd have to get creative to amass more points.


    Scenario 2:

    So looking at the Tomlinson/Sexton type mature depth to the list, we are still holding on to our first rounder in 2020. This should give us the draft points necessary in 2020 without doing too much. We secure MacPherson and Ugle-Hagan, plus Stevens or McDonald.


    I guess fleshing out the matters for consideration, we are looking very good from the salary cap perspective, and with 8 Father/Sons or NGA players, we have a line on a good numbers of kids. Our kids are good, we've got a few mature role players lately too (Trengove, Lloyd, Duryea, Crozier etc). But the list is off balance even more so if Naughton stays forward, and likely retirements open up more needs like tall defenders (which Bevo will play) and a mid sized goal a game forward who can take a run up further. The question seems to be whether the preference is to head hunt another A Grader with the picks/cap we have, or address a couple of needs and use the balance of cap on retaining kids and keep hitting the first round of the draft for another 2 years. I suspect the answer lies in whether you think we are a threat next year, or if we are another 2-3 years off seriously challenging for top 4.

    At this stage, I see more value in addressing key needs, holding back a few more dollars for others, holding top range picks, taking the Father/Sons & NGAs we want for two years and developing the talent on the list. Then see what, if anything we have in the cap from 2021 hopefully topping up for a sustained assault for many seasons for another flag.
    April Update:

    I still see 5 list turnover spots as the right number. Unfortunately/fortunately for his family, Picken has retired and I don't see how Morris & Dickson demand best 22 spots this time next year and stay best 22 all year. Originally, I sighted Suckers for a move to the NFL which might be in ice and Webb to the rookie list. Both may be trending to arguments of being retained. So other options to get to 5 for me are:

    Porter - If he can't get games or at least dominate VFL games.
    Roberts - If we are going to only play one defender, surely he tries to use free agency for a move elsewhere.
    Dale - Bailey may have some clubs sniffing around. Essendon tried to get him last time.

    Looking at current draft picks, we have 9, 27, 45, 46, 50 & 82. Picks 45 & 46 scream to me, shop them as a 'draft points trade'. The pick, even allowing a modest benefit to another club might bring about something like circa pick 32 +/- to us (if all the different cards fall our way).

    So far only Josh Kellett looks a chance at recruitment. Pick 50 (on points) will get him if he falls passed pick 38, which if drafted today would be most likely. Then there's the option to 'pass' at the draft like Power did last year to either take Kellett if bid on, or try to get to the last pick and take a free hit on someone else and rookie list Kellett.

    Pick 82 could be let go by taking a free agent. Sexton is gone, but I'd still look hard at Tomlinson as a mature Bevo style KPD.

    Giving us something like a targeted FA/Tomlinson, and picks 9, 27, circa 32 & Josh Kellett.

    These mid range 27-32 picks have been very good to us recently, as have picks around pick 9. The question for me is whether Sam Power who last year was offering this year's (now) pick 9 for Wingard, and wanting to spend the Hurley Money on him, will put this pick and this money back on the table this year.

    If Power does, and say it's an absolute A Grader midfielder who can kick well (add in 2020 1st swap then), we'd look at offsetting the loss of a mature defender and midfielder/forward with mature replacements, with a couple of juicy second rounders and a father/son (potential other F/S as Cat B's). I'd be happy with this kind of outcome right now, very early on. There's plenty of kids like MacPherson & Ugle-Hagan to take at the draft the year after, potentially draining a lot of draft points, so trade wise this might be a good year to do it.

    It's still very, very, very, very, very early but the insights of indicative picks is showing that Power has some serious options he and his team need to weigh.
    Last edited by bulldogtragic; 15-04-2019 at 08:22 PM.
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  5. #19
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    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    May Update:

    Five list moves out: Picken (Ret), Morris (Ret), Dickson (Ret), Roberts, Porter (5 out, list vacancies)
    Depth Keepers: we still need some depth, so Webb & Dale might be retains to avoid having a bunch of late picks
    Risks: SA clubs looking at out of contract SA talent like Williams, Daniel & Young
    F/S: Kellett looks like the main possible target at the moment

    Current Picks: 7, 25, 42, 43, 47, 79 (61 given for Duryea)

    Needs: With Roberts gone we have Trengove, Cordy & Young if he re-signs. KPD is one area. Some midfield polish and high pressure, dynamic small forward. Tomlinson seems likely to stay at GWS so that's one door shut.

    Options: I'd still look at packaging two 40's picks for an early pick in the 30's in a draft points trade. So then having something like picks 7, 25, 32ish, 42 & 79. So five picks and five vacancies. Pick 79 offers a back stop to secure Kellett for free if he slides passed pick 52. Pick 42 could slide after compo, so it will be interesting where Kellett's perceived value is and how Sam Power can work it to advantage.

