As you may know, I created a thread about our draft points for next year. I'm not a fan of moving into deficit for the 2021 draft. I've been interested in the way Buddhist monks are taught in their monastery. Often put in positions to strongly argue against their beliefs and teaching with their lama. Either they find a flaw in their beliefs/teachings or despite the argument, or it confirms it. So this is my complete counter argument to trying to avoid a draft points deficit next year, it's more of a theoretical exercise.

We exploit the trade rules. The rules on future draft pick trading is limited to the next year. But because of circumstances, we can effectively trade two years of future draft picks. Giving us an advantage over the competition.

How? Because we have a shit ton of salary cap and a NGA next year going top 3. So let's say in round figure we need 3,000 points. But we trade out the first rounder. Instead of looking to secure a second rounder for next year, we turn it into pick 25, 27 or 28 (picks from Freo, Port & Hawks) as they have NGA/FS going first round. So without the first round and second rounder, we go into deficit by about 2,000 points. This in round terms costs us our 2021 1st & 2nd. But we use them this trade period.

What we are effectively doing is future pick trading for two years with the AFEL for the 2021 draft. We can't trade our 2021 1st & 2nd to a club, but we can to the AFEL (via deficit). A nice little exploitation of the rules. In that draft there's potentially Sam Darcy (ruck/fwd) and The West Twins (outside mids) for us and any NGAs. Reporting of next year's draft is that the first round is ok, but after that it drops off. So our 2020 1st is worth even more.

So we've decided to future picks our first, pass on a future second and let the AFEL take our 1st & 2nd in 2021. What does that mean in terms of personnel?

Keath & Bruce locked up. Next year's 1st rounder Moore/Howard. Papley and minor swaps in the second and third rounds for Pick 13 & McLean/Libba/Wally (if they want to go, I don't want to lose them but we need trade currency). Second rounder obtained of a Venables outside run/forward type.

The assumptions are Papley apparently happy to go to anywhere in Victoria (other than North). Collingwood want a first rounder this year. Our 2020 first could to Moore, than can hold it for its benefit next year or look to Geelong who might have three first rounders and trade, that's not our issue. Or Howard for a late first rounder next year's might help them with the rebuild.

Salary cap:

In:

$550,000 Keath
$600,000 Bruce
$600,000 Moore/Howard
$700,000 Papley
$300,000 Venbles (type)
$250,000 Draftees X 3 (later picks have lower salaries)
------------
$3,000,000
------------

Savings:

$1,800,000 salary cap space (conservative number - Boyd, Picken, Morris retirements and our banking)
$450,000 McLean/Libba/Wally type salary freed up
$250,000 Roberts (signed just after the premiership) delisted
$250,000 Webb delisted
$300,000 Dickson delisted
$200,000 Gowers (traded out, won't get a game with the ins)
-------------
$3,250,000 (more than enough dollars)
-------------


So money isn't an issue. Next year we still grab Ugle-Hagan, MacPherson, Stevens &/or Raak for an injection of elite/very good talent next year.

But this theory is rolling the dice that we can win a flag in the next two years. We are using the system, exploiting it really, by bringing about two years of trade and draft plundering and using 'after pay' to cover the cost. The side looks like (say McLean is the out):

B: Suckling Moore/Howard Wood
HB: Crozier Keath JJ
C: Hunter Dunkley Daniel
HF: Lloyd Bruce Schache
F: Papley Naughton Dale
R: English Bontempelli Macrae
I: B. Smith Lipinski Liberatore Venables/type
E: Cordy, Trengove, Wallis, Williams, Richards

Other: Le Young Duryea, West, La Young, Hayes, Cavarra, Greene, Khamis, Vandermeer, Porter, Sweet, Roarke?, Gardner?, Jong, Lynch (3 draft ins: ruck insurance, Kellett & upgrade La Young) (Ugle-Hagan, MacPherson, Stevens &/or Raak next year)

8 spots needed: (1) Boyd (2) Morris (3) Picken (4) Dickson (5) Roberts (6) Webb (7) McLean/other (8) Gowers

Bevo has said he wants to keep the list together. McLean/other & Gowers going might not sit well with Bevo. Unless someone comes hard for Jong, Gowers or Lynch and they want to take up an offer from another club, maybe Bevo isn't on board. Who knows?

Next year there's not too many issues. There's the extra cap (as above) to throw at Bailey Smith, Schache by reporting is on his Brisbane figure ($500,000) so that will be the same, Wood extended as a premiership captain and I doubt gets the same money. Suckling will retire. There will be a numerous delistings too. So I'm comfortable about money.


In conclusion, this theory permits a very aggressive player acquisition strategy in trades this year and then in priority access players next year. The cost catches up after two full seasons of trying to contend for another flag. That might be mitigated a bit if Sam Darcy (bottom age ruck/fwd next year at Oakleigh with Ugle-Hagan) & The Twins come good for the 2021 draft. We would be effectively trading two years in advance, which could be a strategic advantage over the competition.


So... Amass draft points next year and head into 2021 with a full (or near full) draft pick grouping well positioned to hit the draft or trade. Or... Go all out on trades this year, plunder priority players next year and use 'AFEL after pay' in 2021?