    If someone leaves/retires or we trade/cut a 6th, that could open up a spot for a free agent, but there's only really Cognilio of real quality and I'm guessing he will stay. With the trend of trading players a year before they come free agents, no doubt some names will bob up if we would trade pick 7 (which we offered for Wingard). I don't see the need for more fringe trades, unless there's some need addressed and the club thinks they can get them to another level.

    So I think things are looking good 1/3 through the year from the list side. Another top 10 pick to use or trade, a good second rounder, these three picks in the 40's allow Power to get really creative, probably one F/S, plus a heap of salary cap. But the need remains to sign the SA boys as soon as we can.
    Last edited by bulldogtragic; 05-05-2019 at 07:48 PM.
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  7. #20
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    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    First rounder on best available likely to be a forward/mid as this draft is flush for them.

    We have to ask the question about some of the KPDs that might be available. Sam Day is a genuine swingman but would cost a packet but he has been in and out of the GC Suns team this year.

    Richmond are flush for small forwards - with Dicko gone Lloyd will be 30 at the start of next year, we really need to build our stocks in that area. We need to ask the question there too.
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    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Mofra View Post
    First rounder on best available likely to be a forward/mid as this draft is flush for them.

    We have to ask the question about some of the KPDs that might be available. Sam Day is a genuine swingman but would cost a packet but he has been in and out of the GC Suns team this year.

    Richmond are flush for small forwards - with Dicko gone Lloyd will be 30 at the start of next year, we really need to build our stocks in that area. We need to ask the question there too.
    I was watching Richmond especially close for that reason last night. I was hoping to be impressed with a few gettable ones, but wasn't unfortunately. The other team with a few smaller forwards is Sydney and they need to rebuild quick, so might they offer up a better quality option? I don't know.

    I think three KPFs as right. So Boyd (second ruck), Schache & Naughton is right.
    I think four KPDs is about right. Cordy, Trengove, Young*, vacant (smaller Wood, Crozier, Khamis). But we are also then badly short in the ruck department if Trengove is in the KPD column, with English & Sweet the pure rucks. On the KPD, names I've heard on here include Sam Day and Rory Thompson. I guess do we want a good KPD, or a good depth KPD?
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  9. #22
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    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Quote Originally Posted by bulldogtragic View Post
    I was watching Richmond especially close for that reason last night. I was hoping to be impressed with a few gettable ones, but wasn't unfortunately. The other team with a few smaller forwards is Sydney and they need to rebuild quick, so might they offer up a better quality option? I don't know.

    I think three KPFs as right. So Boyd (second ruck), Schache & Naughton is right.
    I think four KPDs is about right. Cordy, Trengove, Young*, vacant (smaller Wood, Crozier, Khamis). But we are also then badly short in the ruck department if Trengove is in the KPD column, with English & Sweet the pure rucks. On the KPD, names I've heard on here include Sam Day and Rory Thompson. I guess do we want a good KPD, or a good depth KPD?
    Thompson re-signed with the Suns recently, shame as he was a FA even though his ACL isn't without risk.

    Is there anyone good that is gettable? Astbury would cost an absolute packet to prise out of Richmond. Henderson is in the twilight of his career. If we're after depth I'd rather keep Fletch as he knows our system, and draft a kid. You sometimes get lucky with late picks as a defender and I'm a fan of our development program.
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  10. #23
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    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Mofra View Post
    Thompson re-signed with the Suns recently, shame as he was a FA even though his ACL isn't without risk.

    Is there anyone good that is gettable? Astbury would cost an absolute packet to prise out of Richmond. Henderson is in the twilight of his career. If we're after depth I'd rather keep Fletch as he knows our system, and draft a kid. You sometimes get lucky with late picks as a defender and I'm a fan of our development program.
    Agree that a good free agent is going to cost. Sam Day & Astbury are the best ones. Does Bevo's systems and gameplans going forward need a gun KPD, or would the salary cap be better of a Cogs or Jack Martin in the middle? If a quality mid is a priority, perhaps we keep cover in Roberts or look at rookie listing Gardner.

    The other option to play with is doing the reverse on Schache and seeing how he looks in a few VFL games. But if we have Trengove, Cordy, Young (re-signing) and Roberts/Gardner, then we may not need to muck Schache about.

    There's plenty of salary cap for Sam Power, and as is the case always, it's about the priority of players types especially when factoring in what the coach is hoping the team to play in field. I think it's an interesting question ahead.
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  11. #24
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    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Grab Kyle Dunkley I say, very impressed.
    Bring back the biff

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    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Mofra View Post
    Thompson re-signed with the Suns recently, shame as he was a FA even though his ACL isn't without risk.

    Is there anyone good that is gettable? Astbury would cost an absolute packet to prise out of Richmond. Henderson is in the twilight of his career. If we're after depth I'd rather keep Fletch as he knows our system, and draft a kid. You sometimes get lucky with late picks as a defender and I'm a fan of our development program.
    I did one of my favourite things and went through a few other clubs lists looking for a left field KPD idea that isn't on the media landscape (so no free agents, out of contract types). This is left field, so I will explain it a fair bit...

    We showed Boyd could leave after one year. We showed we could get a same year contracted Schache because of home sickness. WCE tried to get Kelly after one year too. Going after a first year player isn't uncommon I guess I'm leading towards.

    Last year we did a medical on Ben King, presumably if Smith went earlier. Maybe he was 'plan a or b'. King also made comments hoping to get to the Dogs. Didn't happen with King going at pick 5. Obviously, he has a twin at St Kilda and family back here he'd maybe like to get to. He hasn't played yet.

    Lots of 'if's'...

    If we have something like pick 5-9 this year. If Ben is homesick. If we still rate him highly. If he still wants to play with us. If we have something else, a second round pick (draft points trade two 3rds into a ok 2nd, around 30's) (help them with a high academy pick) or a fringe player they might like, they've previously pursued Jong hard (Dale?). Offer him a 3 year deal (his second year with an effective 2 year extension). Offer them up our first rounder (a high pick) and the extra bit, and see what happens from there.

    It's expensive in terms of what's needed to pry him out, but the flip side there's still plenty of cap left to go after a quality free agent this year or next. But it would probably lock away our tall stocks and spine for a long time with Ugle-Hagan next year a strong possibility unless the AFEL screw us.

    I'm not betting on this happening, not with my money or even anyone else's money. It's as left field as I could come up with to get a talented young KPD not on the media landscape to contrast the options either recruit free agents vs out of contracted KPDs. But I wonder if it's worth seeing if any of those 'if's' are in play as he looks to be a player. An athletic 202cm KPD would be perfect with Young & Cordy that bit smaller.

    If they retain Sam Day with Thompson re-signing, there's not a blind refusal factor and I'd expect them to listen to offers, probably from St Kilda if they think of it. But if Sam Day leaves, then there's about less than zero chance King leaves under any circumstances I'd guess. If Martin or Wright leaves that could make things interesting again. But they're actually signing some so far this year which is a good sign for them.

    In all, just a thought bubble or discussion point.
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  14. #26
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    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Quote Originally Posted by bulldogtragic View Post
    I did one of my favourite things and went through a few other clubs lists looking for a left field KPD idea that isn't on the media landscape (so no free agents, out of contract types). This is left field, so I will explain it a fair bit...

    We showed Boyd could leave after one year. We showed we could get a same year contracted Schache because of home sickness. WCE tried to get Kelly after one year too. Going after a first year player isn't uncommon I guess I'm leading towards.

    Last year we did a medical on Ben King, presumably if Smith went earlier. Maybe he was 'plan a or b'. King also made comments hoping to get to the Dogs. Didn't happen with King going at pick 5. Obviously, he has a twin at St Kilda and family back here he'd maybe like to get to. He hasn't played yet.

    Lots of 'if's'...

    If we have something like pick 5-9 this year. If Ben is homesick. If we still rate him highly. If he still wants to play with us. If we have something else, a second round pick (draft points trade two 3rds into a ok 2nd, around 30's) (help them with a high academy pick) or a fringe player they might like, they've previously pursued Jong hard (Dale?). Offer him a 3 year deal (his second year with an effective 2 year extension). Offer them up our first rounder (a high pick) and the extra bit, and see what happens from there.

    It's expensive in terms of what's needed to pry him out, but the flip side there's still plenty of cap left to go after a quality free agent this year or next. But it would probably lock away our tall stocks and spine for a long time with Ugle-Hagan next year a strong possibility unless the AFEL screw us.

    I'm not betting on this happening, not with my money or even anyone else's money. It's as left field as I could come up with to get a talented young KPD not on the media landscape to contrast the options either recruit free agents vs out of contracted KPDs. But I wonder if it's worth seeing if any of those 'if's' are in play as he looks to be a player. An athletic 202cm KPD would be perfect with Young & Cordy that bit smaller.

    If they retain Sam Day with Thompson re-signing, there's not a blind refusal factor and I'd expect them to listen to offers, probably from St Kilda if they think of it. But if Sam Day leaves, then there's about less than zero chance King leaves under any circumstances I'd guess. If Martin or Wright leaves that could make things interesting again. But they're actually signing some so far this year which is a good sign for them.

    In all, just a thought bubble or discussion point.
    It's decent left field thinking although the AFL will flip if we of all clubs pinch a high profile tall after one year from an expansion club.

    If he was remotely gettable I'd seriously offer our first this year and next with second rounders coming back (2020 for sure, we want points).
    The one thing tall defenders have in their favour is that good ones aren't necessarily found at the pointy end of the draft though, admittedly the good ones found late tend to take a lot longer to develop.

    The other thing to throw in was a rumour on the Carlton BF board about the Bulldogs chasing one of their talls. Weitering?
    It would be a bold move and between Jones, Marchbank and Plowman they have the talls to cover him (before considering their kids).
    We really need to put out the 2020 first rounder as a trading chip and see what we can shake loose given Ugle-Hagen + Ewan McPherson + Cooper Craig-Peters available in 2020 means we may not have many live picks anyway.

    The last huge, game changing hail-mary for a highly rated young tall worked out well for us.
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  16. #27
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    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    I can't see the Ben King thing happening. Gold Coast seem to have finally pulled their act together and seem to have a buy in from their new draftees.

    The Carlton tall rumour is interesting, definitely worth inquiring.

    Collingwood look to have some huge salary cap issues looming, perhaps there is a lesser light we can prise free?

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    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Mofra View Post
    It's decent left field thinking although the AFL will flip if we of all clubs pinch a high profile tall after one year from an expansion club.

    If he was remotely gettable I'd seriously offer our first this year and next with second rounders coming back (2020 for sure, we want points).
    The one thing tall defenders have in their favour is that good ones aren't necessarily found at the pointy end of the draft though, admittedly the good ones found late tend to take a lot longer to develop.

    The other thing to throw in was a rumour on the Carlton BF board about the Bulldogs chasing one of their talls. Weitering?
    It would be a bold move and between Jones, Marchbank and Plowman they have the talls to cover him (before considering their kids).
    We really need to put out the 2020 first rounder as a trading chip and see what we can shake loose given Ugle-Hagen + Ewan McPherson + Cooper Craig-Peters available in 2020 means we may not have many live picks anyway.

    The last huge, game changing hail-mary for a highly rated young tall worked out well for us.
    Carlton could be interesting to trade with now, especially if the Adelaide first rounder they get is pick 14+. If we have a good single digit draft pick, and we we're ready to part with it last year, then maybe they're ripe for an offer on Weitering. Good age, good mover, very good size, can build a defence around him. So perhaps there's something to it.
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    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Quote Originally Posted by bulldogtragic View Post
    Carlton could be interesting to trade with now, especially if the Adelaide first rounder they get is pick 14+. If we have a good single digit draft pick, and we we're ready to part with it last year, then maybe they're ripe for an offer on Weitering. Good age, good mover, very good size, can build a defence around him. So perhaps there's something to it.
    He's also the softest player in the AFL and possibly of all time. If we thought Roughy being in the hands of the trainers every 5 minutes was frustrating then Weitering doing it after every contest will drive us all mad.

    Not willing to part with a pick inside 10 as a general rule anyway.
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    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Happy Days View Post
    He's also the softest player in the AFL and possibly of all time. If we thought Roughy being in the hands of the trainers every 5 minutes was frustrating then Weitering doing it after every contest will drive us all mad.

    Not willing to part with a pick inside 10 as a general rule anyway.
    As a rule, I agree. But if we can find a way into a long term KPD, ideally the left field Ben King concept, then I'd be open to do it. Looking at the tall lines we would be well set to build the next premiership team around:

    - Forward (3) - Naughton, Boyd (2nd/3rd ruck), Schache
    - Rucks (3) - English (another mid), Trengove (fwd/back), Sweet (back up)
    - Defence (4) - Cordy, Young, 2019 trade, Roberts (back up)
    - Potential now to 2020 (4) - Gardner (MSD), Ugle-Hagan, Stevens & McDonald

    Then go hard on free agent mids with the sizeble salary cap space still there. Kellett & MacPherson are smalls. Then focus the draft on talented mids who can make an impact. A big gorilla tamer KPD would be the last tall we'd need, so there's Sam Day & Astbury as FAs, or looking for someone in a targeted way. Although I do wonder what Bevo would want or demand this year from the trade period this year.
    I drank the slab that Bon Scott drunk
    I injected some of Hendrixs junk
    I booked a seat on Lynyrd Skynyrds plane
    Mama Cass's sandwich? Ate the same

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